Derivation and evaluation of Landsat-derived annual aboveground biomass maps for Arctic and Boreal North America, 1984-2022
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Liang, Wanwan↗
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Joint CO 2 Mole Fraction and Flux Analysis Confirms Missing Processes in CASA Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over North America
Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) play a key role in the detection and attribution of carbon cycle processes at local to global scales and in projections of the coupled carbon-climate system. TBM evaluation commonly involves direct comparison to eddy-covariance flux measurements. This study uses atmospheric CO 2 mole fraction ([CO 2 ]) measured in situ from aircraft and tower, in addition to flux-measurements from summer 2016 to evaluate the CASA TBM. WRF-Chem is used to simulate [CO 2 ] using biogenic CO 2 fluxes from a CASA parameter-based ensemble and CarbonTracker version 2017 (CT2017) in addition to transport and CO 2 boundary condition ensembles. The resulting “super ensemble” of modeled [CO 2 ] demonstrates that the biosphere introduces the majority of uncertainty to the simulations. Both aircraft and tower [CO 2 ] data show that the CASA ensemble net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO 2 is biased high (NEE too positive) and identify the maximum light use efficiency E max a key parameter that drives the spread of the CASA ensemble in summer 2016. These findings are verified with flux-measurements. The direct comparison of the CASA flux ensemble with flux-measurements confirms missing sink processes in CASA. Separating the daytime and nighttime flux, we discover that the underestimated net uptake results from missing sink processes that result in overestimation of respiration. NEE biases are smaller in the CT2017 posterior biogenic fluxes, which assimilates observed [CO 2 ]. Flux tower analyses, however, reveal an unrealistic overestimation of nighttime respiration in CT2017 due to the limitation of inversion strategy.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America
Land use and land cover change (LULCC) represents a key process of human-Earth system interaction and has profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycling. As a key input for ecosystem models, future gridded LULCC data is typically spatially downscaled from regional LULCC projections by integrated assessment models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). The uncertainty associated with the different spatial downscaling methods and its impacts on the subsequent model projections have been historically ignored and rarely examined. This study investigated this problem using two representative spatial downscaling methods and focused on their impacts on the carbon cycle over the Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain, where extensive LULCC is expected. Specifically, we used the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) and the Demeter model to generate 0.25° gridded LULCC data (i.e., LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , respectively) with the same input of regional LULCC projections from GCAM, under both the low (i.e., SSP126) and high (i.e., SSP585) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The two sets of downscaled LULCC were used to drive the Community Land Model version 5 and prognostically simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle dynamics over the 21st century. The results suggest large spatial-temporal differences between LULCC FLUS and LULCC Demeter , and the spatial distributions of the needleleaf evergreen boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal tree, broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub, and C3 arctic grass are particularly different under both SSP126 and SSP585. Additionally, the spatiotemporal differences are larger under SSP126 than SSP585, due to more intensive LULCC under SSP126 than SSP585 from GCAM projection. The differences in LULCC further lead to large discrepancies in the spatial patterns of projected gross primary productivity, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange, which represent more than 79% of the contributions of future LULCC in 2100. Additionally, the difference in carbon flux under SSP126 is generally larger than those under SSP585. This study highlights the importance of considering the uncertainties induced by the spatial downscaling process in future LULCC projections and carbon cycle simulations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Interconnection of Three Single-Phase Feeders in North America Distribution Systems
This paper proposes a solution for maintaining power balance within all three phases at residential level during islanded mode of operation. Grid abnormalities can lead to isolating the residential microgrid from the main grid, and as a result, distributed generation (DG) units take the full responsibility of supplying local loads. However, in such condition, some phases might face the challenge of meeting local load demand due to the lack of enough power generation, resulting in voltage drop and frequency variation across household loads. In order to resolve this issue, the proposed method in this paper seamlessly interconnects all three single-phase feeders during islanded mode and forms a unified single-phase residential microgrid. Consequently, the load demands in all three phases are met, leading to enhanced voltage and frequency profiles. For this purpose, a seamless transition algorithm is defined which monitors the system condition in real time, and coordinates the operation of all inverter-based DG units in residential microgrid accordingly during transitions. Case study results are provided to verify the validity of proposed method.
Pilehvar, Mohsen S.↗
Biomass yield in a genetically diverse Miscanthus sacchariflorus germplasm panel phenotyped at five locations in Asia, North America, and Europe
Abstract Miscanthus is a high‐yielding bioenergy crop that is broadly adapted to temperate and tropical environments. Commercial cultivation of Miscanthus is predominantly limited to a single sterile triploid clone of Miscanthus × giganteus , a hybrid between Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis. To expand the genetic base of M. × giganteus , the substantial diversity within its progenitor species should be used for cultivar improvement and diversification. Here, we phenotyped a diversity panel of 605 M. sacchariflorus from six previously described genetic groups and 27 M. × giganteus genotypes for dry biomass yield and 16 yield‐component traits, in field trials grown over 3 years at one subtropical location (Zhuji, China) and four temperate locations (Foulum, Denmark; Sapporo, Japan; Urbana, Illinois; and Chuncheon, South Korea). There was considerable diversity in yield and yield‐component traits among and within genetic groups of M. sacchariflorus , and across the five locations. Biomass yield of M. sacchariflorus ranged from 0.003 to 34.0 Mg ha −1 in year 3. Variation among the genetic groups was typically greater than within, so selection of genetic group should be an important first step for breeding with M. sacchariflorus . The Yangtze 2x genetic group (=ssp. lutarioriparius ) of M. sacchariflorus had the tallest and thickest culms at all locations tested. Notably, the Yangtze 2x genetic group's exceptional culm length and yield potential were driven primarily by a large number of nodes (>29 nodes culm −1 average over all locations), which was consistent with the especially late flowering of this group. The S Japan 4x, the N China/Korea/Russia 4x, and the N China 2x genetic groups were also promising genetic resources for biomass yield, culm length, and culm thickness, especially for temperate environments. Culm length was the best indicator of yield potential in M. sacchariflorus . These results will inform breeders' selection of M. sacchariflorus genotypes for population improvement and adaptation to target production environments.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Enabling kilometer-scale E3SM land model simulation over North America: A new integrated framework solution
This study introduces a novel framework designed to enhance the performance, scalability, and portability of the kilometer-scale E3SM Land Model (km-ELM) within the E3SM modeling infrastructure. By seamlessly integrating cutting-edge data tools, we address existing challenges such as slow performance, limited scalability, and difficulties in software integration in current data-driven ELM simulation over large geographic areas. Our innovative approach leverages the KiloCraft data toolkit to generate unified inputs for simulations ranging from a single-cite case, to a 72,083-cell regional case to a continental configuration encompassing 21.6 million land grid cells at a 1 km × 1 km resolution. We conduct extensive strong- and weak-scaling experiments on three state-of-the-art supercomputers, utilizing up to 100,800 CPU cores across 2400 compute nodes to evaluate end-to-end metrics including wall-clock time, simulation-years-per-day (SYPD), initialization costs, and I/O throughput. Our results reveal the land (LND) component’s efficient scaling, demonstrating near-ideal weak scaling and strong-scaling parallel efficiencies reaching up to 87% at 50,400 cores. We confirm portability and reproducibility through bitwise-equivalent outputs across different machines using identical inputs over supported machines. Notably, at extreme scales, we identify I/O as a critical bottleneck and that leads to effective solution with the SCORPIO/ADIOS stack. Collectively, these findings validate the deployment of km-ELM at a continental scale with high parallel efficiency and provide essential guidance on configuration, decomposition, and I/O settings for optimized kilometer-scale land simulations in E3SM. This work emphasizes the innovative design and practical solutions that enhance the operational capabilities of km-ELM, focusing on software performance and scalability while leaving detailed scientific evaluations of simulated land processes for future investigations.
E3SM land model (ELM), km-ELM, scalability, perfor↗
Quantifying Variability and Controls of Riverine Dissolved Organic Carbon Exported to Arctic Coastal Margins of North America (Final Report)
This project involved implementation and application of a coupled permafrost hydrology and dissolved organic carbon process models to investigate how spatial and seasonal variations in terrestrial hydrology and soil freeze/thaw dynamics influence the mobilization, loading, and export of organic carbon to the stream network for selected arctic basins across northern Alaska and northwest Canada. The model simulations were constrained by detailed observations of in- stream chemistry, soil active layer profile moisture and temperature dynamics, streamflow, soil carbon inventories and satellite microwave remote sensing based assessments of surface soil freeze-thaw dynamics. We developed and applied the numerical modeling and data analysis, incorporating observed data for calibration and validation, in order to investigate the terrestrial hydrology, permafrost dynamics, and associated DOC production and loading to rivers across a region encompassing watersheds draining to the coast. The project produced six publications and three datasets archived in public repositories.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Hydrogen Industry/Governmental Drivers/Regulatory Issues (North America Perspective)
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Lord, Anna Snider↗
Regional Subsurface Stress Assessment for CO 2 Storage in Candidate Basal Reservoirs within the Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Region of North America
Conference presentation at Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference 2024, Houston, Texas, March 11–13, 2024. A screening-level regional evaluation of basement and mechanical overburden stress across the geologically diverse Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership Initiative region was conducted. The main objective of the project was to assess potential basement fault reactivation and better understand technical uncertainties pertaining to CO 2 storage in candidate basal reservoirs.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
LaserNetUS: A Proposal to Advance North America’s First High Intensity Laser Research Network Final Report
LaserNetUS Collaborative Network established in 2018 is a network of high-power laser facilities supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and operating effectively as a user facility. Its mission is to advance and promote intense laser science and applications by providing scientists and students with broad access to unique facilities and enabling technologies, advancing the frontiers of laser-science research, and fostering collaboration among researchers and networks from around the world. Users who submit proposals through an annual call are selected by an external and independent proposal review panel (PRP) not involving personnel from any of the facilities.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Summary of Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Systems and Incident Data in North America
Pipelines are historically seen as the primary transportation mode for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) streams in the context of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and oil and gas industries. Pipeline transmission of CO 2 over longer distances is regarded as most efficient and economical when the CO 2 is in the dense phase, i.e., in liquid or supercritical regime, due to transporting CO 2 in dense phase that allows for a smaller-diameter pipeline to move a given flow, which optimizes project cost.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America
We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.
climate change↗
A view of the pan‐genome of domesticated Cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata [L.] Walp.)
Abstract Cowpea, Vigna unguiculata L . Walp., is a diploid warm‐season legume of critical importance as both food and fodder in sub‐Saharan Africa. This species is also grown in Northern Africa, Europe, Latin America, North America, and East to Southeast Asia. To capture the genomic diversity of domesticates of this important legume, de novo genome assemblies were produced for representatives of six subpopulations of cultivated cowpea identified previously from genotyping of several hundred diverse accessions. In the most complete assembly (IT97K‐499‐35), 26,026 core and 4963 noncore genes were identified, with 35,436 pan genes when considering all seven accessions. GO terms associated with response to stress and defense response were highly enriched among the noncore genes, while core genes were enriched in terms related to transcription factor activity, and transport and metabolic processes. Over 5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) relative to each assembly and over 40 structural variants >1 Mb in size were identified by comparing genomes. Vu10 was the chromosome with the highest frequency of SNPs, and Vu04 had the most structural variants. Noncore genes harbor a larger proportion of potentially disruptive variants than core genes, including missense, stop gain, and frameshift mutations; this suggests that noncore genes substantially contribute to diversity within domesticated cowpea.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Upstream surface roughness and terrain are strong drivers of contrast in tornado potential between North and South America
Central North America is the global hotspot for tornadoes, fueled by elevated terrain of the Rockies to the west and a source of warm, moist air from equatorward oceans. This conventional wisdom argues that central South America, with the Andes to the west and Amazon basin to the north, should have a “tornado alley” at least as active as central North America. Central South America has frequent severe thunderstorms yet relatively few tornadoes. Here, we show that conventional wisdom is missing an important ingredient specific to tornadoes: a smooth, flat ocean-like upstream surface. Using global climate model experiments, we show that central South American tornado potential substantially increases if its equatorward land surface is smoothed and flattened to be ocean-like. Similarly, we show that central North American tornado potential substantially decreases if its equatorward ocean surface is roughened to values comparable to forested land. A rough upstream surface suppresses the formation of tornadic environments principally by weakening the poleward low-level winds, characterized by a weakened low-level jet east of the mountain range. Results are shown to be robust for any midlatitude landmass using idealized experiments with a simplified continent and mountain range. Our findings indicate that large-scale upstream surface roughness is likely a first-order driver of the strong contrast in tornado potential between North and South America.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A regional (land–ocean) comparison of the seasonal to decadal variability of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream 1871–2011
Seasonal to decadal variations in Northern Hemisphere jet stream latitude and speed over land (Eurasia, North America) and oceanic (North Atlantic, North Pacific) regions are presented for the period 1871–2011 from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis dataset. Significant regional differences are seen on seasonal to decadal timescales. Seasonally, the jet latitude range is lower over the oceans compared to land, reduced from 20° over Eurasia to 10° over the North Atlantic where the ocean meridional heat transport is greatest. The mean jet latitude range is at a minimum in winter (DJF), particularly along the western boundary of the North Pacific and North Atlantic, where the land-sea contrast and SST gradients are strongest. The 141-year trends in jet latitude and speed show differences on a regional basis. The North Atlantic has significant increasing jet latitude trends in all seasons, up to 3° in winter. Eurasia has significant increasing trends in winter and summer, however, no increase is seen across the North Pacific or North America. Jet speed shows significant increases evident in winter (up to 4.7 ms –1 ), spring and autumn over the North Atlantic, Eurasia and North America however, over the North Pacific no increase is observed. Long term trends are generally overlaid by multidecadal variability, particularly evident in the North Pacific, where 20-year variability in jet latitude and jet speed are seen, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation which explains 50% of the winter variance in jet latitude since 1940. The results highlight that northern hemisphere jet variability and trends differ on a regional basis (North Atlantic, North Pacific, Eurasia and North America) on seasonal to decadal timescales, suggesting that different mechanisms are influencing the jet latitude and speed. This is important from a climate modelling perspective and for climate predictions in the near and longer term.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models
Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.
Wildfire, Earth system models↗