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DOE OSTI2025

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have ranked as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study we apply a fixed-constraint storyline approach that holds storm tracks and initial conditions constant to probe future TC intensity in the North Atlantic Basin. First, we simulate 618 historical TC events using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep-learning intensity model. Next, we apply warming signals derived from eight CMIP6 climate scenarios and rerun each event to explore how intensities respond across scenarios. Finally, we develop an interactive dashboard that allows users to explore individual storm simulations and the scenario-modified environmental drivers. Together, this dataset and tool provide a clear, illustrative way to investigate how TC intensity responds to changes in air-sea state.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data for Resilience and Reliability [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Planning for Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast" focuses on strategies for entities in the Southeast to quickly recover from impacts to energy infrastructure caused by extreme events, such as severe weather and natural disasters. This presentation focuses on the data available related to energy disruptions. The workshop is on April 23, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

E2C Cohort on Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast: Trade-Offs and Feasibility of Energy Sector Investment for Community Resilience [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Planning for Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast" focuses on strategies for entities in the Southeast to quickly recover from impacts to energy infrastructure caused by extreme events, such as severe weather and natural disasters. This presentation focuses on the tradeoffs and relative costs of different strategies to improve outcomes from these extreme events. The workshop is on May 21, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Utilities' Role in Major Grid Disruptions [Slides]

The Energy to Communities (E2C) peer-learning cohort program provides technical assistance to groups of 15 community entities around a common energy topic over the course of 6 months. Every month, participants join a virtual meeting where they hear from experts and exchange strategies and best practices with their peers. This cohort, "Planning for Major Energy Disruptions in the Southeast" focuses on strategies for entities in the Southeast to quickly recover from impacts to energy infrastructure caused by extreme events, such as severe weather and natural disasters. This presentation focuses on the role of utilities in preparing for and responding to major energy disruptions. The workshop is on April 23, 2026.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1977

A space-based public service platform for terrestrial rescue operations

The space-based Public Service Platform (PSP) is a multibeam, high-gain communications relay satellite that can provide a variety of functions for a large number of people on earth equipped with extremely small, very low cost transceivers. This paper describes the PSP concept, the rationale used to derive the concept, the criteria for selecting specific communication functions to be performed, and the advantages of performing such functions via satellite. The discussion focuses on the benefits of using a PSP for natural disaster warning; control of attendant rescue/assistance operations; and rescue of people in downed aircraft, aboard sinking ships, lost or injured on land.

Fleisig, R.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Technology transfer of remote sensing technology

The basic philosophy and some current activities of MSFC Technology Transfer with regard to remote sensing technology are briefly reviewed. Among the problems that may be alleviated through such technology transfer are the scarcity of energy and mineral resources, the alteration of the environment by man, unpredictable natural disasters, and the effect of unanticipated climatic change on agricultural productivity.

Smith, A. D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Global considerations for implementation of telemedicine

In Dec. 1989, the United Nations proclaimed the Decade 1990-1999 as the International Decade for Natural Disasters Reduction (IDNDR). The Decade identified a number of research programs. IDNDR, provides a unique opportunity to explore the potential offered by the emerging technologies, and to promote, develop, and support those technologies deemed adequate to make the next century a safer one, especially in the poorest countries of the world. But all this improvement cannot be accomplished in a vacuum. We must begin now to eliminate pitfalls and illusions. A new attitude must emerge. In the scope of reducing human damages resulting from disasters, we must reconsider the cross-cultural understanding, and reach a real awareness which combines humility with a sense of relativeness. Promoting the right context is essential to the mandate of the Decade.

Lechat, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Use of low orbital satellite communications systems for humanitarian programs

Communication and information exchange play a decisive role in progress and social development. However, in many parts of the world the communication infrastructure is inadequate and the capacity for on-line exchange of information may not exist. This is true of underdeveloped countries, remote and relatively inaccessible regions, sites of natural disasters, and of all cases where the resources needed to create complex communication systems are limited. The creation of an inexpensive space communications system to service such areas is therefore a high priority task. In addition to a relatively low-cost space segment, an inexpensive space communications systems requires a large number of ground terminals, which must be relatively inexpensive, energy efficient (using power generated by storage batteries, or solar arrays, etc.), small in size, and must not require highly expert maintenance. The ground terminals must be portable, and readily deployable. Communications satellites in geostationary orbit at altitudes of about 36,000 km are very expensive and require complex and expensive ground stations and launch vehicles. Given current technology, it is categorically impossible to develop inexpensive satellite systems with portable ground terminals using such satellites. To solve the problem of developing an inexpensive satellite communications system that can operate with relatively small ground stations, including portable terminals, we propose to use a system with satellites in low Earth orbit, at an altitude of 900-1500 km. Because low orbital satellites are much closer to the Earth than geostationary ones and require vastly less energy expenditure by the satellite and ground terminals for transmission of messages, a system using them is relatively inexpensive. Such a system could use portable ground terminals no more complex than ordinary mobile police radios.

Vlasov, Vladimir N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Almaz

The basic data of the automatic space station ALMAZ-1B is overviewed, including the orbit parameters and maximum power. The principal technical characteristics of its remote sensing equipment is listed for the synthetic aperture and side-looking radar, optoelectronic equipment for stereophotography, high-resolution electronic scanner, middle-resolution optomechanical scanner, spectroradiometer for ocean satellite monitoring, and information transmission and reception. The main objectives and uses of the ALMAZ-1B information are cartography, land monitoring, geology, ecological monitoring, oceanology, pilotage, fishery, and information supply during an emergency such as controlling situation in natural disasters.

Viter, V.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Primary studies of Chinese spaceborne SAR

The primary studies on spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) in China are discussed. The SAR will be launched aboard a Chinese satellite and operated at L-band with HH polarization. The purpose of the mission in consideration is dedicated to resources and environment uses, especially to natural disaster monitoring. The ground resolution is designed as 25 m x 25 m for detailed mode and 100 m x 100 m for wide scan-SAR mode. The off-nadir angle can be varied from 20 to 40 deg. The key system concepts are introduced.

Wang, Zhen-Song↗

NASA NTRS1994

The Global Emergency Observation and Warning System

Based on an extensive characterization of natural hazards, and an evaluation of their impacts on humanity, a set of functional technical requirements for a global warning and relief system was developed. Since no technological breakthroughs are required to implement a global system capable of performing the functions required to provide sufficient information for prevention, preparedness, warning, and relief from natural disaster effects, a system is proposed which would combine the elements of remote sensing, data processing, information distribution, and communications support on a global scale for disaster mitigation.

Bukley, Angelia P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Environmental Perturbations Caused by the Impacts of Asteroids and Comets

We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction may relate to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. We discuss the limitations of these mechanisms in terms of the spatial scale that may be affected, and the time scale over which the effects may last. Our goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects having a range of energies and compositions. We also identify the many uncertainties concerning the environmental effects of impacts. We conclude that, for impact energies below about 10(exp 4) Mts (megatons of TNT equivalent) - i.e., impact frequencies less than in 6 x 10(exp 4) yr, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively - blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 10(exp 4) or 10(exp 5) km (exp 2), which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plane over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 10(exp 4) to 10 (exp 5) Mts (intervals up to 3 x 10(exp 5) yr; comets and asteroids with sizes up to 800 m and 1.5 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In the submicrometer dust injection fraction from the pulverized target material is much higher than is presently thought to be most likely, then dust injection could be important in this energy range.

Toon, Owen B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Estimating Canopy Water Content of Chaparral Shrubs Using Optical Methods

California chaparral ecosystems are exceptionally fire adapted and typically are subject to wildfire at decadal to century frequencies. The hot dry Mediterranean climate summers and the chaparral communities of the Santa Monica Mountains make wildfire one of the most serious economic and life-threatening natural disasters faced by the region. Additionally, the steep fire-burned hillsides are subject to erosion, slumpage, and mud slides during the winter rains. The Santa Monica Mountain Zone (SMMZ) is a 104,000 ha eastwest trending range with 607 m of vertical relief and located in the center of the greater Los Angeles region. A series of fires in the fall of 1993 burned from Simi Valley to Santa Monica within a few hours. Developing techniques to monitor fire hazard and predict the spread of fire is of major concern to the region. One key factor in the susceptibility to fire is the water content of the vegetation canopy. The development of imaging spectrometry and remote sensing techniques may constitute a tool to provide this information.

Ustin, Susan L.↗

NASA NTRS1998

NASA's Current Earth Science Program

NASA's Earth science program is a scientific endeavor whose goal is to provide long-term understanding of the Earth as an integrated system of land, water, air and life. A highly developed scientific knowledge of the Earth system is necessary to understand how the environment affects humanity, and how humanity may be affecting the environment. The remote sensing technologies used to gather the global environmental data used in such research also have numerous practical applications. Current applications of remote sensing data demonstrate their practical benefits in areas such as the monitoring of crop conditions and yields, natural disasters and forest fires; hazardous waste clean up; and tracking of vector-borne diseases. The long-term availability of environmental data is essential for the continuity of important research and applications efforts. NASA's Earth observation program has undergone many changes in the recent past.

Charles, Leslie Bermann↗

NASA NTRS1999

Return to the Moon: A New Strategic Evaluation

This paper reviews the value of a new lunar program, initially robotic and eventually manned, in the light of developments since the 1991 Synthesis Group study of the Space Exploration Initiative. The objective is to evaluate a return to the Moon in comparison to proposed Mars programs as a focus for American space exploration with humans in the next century. The Moon is demonstrably accessible, hospitable, useful, and interesting. Lunar programs are inherently faster and less risky from a programmatic viewpoint than comparable Mars programs such as Mars Direct. The dominant reason for a resumption of manned lunar missions, focussed on a single site such as Grimaldi, is to rebuild the infrastructure for missions beyond earth orbit, the last of which was in 1972. A transitional program, corresponding to the 10 Gemini missions that bridged the gap between Mercury and Apollo, was considered absolutely essential by the Synthesis Group. Further justification for a return to the Moon is the demonstrated feasibility of a robotic lunar observatory, concentrating on optical and infrared interferometry. Many unsolved scientific questions about the Moon itself remain, and could be investigated using telerobotic lunar rovers even before the return of humans. Mars is unquestionably more interesting scientifically and far more hospitable for long-term colonization. A new lunar program would be the most effective possible preparation for the human exploration, settlement, and eventually the terraforming of Mars. Lunar and Mars programs are complementary, not competitive. Both can be justified in the most fundamental terms as beginning the dispersal of the human species against uncontrollable natural disasters, cometary or asteroidal impacts in particular, to which mankind is vulnerable while confined to a single planet. Three specific programs are recommended for the 2001-2010 period: Ice Prospectors, to evaluate polar ice or hydrogen deposits; a robotic lunar observatory; and a manned lunar base and observatory.

Lowman, Paul D., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Airborne Radar Observations of Hurricane Georges during Landfall over the Dominican Republic

On 22 September 1998 hurricane Georges made landfall on the Dominican Republic (DR). Georges cost the DR at least 500 lives, made more than 155,000 people homeless and caused extensive damage to the country's main industries, tourism and agriculture. There was considerable wind damage, with wind gusts up to 58 m/s in Santa Domingo on the south coast, but most of the damage and deaths resulted from mudslides and the flooding of rivers. While this may have been the worst natural disaster to strike the DR, the sustained rapid storm movement saved the island from worse damage. Georges had previously affected several islands in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico, but it had retained much of its circulation strength. Forty raingauge stations across the DR measured rainfall totals from Georges between 0.7 and 41 cm, the latter at the capital Santo Domingo, located on the south coast. At Herrera the maximum 1 h rainfall rate was 72 mm/h. It is suspected that much higher rain rates occurred in DR's mountainous interior. Before landfall the eye was clearly evident in satellite imagery. When the eye moved over southeastern DR, it filled rapidly, and the cloud top height decreased in all storm sectors except in the southern inflow sector, where a long-lived MCS, with a diameter larger than that of the eyewall, slowly became enwrapped in the hurricane circulation. The eye closure was most rapid between 16-18 UTC, when the eyewall circulation felt the mountainous terrain of the Cordillera Central, which rises up to 3,093 m. The estimated central pressure increased from 962 hPa at 15 UTC to 986 hPa at 03Z on 23 Sept, and the maximum sustained surface wind speed decreased from 54 to 36 in s-1 during the same period. The island of Hispaniola has a cross-track width of about 250 km, much wider than the diameter of the eyewall anvil (about 100 km before landfall). So the event can truly be considered to be a landfalling case, even though Georges recovered after crossing Hispaniola, albeit never to the same strength. This talk will summarize satellite and ground observations of Georges, as it passed the DR, and it will focus on EDOP data. In particular, we will try to estimate the rainfall rate over the mountainous terrain of the DR. And we will use detailed sounding data to explain the presence and characteristics of the massive MCS to the south, as well as the upper-level updrafts apparent over this MCS and over the mountains of the DR.

Geerts, B.↗