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Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

AERONET

Analyzing Source Apportioned Methane in Northern California During DISCOVER-AQ-CA Using Airborne Measurements and Model Simulations

This study analyzes source apportioned methane (CH4) emissions and atmospheric concentrations in northern California during the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign using airborne measurement data and model simulations. Source apportioned CH4 emissions from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) version 4.2 were applied in the 3-D chemical transport model GEOS-Chem and analyzed using airborne measurements taken as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment over the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and northern San Joaquin Valley (SJV). During the time period of the Discover-AQ-CA field campaign EDGAR inventory CH4 emissions were 5.30 Gg/day (Gg 1.0 109 grams) (equating to 1.9 103 Gg/yr) for all of California. According to EDGAR, the SFBA and northern SJV region contributes 30 of total emissions from California. Source apportionment analysis during this study shows that CH4 concentrations over this area of northern California are largely influenced by global emissions from wetlands and local/global emissions from gas and oil production and distribution, waste treatment processes, and livestock management. Model simulations, using EDGAR emissions, suggest that the model under-estimates CH4 concentrations in northern California (average normalized mean bias (NMB) -5 and linear regression slope 0.25). The largest negative biases in the model were calculated on days when hot spots of local emission sources were measured and atmospheric CH4 concentrations reached values 3.0 parts per million (model NMB -10). Sensitivity emission studies conducted during this research suggest that local emissions of CH4 from livestock management processes are likely the primary source of the negative model bias. These results indicate that a variety, and larger quantity, of measurement data needs to be obtained and additional research is necessary to better quantify source apportioned CH4 emissions in California and further the understanding of the physical processes controlling them.

Methane

Analysis of a general circulation model simulation of the atmospheric response to the observed sea surface temperature anomalies of January and February 1983

A new version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM is utilized to simulate the influence of an observed sea surface temperature anomaly on rainfall and atmospheric circulation. The model can reproduce many essential features of the observed tropical rainfall and circulation anomalies during January-February 1983. Particularly, the model simulates realistic patterns of tropical anomalies of sea level pressure, 200 mb geopotential heights, and horizontal winds at the 200 and 850 mb levels. The model-simulated tropical precipitation anomaly patterns appear realistic, although the precipitation is rather excessive and the atmosphere is too energetic.

Sud, Y. C.

Influence of Transport on Two-Dimensional Model Simulation. Tracer Sensitivity to 2-D Model Transport: Long Lived Tracers - 1

In this study, we examine the sensitivity of long lived tracers to changes in the base transport components in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric mean age, and increased the rate of removal of material from the stratosphere. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the mean age due to the greater recycling of air parcels through the middle atmosphere, via the residual circulation, before returning to the troposphere. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and produces significantly younger ages throughout the stratosphere. Simulations with very small tropical stratospheric K(sub yy) decreased the globally averaged age of air by as much as 25% in the middle and upper stratosphere, and resulted in substantially weaker vertical age gradients above 20 km in the extratropics. We found only very small stratospheric tracer sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause, and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion used in the model. We also investigated the transport influence on chemically active tracers and found a strong age-tracer correlation, both in concentration and calculated lifetimes. The base model transport gives the most favorable overall comparison with a variety of inert tracer observations, and provides a significant improvement over our previous 1995 model transport. Moderate changes to the base transport were found to provide modest agreement with some of the measurements. Transport scenarios with residence times ranging from moderately shorter to slightly longer relative to the base case simulated N2O lifetimes that were within the observational estimates of Volk et al. [1997]. However, only scenarios with rather fast transport rates were comparable with the Volk et al. estimates of CFCl3 lifetimes. This is inconsistent with model-measurement comparisons of mean age in which the base model or slightly slower transport rates compared the most favorably with balloon SF6 data. For all comparisons shown, large transport changes away from the base case resulted in simulations that were outside the range of measurements, and in many cases, far outside this range.

Fleming, Eric L.

A Mathematical Model for Vertical Attitude Takeoff and Landing (VATOL) Aircraft Simulation: Model Description Application - Volume 1

A mathematical model of a high performance airplane capable of vertical attitude takeoff and landing (VATOL) was developed. An off line digital simulation program incorporating this model was developed to provide trim conditions and dynamic check runs for the piloted simulation studies and support dynamic analyses of proposed VATOL configuration and flight control concepts. Development details for the various simulation component models and the application of the off line simulation program, Vertical Attitude Take-Off and Landing Simulation (VATLAS), to develop a baseline control system for the Vought SF-121 VATOL airplane concept are described.

Fortenbaugh, R. L.

Space Exploration Supply Chain Modeling, Simulation and Analysis Using the SCOR Model

sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond. Extend human presence across the solar system, starting with a human return to the Moon by the year 2020, in preparation for human exploration of Mars and other destinations. Develop the innovative technologies, knowledge, and infrastructure both to explore and to support decisions about the destinations for human exploration; and promote international and commercial participation in exploration to further U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests

space operations

AgMIP-Wheat Multi-Model Simulations on Climate Change Impact and Adaptation for Global Wheat

The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.

Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement

NASA Langley Distributed Propulsion VTOL Tilt-Wing Aircraft Testing, Modeling, Simulation, Control, and Flight Test Development

Control of complex Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) aircraft traversing from hovering to wing born flight mode and back poses notoriously difficult modeling, simulation, control, and flight-testing challenges. This paper provides an overview of the techniques and advances required to develop the GL-10 tilt-wing, tilt-tail, long endurance, VTOL aircraft control system. The GL-10 prototype's unusual and complex configuration requires application of state-of-the-art techniques and some significant advances in wind tunnel infrastructure automation, efficient Design Of Experiments (DOE) tunnel test techniques, modeling, multi-body equations of motion, multi-body actuator models, simulation, control algorithm design, and flight test avionics, testing, and analysis. The following compendium surveys key disciplines required to develop an effective control system for this challenging vehicle in this on-going effort.

Rothhaar, Paul M.

Estimating solar radiation for plant simulation models

Five algorithms producing daily solar radiation surrogates using daily temperatures and rainfall were evaluated using measured solar radiation data for seven U.S. locations. The algorithms were compared both in terms of accuracy of daily solar radiation estimates and terms of response when used in a plant growth simulation model (CERES-wheat). Requirements for accuracy of solar radiation for plant growth simulation models are discussed. One algorithm is recommended as being best suited for use in these models when neither measured nor satellite estimated solar radiation values are available.

Hodges, T.

Model simulations of possible electromagnetic induction effects at Magsat activities

Model simulations are used in a consideration of whether terrestrial induced-current magnetic field effects are significant for near-earth satellite observation, and the nature of the effect at satellite altitudes of lateral differences in the gross conductivity structure of the earth. It is shown that induction in a spherical earth by distant magnetospheric sources can contribute magnetic field fluctuations at Magsat orbit altitudes which are 30-40% of external field amplitudes. It is found that, when phenomenon dimensions are small by comparison with the earth's radius, the earth may be approximated by a plane, horizontal half-space by which electromagnetic energy is reflected with nearly 100% efficiency from the surface. This implies that while the total horizontal field is twice the source field when the source is above the satellite, it is reduced to values smaller than the source field when the source is below the satellite and tends to enhance gross electrical discontinuity signatures in the lithosphere.

Hermance, J. F.

A simulation model for the analysis of Space Station gas-phase trace contaminants

A simulation model for the analysis of gas-phase trace contaminants in the cabin air of the NASA Space Station Reference Configuration was developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model predicts changes in trace contaminant concentrations from both physical and chemical sources and sinks as a function of time. Simulations were performed in which values for relative humidity, temperature, radiation intensity, pressure, and initial species concentrations were constrained to values for these parameters measured and modeled in the continental tropics at the earth's surface. Species concentrations simulated using the model compared favorably with concentrations in the continental tropics which demonstrated that the chemical mechanism in the trace contaminant model approximates changes in atmospheric species concentrations. The sensitivity of initial species concentrations to producing changes in additional species concentrations was also assessed. Results from the model indicated that chemical reactions will be important in determining the composition of cabin air in the Space Station. It is anticipated that the trace contaminant model will be useful in assessing the impact of experiments and commercial operations on the composition of the cabin air in the Space Station.

Brewer, Dana A.

Aircraft observations and cloud-microwave radiative model simulations of a deep convective system

A 3D cloud model is used to simulate the storm structure of the June 29, 1986 storm system observed during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (Dodge et al., 1986), and the results are linked to a microwave radiative transfer model for simulating aircraft observations. The results of cloud and radiative model simulations are then compared with radar data and aircraft microwave observations, respectively. It is shown that the degree of agreement between model simulations and the aircraft microwave observations depends on the model-derived microphysics of cloud and precipitation. It is found that the calculated values of the brightness temperature (Tb) at 92 GHz are close to the observed temperatures, while the calculated Tb values at 18 and 37 GHz are lower than the observed Tb.

Yeh, H.-Y. M.

Automatic programming of simulation models

The objective of automatic programming is to improve the overall environment for describing the program. This improved environment is realized by a reduction in the amount of detail that the programmer needs to know and is exposed to. Furthermore, this improved environment is achieved by a specification language that is more natural to the user's problem domain and to the user's way of thinking and looking at the problem. The goal of this research is to apply the concepts of automatic programming (AP) to modeling discrete event simulation system. Specific emphasis is on the design and development of simulation tools to assist the modeler define or construct a model of the system and to then automatically write the corresponding simulation code in the target simulation language, GPSS/PC. A related goal is to evaluate the feasibility of various languages for constructing automatic programming simulation tools.

Schroer, Bernard J.

Intercomparison of Model Simulations of the Impact of 1997/98 El Nino on South American Summer Monsoon

The simulations of climatology and response of the South American summer monsoon (SASM) to the 1997/98 El Nino are investigated using six atmospheric general circulation models. Results show all models simulate the large-scale features of the SASM reasonably well. However, both stationary and seasonal components of the surface pressure are overestimated, resulting in an excessively strong SASM in the model climatology. The low-level northwesterly jet over eastern foothills of the Andes is not well resolved because of the coarse resolution of the models. Large rainfall simulation biases are found in association with the Andes and the Atlantic ITCZ, indicating model problems in handling steep mountains and parameterization of convective processes. The simulation of the 1997/98 El Nino impact on SASM is examined based on an ensemble of ten two-year (September 1996 - August 1998) integration. Results show that most models can simulate the large-scale tropospheric warming response over the tropical central Pacific, including the dynamic response of Rossby wave propagation of the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern that influences remote areas. Deficiencies are found in simulating the regional impacts over South America. Model simulation fails to capture the southeastward expansion of anomalously warm tropospheric air. As a result, the upper tropospheric anomalous high over the subtropical Andes is less pronounced, and the enhancement of subtropical westerly jet is displaced 5deg-10deg equatorward compared to the observed. Over the Amazon basin, the shift of Walker cell induced by El Nino is not well represented, showing anomalous easterlies in both upper and lower troposphere.

Zhou, Jiayu

The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

climate change

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley rising branch. Model results suggest that the narrowing of the Hadley cell ascent is also eddy-driven.

Li, Feng

Narrowing of the Upwelling Branch of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and Hadley Cell in Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of the 21st Century

Changes in the width of the upwelling branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and Hadley cell in the 21st Century are investigated using simulations from a coupled chemistry-climate model. In these model simulations the tropical upwelling region narrows in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. The narrowing of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is caused by an equatorward shift of Rossby wave critical latitudes and Eliassen-Palm flux convergence in the subtropical lower stratosphere. In the troposphere, the model projects an expansion of the Hadley cell's poleward boundary, but a narrowing of the Hadley cell's rising branch. Model results suggest that eddy forcing may also play a part in the narrowing of the rising branch of the Hadley cell.

Li, Feng