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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Observations of Southern Ocean Clouds and Implications for Climate

Southern Ocean (S. Ocean) clouds are important for climate prediction. Yet previous global climate models failed to accurately represent cloud phase distributions in this observation-sparse region. In this study, data from the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol, Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES) experiment is compared to constrained simulations from a global climate model (the Community Atmosphere Model, CAM). Nudged versions of CAM are found to reproduce many of the features of detailed in situ observations, such as cloud location, cloud phase, and boundary layer structure. The simulation in CAM6 has improved its representation of S. Ocean clouds with adjustments to the ice nucleation and cloud microphysics schemes that permit more supercooled liquid. Comparisons between modeled and observed hydrometeor size distributions suggest that the modeled hydrometeor size distributions represent the dual peaked shape and form of observed distributions, which is remarkable given the scale difference between model and observations. Comparison to satellite observations of cloud physics is difficult due to model assumptions that do not match retrieval assumptions. Some biases in the model's representation of S. Ocean clouds and aerosols remain, but the detailed cloud physical parameterization provides a basis for process level improvement and direct comparisons to observations. This is crucial because cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity are sensitive to the representation of S. Ocean clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Frigid Mixed-Phase Clouds for Pristine Coastal Antarctica

Supercooled water is common in the clouds near coastal Antarctica and occasionally occurs at temperatures at or below -30°C. Yet the ice physics in most regional and global numerical models will glaciate out these clouds. This presents a challenge for the simulation of highly supercooled clouds that were observed at McMurdo, Antarctica during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) project during 2015–2017. The polar optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) with the recently developed two-moment P3 microphysics scheme was used to simulate observed supercooled liquid water cases during March and November 2016. Nudging of the simulations to observed rawinsonde profiles and Antarctic automatic weather station observations provided increased realism and much greater cloud water amounts. Furthermore, sensitivity tests that adjust the ice physics for extremely low ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations decrease cloud ice and increases the cloud liquid water closer to observed amounts. In these tests, a liquid layer near cloud top is simulated, in agreement with observations. Accurate representation of INP concentrations appears to be critical for the simulation of coastal Antarctic clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Representations of Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in the Amazon as Simulated by Observationally Constrained Cloud‐System Resolving and Global Climate Models

Abstract The ability of an observationally‐constrained cloud‐system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting; WRF, 4‐km grid spacing) and a global climate model (Energy Exascale Earth System Model; E3SM, 1‐degree grid spacing) to represent the precipitation diurnal cycle over the Amazon basin during the 2014 wet season is assessed. The WRF model coupled with a 3‐D variational data assimilation scheme reproduces the spatial variability of the precipitation diurnal cycle over the basin and the lifecycle of westward propagating MCSs initiated by the coastal sea‐breeze front. In contrast, a single morning peak in rainfall is produced by E3SM for simulations despite the nudging of large‐scale winds toward global reanalysis, indicating precipitation in E3SM is largely controlled by local convection associated with diurnal heating. The role of propagating MCS on the environment are discussed by using a multivariate perturbation analysis. We also find that the advection of moisture perturbations from ocean to inland regions have a higher correlation with the occurrence of MCSs in the Amazon than the intensity of colder air intrusion associated with sea breezes along the coast. Moreover, the presence of large cold pools over the central Amazon basin are responsible for the maintenance of propagating deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Realism of Lagrangian Large Eddy Simulations Driven by Reanalysis Meteorology: Tracking a Pocket of Open Cells Under a Biomass Burning Aerosol Layer

An approach to drive Lagrangian large eddy simulation (LES) of boundary layer clouds with reanalysis data is presented and evaluated using satellite (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, SEVIRI) and aircraft (Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation Interactions and Forcing, CLARIFY) measurements. The simulations follow trajectories of the boundary layer flow. They track the formation and evolution of a pocket of open cells (POC) underneath a biomass burning aerosol layer in the free troposphere. The simulations reproduce the evolution of observed stratocumulus cloud morphology, cloud optical depth, and cloud drop effective radius, and capture the timing of the cloud state transition from closed to open cells seen in the satellite imagery on the three considered trajectories. They reproduce a biomass burning aerosol layer identified by the in-situ aircraft measurements above the inversion of the POC. Entrainment of aerosol from the biomass burning layer into the POC is limited to the extent of having no impact on cloud- or boundary layer properties, in agreement with the CLARIFY observations. The two-moment bin microphysics scheme used in the simulations reproduces the in-situ cloud microphysical properties reasonably well. A two-moment bulk microphysics scheme reproduces the satellite observations in the non-precipitating closed-cell state, but overestimates liquid water path and cloud optical depth in the precipitating open-cell state due to insufficient surface precipitation. A boundary layer cold and dry bias occurring in LES can be counteracted by reducing the grid aspect ratio and by tightening the large scale wind speed nudging towards the surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal Cycle of Idealized Polar Clouds: Large Eddy Simulations Driven by a GCM

The uncertainty in polar cloud feedbacks calls for process understanding of the cloud response to climate warming. As an initial step toward improved process understanding, we investigate the seasonal cycle of polar clouds in the current climate by adopting a novel modeling framework using large eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud dynamics. Resolved horizontal and vertical advection of heat and moisture from an idealized GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES are also forced with prescribed sea ice thickness, but surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and moisture evolve freely without nudging. A semigray radiative transfer scheme without water vapor and cloud feedbacks allows the GCM and LES to achieve closed energy budgets more easily than would be possible with more complex schemes. This enables the mean states in the two models to be consistently compared, without the added complications from interaction with more comprehensive radiation. Furthermore, we show that the LES closely follow the GCM seasonal cycle, and the seasonal cycle of low-level clouds in the LES resembles observations: maximum cloud liquid occurs in late summer and early autumn, and winter clouds are dominated by ice in the upper troposphere. Large-scale advection of moisture provides the main source of water vapor for the liquid-containing clouds in summer, while a temperature advection peak in winter makes the atmosphere relatively dry and reduces cloud condensate. The framework we develop and employ can be used broadly for studying cloud processes and the response of polar clouds to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating EAMv2 Simulated High Latitude Clouds Using ARM Measurements in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Here, this study evaluates high latitude stratiform mixed-phase clouds (SMPC) in the atmosphere model of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (EAMv2) by utilizing one-year-long ground-based remote sensing measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) program. A nudging approach is applied to model simulations for a constrained comparison with the ARM observations. Observed and modeled SMPCs are sampled and collocated to address the difference in data resolution, so that we can consistently evaluate their macrophysical properties at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in the Arctic and the McMurdo (AWR) site in the Antarctic. We found that EAMv2 overestimates SMPC frequency of occurrence at both sites. However, the model captures the observed larger cloud frequency of occurrence at the NSA site. For collocated SMPCs, the annual statistics of observed cloud macrophysics are generally reproduced at the NSA site, while at the AWR site, there are larger biases. Compared to the AWR site, the lower cloud top and cloud base and the warmer cloud top temperature observed at NSA are well simulated. On the other hand, simulated cloud phase is substantially biased. The model largely overestimates liquid water path, and the ice water path is underestimated at NSA, but at AWR, the liquid water path is frequently underestimated due to the dominance of snow in Antarctic SMPCs. As a result, the observed hemispheric difference in cloud phase partitioning is misrepresented in EAMv2. This study implies that additional model development is needed for high latitude mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Non‐Intrusive Machine Learning Framework for Debiasing Long‐Time Coarse Resolution Climate Simulations and Quantifying Rare Events Statistics

Abstract Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully‐resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on coarse‐models to quantify risk for extremes. However, coarse models suffer from inherent bias due to the ignored “sub‐grid” scales. We propose a framework to non‐intrusively debias coarse‐resolution climate predictions using neural‐network (NN) correction operators. Previous efforts have attempted to train such operators using loss functions that match statistics. However, this approach falls short with events that have longer return period than that of the training data, since the reference statistics have not converged. Here, the scope is to formulate a learning method that allows for correction of dynamics and quantification of extreme events with longer return period than the training data. The key obstacle is the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a dynamical systems approach where the correction operator is trained using reference data and a coarse model simulation nudged toward that reference. The method is demonstrated on debiasing an under‐resolved quasi‐geostrophic model and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). For the former, our method enables the quantification of events that have return period two orders longer than the training data. For the latter, when trained on 8 years of ERA5 data, our approach is able to correct the coarse E3SM output to closely reflect the 36‐year ERA5 statistics for all prognostic variables and significantly reduce their spatial biases.

Barthel Sorensen, B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Train, Inform, Borrow, or Combine? Approaches to Process–Guided Deep Learning for Groundwater–Influenced Stream Temperature Prediction

Although groundwater discharge is a critical stream temperature control process, it is not explicitly represented in many stream temperature models, an omission that may reduce predictive accuracy, hinder management of aquatic habitat, and decrease user confidence. We assessed the performance of a previously-described process-guided deep learning model of stream temperature in the Delaware River Basin (USA). We found lower accuracy (root mean square error [RMSE] of 1.71 versus 1.35°C) and stronger seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 1.06 vs. 0.68°C) for reaches primarily influenced by deep groundwater as compared to atmospheric conditions. We then tested four approaches for improving groundwater process representation: (a) a custom loss function leveraging the unique patterns of air and water temperature coupling characteristic of different temperature drivers, (b) inclusion of additional groundwater-relevant catchment attributes, (c) incorporation of additional process model outputs, and (d) a composite model. The custom loss function and the additional attributes significantly improved the predictive accuracy in groundwater-dominated reaches (RMSE of 1.37 and 1.26°C) and reduced the seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 0.44 and 0.48°C), but neither approach could identify holdout groundwater reaches. Variable importance analysis indicates the custom loss function nudges the model to use the existing inputs more efficiently, whereas with the added features the model relies on a broader suite of inputs. This analysis is a substantial step toward more accurately representing groundwater discharge processes in stream temperature models and will improve predictive accuracy and inform habitat management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complementing Dynamical Downscaling With Super‐Resolution Convolutional Neural Networks

Despite advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for climate downscaling, significant challenges remain for their practicality in climate research. Current AI-methods exhibit notable limitations, such as limited application in downscaling Global Climate Models (GCMs), and accurately representing extremes. To address these challenges, we implement an AI-based methodology using super-resolution convolutional neural networks (SRCNN), trained and evaluated on 40 years of daily precipitation data from a reanalysis and a high-resolution dynamically downscaled counterpart. The dynamical downscaled simulations, constrained using spectral nudging, enable the replication of historical events at a higher resolution. This allows the SRCNN to emulate dynamical downscaling effectively. Modifications, such as incorporating elevation data and data pre-processing enhances overall model performance, while using exponential and quantile loss functions improve the simulation of extremes. Our findings show SRCNN models efficiently and skillfully downscale precipitation from GCMs. Future work will expand this methodology to downscale additional variables for future climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Over the Northeast Pacific During the CSET Campaign in E3SM Version 2

It is still challenging to reproduce marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds well in large-scale models despite their importance to the Earth's radiation budget and hydrological cycle. This study evaluates representation of the MBL and clouds in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2. This study compares the E3SM simulation results with remote sensing and reanalysis data during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades (CSET) field campaign to better understand the stratocumulus-to-cumulus cloud transition (SCT) over the northeast Pacific. E3SM results are extracted along the CSET Lagrangian trajectories. The comparison shows that the E3SM simulation applying horizontal wind nudging performs well in reproducing thermodynamic variables of the MBL and evolution trends of cloud variables along the trajectories. However, substantial overestimations of aerosol and cloud drop number (N d ) are observed, which is explained as an issue with version 2 of the model. Cloud fraction (CF) does decrease from the Californian coast to Hawaii in the E3SM simulation, but most CF values indicate either an overcast or almost clear sky, which differs from satellite and reanalysis data. The effect of N d overestimation on CF evolution is assessed via prescribed-N d simulations. Those simulations with N d modifications show negligible CF changes. A comparison of estimated inversion strength (EIS) also shows that the simulated EIS values are similar to those of reanalysis data. Our study suggests that cloud macrophysics and boundary layer processes are more important in improving the simulation to capture the SCT than refining the model's thermodynamics or cloud microphysics.

Choi, Kyoung Ock [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Land‐Atmosphere Feedbacks in Midlatitude Wintertime Surface Temperature Variability

Accurately representing synoptic near-surface temperature variability is crucial to predict weather extremes, yet models remain biased. Existing studies primarily attribute wintertime midlatitude near-surface temperature variability to tropospheric large-scale advection, assuming minimal land influence. However, nudging the model's circulation toward observations yields little improvement in wintertime temperature variance over Northern Hemisphere land, suggesting that land-atmosphere interactions also warrant attention. We introduce a new scaling framework for temperature variance that incorporates local land-atmosphere feedbacks. Comparing our framework to the mixing length approach—which links temperature variance to the meridional temperature gradient and air parcel displacement (mixing length)—shows that land-atmosphere feedbacks are inherently embedded in the mixing length, a connection previously overlooked. Roles of land–atmosphere feedbacks are evaluated via model experiments with perturbed circulation, land, or both. We find that longwave radiative damping dominates temperature variance responses over meridional temperature gradient when both land and circulation are perturbed.

atmosheric science↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

First-principles investigation of the resistive switching energetics in monolayer MoS 2 : insights into metal diffusion and adsorption

A deeper understanding of resistive switching (RS) in 2D materials is essential for advancing neuromorphic computing. The Dissociation-Diffusion-Adsorption (DDA) model offers a useful framework for probing RS mechanisms in non-volatile memory (NVM) and in-memory computing. We have employed first-principles density functional theory (DFT) to explore dissociation, diffusion, and adsorption phenomena within the DDA model, focusing on the interactions between exemplary metal atoms (Au, Ag, Cu) and monolayer MoS 2 . Nudged elastic band (NEB) calculations evaluated diffusion barriers in pristine and sulfur-vacancy MoS 2 . Charged systems were modeled to assess the impact of applied bias on migration pathways. We also examined metal dissociation from bulk electrodes and adsorption at S vacancies. Ag/MoS 2 shows the lowest dissociation barrier (~0.034 eV), while Au and Cu exhibit similar values (~0.32 eV). These insights highlight Ag as a promising candidate for low-energy RS applications and provide guidance for optimizing switching efficiency in 2D memory devices.

Atomistic models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen-induced degradation dynamics in silicon heterojunction solar cells via machine learning

Abstract Among silicon-based solar cells, heterojunction cells hold the world efficiency record. However, their market acceptance is hindered by an initial 0.5% per year degradation of their open circuit voltage which doubles the overall cell degradation rate. Here, we study the performance degradation of crystalline-Si/amorphous-Si:H heterojunction stacks. First, we experimentally measure the interface defect density over a year, the primary driver of the degradation. Second, we develop SolDeg, a multiscale, hierarchical simulator to analyze this degradation by combining Machine Learning, Molecular Dynamics, Density Functional Theory, and Nudged Elastic Band methods with analytical modeling. We discover that the chemical potential for mobile hydrogen develops a gradient, forcing the hydrogen to drift from the interface, leaving behind recombination-active defects. We find quantitative correspondence between the calculated and experimentally determined defect generation dynamics. Finally, we propose a reversed Si-density gradient architecture for the amorphous-Si:H layer that promises to reduce the initial open circuit voltage degradation from 0.5% per year to 0.1% per year.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming

The primary sources of recent summer Arctic moistening trends in reanalysis are uncertain, hindering attribution of observed Arctic warming due to radiative effects from water vapor changes. Here, we use a combined online numerical water tracer and circulation nudging approach in the Community Earth System Model to track the sources of water vapor beyond its initial sources. Trends in boreal summer large-scale circulation have driven moistening of the Arctic over recent decades, having a large impact on the Arctic radiative budget, accounting for 94% of the strengthening water vapor radiative feedback. We identify two key regions supplying the Arctic water vapor feedback: Northeast North America and western/central Eurasia. In both regions, anticyclonic circulations over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Europe move moisture from the tropical oceans poleward to high latitude land through precipitation in winter and spring. During summer, evapotranspiration over land releases this water vapor, and it is transported by winds into the Arctic. We refer to this sequence of terrestrial moisture storage and release as the land capacitor effect. Thus, the impacts of circulation changes on poleward moisture transport and land-atmosphere interactions over high latitudes represent the underlying mechanisms of the recent moistening and warming in the Arctic.

Arctic amplification↗
DOE OSTI2021

First principles modeling of polymer encapsulant degradation in Si photovoltaic modules

An outstanding issue in the longevity of photovoltaic (PV) modules is the accelerated degradation caused by the presence of moisture. Moisture leads to interfacial instability, de-adhesion, encapsulant decomposition, and contact corrosion. However, experimental characterization of moisture in PV modules is not trivial and its impacts can take years or decades to establish in the field, presenting a major obstacle to designing high-reliability modules. First principles calculations provide an alternative way to study the ingress of water and its detrimental effect on the structure and decomposition of the polymer encapsulant and interfaces between the encapsulant and the semiconductor, the metal contacts, or the dielectric layer. Here, we use density functional theory (DFT) computations to model single chain, crystalline and cross-linked structures, infrared (IR) signatures, and degradation mechanisms of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA), the most common polymer encapsulant used in Si PV modules. IR-active modes computed for low energy EVA structures and possible decomposition products match well with reported experiments. The EVA decomposition energy barriers computed using the Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) method show a preference for acetic acid formation as compared to acetaldehyde, are lowered in the presence of a water solvent or hydroxyl ion catalyst, and match well with reported experimental activation energies. This systematic study leads to a clear picture of the hydrolysis-driven decomposition of EVA in terms of energetically favorable mechanisms, possible intermediate structures, and IR signatures of reactants and products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-energy pathways lead to self-healing defects in CsPbBr 3

Self-regulation of free charge carriers in perovskites via Schottky defect formation has been posited as the origin of the well-known defect-tolerance of metal halide perovskite materials. Understanding the mechanisms of self-regulation promises to lead to the fabrication of better performing solar cell materials with higher efficiencies. We investigate many such mechanisms here for CsPbBr 3 , a popular representative of a more commercially viable all-inorganic metal halide perovskite. We investigate different atomic-level mechanisms and pathways of the diffusion and recombination of neutral and charged interstitials and vacancies (Schottky pairs) in CsPbBr 3 . We use nudged elastic band calculations and ab initio-derived pseudopotentials within quantum ESPRESSO to determine energies of formation and migration and hence the activation energies for these defects. While halide vacancies are known to exhibit low formation energies, the migration of interstitials is less studied. Our calculations uncover interstitial defect pathways capable of producing an activation energy at, or below, the single experimental value of 0.53 eV observed for the slow, temperature-dependent recovery of light-induced conductivity in bulk CsPbBr 3 . Our work reveals the existence of a low-energy diffusion pathway involving a concerted “domino effect” of interstitials, with the net result that interstitials can diffuse more readily over longer distances than expected. This observation suggests that defect self-healing can be promoted if the “domino effect” strategy can be engaged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗