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GES DISC Greenhouse Gas Data Sets and Associated Services

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple missions. Hosted data include those from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission (which has observed CO2, CH4, ozone, and water vapor since 2002); legacy water vapor and ozone retrievals from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS); and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) going back to the early 1980s. GES DISC also archives and supports data from seven projects of the Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program that have ozone and water vapor records. Greenhouse gases data from the A-Train satellite constellation is also available: (1) Aura-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone, nitrous oxide, and water vapor since 2004; (2) Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) CO2 observations since 2009 from the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) task; and (3) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) CO2 data since 2014. The most recent related data set that the GES DISC archives is methane flux for North America, as part of NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project. This dataset contains estimates of methane emission in North America based on an inversion of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model constrained by GOSAT observations (Turner et al., 2015). Along with data stewardship, an important focus area of the GES DISC is to enhance the usability of its data and broaden its user base. Users have unrestricted access to a new user-friendly search interface, which includes many services such as variable subsetting, format conversion, quality screening, and quick browse. The majority of the GES DISC data sets are also accessible through Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and Web Coverage Service (WCS). The latter two services provide more options for specialized subsetting, format conversion, and image viewing. Additional data exploration, data preview, and preliminary analysis capabilities are available via NASA Giovanni, which obviates the need forusers to download the data (Acker and Leptoukh, 2007). Giovanni provides a bridge between the data and science and has been very successful in extending GES DISC data to educational users and to users with limited resources.

data ordering↗

Oco-2 Calibration Refinement Across Versions And Plans For Oco-3

The third major reprocessing campaign for the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 mission is underway. With each release, several aspects of instrument calibration were improved. An onboard lamp tracks relative gain degradation, but ages too quickly to track absolute scaling. The most significant changes between builds were evolving assumptions about the stability of the solar calibrator. For the newest build, the trend in lunar measurements over a 4.5-year time series was applied. Another significant change was to expand a list of detector outliers via review of dark, lamp, and science measurements. More subtle adjustments to stray light and spectral dispersion were also performed. The techniques developed for OCO-2 are being applied to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3, which completed in-orbit checkout in August 2019. OCO-3 does not have a solar calibrator, and will need to constrain lamp aging via secondary lamps and comparison to other satellites.

Rosenberg, Rob↗

An Examination of Coarse Sun Sensor Contingencies in Attitude Determination and the Sun Vector Calculation

Satellite pointing is vital to the success of a mission. One element of that entails describing the position of the sun relative to the frame of the satellite. Coarse Sun Sensors (CSS) are typically used to provide the information to calculate the sun's position in Safe Modes or contingency operations. In the OCO-2 configuration there are 13 CSS total, which provide redundant 4 celestial coverage. Failures of the individual CSS elements can introduce holes in the celestial coverage resulting in potential loss of sun knowledge. These failures must be analyzed to determine if the contingency plan is sufficient to assure mission success. First the static case was looked at and determined that at a maximum, 3 CSS failures can be sustained on the body and 1 on the array without causing coverage holes. Also array sensors are more important to mission success. The Sun Vector calculation has been transcribed to MATLAB code and failure scenarios are being examined to determine the maximum error given a set of failure scenarios. This activity indicated that if there is a loss of the sun, the sun-searching algorithm could be modified to use XZ rotation as that is guaranteed to find it whereas the design using the YZ rotation misses the sun if it is at the + or - Y orientation.

celestial bodies↗

Capturing Complete Spatial Context in Satellite Observations of Greenhouse Gases

Scientific consensus from a 2015 pre-Decadal Survey workshop highlighted the essential need for a wide-swath (mapping) low earth orbit (LEO) instrument delivering carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and carbon monoxide (CO) measurements with global coverage. OCO-2 pioneered space-based CO2 remote sensing, but lacks the CH4, CO and mapping capabilities required for an improved understanding of the global carbon cycle. The Carbon Balance Observatory (CARBO) advances key technologies to enable high-performance, cost-effective solutions for a space-based carbon-climate observing system. CARBO is a compact, modular, 15-30° field of view spectrometer that delivers high-precision CO2, CH4, CO and solar induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) data with weekly global coverage from LEO. CARBO employs innovative immersion grating technologies to achieve diffraction-limited performance with OCO-like spatial (2 x 2 sq.km) and spectral (λ/Δλ≈ 20,000) resolution in a package that is >50% smaller, lighter and more cost-effective. CARBO delivers a 25- to 50-fold increase in spatial coverage compared to OCO-2 with no loss of detection sensitivity. Individual CARBO modules weigh < 20 kg, opening diverse new space-based platform opportunities.

Miller, Charles E.↗

Reconciliation of asynchronous satellite-based $\mathrm{NO_2}$ and $\mathrm{XCO_2}$ enhancements with mesoscale modeling over two urban landscapes

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ), the main driver of global warming and climate change, is often co-emitted with nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and precursors to ground-level ozone from anthropogenic sources like power plants or vehicles. In urban and suburban areas, satellite-based NO 2 can be used as a proxy to track the emissions of CO 2ff . Because of NO 2 ’s shorter lifetime, urban NO 2 plumes are more distinguishable from backgrounds and more sensitive to variations in emissions. However, the combination of these two gases is limited by the asynchrony among NO 2 and CO 2 monitoring satellites. We used CO 2ff simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to reconcile the tropospheric NO 2 vertical column density (VCD) from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of carbon dioxide enhancements (ΔXCO 2 ) from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 3 (OCO-3) Snapshot Area Maps (SAMs) over a multicity area, Washington D.C.-Baltimore (DC-Balt), and a basin city, Mexico City. NO 2 /CO 2ff ratios over DC-Balt are smaller than Mexico City, indicative of stricter emission restrictions, a more combustion-efficient vehicle fleet, and higher combustion efficiency due to lower altitude in DC-Balt. For single-track cases, the spatial correlations between NO 2 and ΔXCO 2 over Mexico City are stronger than DC-Balt because the NO 2 and CO 2 are mostly trapped in the valley of Mexico City, while DC-Balt is severely affected by distant sources (i.e., US East Coast cities). Using multi-track averaging, spatial correlation coefficients increase with the number of days used for averaging. The correlations reached a maximum when averaging >12 continuous images for DC-Balt and > 10 continuous images for Mexico City. This finding indicates that multi-track averaging using modeled CO 2ff as a proxy is helpful to filter the noise in single-track images, to cancel the interference from distant sources, and to magnify correlations between NO 2 and CO 2ff . Mexico City showed stronger spatial correlations but weaker temporal correlations than DC-Balt due to biomass burning hot spots and large transport errors caused by the trapping effects of the surrounding mountains. Tracking the 20-day moving average of CO 2ff emissions using TROPOMI NO 2 seems technically feasible, considering the relationship between correlation coefficients and the number of available satellite images.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chemical OSSEs in Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)

This presentation will summarize ongoing 'chemical observing system simulation experiment (OSSE)' work in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Weather OSSEs are being studied in detail, with a 'nature run' based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model that can be sampled by a synthesized suite of satellites that reproduces present-day observations. Chemical OSSEs are based largely on the carbon-cycle project and aim to study (1) how well we can reproduce the observed carbon distribution with the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) sensors and (2) with what accuracy can we deduce surface sources and sinks of carbon species in an assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗

Tracer Transport Differences: Challenges and Implications for Flux Inversions

This poster demonstrates that different chemistry transport models (CTMs), each extensively validated, can have significant differences in the predicted transport of long-lived trace gases. For carbon dioxide (CO2), this difference is 0.5 ppm or greater in the total column. The value exceeds the nominal retrieval error requirements of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), which were chosen based on the understanding of the accuracy necessary to infer surface fluxes of CO2 on regional and seasonal scales. This suggests that the transport errors of CTMs play a considerable role in the surface flux inversion of satellite-based measurements of long-lived trace gases and the interpretation of the inferred fluxes requires a careful understanding of this role.

Weir, B.↗

Generating Global CH4 NASA GEOS Product by Assimilating TROPOMI

Radiative properties of methane (CH4) significantly contribute to climate change and the recent acceleration of global CH4 growth requires thorough investigation into its causes. Examination of temporal and spatial CH4 variability is crucial for better understanding the shifts that are currently taking place. Integrating different CH4 observations to create a reliable, easily to use global atmospheric CH4 product could contribute to assessment of emissions processes, but remains challenging due to the lack of long satellite data records. Here we present the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) based global CH4 product constrained by atmospheric transport from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and assimilated CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). This product uses the Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) component of the GEOS capability, which has been expanded and generalized to assimilate any satellite, ground-based, or in situ observation of atmospheric composition that can be expressed as a vertical sounding or point sample. The product is similar to the one generated by assimilating carbon dioxide (CO2) data into GEOS from Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2): OCO-2 GEOS Level 3 daily and monthly, 0.5x0.625 assimilated CO2 V10r. The preliminary product is investigated using a variety of quality check approaches with the help of in situ observations to examine bias correction, error inflation, and performance of the assimilation system. Potential applications of this approach include support for interpretation of high-resolution point source detection approaches, climate and greenhouse gas reanalyses, and boundary conditions for regional modeling approaches.

Nikolay Balashov↗

Anomalous Net Biome Exchange Over Amazonian Rainforests Induced by the 2015/16 El Niño: Temperature-dominated Total Flux but Soil Dryness-Shaped Spatial Pattern

The magnitude and spatial pattern of anomalous net biome exchange (NBE) induced by the 2015/16 El Niño over Amazonian rainforests remain uncertain. We here investigated them using multi-model posterior NBE products in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) version 10 modeling intercomparison project. Results suggest that relative to the annual NBE average in 2017/18, larger anomalous carbon release occurred over the eastern and northern Amazonian rainforests in 2015/16, with a total flux of approximately 0.4 PgC yr−1 after assimilating satellite-observed column CO2 concentrations (XCO2) over land. We further find that this anomalous spatial pattern was predominantly determined by soil dryness, while the total positive NBE anomaly was dominated by higher temperature with its contribution of approximately 68~70%. We believe that atmospheric inversions assimilating more satellite-observed XCO2 in future can provide us more comprehensive understanding how Amazonian rainforests cope with the abiotic stresses induced by El Niño events.

Jun Wang↗

Establishing Calibration Standards for Remote Sensing Retrievals of Greenhouse Gases

While in situ greenhouse gas measurements have a concrete calibration standard, establishing a similar standard for remote sensing retrievals remains challenging. As the constellation of greenhouse gas observing satellites grows, such a standard is essential to ensure data are of the quality necessary to support scientific and policy applications. A primary goal of NASA's Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) - America aircraft campaign is to evaluate column CO2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) through coordinated underflights. The campaign also includes airborne lidar instruments that measure the amount of CO2 and CH4 below the aircraft. This presentation introduces a system that establishes calibration standards for OCO-2 and lidar retrievals based on in situ data from the ACT-America campaign. The system assimilates the in situ data into NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) to produce high-resolution, two-dimensional transects of CO2 along the flight path which we refer to as curtains. Excluding the ability to sample the entire atmosphere at once, any such analysis must make assumptions about the connection of measurements at different places and times to a given retrieval. We chose to use the GEOS general circulation model forced by meteorology from its data assimilation system because their scientific merits are extensively documented. Furthermore, in areas rich in data, the assimilated curtains approach a field constrained by data alone. Where data are lacking, e.g., the stratosphere, age of air and other transport diagnostics can be used to quantify the uncertainty introduced by the model. Given these uncertainties, we can determine the uncertainties of the curtains and thus our ability to evaluate remote sensing instruments. Here, we demonstrate this for several flights over North America and discuss possible applications to upcoming missions, e.g., GeoCarb.

Weir, B.↗

Data Fusion for Earth Science Remote Sensing

Beginning in 2004, NASA has supported the development of an international network of ground-based remote sensing installations for the measurement of greenhouse gas columns. This collaboration has been successful and is currently used in both carbon cycle investigations and in the efforts to validate the GOSAT space-based column observations of CO2 and CH4. With the support of a grant, this research group has established a network of ground-based column observations that provide an essential link between the satellite observations of CO2, CO, and CH4 and the extensive global in situ surface network. The Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) was established in 2004. At the time of this report seven sites, employing modern instrumentation, were operational or were expected to be shortly. TCCON is expected to expand. In addition to providing the most direct means of tying the in situ and remote sensing data sets together, TCCON provides a means of testing the retrieval algorithms of SCIAMACHY and GOSAT over the broadest variation in atmospheric state. TCCON provides a critically maintained and long timescale record for identification of temporal drift and spatial bias in the calibration of the space-based sensors. Finally, the global observations from TCCON are improving our understanding of how to use column observations to provide robust estimates of surface exchange of C02 and CH4 in advance of the launch of OCO and GOSAT. TCCON data are being used to better understand the impact of both regional fluxes and long-range transport on gradients in the C02 column. Such knowledge is essential for identifying the tools required to best use the space-based observations. The technical approach and methodology of retrieving greenhouse gas columns from near-IR solar spectra, data quality and process control are described. Additionally, the impact of and relevance to NASA of TCCON and satellite validation and carbon science are addressed.

data fusion↗

Spatial Variability in Column CO2 Inferred from High Resolution GEOS-5 Global Model Simulations: Implications for Remote Sensing and Inversions

Column CO2 observations from current and future remote sensing missions represent a major advancement in our understanding of the carbon cycle and are expected to help constrain source and sink distributions. However, data assimilation and inversion methods are challenged by the difference in scale of models and observations. OCO-2 footprints represent an area of several square kilometers while NASA s future ASCENDS lidar mission is likely to have an even smaller footprint. In contrast, the resolution of models used in global inversions are typically hundreds of kilometers wide and often cover areas that include combinations of land, ocean and coastal areas and areas of significant topographic, land cover, and population density variations. To improve understanding of scales of atmospheric CO2 variability and representativeness of satellite observations, we will present results from a global, 10-km simulation of meteorology and atmospheric CO2 distributions performed using NASA s GEOS-5 general circulation model. This resolution, typical of mesoscale atmospheric models, represents an order of magnitude increase in resolution over typical global simulations of atmospheric composition allowing new insight into small scale CO2 variations across a wide range of surface flux and meteorological conditions. The simulation includes high resolution flux datasets provided by NASA s Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project at half degree resolution that have been down-scaled to 10-km using remote sensing datasets. Probability distribution functions are calculated over larger areas more typical of global models (100-400 km) to characterize subgrid-scale variability in these models. Particular emphasis is placed on coastal regions and regions containing megacities and fires to evaluate the ability of coarse resolution models to represent these small scale features. Additionally, model output are sampled using averaging kernels characteristic of OCO-2 and ASCENDS measurement concepts to create realistic pseudo-datasets. Pseudo-data are averaged over coarse model grid cell areas to better understand the ability of measurements to characterize CO2 distributions and spatial gradients on both short (daily to weekly) and long (monthly to seasonal) time scales

Ott, L.↗

Progress in Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Using a Broadband LIDAR

Innovative active system using advanced source technology development will enable precise daytime or nighttime measurements of column CO2. Directly responds to NRC DS ASCENDS mission. Number of lasers is reduced compared to competing technologies which reduces the complexity of sensor and thus the cost and risk of failure. Knowledge gained from previously developed passive sensor decreases the risk and cost of the present lidar system development. The instrument can play a significant role as an intercomparison instrument for OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) if it is rebuilt and launched as well as other laser based instruments under development for participation in ASCENDS. It can play a role as an airborne instrument in its own right in addressing the problems of scale arising from differences between point observations by the existing ground based CO2 network and wider area measurements obtained by satellites. Developed 2.0 micron broadband system as well and will compare performance of both systems to choose optimal approach for ASCENDS. Have begun development of approach that uses array detectors instead of APD. This approach will have lower noise than APD and may simplify design of the detector optical train.

Heaps, William S.↗

Tracking 2020 Decreases in Carbon Dioxide Due to the COVID19 Pandemic in NASA’s GEOS Modeling system: Implications for Space-Based Carbon Monitoring

The COVID19 pandemic led to abrupt, worldwide changes in human activity and related emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases that are unprecedented in modern times. NASA satellites have demonstrated their ability to observe some of these impacts, particularly in relation to short-lived gases like nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is emitted primarily from transportation. Bottom-up analyses of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions suggest that the growth of atmospheric CO2 has also slowed, but differences are much more subtle than for NO2 because of the lifetime of atmospheric CO2 and sectoral differences in emission reductions. Estimates of CO2 from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) provide a unique view of COVID19 impacts, but observed changes in the column-average CO2 can be difficult to interpret because of gaps in spatial coverage. Assimilating these data into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), an integrated Earth system model with an advanced Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), helped to reveal changes in CO2 that are consistent with separate, bottom-up analyses of emissions reductions. Both indicate that from February-April of 2020, the growth in CO2 over Europe, North America, and Asia was roughly 0.3 ppm less than during the previous four years. Anomalies derived from gap-filled GEOS OCO-2 CoDAS products contribute to a joint effort by the world’s space agencies to track COVID19 impacts on the Earth. However, attribution of these changes is complicated by interannual variability in atmospheric circulation and the influence of climate on ocean and land carbon sinks. We discuss these results from the perspective of space-based carbon monitoring, which has received considerable support over the past decade from NASA. Our results demonstrate the accomplishments of current sensors and data assimilation systems, but also highlight challenges in providing high quality, low latency information to the public. In particular, understanding and attributing CO2 changes during 2020 requires year-specific information about land and ocean fluxes, which is often delayed for months or even years. We discuss current limitations and potential solutions to address these lags, which would support more reliable and timely space-based carbon monitoring.

COVID-19↗

From CMS to the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center – Improved Tracking of Recent Changes in Co 2 and Ch 4 From NASA’s Quasi-Operational Modeling Systems

Reliable, low latency delivery of high quality global flux and concentration information is a growing but still unmet need to advance expanding measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification efforts that underpin federal climate mitigation strategies. Here we present on progress toward developing space-based greenhouse gas (GHG) monitoring systems that can provide comprehensive information trailing real time by a matter of weeks to a few months. Through support from its Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) program, NASA has developed the capability to assimilate XCO 2 retrievals from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO 2 ) into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS) to create gap-filled, three-dimensional (3D) estimates of CO 2 mixing ratio. When observations are unavailable, concentration fields are further informed by observationally-informed bottom-up flux packages that incorporate remotely sensed fire, nighttime lights, and vegetation observations combined with estimates of atmospheric growth rate based on surface in situ data. The 3D nature of these datasets supports evaluation with independent aircraft data to improve confidence in satellite data, development of new regional modeling approaches, and quantification of the climate impacts of GHGs. The system has recently been expanded to assimilate XCH 4 from ESA’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument and is supported by companion efforts to improve delivery of estimates of bottom-up land and ocean fluxes. The quasi-operational GEOS-GHG system is contributing to the recently announced U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center (GHG Center) by delivering information on recent changes in CO 2 and CH 4 emissions and concentrations to support stakeholder and research communities. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the current system configured to support the GHG Center. We highlight examples of how this data contributes to broader NASA initiatives including the Earth Information Center, an innovative virtual and physical exhibit designed to show how NASA data helps the nation combat climate change. We conclude by discussing how innovations in CMS research can address remaining data gaps and modeling challenges to advance operational GHG monitoring in the future.

Lesley Ott↗

Space-Based Near-Infrared CO2 Measurements: Testing the Orbiting Carbon Observatory Retrieval Algorithm and Validation Concept Using SCIAMACHY Observations over Park Falls, Wisconsin

Space-based measurements of reflected sunlight in the near-infrared (NIR) region promise to yield accurate and precise observations of the global distribution of atmospheric CO2. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) is a future NASA mission, which will use this technique to measure the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) with the precision and accuracy needed to quantify CO2 sources and sinks on regional scales (approx.1000 x 1000 sq km and to characterize their variability on seasonal timescales. Here, we have used the OCO retrieval algorithm to retrieve XCO2 and surface pressure from space-based Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY) measurements and from coincident ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) measurements of the O2 A band at 0.76 mm and the 1.58 mm CO2 band for Park Falls,Wisconsin. Even after accounting for a systematic error in our representation of the O2 absorption cross sections, we still obtained a positive bias between SCIAMACHY and FTS XCO2 retrievals of approx.3.5%. Additionally, the retrieved surface pressures from SCIAMACHY systematically underestimate measurements of a calibrated pressure sensor at the FTS site. These findings lead us to speculate about inadequacies in the forward model of our retrieval algorithm. By assuming a 1% intensity offset in the O2 A band region for the SCIAMACHY XCO2 retrieval, we significantly improved the spectral fit and achieved better consistency between SCIAMACHY and FTS XCO2 retrievals. We compared the seasonal cycle of XCO2 at Park Falls from SCIAMACHY and FTS retrievals with calculations of the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry/Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (MATCH/CASA) and found a good qualitative agreement but with MATCH/CASA underestimating the measured seasonal amplitude. Furthermore, since SCIAMACHY observations are similar in viewing geometry and spectral range to those of OCO, this study represents an important test of the OCO retrieval algorithm and validation concept using NIR spectra measured from space. Finally, we argue that significant improvements in precision and accuracy could be obtained from a dedicated CO2 instrument such as OCO, which has much higher spectral and spatial resolutions than SCIAMACHY. These measurements would then provide critical data for improving our understanding of the carbon cycle and carbon sources and sinks.

carbon dioxide↗

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗

Detecting Volcanic Co2 Emissions Hidden in Tropical Volcanic Forests Using Fixed-Wing sUAS

CO2 emissions are among the earliest indicators of subsurface state change and reactivation of volcanic systems and these deep signals reflect in faint diffuse emissions variations on volcanic flanks. Monitoring vast areas of rainforests covering tropical volcanoes is challenging, and space-borne sensors like OCO-2 are not sensitive enough. Fortunately, trees exposed to mild enhancements of CO2 may experience fertilization and build excess CO2 into excess biomass (Cawse-Nicholson, et al. 2018, Biogeosciences). They also process excess CO2 through photosynthesis, measurable by fluorescence (Bogue et al., 2019, Biogeosciences). Furthermore, spaceborne remote sensing instruments have demonstrated increasing NDVI months to years before eruptions, unexplained by other factors (e.g., Houlie et al. 2006, EPSL; Seiler et al. 2017, PLoS One). By providing a means to map large areas of above-canopy CO2 variations over tropical rainforest on the flanks of actively degassing volcanoes, we enable to interpret the signals plants provide in response to excess CO2 with airborne and spaceborne hyperspectral remote sensing methods, including a possible future Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) NASA satellite mission.As a critical step to mature and test this concept, we deployed small unmanned aerial systems (sUAS) using a fixed-wing sUAS designed for autonomous operations and long endurance in extreme environments, without causing significant disturbance of the sampled air. We integrated an in-situ sensor to record the CO2 enhancement field above the forest canopy. Test flight results on the flanks of Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica above forest canopies covering known moderate gas seeps demonstrate the sUAS-borne detection and mapping capabilities of above-canopy elevated CO2 gradients. The strong detection capabilities and high detector signal stability resulted from key system design elements including RF shielding, mechanical stabilization, and calibration procedures. This highly robust system is readily applied for diffuse volcanic CO2 emission studies on active volcanoes covered by dense vegetation.

Volcanic↗