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Wildfires are significant sources of carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere.
Regional triplication waveforms of five intermediate-depth events are modeled to simultaneously obtain the compressional (P) and shear (SH) wave velocity structure beneath northwestern Pacific subduction zone. Both the P- and SH-wave velocity models for three different sub-regions show a low-velocity layer (LVL) with a thickness of ~55-80 km lying above the 410-km discontinuity with a ~900 km lateral extent from the Japan Sea to the northeastern Asian continental margin. With the dihedral angle approaching to zero around 400 km, a minute amount of melt atop the 410-km discontinuity caused by the hydrous slab might completely wet olivine grain boundaries and result in a low seismic velocity layer in this specific subduction zone. This mechanism suggests that the 410-LVL is a low viscosity zone that would partially decouple the upper mantle from the transition zone. We infer that the widespread 410-LVL provides evidence for a water-bearing mantle transition zone beneath the western Pacific subduction zone.
Abstract The variations of soil structure and soil physical–chemical properties in the process of alpine grassland desertification were revealed, and the indicators of grassland desertification were put forward in order to deepen the understanding of the law of degradation succession and development of alpine grassland. It was used to provide scientific basis for ecological restoration and improvement of ecological service function of alpine grassland. With severe desertification alpine grassland as the core in the Hongyuan County, Tibetan Qiang Autonomous Prefecture of Ngawa, Sichuan Province, China, along both the directions of wetland and arid grassland, the heterogeneity of soil structure and soil fertility in both directions was studied by the analysis of the mean weight diameter (MWD), geometric mean diameter (GMD), >0.25 mm aggregate content ( R 0.25 ), fractal dimension ( D ), soil bulk density, soil moisture content, and soil nutrients. Our results showed that MWD, GMD, and R 0.25 all gradually increased, but the D decreased with the reduction in the degree of desertification in the arid grassland and wetland, resulting in the strong stability of soil structure. The decreasing rate of the D in the direction of arid grassland was faster than that of wetland. Therefore, soil structure stability and erosion resistance in the direction of arid grassland were stronger than that of wetland soil; the D had different response to aggregates with different particle sizes. The aggregate less than 0.25 mm ( r = 0.981, P < 0.01) and 1–2 mm ( r = −0.79, P < 0.01) had the largest responses in the direction of the arid grassland and wetland, respectively; the aggregate more than 1 mm and 1–2 mm can be used as indicators to evaluate desertification of the soil in the direction of the arid grassland and wetland, respectively. The higher the content of the indicating aggregates, the weaker the degree of the desertification.
Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.
Abstract Recent studies suggest that steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss produced from local hatchery‐origin (HOR) adults have lower lifetime fitness than their natural‐origin (NOR) counterparts. To increase our understanding of this pattern, we compared age‐1 parr size and distribution produced by a local integrated population of HOR and NOR adults spawning naturally across a range of environmental conditions. Across 8 years, we used genetic parentage assignments and field measurements of parr in conjunction with creek temperature and flow data to find small, nonbiologically significant differences in size between parr of different parent origins. This suggests that parr produced by HOR adults are acquiring enough resources to grow at a rate similar to that of parr produced by NOR adults. In contrast to origin, we found strong positive associations between mean size of parr and annual mean water temperature and summer flow. Additionally, the distribution of parr was similar and HOR‐produced parr were not skewed relative to the location of the hatchery. Parr occupying the full extent of accessible and suitable habitat might be a positive outcome for hatchery programs seeking to supplement an existing population or replace an extirpated population. However, these results also imply that HOR fish could be competing with NOR fish for food and space, which might be less desirable if the goal of the hatchery program is harvest and not supplementation. Our results highlight the importance of clearly articulated goals for the hatchery program, as the observed pattern could be deemed a benefit or a risk depending on the hatchery's purpose. Lastly, projections for higher water temperatures and reduced summer flows, when considered in the context of the correlations we observed for size of parr, imply that coastal steelhead populations could start experiencing negative climate impacts with respect to steelhead parr growth metrics during the summer in the next few decades.
Hybrid poplar demonstration-scale farms were managed in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and California to establish management practices, yields, harvesting methods, and the economics of biomass production. Yield during the 2-year establishment cycle averaged 3.5 dry Mg ha –1 year –1 increasing to 11.6 Mg ha –1 year –1 in the ensuing 3-year coppice cycle. Populus deltoides (Bartram ex Marsh.) × P. maximowiczii (Henry) varieties preformed best in Oregon during the coppice cycle with the best variety producing 18.1 Mg ha –1 year –1 , while P. ×generosa (Henry) varieties maximized yields in Washington at 22.1 Mg ha –1 year –1 . P. ×canadensis (Moench) varieties excelled in Idaho and California with upper yields of 13.6 Mg ha –1 year –1 and 12.9 Mg ha –1 year –1 , respectively. Stands were cut with a single-pass harvester 2 years after planting and a second time after 3 years of coppice growth; material capacity, limited by poor ground conditions, varied between 21.7 to 31.3 green Mg h –1 . Chemical composition averaged 1.87% inorganics, 7.74% extractives, 26.90% lignin, 38.07% glucan, 13.66% xylan, 1.61% galactan, 1.14% arabinan, and 2.76% mannan. Production costs (USD) projected over a 20-year rotation of six coppice cycles were $71.81 Mg –1 in Washington, $89.91 Mg –1 in Oregon, $98.76 Mg–1 in Idaho, and 179.07 Mg–1 in California. Here, land rental, establishment, crop care, harvest, transportation, and land restoration, respectively, accounted for 23%, 5%, 19%, 30%, 17%, and 6% of total feedstock cost. Farms were successfully restored to conditions existing before poplar conversion. In the absence of fertilization, increases in soil pH and decreases in nitrate-nitrogen, zinc, iron, and organic matter were consistently noted but could not be associated with poplar production alone.
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Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.
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Abstract Strong winds that accentuated a fire outbreak in the western United States in early September of 2020 resulted from an atmospheric wave train that spanned the Pacific Ocean. Days before the atmospheric waves developed in the United States, three western Pacific tropical cyclones (typhoons) underwent an extratropical transition over Korea within an unprecedentedly short span of 12 days. Using a climate diagnostic approach and historical forecast data, it was found that the amplitude of the atmospheric waves accompanying the western U.S. fire weather would not have been so profound if not for the influence of these typhoons. Together, the recurving typhoons provided a significant source of wave activity flux directed toward North America – amplifying the ridge over the U.S. west coast while deepening the trough in central Canada. This anomalous circulation produced the severe frontal system that caused extreme winds in western Oregon, Washington and California – rapidly spreading fire.
Concurrent with changes in climate conditions, increases in atmospheric composition and transport can affect land surface processes by regulating physiological and phenological responses of plants, and consequently perturb water, carbon, and nitrogen (N) dynamics at multiple scales. Howerver, the relationships bwtween plants physiological and phenological and land surface processes in a changing climate are less well known due to the limitation of representing palnts properties in traditional hydrological models. In this study, we use the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) to investigate how projected changes in large scale atmospheric conditions can affect hydrologic and biogeochemical dynamics in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids (UCPR) watershed, a typical semi-arid watershed located in the north-western United States dominated by croplands. Six numerical experiments considering climate change, CO2 concentration, and N deposition consistent with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are performed at 1-km resolution over the period of 2015-2099. Our results show that, compared with historical results (1985-2014), the elevated CO2 directly increases plants N uptake rates that provide additional leaf N to enhance photosynthesis by the end of 21st century (2070-2099). The higher GPP leads to changes in stomatal resistance and increased leaf area index (LAI) that affect evaporatranspiration (ET) and its components. As a result of stomatal responses to a higher CO2 concentration, ET over corn fields declines by 24.6 mm yr-1 under RCP4.5, and by 64.0 mm yr-1 under RCP8.5, respectively by the end of the century from its historical mean of 428 mm yr-1. Meanwhile, ET over soybean fields increases by 27.7 mm yr-1 under RCP4.5 and 9.98 mm yr-1 under RCP8.5 from its historical mean of 507 mm yr-1 as a result of CO2 fertilization as soybeans are able to uptake more N to increase LAI significantly. Furtherfore, the changes in physiological and phenological in corn and soybean can strongly modulate water budget terms over the watershed in response to expected changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and atmospheric composition. Additionally, increases in CO2 concentration and N deposition are beneficial for improving water use efficiency of corn and soybean, therefore lead to less water consumption per unit gram of carbon produced from these crops. Our study elucidates the need to jointly consider effects of surface climate and atmospheric composition and transport in understanding and predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses, especially for an agricultural watershed.
AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM’s ability to simulate an extreme heatwave against the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), a physics-based climate model. NeuralGCM accurately replicates the targeted event, and generates stable and realistic mid-century projections. However, due to the absence of land feedbacks, NeuralGCM underestimates the projected warming amplitude compared to physics-based model references.
Abstract Marine renewable energy as a power source for ocean observation applications has the potential to allow longer deployment operations due to the consistent, higher, and denser energy available from this resource. This additionally could encourage deployments in remote locations where maintenance is costly or resource availability is low if dependent on solar power. More importantly, gaps in spatial data could be filled. This paper examines the feasibility of a modular horizontal pendulum wave energy converter to power National Data Buoy Center's Self‐Contained Ocean Observations Payload (SCOOP) off the coast of Washington State, U.S. The effect on power output was studied when the pendulum's radius arm, mass, and power take‐off damping were varied. Results using Matlab toolbox WEC‐Sim revealed positive correlation between radius arm length and mass to power output, where power maximised for optimal damping values. Seasonal trends in power were not significant, where a 20 kg pendulum mass was needed to meet the SCOOP base power requirement of 5 W throughout the year.
Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.