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NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Influence of Coronal Abundance Variations

The PI of this project was Jeff Scargle of NASA/Ames. Co-I's were Alma Connors of Eureka Scientific/Wellesley, and myself. Part of the work was subcontracted to Eureka Scientific via SAO, with Vinay Kashyap as PI. This project was originally assigned grant number NCC2-1206, and was later changed to NCC2-1350 for administrative reasons. The goal of the project was to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of "collaborators" including some at SA0 (Aneta Siemiginowska, Peter Freeman) and at the Harvard Statistics department (David van Dyk, Rostislav Protassov, Xiao-li Meng, Epaminondas Sourlas, et al). We have developed a new tool to reliably measure the metallicities of thermal plasma. It is unfeasible to obtain high-resolution grating spectra for most stars, and one must make the best possible determination based on lower-resolution, CCD-type spectra. It has been noticed that most analyses of such spectra have resulted in measured metallicities that were significantly lower than when compared with analyses of high- resolution grating data where available (see, e.g., Brickhouse et al., 2000, ApJ 530,387). Such results have led to the proposal of the existence of so-called Metal Abundance Deficient, or "MAD" stars (e.g., Drake, J.J., 1996, Cool Stars 9, ASP Conf.Ser. 109, 203). We however find that much of these analyses may be systematically underestimating the metallicities, and using a newly developed method to correctly treat the low-counts regime at the high-energy tail of the stellar spectra (van Dyk et al. 2001, ApJ 548,224), have found that the metallicities of these stars are generally comparable to their photospheric values. The results were reported at the AAS (Sourlas, Yu, van Dyk, Kashyap, and Drake, 2000, BAAS 196, v32, #54.02), and at the conference on Statistical Challenges in Modem Astronomy (Sourlas, van Dyk, Kashyap, Drake, and Pease, 2003, SCMA 111, Eds. E.D.Feigelson, G.J.Babu, New York:Springer, p489-490). We also described the limitations of one of the most egregiously misused and misapplied statistical tests in astrophysical literature, the F-test for verifying model components (Protassov, van Dyk, Connors, Kashyap, and Siemiginowska, 2002, ApJ, 571,545). Indeed, a search through the ApJ archives turned up 170 papers in the 5 previous years that used the F-test explicitly in some form or the other, and with the vast majority of them not using it correctly! Indeed, looking at just 4 issues of the ApJ in 2001, we found 13 instances of its use, of which nine were demonstrably incorrect. Clearly, it is difficult to understate the importance of this issue. We also worked on speeding up Bayes Blocks and Sparse Bayes Blocks algorithms to make them more tractable for large searches. We also supported staistics students and postdocs in both explicit physics- model-based (spectra with tens of thousands of atomic lines) and "model-free" -- i.e. non-parametric or semi-parametric -- algorithms. Work on using more of the latter is just beginning; while using multi-scale methods for Poisson imaging has come to hition. In fact, "An Image Restoration Technique with Error Estimates", by D. Esch, A. Connors, M. Karovska, and D. van Dyk, was published by ApJ (Esch et a1.2004, ApJ, 610, 1213). The code has been delivered to M. Karovska for CXC; and is available for beta-testing upon request. The other large project we worked on was on the self-consistent modeling of logN-logs curves in the Poisson limit. logN-logs curves are a fundamental tool in the study of source populations, luminosity functions, and cosmological parameters. However, their determination is hampered by statistical effects such as the Eddington bias, incompleteness due to detection efficiency, faint source flux fluctuations, etc. We have develed a new and powerful method using the full Poisson machinery that allows us to model the logN-logs distribution of X-ray sources in a self-consistent manner. Because we properly account for all the above statistical effects, our modeling is valid over the full range of the data, and not just for strong sources, as is normally done. Using a Bayesian approach and modeling the fluxes with known functional forms such as simple or broken power-laws, and conditioning the expected photon counts on the fluxes, the background contamination, effective area, detector vignetting, and detection probability, we can delve deeply into the low counts regime and extend the usefulness of medium sensitivity surveys such as ChAMP by orders of magnitude. The built-in flexibility of the algorithm also allows a simultaneous analysis of multiple datasets. We have applied this analysis to a set a Chandra observations (Sourlas, Kashyap, Zezas, van Dyk, 2004, HEAD #8, #16.32)

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Buckling of Carbon Nanotube-Reinforced Polymer Laminated Composite Materials Subjected to Axial Compression and Shear Loadings

A multi-scale method to predict the stiffness and stability properties of carbon nanotube-reinforced laminates has been developed. This method is used in the prediction of the buckling behavior of laminated carbon nanotube-polyethylene composites formed by stacking layers of carbon nanotube-reinforced polymer with the nanotube alignment axes of each layer oriented in different directions. Linking of intrinsic, nanoscale-material definitions to finite scale-structural properties is achieved via a hierarchical approach in which the elastic properties of the reinforced layers are predicted by an equivalent continuum modeling technique. Solutions for infinitely long symmetrically laminated nanotube-reinforced laminates with simply-supported or clamped edges subjected to axial compression and shear loadings are presented. The study focuses on the influence of nanotube volume fraction, length, orientation, and functionalization on finite-scale laminate response. Results indicate that for the selected laminate configurations considered in this study, angle-ply laminates composed of aligned, non-functionalized carbon nanotube-reinforced lamina exhibit the greatest buckling resistance with 1% nanotube volume fraction of 450 nm uniformly-distributed carbon nanotubes. In addition, hybrid laminates were considered by varying either the volume fraction or nanotube length through-the-thickness of a quasi-isotropic laminate. The ratio of buckling load-to-nanotube weight percent for the hybrid laminates considered indicate the potential for increasing the buckling efficiency of nanotube-reinforced laminates by optimizing nanotube size and proportion with respect to laminate configuration.

Riddick, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data sets (or cloud library) stored at Goddard.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

Model-Based Self-Tuning Multiscale Method for Combustion Control

A multi-scale representation of the combustor dynamics was used to create a self-tuning, scalable controller to suppress multiple instability modes in a liquid-fueled aero engine-derived combustor operating at engine-like conditions. Its self-tuning features designed to handle the uncertainties in the combustor dynamics and time-delays are essential for control performance and robustness. The controller was implemented to modulate a high-frequency fuel valve with feedback from dynamic pressure sensors. This scalable algorithm suppressed pressure oscillations of different instability modes by as much as 90 percent without the peak-splitting effect. The self-tuning logic guided the adjustment of controller parameters and converged quickly toward phase-lock for optimal suppression of the instabilities. The forced-response characteristics of the control model compare well with those of the test rig on both the frequency-domain and the time-domain.

Le, Dzu, K.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Automated, on-board terrain analysis for precision landings

Advances in space robotics technology hinge to a large extent upon the development and deployment of sophisticated new vision-based methods for automated in-space mission operations and scientific survey. To this end, we have developed a new concept for automated terrain analysis that is based upon a generic image enhancement platform|multi-scale retinex (MSR) and visual servo (VS) processing. This pre-conditioning with the MSR and the vs produces a "canonical" visual representation that is largely independent of lighting variations, and exposure errors. Enhanced imagery is then processed with a biologically inspired two-channel edge detection process, followed by a smoothness based criteria for image segmentation. Landing sites can be automatically determined by examining the results of the smoothness-based segmentation which shows those areas in the image that surpass a minimum degree of smoothness. Though the msr has proven to be a very strong enhancement engine, the other elements of the approach|the vs, terrain map generation, and smoothness-based segmentation|are in early stages of development. Experimental results on data from the Mars Global Surveyor show that the imagery can be processed to automatically obtain smooth landing sites. In this paper, we describe the method used to obtain these landing sites, and also examine the smoothness criteria in terms of the imager and scene characteristics. Several examples of applying this method to simulated and real imagery are shown.

Rahman, Zia-ur↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and A Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CFWs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999). In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

Micromechanics Modeling of Functionally Graded Interphase Regions in Carbon Nanotube-Polymer Composites

The effective elastic properties of a unidirectional carbon fiber/epoxy lamina in which the carbon fibers are coated with single-walled carbon nanotubes are modeled herein through the use of a multi-scale method involving the molecular dynamics/equivalent continuum and micromechanics methods. The specific lamina representative volume element studied consists of a carbon fiber surrounded by a region of epoxy containing a radially varying concentration of carbon nanotubes which is then embedded in the pure epoxy matrix. The variable concentration of carbon nanotubes surrounding the carbon fiber results in a functionally graded interphase region as the properties of the interphase region vary according to the carbon nanotube volume fraction. Molecular dynamics and equivalent continuum methods are used to assess the local effective properties of the carbon nanotube/epoxy comprising the interphase region. Micromechanics in the form of the Mori-Tanaka method are then applied to obtain the global effective properties of the graded interphase region wherein the carbon nanotubes are randomly oriented. Finally, the multi-layer composite cylinders micromechanics approach is used to obtain the effective lamina properties from the lamina representative volume element. It was found that even very small quantities of carbon nanotubes (0.36% of lamina by volume) coating the surface of the carbon fibers in the lamina can have a significant effect (8% increase) on the transverse properties of the lamina (E22, k23, G23 and G12) with almost no affect on the lamina properties in the fiber direction (E11 and v12).

Seidel, Gary D.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Unsteady Flow Simulation of High-speed Turbopumps

Computation of high-speed hydrodynamics requires high-fidelity simulation to resolve flow features involving transient flow, cavitation, tip vortex and multiple scales of unsteady fluctuations. One example of this type in aerospace is related to liquid-fueled rocket turbopump. Rocket turbopumps operate under severe conditions at very high rotational speeds typically at thousands of rpm. For example, the Shuttle orbiter low-pressure-fuel-turbopump creates transient flow features associated with reverse flows, tip clearance effects, secondary flows, vortex shedding, junction flows, and cavitation effects. Flow unsteadiness originating from the orbiter Low-Pressure-Fuel-Turbopump (LPFTP) inducer is one of the major contributors to the high frequency cyclic loading that results in high cycle fatigue damage to the flow liners just upstream of the LPFTP. The reverse flow generated at the tip of the inducer blades travels upstream and interacts with the bellows cavity. Simulation procedure for this type high-speed hydrodynamic problems requires a method for quantifying multi-scale and multi-phase flow as well as an efficient high-end computing strategy. The current paper presents a high-fidelity computational procedure for unsteady hydrodynamic problems using a high-speed liquid-fueled rocket turbopump.

Kiris, Cetin C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA Satellite and field campaign cloud related data sets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. Also we have implemented a Land Information System (LIS that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models into the MMF. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) This modeling system has been applied and tested its performance for two different climate scenarios, El Nino (1998) and La Nina (1999). The coupled new modeling system produced more realistic propagation and intensity of tropical rainfall systems and intraseasonal oscillations, and diurnal variation of precipitation that are very difficult to forecast using even the state-of-the-art GCMs. In this talk I will present: (1) a brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (both Microphysical and land processes) and (2) The Goddard MMF and the Major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF) and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2003

Satellite remote sensing of landscape freeze/thaw state dynamics for complex Topography and Fire Disturbance Areas Using multi-sensor radar and SRTM digital elevation models

We characterize differences in radar-derived freeze/thaw state, examining transitions over complex terrain and landscape disturbance regimes. In areas of complex terrain, we explore freezekhaw dynamics related to elevation, slope aspect and varying landcover. In the burned regions, we explore the timing of seasonal freeze/thaw transition as related to the recovering landscape, relative to that of a nearby control site. We apply in situ biophysical measurements, including flux tower measurements to validate and interpret the remotely sensed parameters. A multi-scale analysis is performed relating high-resolution SAR backscatter and moderate resolution scatterometer measurements to assess trade-offs in spatial and temporal resolution in the remotely sensed fields.

synthetic aperture radars (SARs)↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and A Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2007

Elastic Response and Failure Studies of Multi-Wall Carbon Nanotube Twisted Yarns

Experimental data on the stress-strain behavior of a polymer multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) yarn composite are used to motivate an initial study in multi-scale modeling of strength and stiffness. Atomistic and continuum length scale modeling methods are outlined to illustrate the range of parameters required to accurately model behavior. The carbon nanotubes yarns are four-ply, twisted, and combined with an elastomer to form a single-layer, unidirectional composite. Due to this textile structure, the yarn is a complicated system of unique geometric relationships subjected to combined loads. Experimental data illustrate the local failure modes induced by static, tensile tests. Key structure-property relationships are highlighted at each length scale indicating opportunities for parametric studies to assist the selection of advantageous material development and manufacturing methods.

Gates, Thomas S.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling of Interfacial Modification Effects on Thermal Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube Composites

The effect of functionalization of carbon nanotubes on the thermal conductivity of nanocomposites has been studied using a multi-scale modeling approach. These results predict that grafting linear hydrocarbon chains to the surface of a single wall carbon nanotube with covalent chemical bonds should result in a significant increase in the thermal conductivity of these nanocomposites. This is due to the decrease in the interfacial thermal (Kapitza) resistance between the single wall carbon nanotube and the surrounding polymer matrix upon chemical functionalization. The nanocomposites studied here consist of single wall carbon nanotubes in a bulk poly(ethylene vinyl acetate) matrix. The nanotubes are functionalized by end-grafting linear hydrocarbon chains of varying length to the surface of the nanotube. The effect which this functionalization has on the interfacial thermal resistance is studied by molecular dynamics simulation. Interfacial thermal resistance values are calculated for a range of chemical grafting densities and with several chain lengths. These results are subsequently used in an analytical model to predict the resulting effect on the bulk thermal conductivity of the nanocomposite.

Clancy, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX): A Core Element for the Asian Monsoon Year (2008-2009)

The objective of the Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is to unravel the physical mechanisms and multi-scale interactions associated with aerosol-monsoon water cycle in the Asian Indo-Pacific region towards improved prediction of rainfall in land regions of the Asian monsoon. JAMEX will be planned as a five-year (2007-201 1) multi-national aerosol-monsoon research project, aimed at promoting collaboration, partnership and alignment of ongoing and planned national and international programs. Two coordinated special observing periods (SOP), covering the pre-monsoon (April-May) and the monsoon (June-August) periods is tentatively targeted for 2008 and 2009. The major work on validation and reference site coordination will take place in 2007 through the spring of 2008. A major science workshop is planned after SOP-I1 in 2010. Modeling and satellite data utilization studies will continue throughout the entire period to help in design of the observation arrays and measurement platforms for SOPS. The tentative time schedule, including milestones and research activities is shown in Fig. 1. One of the unique aspects of JAMEX is that it stems from grass-root scientific and societal imperatives, and it bridges a gap in existing national and international research programs. Currently we have identified 10 major national and international projects/programs separately for aerosols and monsoon research planned in the next five years in China, India, Japan, Italy, and the US, that could be potential contributors or partners with JAMEX. These include the Asian-Indo- Pacific Ocean (AIPO) Project and Aerosol Research Project from China, Monsoon Asian Hydro- Atmospheric Science Research and predication Initiative (MAHASRI) from Japan, Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) and Severe Thunderstorm: Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) from India, Share-Asia from Italy, Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC), Pacific Aerosol-Cloud-Dust Experiment (PACDEX), East Asia Study of Tropospheric Aerosol: an International Regional Experiment (East-AIRE), and Radiation Aerosol Joint Observations - Monsoon Experiments over the Gangetic Himalayas Area (Rajo-Megha: dust cloud in Sanskrit) from the US, and Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study (MAIR) under the Earth Systems I Science Partnership (ESSP) and WCRP. For JAMEX to succeed, it is crucial for an international body, such as CEOP or an organization under WCRP to provide the science oversight, data policy and stewardship, and to promote collaboration and partnership among national programs. It makes eminent sense for WCRP to expand the concept and the prototype proposed by JAMEX to include all monsoon countries to expand AMY08-09 into an International Monsoon Era (2008- 2013). Such an establishment followed by establishment of an international body for science oversight, and data stewardship will go a long way in promoting coordination and connection among various existing monsoon research programs within WCRP, and with burgeoning national programs on monsoon and aerosol research.

Lau, William K.M.↗