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Suborbital Intercept and Fragmentation of an Asteroid with Very Short Warning Time Scenario

Small near-Earth objects (NEOs) is approx. 50-150 m in size are far more numerous (hundreds of thousands to millions yet to be discovered) than larger NEOs. Small NEOs, which are mostly asteroids rather than comets, are very faint in the night sky due to their small sizes, and are, therefore, difficult to discover far in advance of Earth impact. Furthermore, even small NEOs are capable of creating explosions with energies on the order of tens or hundreds of megatons (Mt). We are, therefore, motivated to prepare to respond effectively to short warning time, small NEO impact scenarios. In this paper we explore the lower bound on actionable warning time by investigating the performance of notional upgraded Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) to carry Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payloads to intercept and disrupt a hypothetical incoming NEO at high altitudes (generally at least 2500 km above Earth). We conduct this investigation by developing optimal NEO intercept trajectories for a range of cases and comparing their performances. Our results show that suborbital NEO intercepts using Minuteman III or SM-3 IIA launch vehicles could achieve NEO intercept a few minutes prior to when the NEO would strike Earth. We also find that more powerful versions of the launch vehicles (e.g., total deltaV is approx. 9.5-11 km/s) could intercept incoming NEOs several hours prior to when the NEO would strike Earth, if launched at least several days prior to the time of intercept. Finally, we discuss a number of limiting factors and practicalities that affect whether the notional systems we describe could become feasible.

Asteroid↗

Origin and Evolution of the Unusual Object 1996 PW: Asteroids from the Oort Cloud?

The unusual object 1996 PW was discovered on 1996 August 9 by the Near-Earth Asteroid Tracking automated search camera operating from Haleakala in Hawaii. Although asteroidal in appearance, it was soon determined that the object is in a near-parabolic orbit similar to that of a long-period comet. No object that was not an active comet has ever been discovered on such an eccentric orbit. The discovery of 1996 PW prompted us to examine and evaluate its possible origins, including the intriguing possibility that it is an asteroid from the Oort cloud. Current models for the formation of the Oort cloud argue that most of the material there should be from the Uranus-Neptune region and thus cometary, not asteroidal, in composition. We better quantify these models and show that approximately 1% of the Oort Cloud population should be asteroids. We find that 1996 PW has almost certainly been a resident of the Oort cloud. However, we find it equally likely that 1996 PW is an extinct comet or an asteroid. Although not conclusive, our results represent a significant change in our understanding of the Oort cloud, because they suggest that the ejection process sampled material from as close to the Sun as the asteroid belt in the primordial solar nebula and hence much warmer formation temperatures than previously thought. This diverse sample is preserved in the Oort cloud.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

Sample Collection from Small Airless Bodies: Examination of Temperature Constraints for the TGIP Sample Collector for the Hera Near-Earth Asteroid Sample Return Mission

There have been a number of missions that have explored the solar system with cameras and other instruments but profound questions remain that can only be addressed through the analysis of returned samples. However, due to lack of appropriate technology, high cost, and high risk, sample return has only recently become a feasible part of robotic solar system exploration. One specific objective of the President s new vision is that robotic exploration of the solar system should enhance human exploration as it discovers and understands the the solar system, and searches for life and resources [1]. Missions to small bodies, asteroids and comets, will partially fill the huge technological void between missions to the Moon and missions to Mars. However, such missions must be low cost and inherently simple, so they can be applied routinely to many missions. Sample return from asteroids, comets, Mars, and Jupiter s moons will be an important and natural part of the human exploration of space effort. Here we describe the collector designed for the Hera Near-Earth Asteroid Sample Return Mission. We have built a small prototype for preliminary evaluation, but expect the final collector to gather approx.100 g of sample of dust grains to centimeter sized clasts on each application to the surface of the asteroid.

Franzen, M. A.↗

The flux of small asteroids near the Earth

Fifteen new EA's (Earth approachers) have been discovered since September, among them the smallest asteroids on record: 1990 UN, 1991 BA, and 1991 JR, which are in the 10 to 100 m size range (Scotti et al. 1991b). For the first time, we can make estimates of the fluxes near the Earth of these small objects, thought to be the immediate parents of meteorites, from direct observation. In this paper, I show that for EA's larger than a few 100 m, the magnitude-frequency dependence we observe is consistent with the cumulative magnitude-frequency relation, m(H), established for the main belt asteroids. Assuming this relation extends to smaller sizes, however, the probability for discovering both 1990 UN and 1991 JR was 15 percent, and for discovering 1991 BA only 1 percent. Objects smaller than approx. 100 m are therefore increasingly overabundant compared to an extrapolation from larger objects, with the excess increasing with decreasing size. Near 10 m, the most probable flux near the Earth is two orders of magnitude higher. This is in agreement with the flux extrapolated from observations of bright meteors and fireballs. It is thus likely that processes other than collisional breakup of asteroidal material begin to supply the population of small objects near the Earth at sizes near 100 m. Tantalizing clues from spectral measurements and orbital associations suggest that these objects may be the debris from extinct, short-period comets.

Rabinowitz, David L.↗

Extraction of volatiles and metals from extraterrestrial materials

Recent progress in defining the physical, orbital, and chemical properties of the Earth-crossing asteroid and comet population was integrated into an elaborate Monte Carlo model of the fluxes of bodies in the inner Solar System. This model is of use in projecting flight opportunities to as-yet undiscovered near-Earth objects and in assessing the impact hazard to life on Earth and the evolutionary consequences of impacts on the other terrestrial planets. Further progress was made in defining desirable transportation system architectures for the use of non-terrestrial volatiles and metals, including the delivery of propellants to near-Earth space for fueling of space exploration initiative (SEI) type expeditions, the construction and resupply of Solar Power Satellite constellations in various Earth orbits (including geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO) and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit (HEEO)), and retrieval of He-3 for use as a clean fusion fuel on Earth. These studies suggest a greater future role for SERC in the exploration of space energy sources to meet Earth's 21st-century energy requirements. Laboratory studies of volatilization and deposition of ferrous metal alloys demonstrated deposition of strong iron films from carbonyl chemical vapor deposition (CVD), showing the crucial role of additive gases in governing the CVD process, and pointing the way to specific experiments on extraction and deposition of ferrous metals from nonterrestrial materials.

Lewis, J. S.↗

Near-Earth Object Surveyor Overview

The Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor is designed to detect, categorize and characterize Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) using infrared imaging. The project was approved to enter the preliminary design phase (Phase B) in FY21 after an extended Concept Development Phase (Phase A). The NEO Surveyor project responds to US Public Law 109-155[1], National Research Council’s report “Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys & Hazard Mitigation Strategies (2010)”[2], the U. S. National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (June 2018)[3], and the objectives of NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The goals of the NEO Surveyor project are to: (1) identify impact hazards to the Earth posed by NEOs (defined as asteroids and comets that come within 1.3 AU of the Sun) by performing a comprehensive survey of the NEO population; (2) obtain detailed physical characterization data for individual objects that are likely to pose an impact hazard; (3) characterize the entire population of potentially hazardous NEOs to inform potential mitigation strategies. The mission will make significant progress toward the George E. Brown, Jr. NEO Survey Program objective defined by the U. S. Congress of detecting, tracking, cataloging, and characterizing at least 90% of NEOs equal to or larger than 140 m in diameter. The project is a collaboration between NASA-JPL, the University of Arizona (UA) and industry, with Ball Aerospace notably providing the spacecraft and key instrument elements. This paper will describe the overall NEO Surveyor Project objectives, initial spacecraft and instrument design and development plans and mission concept.

Veto, Michael↗

Synergistic Activities of Near-Earth Object Exploration

U.S. President Obama stated on April 15, 2010 that the next goal for human spaceflight will be to send human beings to near-Earth asteroids by 2025. Missions to NEOs would undoubtedly provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of these primitive objects. Information obtained from a human investigation of a NEO, together with ground-based observations and prior spacecraft investigations of asteroids and comets, will also provide a real measure of ground truth to data obtained from terrestrial meteorite collections. Major advances in the areas of geochemistry, impact history, thermal history, isotope analyses, mineralogy, space weathering, formation ages, thermal inertias, volatile content, source regions, solar system formation, etc. can be expected from human NEO missions. Samples directly returned from a primitive body would lead to the same kind of breakthroughs for understanding NEOs that the Apollo samples provided for understanding the Earth-Moon system and its formation history. In addition, robotic precursor and human exploration missions to NEOs would allow the NASA and its international partners to gain operational experience in performing complex tasks (e.g., sample collection, deployment of payloads, retrieval of payloads, etc.) with crew, robots, and spacecraft under microgravity conditions at or near the surface of a small body. This would provide an important synergy between the worldwide Science and Exploration communities, which will be crucial for development of future international deep space exploration architectures and has potential benefits for future exploration of other destinations beyond low-Earth orbit.

Abell, Paul↗

Search for near-Earth asteroids with the spacewatch camera

The Spacewatch Program began as an engineering development of the discovery of near-earth asteroids and comets, with the firs observations starting in 1983, using an RCA charge coupled device (CCD) that has 320 x 512 pixels. Extensive software was written to scan the sky and learn how to do astrometry for precise orbits of newly discovered objects. The merit of the concept was proven, with many observations reported and comets recovered. The precision of astrometric observations for comets and asteroids was improved. For efficient scanning and discovery of new objects, a Tektronix 2048 x 2048 CCD was obtained and is now permanently on the Spacewatch Telescope. Other aspects of the Spacewatch Program are briefly discussed.

Gehrels, T.↗

How to make a comet

The primary mandate of NASA is the study of the nature and origin of the solar system. The study of the comets provide information about conditions and processes at the beginning of the solar system. Short period comets and their relatives, the near Earth asteroids may prove to be second only to the sun in importance to the long term survival of civilization for two reasons. The short period comets and the near Earth asteroids are a possible candidate for the cause of mass extinctions of life on Earth; and they may provide the material means for the expansion of civilization into the solar system and beyond. The comets and near Earth asteroids almost certainly represent the most primitive material of the solar system, still tantalizingly unavailable until spacecraft bring first-hand information. In the meantime comets must be studied by remote means. Laboratory investigations using synthetic cometary materials may add to the knowledge of these interesting objects. Experimentation on comet synthesis is briefly discussed.

Stephens, James↗

CCD scanning for asteroids and comets

A change coupled device (CCD) is used in a scanning mode to find new asteroids and recover known asteroids and comet nuclei. Current scientific programs include recovery of asteroids and comet nuclei requested by the Minor Planet Center (MPC), discovery of new asteroids in the main belt and of unusual orbital types, and follow-up astrometry of selected new asteroids discovered. The routine six sigma limiting visual magnitude is 19.6 and slightly more than a square degree is scanned three times every 90 minutes of observing time during the fortnight centered on New Moon. Semiautomatic software for detection of moving objects is in routine use; angular speeds as low as 11.0 arcseconds per hour were distinguished from the effects of the Earth's atmosphere on the field of view. A typical set of three 29-minute scans near the opposition point along the ecliptic typically nets at least 5 new main-belt asteroids down to magnitude 19.6. In 18 observing runs (months) 43 asteroids were recovered, astrometric and photometric data on 59 new asteroids were reported, 10 new asteroids with orbital elements were consolidated, and photometry and positions of 22 comets were reported.

Gehrels, T.↗

The discovery of 1982 DB, the most accessible asteroid known

A small Apollo object was found while photographing the split comet DuToit 2-Hartley on February 27/28, 1982. Designated 1982 DB, this earth-crossing asteroid passed the earth at a distance of 4.08 million km about 1 month prior to its discovery. Asteroid 1982 DB has been determined to be the most accessible near-earth minor planet known. It provides many excellent opportunities for rendezvous and sample return missions, and a rare dual rendezvous mission with 1980 AA as the second target. For a mission to be realized, opportunities to observe 1982 DB during future apparitions must be taken.

Helin, E. F.↗

Radar aperture synthesis observations of asteroids

We report of Goldstone-VLA, radar aperture-synthesis observations of the mainbelt asteroids 324 Bamberga and 7 Iris and the near-Earth asteroids 1991 EE and 4179 Toutatis. Simultaneous resolution of echoes in both angle and Doppler frequency provide new constraints on the mainbelt asteroids' pole directions: Bamberga's spin vector is within 40 deg of the south ecliptic pole, and the twofold ambiguity in Iris' pole direction (P. Magnusson, 1989) is resolved in favor of the ecliptic coordinates lambda = 15 deg, beta = +25 deg. For Bamberga, monostatic and bistatic radar echoes and VLA thermal-emission measurements, also reported here, are consistent with radiometric estimates of Bamberga's size and with the hypothesis that the asteroid is overlain by a regolith having a porosity of approximately 50%. Our near-Earth asteroid measurements required the development of new on-line VLA software that allows imaging of objects that are in the telescope's `near field.' This software has been successfully tested on Toutatis at a distance of 0.06 AU and will be essential for VLA observations of Earth-approaching comets.

De Pater, Imke↗

The Contemporary Hazard of Cometary Impacts

Cosmic impacts pose a continuing hazard of loss of human life and property. Significant contemporary risk is associated with projectiles in the energy range from about 10 megatons of TNT up to the size of the K/T impactor. The lower threshold for damage is defined by the atmosphere of the Earth, which effectively shields us From smaller projectiles. Up to energies of about a gigaton of TNT, the effects are local or regional for impacts on the land, or coastal for ocean impacts, which can generate large tsunamis. A greater risk is associated with still larger impacts, which are capable of causing global ecological catastrophe, possibly leading to mass mortality From starvation and epidemics. If such a impact took place anywhere on Earth during our lifetimes, we would each be in danger, independent of where the projectile struck. Statistical estimates indicate that each human on this planet runs a risk of roughly 1 in 20,000 of dying from this cause. Prudence suggests that we should be concerned about such impacts and seek ways of avoiding them or mitigating their consequences. The primary objective of any program to deal with this hazard is to determine whether or not such a near-term impact is likely. The best approach for the asteroidal component is a comprehensive telescopic survey, which can discover all Earth-crossing asteroids larger than 1 km in diameter and provide decades of warning in which to plan ways to deflect or destroy a threatening object. Long-period comets, however, pose a much greater challenge, since they cannot be discovered long in advance of a possible impact, their orbits are harder to predict, and they are significantly more difficult to deflect or destroy.

Morrison, David↗

Comets, Asteroids, Meteorites, and the Origin of the Biosphere

During the past few decades, the delivery of water, organics, and prebiotic chemicals to the Biosphere of Earth during the Hadean (4.5-3.8 Ga) period of heavy bombardment by comets and asteroids has become more widely accepted. Comets are still largely regarded as frigid, pristine bodies of protosolar nebula material that are devoid of liquid water and therefore unsuitable for life. Complex organic compounds have been observed in comets and on the water-rich asteroid 1998 KY26 and near IR observations have indicated the presence of crystalline water ice and ammonia hydrate on the large Kuiper Belt object (50000) Quaoar that has resurfacing suggesting cryovolcanic outgassing. Spacecraft observations of the chemical compositions and characteristics of the nuclei of several comets (Halley, Borrelly, Wild 2, and Tempel 1) have shown that comets contain complex organic chemicals; that water is the predominant volatile; and that extremely high temperatures (approx. 350-400 K) can be reached on the surfae of the very black (albedo approx. 0.03) nuclei of comets when they approach the Sun. Impact craters and pinnacles observed on comet Wild 2 suggest a thick crust. Episodic outbursts and jets from the nuclei of several comets indicate that localized regimes of liquid water and water vapor can periodically exist beneath the comet crust. The Deep Impact mission found the temperature of the nucleus of comet Tempel 1 at 1.5 AU varied from a minimum of 280 plus or minus 8 K the 330K (57 C) on the sunlit side. In this paper it is argued that that pools and films of liquid water exist (within a wide range of temperatures) in cavities and voids just beneath the hot, black crust. The possibility of liquid water existing over a wide range of temperatures significantly enhances the possibility that comets might contain niches suitable for the growth of microbial communities and ecosystems. These regimes would be ideal for the growth of psychrophilic, mesophilic, and thermophilic photoautotrophs and chemolithotrophs such as the motile filamentous cyanobacteria (e.g., Calothrix, Oscillatoria, Phormidium, and Spirulina) that grow in geothermal springs and geysers of Earth at temperatures ranging fiom 320K to 345K and are also found growing in cold polar desert soils. The mineralized remains of morphotypes of all of these cyanobacteria have also been found in the Orgueil CI1 and the Murchison CN2 carbonaceous meteorites that may derive from cometary parent bodies. Observational results that support the hypothesis that liquid water can in active regions just beneath the surface of comets and that comets, carbonaceous meteorites, and asteroids may have played a significant role in the origin and evolution of the Biosphere and in the distribution of microbial life throughout the Solar System.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

The Scientific Case for Sample Return from a Primitive Near-Earth Asteroid

This paper is predicated on the recent experimental findings that the smallest structural ferromagnesiosilica entities in collected chondritic aggregate interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) have a predictable metastable eutectic composition. Kinetically controlled gas to solid condensation of MgFe-SiO-O2-H2 vapors does NOT produce stoichiometric crystalline solids (i.e. minerals) such as predicted by equilibrium condensation models but instead yields amorphous solids that are chemically ordered at metastable eutectics in the binary phase diagrams. Therefore these condensed dust grains will have a considerable amount of 'internal free energy' that will make them highly responsive to changes in their environments. Their inherent high energy-content 'buys' time and energy for mineralogical modification and chemical readjustment in response to changing environmental conditions. The activation energy barrier for reactions in metastable eutectic solids will be lower than for crystalline solids. As a result the reactions can take place at much lower temperatures and on much shorter time scales. That is, they will also occur much earlier in the evolution of a parent body wherein heat-producing sources may either be immature or inefficient. The ensuing reaction chains from metastable equilibrium to full thermodynamic equilibration with the local environment will be a chaotic 'Ostwald cascade' but from a well defined starting point to a predictable end result. Here we will discuss the implications of metastable eutectic dust as we see them for dust properties in icy and ice-free parent bodies wherein circumstellar dust is still recognizable because of the primitive nature of these parent bodies. We point to potential engineering constraints on sample acquisition and storage during Earth transit. Among the scientific goals of a primitive Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) sample return mission will be verification of the nature of dust forming and modification processes during hierarchical accretion in the earliest protoplanets. We propose sampling an infrared P- or D-class NEA or an object showing cometary activity such as 2201 Oljato that could be an asteroid or evolved comet. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Rietmeijer, Frans J. M.↗

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (< 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results. Detailed technical descriptions of the study results are provided in a separate final technical report, which can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO Impact Threat Mitigation↗

An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.

NEO Impact threat↗