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At least 91 records · Page 5

Facilitating the exploitation of ERTS imagery using snow enhancement techniques

The author has identified the following significant results. New fracture detail within New England test area has been interpreted from ERTS-1 images. Comparative analysis of snow-free imagery (1096-15065 and 1096-15072) has demonstrated that MSS bands 5 and 7 supply the greatest amount of geological fracture detail. Interpretation of the first snow-covered ERTS-1 images (1132-15074 and 1168-15065) in correlation with ground snow depth data indicates that a heavy blanket of snow (less than 9 inches) accentuates major structural features while a light dusting (greater than 1 inch) accentuates more subtle topographic expressions. Snow cover was found to accentuate drainage patterns which are indicative of lithological and/or structural variations. Snow cover provided added enhancement for viewing and detecting topographically expressed fractures and faults. A recent field investigation was conducted within the New England test area to field check lineaments observed from analysis of ERTS-1 imagery, collect snow depth readings, and obtain structural joint readings at key locations in the test area.

Wobber, F. J.↗

On the Cycling of 231 Pa and 230 Th in Benthic Nepheloid Layers

The naturally-occurring radionuclides protactinium-231 ( 231 Pa) and thorium-230 ( 230 Th) are produced at approximately uniform rates in the ocean and thought to be removed from the water column through a reversible exchange with settling particles. Recent measurements along the U.S. GEOTRACES North Atlantic transect (GA03) revealed two features which are at odds with current understanding about 231 Pa and 230 Th cycling in the ocean: (i) a sharp decrease in dissolved 231 Pa ( 231 Pa d ) and 230 Th ( 230 Th d ) activities with depth below 2000-4000 m and (ii) very high particulate 231 Pa ( 231 Pa p ) and 230 Th ( 230 Th p ) activities near the bottom, at a number of stations between the New England continental shelf and Bermuda. Concomitant measurements of light attenuation from beam transmissometry showed that both features occur in benthic nepheloid layers (BNLs), which suggests that these features may stem, at least partly, from the presence of resuspended sediment in the deep water column. Here we explore the behaviour of 231 Pa and 230 Th in BNLs by using (i) radionuclide, optical, and hydrographic data from the western segment of GA03 (west of Bermuda) and (ii) a simplified model of particle and radionuclide cycling that includes a lateral particle source. First, the BNLs observed at GA03 stations are characterized from measurements of the beam attenuation coefficient converted to particle concentrations. At all stations, particle concentrations below the clear water minimum were the highest in the bottom mixed layer, whose thickness ranged from 95 to 320 m, and decreased generally with height above the bottom. The thickness of strong BNLs varied from 482 to 1358 m and the vertical integral of particle concentration in excess to that at the clear water minimum varied from 1 x 10 4 to 2 x 10 6 mg m −2 , among different stations. Second, the particle-radionuclide model is fitted to data from stations GT11-04 (New England continental rise) and GT11-08 (Hatteras abyssal plain), where samples for radionuclide analyses were collected in the BNL. The model can reproduce simultaneously the increase of particle concentration with depth, the low 231 Pa d and 230 Th d in the BNLs, and the high 231 Pa p and 230 Th p near the bottom. According to the model, at heights less than about 300 m above the seafloor, the dissolved phase was set primarily by a balance between adsorption and desorption, with vertical turbulent mixing playing a secondary role, whilst the particulate phase behaved largely as a non-reactive constituent supplied laterally and transported vertically by particle settling and turbulent mixing. Sensitivity tests with the model suggest that lateral particle sources near continental slopes and similar reliefs can produce significant biases both in the 230 Th normalization method and in the interpretation of sediment 231 Pa/ 230 Th records. Our findings yield insights into the influence of sediment resuspension and transport on 231 Pa and 230 Th in the deep ocean and highlight the need for considering these processes in paleoceanographic applications.

Nepheloid layer↗

Exploitation of ERTS-1 imagery utilizing snow enhancement techniques

Photogeological analysis of ERTS-simulation and ERTS-1 imagery of snowcovered terrain within the ERAP Feather River site and within the New England (ERTS) test area provided new fracture detail which does not appear on available geological maps. Comparative analysis of snowfree ERTS-1 images has demonstrated that MSS Bands 5 and 7 supply the greatest amount of geological fracture detail. Interpretation of the first snow-covered ERTS-1 images in correlation with ground snow depth data indicates that a heavy blanket of snow (more than 9 inches) accentuates major structural features while a light "dusting", (less than 1 inch) accentuates more subtle topographic expressions. An effective mail-based method for acquiring timely ground-truth (snowdepth) information was established and provides a ready correlation of fracture detail with snow depth so as to establish the working limits of the technique. The method is both efficient and inexpensive compared with the cost of similarly scaled direct field observations.

Wobber, F. J.↗

An interdisciplinary study of the estuarine and coastal oceanography of Block Island Sound and adjacent New York coastal waters

The author has identified the following significant results. The synoptic repetitive coverage of the multispectral imagery from the ERTS-1 satellite, when photographically reprocessed using the state-of-the-art techniques, has given indication of spectral differences in Block Island and adjacent New England waters which were heretofore unknown. Of particular interest was the possible detection of relatively small amounts of phytoplankton prior to the occurrence of the red tide in Massachusetts waters. Preparation of spatial and temporal hydrographic charts using ERTS-1 imagery and ground truth analysis will hopefully determine the environmental impact on New York coastal waters.

Yost, E.↗

Quantification of Energy Savings and Demand Reduction for a Heat Pump Integrated with Thermal Energy Storage (Final Report)

To mitigate the variation in demand on the electric grid, thermal energy storage (TES) is an alternative to electric batteries or installing new peaking power plants. Stakeholders and policy makers across the United States have expressed interests in promoting TES, as demonstrated by the US Department of Energy’s Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings program and the efforts of various state legislatures. However, the cost value provided by TES are unclear. If reliable cost benefits were determined, stakeholders would have a clearer picture of the financial returns that can be gained from their investment in TES. The study in this report is conducted by ORNL with collaboration with Emerson the Helix Innovation Center. In the first part of this report, EnergyPlus was used to perform whole-building simulations for two residential buildings in Indianapolis and Atlanta. The HVAC system in both buildings were equipped with phase change material TES. The TES tank was charged in off-peak hours and discharged in peak hours to perform load shifting. First, the economic value implied by existing time-of-use (TOU) rates offered by utility companies was analyzed via whole-building simulation. Second, existing demand reduction (DR) incentives sourced from 3 different electrical grid administrators (i.e., California, Texas, and New England region) were surveyed to determine their implied value. The study suggests that the traditional value analysis that focuses on ROI for the building owner significantly undervalues TES technology making economic viability difficult. A more comprehensive value analysis that includes peak demand management and deferred capital for peaking power plants shows that TES should be economically viable but here the value is greater for the utility and requires large market penetration and aggregation to fully realize the benefits. Therefore, to facilitate commercialization, new business models are needed that include a broader range of stakeholders and distribute the value of TES proportionally. In the 2 nd part of this project, the benefits of a novel phase change material (PCM) integrated heat pump configuration were evaluated via detailed component based simulation. A one-dimensional PCM heat exchanger model which discretizes the PCM tank and refrigerant tubes into small control volumes is developed. Each control volume can have different PCM temperatures, PCM properties, and heat transfer coefficients. The PCM tank is charged by a wrapped tank condenser and discharged by an internal refrigerant coil. The PCM heat exchanger model is integrated into DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model for heat pump system simulation. To demonstrate the performance of the PCM integrated heat pump, a case study in Chicago was performed. A Time-of-Use utility structure-based control strategy is implemented to schedule the PCM tank charging and discharging mode switching. Compared with a conventional electric heat pump, the PCM integrated heat pump shows superior performance on load shifting and utility cost reduction. As a result, the proposed system demonstrates 24.6% utility saving for cooling application and 25.8% utility saving for heating application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Simple Technique for Creating Regional Composites of Sea Surface Temperature from MODIS for Use in Operational Mesoscale NWP

This paper describes a simple technique for creating regional, high-resolution, daytime and nighttime composites of sea surface temperature (SST) for use in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP). The composites are based on observations from NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Aqua and Terra. The data used typically are available nearly in real time, are applicable anywhere on the globe, and are capable of roughly representing the diurnal cycle in SST. The composites resolution is much higher than that of many other standard SST products used for operational NWP, including the low- and high-resolution Real-Time Global (RTG) analyses. The difference in resolution is key because several studies have shown that highly resolved SSTs are important for driving the air sea interactions that shape patterns of static stability, vertical and horizontal wind shear, and divergence in the planetary boundary layer. The MODIS-based composites are compared to in situ observations from buoys and other platforms operated by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) off the coasts of New England, the mid-Atlantic, and Florida. Mean differences, mean absolute differences, and root-mean-square differences between the composites and the NDBC observations are all within tenths of a degree of those calculated between RTG analyses and the NDBC observations. This is true whether or not one accounts for the mean offset between the skin temperatures of the MODIS dataset and the bulk temperatures of the NDBC observations and RTG analyses. Near the coast, the MODIS-based composites tend to agree more with NDBC observations than do the RTG analyses. The opposite is true away from the coast. All of these differences in point-wise comparisons among the SST datasets are small compared to the 61.08C accuracy of the NDBC SST sensors. Because skin-temperature variations from land to water so strongly affect the development and life cycle of the sea breeze, this phenomenon was chosen for demonstrating the use of the MODIS-based composite in an NWP model. A simulated sea breeze in the vicinity of New York City and Long Island shows a small, net, but far from universal improvement when MODIS-based composites are used in place of RTG analyses. The timing of the sea breeze s arrival is more accurate at some stations, and the near-surface temperature, wind, and humidity within the breeze are more realistic.

Knievel, Jason C.↗

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

aerosol optical depth↗

USACE FUSRAP Records Management Challenges in the Digital Age - 20242

In late 2016, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a Headquarters-supported nationwide records management initiative managed by the USACE-New England District to address the digitization and organization of Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) project files. This initiative will prepare USACE FUSRAP for moving toward a fully electronic system of records management. Additionally, the records management initiative streamlines the process and prepares the Administrative Record (AR) and Permanent Record (PR) file for transfer from USACE to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Office of Legacy Management (LM) following project closeout. Over the past couple of years, USACE and DOE-LM have been working to finalize a joint guidance document to assist in the FUSRAP records transition process. However, there remain key records management topics that require further discussion and development. Specifically, these topics include the implementation, process, and procedure for the capture of social media records and compliance with Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act of 1973 (29 USC 794d), as amended. Due to advances in technology and the ease of communication it provides, USACE is using social media more often to interface with the public than 5, 10 or 15 years ago. The identification and capture of these records are challenging because it requires each USACE district or producer of a record to track what has been released through social media so that it can be captured as part of the AR or PR. USACE is currently evaluating processes and procedures for social media records capture. This paper explores how social media is being used by USACE across FUSRAP projects and best practices for the capture of social media records. Public accessibility to the project AR is required under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act, which USACE FUSRAP must follow. As USACE FUSRAP ARs are converted to a digital format, greater accessibility to the files can be provided through web sites or other electronic media. However, Section 508 of the Rehabilitation Act must be considered when releasing electronic files to the public. Under Section 508, government agencies must ensure that information is made available to the public in a format that provides equal access to persons with disabilities. This paper discusses the electronic records requirements under Section 508 and addresses broad implementation of compliance across large digital records sets. Records management challenges are presented in the context of the FUSRAP records management program; however, these records management considerations and best practices are applicable across all Federal agency records management programs. Examples presented will further aid in understanding electronic records requirements that may be included on new USACE FUSRAP contracts as well as upcoming National Archives Records Administration requirements that will move us toward an electronic government. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Dynamic consensus and extended high gain observers as a tool to achieve practical frequency synchronization in power systems under unknown time-varying power demand

In this paper, we consider the frequency synchronization problem in a network of lossless, connected, and network-reduced power system. Frequency synchronization is an important problem in power systems as frequency deviation can lead to degraded power quality, tripping of generators, etc. We present a load-estimator-based consensus algorithm in a network of fourth-order generator models that achieves practical frequency synchronization in the presence of unknown time-varying power demand. We do not assume that the demand is generated by a known model. We follow a multiple time-scale approach for the stability analysis. It is shown that synchronization is achieved for the case of constant power demand, by showing that the system is exponentially stable. Furthermore, for the case of time-varying power demand, we show the error trajectories are ultimately bounded, and the synchronization error is proportional to an upper bound on the derivative of the time-varying power demand. We simulate the controller performance on a four area network which is equivalent to the IEEE New England 39-Bus system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating in situ environmental covariates in an American lobster catch model to improve impact assessment

The installation and operation of floating offshore wind power is an integral component of societal transition to renewable energy generation where fixed bottom offshore wind is not possible. However, it will cause unique ecosystem changes. To disentangle the effects of offshore wind installations from the concurrent effects of climate change and the fishing practices on commercially significant resources, we must develop detailed characterizations of the resources before development occurs. In the Gulf of Maine, American lobster is the most commercially and culturally important fishery. At the time of writing, this is the largest fishery by value in North America. Our understanding of baseline localized parameters (such as catch per trap at the spatial scale of individual turbines) should be informed by relationships to environmental, biological, and survey-specific functional drivers of catch. A more mechanistic understanding of catch will allow for strategic adjustments to Post- Deployment fishery responses and ultimately, the development of research- and commercial-scale floating offshore wind development. Here, we used survey data from the New England Aqua Ventus Pre-Construction Commercial Trapping Survey to develop Generalized Additive Models describing seasonal catch per trap for legal and sublegal lobsters. We found fall catch to be nearly twice that of spring. Bottom temperature dynamics could be used to predict catch, and the Fall survey was associated with a warmer temperature regime. By using analytical tools that incorporate environmental heterogeneity, we developed monitoring methods from preconstruction baseline data that will be applicable over the post-construction operating period of an offshore wind farm.

BACI↗

Rolling Optimization of Transmission Network Recovery and Load Restoration Considering Hybrid Wind-Storage System and Cold Load Pickup

A common solution to deal with the stochasticity introduced by fast-ramping wind power integration is to equip wind farms (WFs) with energy storage systems (ESSs) to formulate hybrid WF-ESSs. In addition to leveling off wind power fluctuations during normal operations, a hybrid WF-ESS can be a flexible power source to accumulate the power system restoration. In this paper, we propose a rolling optimization model for transmission network recovery and load restoration considering the contributions of WF-ESSs. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed integer linear programming problem that simultaneously optimizes the amount and location of restorable load blocks as well as the restoration lines. The cold load pickup features of interrupted loads considering the outage duration are modeled in detail. A chance-constrained method is employed to deal with the uncertainty of wind power, and a rolling horizon-based framework is adopted to reduce the influence of forecast error. Case studies are conducted on both New England 39-bus system and part of a provincial power system in China. The results show that the load restoration process can be significantly accelerated by employing the proposed method and contributions of hybrid WF-ESSs to power system restoration are validated.

chance-constrained optimization↗

A census of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments across the conterminous United States

Hydropower provides reliable and secure electricity and contributes significantly to the flexibility and stability of the US electricity grid. Hydropower dams generally are aquatic barriers and hazards to migratory fish in rivers. Fish passage facilities mitigate risks from hydropower to migratory fish, but information on these facilities is incomplete for the conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we present the first CONUS-scale dataset of fish passage facilities at US hydropower developments in over 30 years. The existence of fish passage facilities (presence or absence) was specified for 1909 hydropower features, 390 of which had at least one facility. Most features had a single passage facility that provided passage in only one direction, with downstream being more common than upstream passage. Bypasses and ladders accounted for 60 % of the fish passage facility types. While we documented 659 fish passage facilities across CONUS, facilities were most common in the New England, Pacific Northwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions. In general, fish passage facilities were more common at features that were closer to the ocean, at lower elevations, and at shorter dams, but not related to installed electrical generation capacity. Hydrologic sub-basins containing salmonids also contained the largest number of hydropower features, but the proportion of features with passage was generally higher in sub-basins containing multiple migratory taxa. This census provides valuable information on existing fish passage mitigation and is a benchmark to gauge progress toward a modernized hydropower fleet that provides affordable, reliable energy while protecting fishery resources and river ecosystems.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DeepONet-grid-UQ: A trustworthy deep operator framework for predicting the power grid’s post-fault trajectories

This paper proposes a novel data-driven method for the reliable prediction of the power grid’s post-fault trajectories, i.e., the power grid’s dynamic response after a disturbance or fault. Here, the proposed method is based on the recently proposed concept of Deep Operator Networks (DeepONets). Unlike traditional neural networks that learn to approximate functions, DeepONets are designed to approximate nonlinear operators, i.e., mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces. Under this operator framework, we design a novel and efficient DeepONet that (i) takes as inputs the trajectories collected before and during the fault and (ii) outputs the predicted post-fault trajectories. In addition, we endow our method with the much-needed ability to balance efficiency with reliable/trustworthy predictions via uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose and compare two novel methods that enable quantifying the predictive uncertainty. First, we propose a Bayesian DeepONet (B-DeepONet) that uses stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the DeepONet trainable parameters. Then, we design a Probabilistic DeepONet (Prob-DeepONet) that uses a probabilistic training strategy to enable quantifying uncertainty at virtually no extra computational cost. Finally, we validate the proposed methods’ predictive power and uncertainty quantification capability using the New York-New England power grid model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reactivity of CO 2 with Utica, Marcellus, Barnett, and Eagle Ford Shales and Impact on Permeability

We report that in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while recovering hydrocarbons from unconventional shale formations, processes that make use of carbon dioxide to enhance oil recovery while storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) should be considered. Here, we examine samples from three shale basins across the United States (Utica and Marcellus Shales in the Appalachian Basin, Barnett Shale in the Bend Arch-Ft. Worth Basin, and Eagle Ford in the Western Gulf Basin) to address the following questions: (1) do changes from reaction with CO 2 and fluids at the micrometer and nanometer scale alter flow pathways and, in turn, impact hydrocarbon production, CO 2 storage, and seal integrity and (2) can CO 2 or fluid reactivity be predicted based on physical or chemical properties of shale formations? Experiments were conducted at 40 °C and 10.3 MPa to characterize the interaction between CO 2 and shale using X-ray diffraction (XRD), carbon and sulfur analysis, in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), feature relocation scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), mercury (Hg) intrusion porosimetry, and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface area and pore size analysis coupled with density functional theory (DFT) methods. Changes in mechanical, physical, and flow properties of shale cores due to CO 2 exposure were addressed using a New England Research Autolab 1500 and Xenon X-ray computed tomography (CT) scanning. Results showed that CO 2 did not promote significant reactivity with the shale if water was not present; only shales with swelling clays or residual interstitial pore water reacted with dry CO 2 to promote reactivity in shale. When water was added as a reactant, CO 2 formed carbonic acid and reacted with the shale to dissolve carbonate pockets, etched and pitted the shale matrix surfaces, and increased the microporosity and decreased nanoporosity. Porosity and permeability increased appreciably in core shale samples after exposure to CO 2 saturated fluid due to dissolution of carbonate. Shale mechanical properties were not altered. Trends were not observed that could tie CO 2 or fluid reactivity to physical or chemical properties of the shale formations at the basin scale from the samples we examined. However, if the shale contained significant amounts of carbonate and water was available to react with the CO 2 , pore sizes were altered in the matrix and permeability and porosity increased.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Misaligned Wind‐Waves Behind Atmospheric Cold Fronts

Abstract Atmospheric fronts embedded in extratropical cyclones are high‐impact weather phenomena, contributing significantly to mid‐latitude winter precipitation. The three vital characteristics of the atmospheric fronts, high wind speeds, abrupt change in wind direction, and rapid translation, force the induced surface waves to be misaligned with winds exclusively behind the cold fronts. The effects of the misaligned waves under atmospheric cold fronts on air‐sea fluxes remain undocumented. Using the multi‐year in situ near‐surface observations and direct covariance flux measurements from the Pioneer Array off the coast of New England, we find that the majority of the passing cold fronts generate misaligned waves behind the cold front. Once generated, the waves remain misaligned, on average, for about 8 hr. The parameterized effect of misaligned waves in a fully coupled model significantly increases the roughness length (185%), drag coefficient (19%), and air‐sea momentum flux (11%). The increased surface drag reduces the wind speeds in the surface layer. The upward turbulent heat flux is weakly decreased by the misaligned waves because of the decrease in temperature and humidity scaling parameters being greater than the increase in friction velocity. The misaligned wave effect is not accurately represented in a commonly used wave‐based bulk flux algorithm. Yet, considering this effect in the current formulation improves the overall accuracy of parameterized momentum flux estimates. The results imply that better representing a directional wind‐wave coupling in the bulk formula of the numerical models may help improve the air‐sea interaction simulations under the passing atmospheric fronts in the mid‐latitudes.

Oceanography↗

Simulation of sugar kelp ( Saccharina latissima ) breeding guided by practices to accelerate genetic gains

Abstract Though Saccharina japonica cultivation has been established for many decades in East Asian countries, the domestication process of sugar kelp (Saccharina latissima) in the Northeast United States is still at its infancy. In this study, by using data from our breeding experience, we will demonstrate how obstacles for accelerated genetic gain can be assessed using simulation approaches that inform resource allocation decisions. Thus far, we have used 140 wild sporophytes that were sampled in 2018 from the northern Gulf of Maine to southern New England. From these sporophytes, we sampled gametophytes and made and evaluated over 600 progeny sporophytes from crosses among the gametophytes in 2019 and 2020. The biphasic life cycle of kelp gives a great advantage in selective breeding as we can potentially select both on the sporophytes and gametophytes. However, several obstacles exist, such as the amount of time it takes to complete a breeding cycle, the number of gametophytes that can be maintained in the laboratory, and whether positive selection can be conducted on farm-tested sporophytes. Using the Gulf of Maine population characteristics for heritability and effective population size, we simulated a founder population of 1,000 individuals and evaluated the impact of overcoming these obstacles on rate of genetic gain. Our results showed that key factors to improve current genetic gain rely mainly on our ability to induce reproduction of the best farm-tested sporophytes, and to accelerate the clonal vegetative growth of released gametophytes so that enough gametophyte biomass is ready for making crosses by the next growing season. Overcoming these challenges could improve rates of genetic gain more than 2-fold. Future research should focus on conditions favorable for inducing spring reproduction, and on increasing the amount of gametophyte tissue available in time to make fall crosses in the same year.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Machine Learning Framework to Deconstruct the Primary Drivers for Electricity Market Price Events

As the electricity grid is moving towards a 100% Renewable Energy Source Bulk Power Grid, the overall operations of the power system operations and electricity markets are changing. The electricity markets are not only dispatching resources economically but also taking into account various controllable actions like renewable curtailment, transmission congestion mitigation, and energy storage optimization to make sure the grid is operating reliably. As a result, price formations in electricity markets have become quite complex. Traditional root cause analysis and statistical approaches are rendered inapplicable to analyze and infer the main drivers behind price formation in the modern grid and markets with variable renewable energy (VRE). In this paper, we propose a machine learning analysis framework to deconstruct some primary drivers for price formation in modern electricity markets with high renewable energy and the outcomes can be utilized for various critical aspects of market design, renewable dispatch and curtailment, operations, and cyber-security applications. The framework can be applied to any ISO or market data and in this paper it is applied to open-source publicly available datasets from California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and ISO New England.

machine learning (ML), electricity markets, Renewa↗