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Improved Space Weather Observations and Modeling for Aviation Radiation

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

space weather

Towards A Flexible Data Fusion Tool Incorporating Model, Satellite, Regulatory Monitor and Low-Cost Sensor Data for Air Quality Estimation and Forecasting

Air quality managers, researchers, and concerned community scientists around the world have a variety of sources for air quality information, ranging from traditional regulatory monitoring networks and atmospheric chemistry models to remote sensing data products and low-cost sensor networks. However, the ability to incorporate data from these disparate sources and synthesize a comprehensive overview of the local air quality situation remains a considerable barrier for many end-users. This presentation will outline a tool, currently in development, which will address this need using a flexible data fusion approach. The tool will make use of air quality forecast model outputs (primarily from the NASA GEOS-CF composition forecast modeling system), satellite remote sensing data (from instruments including MODIS, VIIRS, TROPOMI, plus TEMPO for the US when available), and in-situ data from official regulatory and/or low-cost networks where these are available. The ability to incorporate data from low-cost sensor networks will be a key feature of the tool; it will make use of other available data sources to calibrate the low-cost sensor data on a regional scale, then use these calibrated low-cost sensor data for localized updating to resolve finer-scale air quality patterns. Development of this tool is taking place with the help of national and international partners and end-user groups, coordinated through the US EPA and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The tool is being developed on the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform to facilitate integration of diverse data sources and free access by a broad community of end-users. Stewardship of the tool will be passed to US EPA and UNEP to support future activities with end-users in the US and around the world, and the tool itself will remain freely accessible. We hope that this tool will lower the barrier to entry for various user groups worldwide, including community scientists, who struggle to integrate disparate data sources to gain insight into their local air quality situations. This presentation will cover the early stages of the development of the tool, including the underlying methods and some pilot case studies in integrating low-cost sensor data.

global models

High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) Projects in Germany and the Netherlands—Review and Lessons Learned

Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is a concept that can help to address heating and cooling needs through the use of the subsurface as a seasonal thermal energy storage (STES) system. Over 2800 ATES systems have been deployed with storage temperatures typically below 25 °C and only a few with higher temperatures (>40 °C), which would increase the energy density and utility of the stored thermal fluids. Until now, only a few high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) projects have been initiated and are still in operation. These HT-ATES projects have encountered a range of technical and non-technical challenges. This study reviews ten such projects: four in Germany and six in the Netherlands. The non-technical issues include public acceptance, a lack of regulatory framework for these systems, managing overlapping uses of the subsurface, managing changes with the providers and off-takers of thermal energy, and obtaining financing to implement these projects. Common technical issues include geological factors such as incomplete characterization of the subsurface and reservoir heterogeneity; geochemical issues such as mineral scaling, corrosion, and biofouling; lower than expected thermal recovery; and issues with system design and reliability. This review highlights benefits and challenges faced by HT-ATES projects with the goal to use the lessons learned to improve the siting, design, development, and operation of such systems. Recommendations include improved initial subsurface site characterization, use of coupled process models to optimize system design and predict system performance, cascaded uses of stored thermal energy to better utilize the stored heat, monitoring networks to provide feedback on system performance, and expanded system scale to allow for continued operation even when maintenance of some system components is required. Techno-economic modeling and risk analysis could be used to optimize such HT-ATES project design and identify key factors that will affect sustained economic viability. In addition, design flexibility is important for these systems to allow for changing conditions regarding the supply and demand of thermal energy. Adopting these findings should improve the performance and reduce the risks for future HT-ATES projects worldwide.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Identifying preferential flow from soil moisture time series: Review of methodologies

Abstract Identifying and quantifying preferential flow (PF) through soil—the rapid movement of water through spatially distinct pathways in the subsurface—is vital to understanding how the hydrologic cycle responds to climate, land cover, and anthropogenic changes. In recent decades, methods have been developed that use measured soil moisture time series to identify PF. Because they allow for continuous monitoring and are relatively easy to implement, these methods have become an important tool for recognizing when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. The methods seek to identify a pattern or quantification that indicates the occurrence of PF. Most commonly, the chosen signature is either (1) a nonsequential response to infiltrated water, in which soil moisture responses do not occur in order of shallowest to deepest, or (2) a velocity criterion, in which newly infiltrated water is detected at depth earlier than is possible by nonpreferential flow processes. Alternative signatures have also been developed that have certain advantages but are less commonly utilized. Choosing among these possible signatures requires attention to their pertinent characteristics, including susceptibility to errors, possible bias toward false negatives or false positives, reliance on subjective judgments, and possible requirements for additional types of data. We review 77 studies that have applied such methods to highlight important information for readers who want to identify PF from soil moisture data and to inform those who aim to develop new methods or improve existing ones. Core Ideas Soil moisture data can be used to identify the occurrence of preferential flow (PF) and its initiating conditions. Various data‐analysis methods to identify PF differ in susceptibility to error, bias, and subjectivity. These methods can utilize vast amounts of data from soil moisture monitoring networks to develop understanding of when, where, and under what conditions PF occurs. Newly developed methods may lead to better accuracy and reliability, and reduce the need for subjective judgments. Plain Language Summary Preferential flow through soil occurs when a large amount of water is suddenly available, as during an intense storm. This type of flow moves rapidly through the soil in distinct narrow pathways rather than moving evenly throughout the body of soil, with major consequences for groundwater resources, ecosystems, spreading of contaminants, and other vital concerns. Methods of detecting preferential flow have been developed that utilize measurements of soil water content made by sensors installed at various depths. This measurement technology has been widely implemented, many locations now having datasets years in length, and various methods have been developed for using these to identify preferential flow. The various methods are based on different features in the soil moisture records and vary in their advantages and shortcomings. In this review, we explain and evaluate these methods, highlighting important information for their implementation to identify preferential flow from soil moisture data and for efforts to develop new methods or improve existing ones.

Nimmo, John R

Evaluation and calibration of MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis for PM 2.5 in a semi-urbanized area in the south of the Amazon

Air pollution has significant implications for the climate and poses irreversible risks to human health. The Amazon region of Brazil is severely affected by biomass burning (BB) emissions, yet air quality monitoring remains highly inadequate. Given the scarcity of surface-based observations, reanalysis models have become essential tools for assessing air pollution. Although MERRA-2 and CAMS PM 2.5 products are widely utilized, their validation and comprehensive evaluation for the Amazon Basin remain limited. Here, this study assesses the performance of these products in a semi-urbanized region in the southern Amazon. The calibrated time series was employed to analyze PM 2.5 concentrations from 2003 to 2023. Our results showed satisfactory performance of both products for the 24-h averages of PM 2.5 , with linear correlations above 0.76. However, it was found that both products overestimate surface concentrations. MERRA-2 performed better, with approximately 30% lower bias than CAMS. Time series analysis showed that the study area is strongly impacted by emissions BB in the dry period, mainly in August and September. Furthermore, our findings indicate a positive trend in increasing PM 2.5 concentrations, with a notable rise observed since 2014. The average PM 2.5 levels frequently exceed the daily air quality guidelines established by the WHO in 2021. It has been estimated that the population of this region is exposed to concentrations above 15 μg.m -3 , on average, more than 30 days per year. Our results contribute to the evaluation of MERRA-2 and CAMS products for Amazon and provide a corrected estimate for surface PM 2.5 . Recent concerns about air quality and the implementation of new surface monitoring networks may improve the evaluation of reanalysis products. In the short term, the need for this information makes our assessments indispensable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Evaluation of a catalytically aided thermal regeneration method for quartz filter-based black carbon sensing

Black carbon (BC)–a strong indicator of diesel particulate matter and other sources of incomplete carbonaceous fuel combustion–is an important air pollutant that affects public health, yet low-cost sensors capable of long-term, autonomous BC monitoring remain underdeveloped. We report on the development and evaluation of a novel BC prototype sensor that integrates soot collection on a quartz filter, in-situ optical transmission measurement, and thermal filter regeneration. To enable regeneration at lower temperatures, we evaluated the catalytic effects of various alkali metal salts pre-applied to the filter. Among these, cesium carbonate (Cs 2 CO 3 ) exhibited the strongest catalytic activity, lowering the temperature required for complete BC removal by up to 190 °C and reducing energy consumption by more than 75% compared to that required for untreated filters. The catalytic effect persisted through 10 BC collection–regeneration cycles. These findings demonstrate the potential of catalytically aided thermal regeneration in BC sensors and suggest a pathway toward energy-efficient and reduced maintenance air quality monitoring suitable for distributed BC monitoring networks.

Tang, Xiaochen [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat

Inertia Estimation and Trend Analysis of the United States Power Grid Interconnections

The transition from conventional to modern power systems is causing an increase in integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). This generally leads to a decrease in total system inertia, which in-turn increases the system’s rate-of-change-of-frequency (RoCoF) during disturbances. This poses a threat to the frequency stability of the system and may falsely trigger protective devices. To monitor system status and plan for integrating renewable energy sources like photovoltaic, wind, and energy storage systems, a realistic study of inertia estimation and analysis in the United States (US) over the past decade is needed. This paper uses field-measured phasor measurement unit (PMU) data collected throughout the US from 2013 to 2023 via the Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye) operated by the University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The collected PMU frequency data is utilized to estimate the system inertia of the three US interconnections: Eastern, Western, and Texas. Various RoCoF time windows are investigated for estimating the inertia of each interconnection by maximizing the correlation coefficient between the measured RoCoF and power mismatch. The resulting inertia trends over the past decade show approximately a 6% decline in inertia in the Eastern interconnection, a 15% decline in inertia in the Western interconnection, and a 16% increase in inertia in Texas. Key insights into how inertia is changing amidst the complex energy landscape are extracted using the fuel mix trend data. This provides valuable information for future energy strategies and planning.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION

Comparative Analysis of Inter-Area Oscillations in the US Eastern and Western Interconnections

This paper presents a comparative analysis of interarea oscillations in the US Eastern and Western Interconnections using frequency disturbance data collected from the advanced wide-area Frequency Monitoring Network (FNET/GridEye), enabling us to investigate and compare the oscillation characteristics of both regions. The study analyzes the statistical data from the two interconnections, including total oscillation events, average dominant frequencies, damping ratios, and maximum amplitudes. We also explore the impact of seasonal and daily variations on oscillation occurrences and the influence of different grid topologies and operational practices. The results provide insights into both interconnections' stability and control characteristics, offering valuable information for power system operators to enhance grid stability and oscillation suppression measures.

Fu, Hao [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)]

Bayesian OED for Seismic Monitoring

SAND2024-13870O The Bayesian OED (Optimal Experiment Design) for Seismic Monitoring code provides the tools to analyze and optimize seismic monitoring networks using Bayesian OED. This method designs a utility function for experiments (network designs) using network analysis and network optimization. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Catanach, Thomas

LANL Meteorological Program: 2023 Data Completeness/Quality Report

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) operates seven mesa-top instrumented meteorology towers: Technical Area (TA) 6, TA-49, TA-53, TA-54, TA-63, TA-54B, and TA-16B. An additional instrumented tower is located in Mortandad Canyon (TA-5 MDCN), and there is a rain gauge at North Community (NCOM), located within the town of Los Alamos. The 10 meter (m) towers at TA-63, TA-54B, and TA-16B have been in testing since they were installed in 2021, and will be included in a future data completeness report. A description of the meteorology monitoring network, prior to the installation of the TA-63, TA-54B, and TA-16B is found in Dewart and Boggs (2014). Four of the mesa-top towers (e.g., TA-6, TA-49, TA-53, and TA-54) are instrumented at the 1.2 m, 11.5 m, 23 m, and 46 m levels. In addition, the TA-6 tower is instrumented at the 92 m level. The TA-5 MDCN tower is 10 m in height and is instrumented at 1.2 m and 10 m. Data are collected and averaged every 15 minutes. Range checking is performed on each measurement every 15 minutes; data that are beyond normal ranges are eliminated from the data set and replaced by a code for missing data. In addition, data are reviewed weekly by qualified meteorologists to identify bad data not identified by the range checking technique. The data steward eliminates these data from the data set and replaces them with a code for missing data. The instrument technicians also review that data and schedule instrument replacement, as required. All instruments are calibrated at a frequency that meets the criteria identified in ANSI/ANS-3.11-2015. Data completeness is determined by the number of total 15-minute records available versus the number of possible measurements for the entire year. As a rule, the meteorologists do not attempt to estimate data that are eliminated as bad data. Original datalogger records, including bad data, can be recalled from program archival storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM

Reactor System Facility Modification to Detect Compromised Human Machine Interfaces

This study focuses on a multi-layered Industrial Control System (ICS)/Operational Technology (OT) security architecture to aid in the discovery and mitigation of compromised Human Machine Interface (HMI)/Instrumentation & Control (I&C) based systems for modifying a prototypical reactor condition test facility called the Flowing Autoclave System (FAS) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This is achieved through a three-layered combination of network security solutions, hash-based algorithms, and blockchain technologies. Hash algorithms are mathematical functions used to generate a predetermined set of fixed-length values. They are widely used in computer security to verify the integrity of system information and data, both on a local network and the wider internet. Even small amounts of unauthorized system modification will cause the hash algorithm to output a set of characters that deviate significantly from its original value. Assisting secure hash functions, blockchain technology is a secure and distributed technology used to provide an immutable set of records replicated on all devices within a decentralized network. Blockchain offers a cost-effective solution to detect system compromise by providing a traceable breadcrumb trail of all network activity and data modification happening on a system. If both are used in conjunction with network monitoring tools, the integration of this three-pronged approach can become an asset in detecting suspected system compromises before any real damage can occur.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Decameter-wave radio observations of Jupiter during the 1977 apparition

A catalog of observations of Jupiter's sporadic decameter wavelength radio emissions obtained with the Goddard Space Flight Center Jupiter Monitor Network between June 1977 and May 1978 is presented. Data were collected using the Goddard Space Flight Center station in Greenbelt, MD. and at facilities installed at Orroral Valley (Canberra), Australia and the Nancay Radio Observatory in France. Observations were obtained daily at frequencies of 16.7 and 22.2 MHz using five-element Yagi antennas at each end of a two-element interferometer. Plots of the two dimensional emission occurrence probability distribution are given.

Alexander, J. K.

Low-frequency radio navigation for the Army's Mobile Automated Field Instrumentation System /MAFIS/

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is engaged in the early phases of conceptual, preliminary design, and feasibility demonstration studies leading to determination of a design and implementation of the Army's proposed Mobile Automated Field Instrumentation System (MAFIS). An overview is provided of the current design concept for an experimental radio navigation subsystem to be implemented in the field as a part of the MAFIS study effort. Objectives of MAFIS include mobility, field-ruggedness and longevity of equipment, and low acquisition and life-cycle costs. The navigation subsystem comprises a 4-station radio transmitter network, plus the navigation receivers, network monitoring receivers and communications links, and interface to the command/control 'central' for transmitter status monitoring. Attention is given to accuracy goals, radio propagation effects, transmitter arrangement, radio-frequency allocations, position initialization and lane resolution, and transmitter and receiver functions.

Wallis, D. E.

An intercomparison of ground-based total ozone instruments

Five ground-based total ozone spectrophotometers were intercompared at Wallops Island, VA between October 1979 and January 1981. The tests were conducted to evaluate the stability and accuracy of each instrument over an extended time period. Acceptable performance regarding these two characteristics is essential if an instrument is to be useful in field measurements and network monitoring of the atmospheric total ozone content. The Dobson spectrophotometer was used as the standard of comparison for the Brewer grating spectrophotometer, the USSR M-83 ozonometer, the Canterbury filter photometer, and the SenTran filter photometer. The grating instrument was found to be potentially the equal of the Dobson but was subject to unreliable performance by its rather sophisticated electronic components. The filter photometers performed acceptably for short periods but filter aging and eventual degradation rendered both units unusable before the end of the intercomparison. Finally, the M-83 results were found to be in acceptable agreement with the Dobson throughout the period when certain qualifications are invoked. The accuracy of a single M-83 ozone measurement may be low. Averages tend to improve its agreement with the Dobson.

Parsons, C. L.

Energetic solar particle fluxes out to 3 AU during the 7 May 1978 flare event

Simultaneous solar proton flux measurements on IMP 7 and by the world wide neutron monitor network during the May 7, 1978 flare event led to conclusions that in the energy range from 50 MeV to 10 GeV: (1) the propagation of the flare particles in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) between the Sun and the Earth was nearly scatter free; and (2) therefore, the intensity time (IT) profiles of the solar proton fluxes observed at Earth for about one hour after onset represent the solar injection profiles even to energies as low as 50 MeV. Observations of the IMF at Helios A indicate that the IMF was undisturbed between the Sun and Helios A at the time of the May 7, 1978 flare event; and, therefore, the solar particle propagation was also scatter free from the Sun to Helios A.

Lockwood, J. A.

The Interpretation of Crustal Dynamics Data in Terms of Plate Interactions and Active Tectonics of the Anatolian Plate and Surrounding Regions in the Middle East

During the past 6 months, efforts were concentrated on the following areas: (1) Continued development of realistic, finite element modeling of plate interactions and associated deformation in the Eastern Mediterranean; (2) Neotectonic field investigations of seismic faulting along the active fault systems in Turkey with emphasis on identifying seismic gaps along the North Anatolian fault; and (3) Establishment of a GPS regional monitoring network in the zone of ongoing continental collision in eastern Turkey (supported in part by NSF).

Toksoz, M. Nafi

Low frequency electric and magnetic fields

Following preliminary investigations of the low frequency electric and magnetic fields that may exists in the Earth-ionospheric cavity, measurements were taken with state-of-the art spectrum analyzers. As a follow up to this activity, an investigation was initiated to determine sources and values for possible low frequency signal that would appear in the cavity. The lowest cavity resonance is estimated at about 8 Hz, but lower frequencies may be an important component of our electromagnetic environment. The potential field frequencies produced by the electron were investigated by a classical model that included possible cross coupling of the electric and gravitation fields. During this work, an interesting relationship was found that related the high frequency charge field with the extremely low frequency of the gravitation field. The results of numerical calculations were surprisingly accurate and this area of investigation is continuing. The work toward continued development of a standardized monitoring facility is continuing with the potential of installing the prototype at West Virginia State College early in 1990. This installation would be capable of real time monitoring of ELF signals in the Earth-ionoshpere cavity and would provide some directional information. A high gain, low noise, 1/f frequency corrected preamplifier was designed and tested for the ferrite core magnetic sensor. The potential application of a super conducting sensor for the ELF magnetic field detection is under investigation. It is hoped that a fully operational monitoring network could pinpoint the location of ELF signal sources and provide new information on where these signals originate and what causes them, assuming that they are natural in origin.

Spaniol, Craig