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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
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NASA NTRS2000

Evolution of South China Sea Summer Monsoon During SCSMEX-98: An Application of TRMM Data for Regional Hydro-Climate Studies

Evolution of South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon in May-June, 1998 is investigated by using NASA/Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data and the SCS Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) data. The five-day mean moisture budget over the SCS region, and TMI surface rain rate, winds and divergence are calculated for the periods of pre-monsoon, onset, mature, and break. Results show that the SCS monsoon onset is triggered by the southward-propagating mid-latitude frontal system and the eastward-propagating intraseasonal oscillations. The disastrous flooding over the Yangtze River Basin in 1998 is caused mainly by the massive moisture transport by the lower-tropospheric prevailed westerly winds associated with the depression over the Bay of Bengal. The TRMM PR data are used to calculate the vertical distribution of fractional cover of Corrected Z-factor. Before the onset, the fractional cover 1-2% of 20-30 dBz appears around 2 km, indicating marine status clouds, During the monsoon onset and mature, the factional cover 34% of 25-35 dBz occurs below 6 km, indicating strong convection. The factional cover 5% of 20 dBz is around 8 km, which is indicative of large stratiform ice clouds. Yangtze River (YR) floods occurred as a part of the evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon. The rain rate over the YR shows out of phase with rainfall over the SCS. The vertical structures and statistical properties of clouds over the YR are compared with those over the SCS.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics of the Regional Hydrologic Cycle

Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote sources of water for precipitation, based on the implementation of passive constituent tracers of water vapor (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. In this case, the major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In this approach, each WVT is associated with an evaporative source region, and tracks the water until it precipitates from the atmosphere. By assuming that the regional water is well mixed with water from other sources, the physical processes that act on the WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be computed within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. Furthermore, estimates of precipitation recycling can be compared with bulk diagnostic approaches. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional tracers, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic 2 regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In general, most North American land regions showed a positive correlation between evaporation and recycling ratio (except the Southeast United States) and negative correlations of recycling ratio with precipitation and moisture transport (except the Southwestern United States). The Midwestern local source is positively correlated with local evaporation, but it is not correlated with water vapor transport. This is contrary to bulk diagnostic estimates of precipitation recycling. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Local and Remote Sources of Precipitation during the 1993 Midwestern United States Flood

During June and July of 1993, devastating and persistent rainfall caused substantial damage in the Midwest United States primarily focused on the Mississippi River Basin. Above noma1 springtime rains primed the region for flooding. The resulting wet soil was thought to be a major source of water for the heavy summer precipitation. On the other hand, northward moisture transport was extremely intense during the summer. In this study, we have implemented passive tracers to diagnose the geographic source of water for precipitation, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVT), into the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) Data Assimilation System (DAS). The WVT diagnostics can produce detailed budgets of the geographical sources of water that precipitates in any region, and they consider physical and dynamical tendencies at the model time step. The 1993 summer has been reanalyzed with the new WVT diagnostics to better understand the local and remote source of water for precipitation during the flood. Because the DAS also uses observations of water in the atmospheric hydrologic budget, we will also evaluate the impact of the observations on the local and remote sources of water in the DAS.

Bosilovich, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability of Tropical Rainfall as Seen From TRMM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Version 5 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and examine changes in new TRMM Version 6 retrievals. To place these results in a tropical water balance perspective we also examine interannual variations in evaporation over the tropical oceans made from TRMM and SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) measurements of surface winds and humidity. Evaporation estimates from reanalysis and several global model experiments will also be compared to the TRMM findings and evaluated for consistency. The ability to detect regional shifts in freshwater flux over the oceans (equivalently, integrated moisture convergence) and moisture transport will be discussed.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Anticipated Improvements to Net Surface Freshwater Fluxes from GPM

Evaporation and precipitation over the oceans play very important roles in the global water cycle, upper-ocean heat budget, ocean dynamics, and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. In the conventional representation of the terrestrial water cycle, the assumed role of the oceans is to act as near-infinite reservoirs of water with the main drivers of the water cycle being land- atmosphere interactions in which excess precipitation (P) over evaporation (E) is returned to the oceans as surface runoff and baseflow. Whereas this perspective is valid for short space and time scales -- fundamental principles, available observed estimates, and results from models indicate that the oceans play a far more important role in the large-scale water cycle at seasonal and longer timescales. Approximately 70-80% of the total global evaporation and precipitation occurs over oceans. Moreover, latent heat release into the atmosphere over the oceans is the major heat source driving global atmospheric circulations, with the moisture transported by circulations from oceans to continents being the major source of water precipitating over land. Notably, the major impediment in understanding and modeling the oceans role in the global water cycle is the lack of reliable net surface freshwater flux estimates (E - P fluxes) at the salient spatial and temporal resolutions, i.e., consistent coupled weekly to monthly E - P gridded datasets.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Moving water to South America as observed from space

The approximate balance of the mass change rate measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) with the moisture influx across the entire coastline less climatological river discharge for South America (SA), in agreement with the conservation principle, bolsters not only the credibility of the spacebased measurements, but supports the characterization of ocean's influence on the annual variation of continental water balance. The moisture transport integrated over the depth of the atmosphere is estimated using measurements by QuikSCAT and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. The large-scale geographic patterns of precipitation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the mass change rate were found to follow similar annual changes over South America.

monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2008

Warming of the Indian Ocean Threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, but could be Mitigated by Agricultural Development

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high and declining per capita agricultural capacity retards progress towards Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation identify another problematic trend. Main growing season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus late 20th century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling millions of undernourished people as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people. On the other hand, modest increases in per capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.

Funk, Chris↗
NASA NTRS2009

Declining Global Per Capita Agricultural Production and Warming Oceans Threaten Food Security

Despite accelerating globalization, most people still eat food that was grown locally. Developing countries with weak purchasing power tend to import as little food as possible from global markets, suffering consumption deficits during times of high prices or production declines. Local agricultural production, therefore, is critical to both food security and economic development among the rural poor. The level of local agricultural production, in turn, will be controlled by the amount and quality of arable land, the amount and quality of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, seeds, pesticides, etc.), as well as farm-related technology, practices, and policies. In this paper we discuss several emerging threats to global and regional food security, including declining yield gains that are failing to keep up with population increases, and warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and its impact on rainfall. If yields continue to grow more slowly than per capita harvested area, parts of Africa, Asia, and Central and Southern America will experience substantial declines in per capita cereal production. Global per capita cereal production will potentially decline by 14 percent between 2008 and 2030. Climate change is likely to further affect food production, particularly in regions that have very low yields due to lack of technology. Drought, caused by anthropogenic warming in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, may also reduce 21 st century food availability by disrupting Indian Ocean moisture transports and tilting the 21 st century climate toward a more El Nino-like state. The impacts of these circulation changes over Asia remain uncertain. For Africa, however, Indian Ocean warming appears to have already reduced main growing season rainfall along the eastern edge of tropical Africa, from southern Somalia to northern parts of the Republic of South Africa. Through a combination of quantitative modeling of food balances and an examination of climate change, we present an analysis of emerging threats to global food security.

Funk, Chris C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

Avery, Melody A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The 2010 Pakistan Flood and Russian Heat Wave: Teleconnection of Hydrometeorological Extremes

In this paper, preliminary results are presented showing that the two record-setting extreme events during 2010 summer (i.e., the Russian heat wave-wildfires and Pakistan flood) were physically connected. It is found that the Russian heat wave was associated with the development of an extraordinarily strong and prolonged extratropical atmospheric blocking event in association with the excitation of a large-scale atmospheric Rossby wave train spanning western Russia, Kazakhstan, and the northwestern China-Tibetan Plateau region. The southward penetration of upper-level vorticity perturbations in the leading trough of the Rossby wave was instrumental in triggering anomalously heavy rain events over northern Pakistan and vicinity in mid- to late July. Also shown are evidences that the Russian heat wave was amplified by a positive feedback through changes in surface energy fluxes between the atmospheric blocking pattern and an underlying extensive land region with below-normal soil moisture. The Pakistan heavy rain events were amplified and sustained by strong anomalous southeasterly flow along the Himalayan foothills and abundant moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal in connection with the northward propagation of the monsoonal intraseasonal oscillation.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Precipitation Response Over the Continental United States to Cold Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

The dominant pattern of annual mean SST variability in the Pacific (in its cold phase) produces pronounced precipitation deficits over the continental United States (U.S.) throughout the annual cycle. This study investigates the physical and dynamical processes through which the cold Pacific pattern affects the U.S. precipitation, particularly the causes for the peak dry impacts in fall, as well as the nature of the differences between the summer and fall responses. Results, based on observations and reanalyses, show that the peak precipitation deficit over the U.S. during fall is primarily due to reduced atmospheric moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern U.S., and secondarily due to a reduction in local evaporation from land-atmosphere feedback. The former is associated with a strong and systematic low-level northeasterly flow anomaly over the southeastern U.S. that counteracts the northwest branch of the climatological flow associated with the north Atlantic subtropical high. The above northeasterly anomaly is maintained by both diabatic heating anomalies in the nearby Intra-American Seas and diabatic cooling anomalies in the tropical Pacific. In contrast, the modest summertime precipitation deficit over the U.S. is mainly the result of local land-atmosphere feedback; the rather weak and disorganized atmospheric circulation anomalies over and to the south of the U.S. make little contribution. An evaluation of NSIPP-1 AGCM simulations shows it to be deficient in simulating the warm season tropical convection responses over the Intra-American Seas to the cold Pacific pattern and thereby the precipitation responses over the U.S., a problem that appears to be common to many AGCMs.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparing Evaporative Sources of Terrestrial Precipitation and Their Extremes in MERRA Using Relative Entropy

A quasi-isentropic back trajectory scheme is applied to output from the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications and a land-only replay with corrected precipitation to estimate surface evaporative sources of moisture supplying precipitation over every ice-free land location for the period 1979-2005. The evaporative source patterns for any location and time period are effectively two dimensional probability distributions. As such, the evaporative sources for extreme situations like droughts or wet intervals can be compared to the corresponding climatological distributions using the method of relative entropy. Significant differences are found to be common and widespread for droughts, but not wet periods, when monthly data are examined. At pentad temporal resolution, which is more able to isolate floods and situations of atmospheric rivers, values of relative entropy over North America are typically 50-400 larger than at monthly time scales. Significant differences suggest that moisture transport may be the key to precipitation extremes. Where evaporative sources do not change significantly, it implies other local causes may underlie the extreme events.

Climatological Distributions↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗
NASA NTRS2018

Southeast Greenland Winter Precipitation Strongly Linked to the Icelandic Low Position

Greenland's largest precipitation flux occurs in its southeast (SE) region during the winter, controlled primarily by easterly winds and frequent cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic. Several studies have attempted to link SE Greenland precipitation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but results are inconsistent. This work uses reanalysis, automatic weather station data, and regional climate model output to show that the east-west position of the Icelandic low is a better predictor of SE Greenland precipitation (average correlation of r equals -0.48 in DJF (December January February)) than climate indices such as the NAO (r equals -0.06 in DJF). In years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, moisture transport increases up to approximately 40 percent (or up to 40 kilograms per meter per second) off the SE Greenland coast compared to when the low is in an extreme east position. Furthermore, in years when the Icelandic low is positioned extremely west, storm track density and intensity increase just off the SE coast of Greenland. Thus, the Icelandic low's longitudinal position dominates SE Greenland ice sheet's wintertime precipitation, a positive term in the ice sheet mass balance. Given SE Greenland's importance in the overall ice sheet mass balance, the position of the Icelandic low is therefore important for making projections of future sea level.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2018

Recent Rainfall Decline in West Africa Due to Enhanced Biomass Burning and Dust Emission

Rainfall in West Africa during boreal summer is primarily controlled by the low-level southerly monsoon flow that transports moisture from the Gulf of Guinea to the region and the African Easterly Jet that modulates the convective systems. However, the role of aerosols in rainfall variability of this region, despite the large emissions of dust and black carbon in Africa, is not well-understood. Our study reveals a decline in precipitation over Southern West Africa (SWA) in the past two decades that its trend and interannual variability present an indirect relationship with the aerosols loadings. Examining the local and remote sources of aerosols, we found that the latter have a larger contribution. We have used MERRA-2 large scale atmospheric dynamics and physics data to determine the mechanisms responsible for aerosol-rainfall interactions in the region. Our results have important implications for the people and ecosystem as the increasing rates of land use change, deforestation and urbanization in the continent are expected to enhance the aerosols. This will result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of the extreme events including droughts.

Dezfuli, Amin↗
NASA NTRS2018

TPSAS-NF1676L-30053-DND

The 2016-17 Arctic sea ice growth season (October-March) exhibited one of the lowest end-of-season sea ice volume and extent of any year since 1979. An analysis of MERRA2 atmospheric reanalysis data and CERES radiative flux data reveals that a record warm and moist Arctic atmosphere supported the reduced sea ice growth through two pathways. First, numerous regional episodes of increased atmospheric temperature and moisture, transported from lower latitudes, increased the cumulative energy input from downwelling longwave surface fluxes. Second, in those same episodes, the efficiency that the atmosphere cooled radiatively to space was reduced, increasing the amount of energy retained in the Arctic atmosphere and reradiated back toward the surface. Overall, the Arctic radiative cooling efficiency shows a decreasing trend since 2000. The results presented highlight the increasing importance of atmospheric forcing on sea ice variability demonstrating that episodic Arctic atmospheric rivers, regions of elevated poleward water vapor transport, and the subsequent surface energy budget response is a critical mechanism actively contributing to the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

Bradley Hegyi↗
NASA NTRS2020

Effect of Irrigation on Humid Heat Extremes

Most studies of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing focus on its cooling effects. However, irrigation also increases humidity, and so may not ameliorate humid heat and its extremes. We analyzed global climate model results over hot locations and seasons at high temporal resolution to estimate the impact of irrigation on humid heat extremes, quantified as different percentiles of wet-bulb temperature (T(sub w)), under contemporary conditions. We found that although irrigation reduced temperature, the median and higher percentiles of T(sub w) on average did not decrease. Increases in T(sub w) percentile values and increases in frequency of dangerous T(sub w) of several days per year due to irrigation were found in some densely populated regions, including the central United States and the Middle East, while the Ganges basin saw reduced T(sub w). Changes in T(sub w) were partly associated with the differential regional impacts of irrigation on moisture transport. These results underline the importance of considering impacts of climate forcings on humidity as well as temperature in evaluating associated effects on heat extremes.

Irrigation↗