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An analytically tractable marked power spectrum

The increasing precision of cosmology data in the modern era is calling for methods to allow the extraction of non-Gaussian information using tools beyond two-point statistics. The marked power spectrum has the potential to extract beyond two-point information in a computationally efficient way while using much of the infrastructure already available for the power spectrum. In this work we explore the marked power spectrum from an analytical perspective. In particular, we explore a low-order polynomial for the mark that allows us to better control the theoretical uncertainties and we show that with minimal new degrees of freedom the analytical results match measurements from N-body simulations for both the matter field and biased tracers in redshift space. Finally, we show that even within the limited forms of mark that we consider, there are degeneracies that can be broken by inclusion of the marked auto-spectrum or the cross-spectrum with the unmarked field. I n conclusion, we discuss future theoretical developments that would enable us to apply this approach to survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Two-epoch Orbit Estimation for Wide Binaries Resolved in Hipparcos and Gaia

The Hipparcos catalog and its Double and Multiple System Annex (DMSA) lists 4099 components with individual proper motions and coordinates on the epoch 1991.25. Many of these long-period binary stars are also present in Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2). Using the available relative positions and proper motions separated by 24.25 yr, the equations of relative orbital motion can be solved for the two epoch eccentric anomalies, orbital period, and eccentricity. This method employs elimination of the linear Thiele–Innes unknowns and nonlinear optimization of the remaining condition equations. The quality of these solutions is compromised by the insufficient condition and modest precision of the Hipparcos astrometric data, as revealed by Monte Carlo simulations with artificially perturbed data points. The presence of multiple systems and optical pairs can also perturb the results. Limited experiments with artificial data indicate that useful estimates can be obtained with a 25 yr epoch difference for wide binaries with orbital periods up to ~500 yr. The prospects of this method dramatically improve with the proposed next-generation space astrometry missions such as Gaia-NIR and Theia, especially when additional conditions are included from astrometric or spectroscopic measurements. An ancillary catalog of cross-identification and astrometric information for 1295 double-star pairs cross-matched in Gaia DR2 and Hipparcos is also published.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Heterogeneous Point Set Transformers for Segmentation of Multiple View Particle Detectors

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that detects neutrino particles from the NuMI beam at Fermilab. Before data from this experiment can be used in analyses, raw hits in the detector must be matched to their source particles, and the type of each particle must be identified. This task has commonly been done using a mix of traditional clustering approaches and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Due to the construction of the detector, the data is presented as two sparse 2D images: an XZ and a YZ view of the detector, rather than a 3D representation. We propose a point set neural network that operates on the sparse matrices with an operation that mixes information from both views. Our model uses less than 10% of the memory required using previous methods while achieving a 96.8% AUC score, a higher score than obtained when both views are processed independently (85.4%).

Robles, Edgar E. [UC, Irvine (main)]↗

Deterministic incident-wave elevation prediction in intermediate water depth

Potential performance gains from optimal (non-causal) impedance-matching control of wave energy devices in irregular ocean waves are dependent on deterministic wave elevation prediction techniques that work well in practical applications. Although a number of devices are designed for operation in intermediate water depths, little work has been reported on deterministic wave prediction in such depths. Here, we investigated a deterministic wave-prediction technique based on an approximate propagation model that leads to an analytical formulation, which may be convenient to implement in practice. To improve accuracy, an approach to combine predictions based on multiple up-wave measurement points is evaluated. The overall method is tested using experimental time-series measurements recorded in the U.S. Navy MASK basin in Carderock, MD, USA. For comparison, an alternative prediction approach based on Fourier coefficients is also tested with the same data. Comparison of prediction approaches with direct measurements suggest room for improvement. Possible sources of error including tank reflections are estimated, and potential mitigation approaches are discussed.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Performance measurement of emerging 3- and 4-terminal tandem solar cells

Tandem solar cells are not limited to the conventional two-terminal (2-T) configuration. Multi-terminal designs like three-terminal (3-T) and four-terminal (4-T) devices have gained increasing attention in the PV community due to their relaxed current-matching requirement between subcells and their potential for enhanced energy yield. However, reliable and standardized methods for evaluating the performance of multi-terminal tandems remain underdeveloped. This work addresses this gap by providing comprehensive measurement guidelines tailored to these advanced configurations. We examine key coupling mechanisms between subcells, including the shared electrical load in 3-T devices and optical luminescent coupling in both 3-T and 4-T devices, to enable accurate and consistent performance evaluation. Furthermore, we propose two stabilized measurement methods for emerging 3-T tandem cells incorporating perovskite subcells: (1) a two-dimensional maximum-power-point tracking (MPPT) approach that continuously tracks both subcells' maximum power points (P MAX ) until convergence to stabilized outputs, and (2) a hybrid approach that combines MPPT for one subcell with stabilized current recording under fixed voltage biases near the P MAX of the other, allowing robust extraction of the overall stabilized P MAX (termed “MPPT + asymptotic P MA X scan” method). These methods directly address the dynamic current responses inherent to perovskite-containing tandems, providing a foundation for meaningful and reproducible performance comparisons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

LAMOST Time-Domain survey: first results of four K2 plates

From Oct. 2019 to Apr. 2020, LAMOST performed a time-domain (TD) spectroscopic survey of four K2 plates with both low- and medium-resolution observations. The low-resolution spectroscopic survey acquired 282 exposures ( ≈ 46.6 h) over 25 nights, yielding a total of about 767 000 spectra, and the medium-resolution survey took 177 exposures ( ≈ 49.1 h) over 27 nights, collecting about 478 000 spectra. More than 70%/50% of low-resolution/medium-resolution spectra have signal-to-noise ratio higher than 10. We determine stellar parameters (e.g., T eff , log g, [Fe/H]) and radial velocity (RV) with different methods, including LASP, DD-Payne and SLAM. In general, these parameter estimations from different methods show good agreement, and the stellar parameter values are consistent with those of APOGEE. We use the Gaia DR2 RV values to calculate a median RV zero point (RVZP) for each spectrograph exposure by exposure, and the RVZP-corrected RVs agree well with the APOGEE data. The stellar evolutionary and spectroscopic masses are estimated based on the stellar parameters, multi-band magnitudes, distances and extinction values. Finally, we construct a binary catalog including about 2700 candidates by analyzing their light curves, fitting the RV data, calculating the binarity parameters from medium-resolution spectra and cross-matching the spatially resolved binary catalog from Gaia EDR3. In conclusion, the LAMOST TD survey is expected to represent a breakthrough in various scientific topics, such as binary systems, stellar activity, stellar pulsation, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Photometric calibration in u -band using blue halo stars

ABSTRACT We develop a method to calibrate u-band photometry based on the observed colour of blue Galactic halo stars. The Galactic halo stars belong to an old stellar population of the Milky Way and have relatively low metallicity. The ‘blue tip’ of the halo population – the main sequence turn-off (MSTO) stars – is known to have a relatively uniform intrinsic edge u-g colour with only slow spatial variation. In SDSS data, the observed variation is correlated with Galactic Latitude, which we attribute to contamination by higher metallicity disc stars and fit with an empirical curve. This curve can then be used to calibrate u-band imaging if g-band imaging of matching depth is available. Our approach can be applied to single-field observations at |b| > 30°, and removes the need for standard star observations or overlap with calibrated u-band imaging. We include in our method the calibration of g-band data with ATLAS-Refcat2. We test our approach on stars in KiDS DR 4, ATLAS DR 4, and DECam imaging from the NOIRLab Source Catalog (NSC DR2), and compare our calibration with SDSS. For this process, we use synthetic magnitudes to derive the colour equations between these data sets, in order to improve zero-point accuracy. We find an improvement for all data sets, reaching a zero-point precision of 0.016 mag for KiDS (compared to the original 0.033 mag), 0.020 mag for ATLAS (originally 0.027 mag), and 0.016 mag for DECam (originally 0.041 mag). Thus, this method alone reaches the goal of 0.02 mag photometric precision in u-band for the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Searches Beyond the Standard Model in the ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift Detector

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events—making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving 31.9 ± 0.2% (26.6 ± 0.2%) ν efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, 17.5 ± 0.3% (18.3 ± 0.3%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗

Nuclear-level effective theory of 𝜇→𝑒 conversion: Formalism and applications

Over the next decade new 𝜇→𝑒 conversion searches at Fermilab (Mu2e) and J-PARC (COMET, DeeMe) are expected to advance limits on charged lepton flavor violation (CLFV) by more than four orders of magnitude. Here, by considering the consequence of 𝑃 and 𝐶⁢𝑃 on elastic 𝜇→𝑒 conversion and the structure of possible charge and current densities, we show that rates are governed by six nuclear responses and a single scale, 𝑞/𝑚 𝑁 , where 𝑞 ≈ 𝑚 𝜇 is the momentum transferred from the leptons to the nucleus. To relate this result to microscopic formulations of CLFV, we construct in nonrelativistic effective theory (NRET) the CLFV nucleon-level interaction, pointing out the relevance of the dimensionless scales 𝑦=($^{𝑞⁢𝑏}_2$) 2 ⁢ > |$\overrightarrow{𝑣}_N$⁢|>|$\overrightarrow{𝑣}_μ$⁢|>|$\overrightarrow{𝑣}_T$| , where 𝑏 is the nuclear size, $\overrightarrow{𝑣}_N$ and $\overrightarrow{𝑣}_μ$ are the nucleon and muon intrinsic velocities, and $\overrightarrow{𝑣}_T$ is the target recoil velocity. We discuss previous work, noting the lack of a systematic treatment of the various small parameters. Because the parameter 𝑦 is not small, a proper calculation of 𝜇→𝑒 conversion requires a full multipole expansion of the nuclear response functions, an apparently daunting task with Coulomb-distorted electron partial waves. We demonstrate that the multipole expansion can be carried out to high precision by introducing a simplifying local momentum 𝑞 eff for the electron. Previous work has been limited to simple charge or spin interactions, thereby treating the nucleus effectively as a point particle. We show that such formulations are not compatible with the general form of the 𝜇→𝑒 conversion rate, failing to generate three of the six allowed nuclear response functions. The inclusion of the nucleon velocity $\overrightarrow{𝑣}_N$ yields an NRET with 16 operators and a rate of the general form. Consequently, in the current discovery era for CLFV, it provides the most sensible starting point for experimental analysis, defining what can and cannot be determined about CLFV from the highly exclusive process of 𝜇→𝑒 conversion. Finally, we expand the NRET operator basis to account for the effects of $\overrightarrow{𝑣}_μ$, associated with the muon's lower component, generating corrections to the CLFV coefficients of the point-nucleus response functions. Using advanced shell-model methods, we compute 𝜇→𝑒 conversion rates for a series of experimental targets, deriving bounds on the coefficients of the CLFV operators. These calculations are the first to include a general basis of CLFV operators, full evaluation of the associated nuclear response functions, and an accurate treatment of electron and muon Coulomb effects. We discuss target selection as an experimental “knob” that can be turned to probe the microscopic origins of CLFV. We describe two types of coherence that enhance certain CLFV operators and selection rules that blind elastic 𝜇→𝑒 conversion to others. We discuss the matching of the NRET onto higher level effective field theories, such as those constructed at the light quark level, noting opportunities to build on existing work in direct detection of dark matter. We discuss the relation of 𝜇→𝑒 conversion to 𝜇→𝑒+𝛾 and 𝜇→3⁢𝑒, showing how MEG II and Mu3e results will complement those of Mu2e and COMET. Finally we describe a accompanying script—in Mathematica and Python versions—that can be used to compute 𝜇→𝑒 conversion rates in various nuclear targets for the full set of NRET operators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Real-Time Anomaly Detection for Beyond Standard Model Searches in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift

This paper summarizes work conducted throughout a SULI internship at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory focused on building an unsupervised machine learning model for real-time anomaly detection in ProtoDUNE Horizontal Drift. Using simulated data, we trained an autoencoder model on a pure cosmic dataset, and evaluated it on both cosmic and neutrino events---making the model an anomaly detector. The goal was to make a model which matches or exceeds the current ADC Simple Window trigger algorithm so that our model can perform at the same rate but provide sensitivity to potential beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) signatures. In the end, we were able to construct a model which slightly exceeds the capabilities of the ADC Simple Window while remaining completely unsupervised, achieving $31.9 \pm 0.2$\% ($26.6 \pm 0.2$\%) $\nu$ efficiency at 5 Hz (2 Hz), a 3.6 (3.2) percentage point increase. Additionally, $17.5 \pm 0.3$\% ($18.3 \pm 0.3$\%) of the events that passed the autoencoder at 5 Hz (2 Hz) were missed by the current trigger algorithm. Future work will investigate alternative normalization methods, including quantile transformation, and evaluate the model on ProtoDUNE-HD detector-glitch data if that data becomes available.

Wilson, Cameron C. [Cincinnati U., RWC]↗

Pauling’s rules for oxide-based minerals: A re-examination based on quantum mechanical constraints and modern applications of bond-valence theory to Earth materials

Since their introduction in 1929, Pauling’s five rules have been used by scientists from many disciplines to rationalize and predict stable arrangements of atoms and coordination polyhedra in crystalline solids; amorphous materials such as silicate glasses and melts; nanomaterials, poorly crystalline solids; aqueous cation and anion complexes; and sorption complexes at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces. The predictive power of these simple yet powerful rules was challenged recently by George et al. (2020), who performed a statistical analysis of the performance of Pauling’s five rules for about 5000 oxide crystal structures. They concluded that only 13% of the oxides satisfy the last four rules simultaneously and that the second rule has the most exceptions. They also found that Pauling’s first rule is satisfied for only 66% of the coordination environments tested and concluded that no simple rule linking ionic radius to coordination environment will be predictive due to the variable quality of univalent radii. We address these concerns and discuss quantum mechanical calculations that complement Pauling’s rules, particularly his first (radius sum and radius ratio rule) and second (electrostatic valence rule) rules. We also present a more realistic view of the bonded radii of atoms, derived by determining the local minimum in the electron density distribution measured along trajectories between bonded atoms known as bond paths, i.e., the bond critical point (rc). Electron density at the bond critical point is a quantum mechanical observable that correlates well with Pauling bond strength. Moreover, a metal atom in a polyhedron has as many bonded radii as it has bonded interactions, resulting in metal and O atoms that may not be spherical. O atoms, for example, are not spherical in many oxide-based crystal structures. Instead, the electron density of a bonded oxygen is often highly distorted or polarized, with its bonded radius decreasing systematically from ~1.38 Å when bonded to highly electropositive atoms like sodium to 0.64 Å when bonded to highly electronegative atoms like nitrogen. Bonded radii determined for metal atoms match the Shannon (1976) radii for more electropositive atoms, but the match decreases systematically as the electronegativities of the M atoms increase. As a result, significant departures from the radius ratio rule in the analysis by George et al. (2020) is not surprising. We offer a modified, more fundamental version of Pauling’s first rule and demonstrate that the second rule has a one-to-one connection between the electron density accumulated between the bonded atoms at the bond critical point and the Pauling bond strength of the bonded interaction. Pauling’s second rule implicitly assumes that bond strength is invariant with bond length for a given pair of bonded atoms. Many studies have since shown that this is not the case, and Brown and Shannon (1973) developed an equation and a set of parameters to describe the relation between bond length and bond strength, now redefined as bond valence to avoid confusion with Pauling bond-strength. Brown (1980) used the valence-sum rule, together with the path rule and the valence-matching principle, as the three axioms of bond-valence theory (BVT), a powerful method for understanding many otherwise elusive aspects of crystals and also their participation in dynamic processes. We show how a priori bond-valence calculations can predict unstrained bond-lengths and how bond-valence mapping can locate low-Z atoms in a crystal structure (e.g., Li) or examine possible diffusion pathways for atoms through crystal structures. In addition, we briefly discuss Pauling’s third, fourth, and fifth rules, the first two of which concern the sharing of polyhedron elements (edges and faces) and the common instability associated with structures in which a polyhedron shares an edge or face with another polyhedron and contains high-valence cations. The olivine [α-(MgxFe1–x)2SiO4] crystal structure is used to illustrate the distortions from hexagonal close-packing of O atoms caused by metal-metal repulsion across shared polyhedron edges. We conclude by discussing several applications of BVT to Earth materials, including the use of BVT to: (1) locate H+ ions in crystal structures, including the location of protons in the crystal structures of nominally anhydrous minerals in Earth’s mantle; (2) determine how strongly bonded (usually anionic) structural units interact with weakly bonded (usually cationic) interstitial complexes in complex uranyl-oxide and uranyl-oxysalt minerals using the valence-matching principle; (3) calculate Lewis acid strengths of cations and Lewis base strengths of anions; (4) determine how (H2O) groups can function as bond-valence transformers by dividing one bond into two bonds of half the bond valence; (5) help characterize products of sorption reactions of aqueous cations (e.g., Co2+ and Pb2+) and oxyanions [e.g., selenate (Se6+O4)2- and selenite (Se4+O3)2-] at mineral-aqueous solution interfaces and the important role of protons in these reactions; and (6) help characterize the local coordination environments of highly charged cations (e.g., Zr4+, Ti4+, U4+, U5+, and U6+) in silicate glasses and melts.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Real-Time Detection of Charge Jumps in Superconducting Qubits with a Convolutional Neural Network

Ionizing radiation from cosmic rays and gammas can induce discontinuous jumps in the environmental charge of superconducting qubits (charge jumps), causing correlated errors that challenge fault-tolerant quantum computing while simultaneously providing a detection signature for quantum sensing applications. Current detection methods operate offline, introducing latency incompatible with in-the-loop qubit control. In this paper, an online detector of charge jumps for superconducting qubits, based on a dilated causal convolutional neural network (DCCNN) designed for in-the-loop deployment on the Quantum Instrumentation Control Kit (QICK) platform, is presented. The network is trained on synthetic Ramsey tomography scans generated from qubit templates measured at the Northwestern Experimental Underground Site (NEXUS) at Fermilab, and translated to FPGA firmware via hls4ml with ap_fixed$\langle 16,6 \rangle$ quantization, reaching a per-inference latency of $6.19 μ$s on the Zynq UltraScale+ RFSoC ZCU216. At this operating point the DCCNN matches the detection efficiency of the established offline $χ^2$ algorithm ($0.843 \pm 0.022$ vs. $0.866 \pm 0.020$ on $|Δq| \in [0.1, 0.5] e$ at matched false-positive rate), while requiring no per-qubit hyperparameter tuning. This shifts charge-jump detection from a post-hoc diagnostic to a control-loop primitive, enabling adaptive protocols that respond to radiation-induced events in situ, with applications to quantum-computing error mitigation and to the use of superconducting qubits as particle detectors.

Gaytan-Villarreal, Daniel [Carnegie Mellon U.]↗

Improved Gamma-Ray Point Source Quantification in Three Dimensions by Modeling Attenuation in the Scene

We discuss using a series of detector measurements taken at different locations to localize a source of radiation as a well-studied problem. The source of radiation is sometimes constrained to a single point-like source, in which case the location of the point source can be found using techniques such as maximum likelihood. Recent advancements have shown the ability to locate point sources in 2D and even 3D, but few have studied the effect of intervening material on the problem. In this work we examine gamma-ray data taken from a freely moving system and develop voxelized 3-D models of the scene using data from the onboard LiDAR. Ray casting is used to compute the distance each gamma ray travels through the scene material, which is then used to calculate attenuation assuming a single attenuation coefficient for solids within the geometry. Parameter estimation using maximum likelihood is performed to simultaneously find the attenuation coefficient, source activity, and source position that best match the data. Using a simulation, we validate the ability of this method to reconstruct the true location and activity of a source, along with the true attenuation coefficient of the structure it is inside, and then we apply the method to measured data with sources and find good agreement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

HLA-Clus: HLA class I clustering based on 3D structure

In a previous paper, we classified populated HLA class I alleles into supertypes and subtypes based on the similarity of 3D landscape of peptide binding grooves, using newly defined structure distance metric and hierarchical clustering approach. Compared to other approaches, our method achieves higher correlation with peptide binding specificity, intra-cluster similarity (cohesion), and robustness. Here we introduce HLA-Clus, a Python package for clustering HLA Class I alleles using the method we developed recently and describe additional features including a new nearest neighbor clustering method that facilitates clustering based on user-defined criteria. The HLA-Clus pipeline includes three stages: First, HLA Class I structural models are coarse grained and transformed into clouds of labeled points. Second, similarities between alleles are determined using a newly defined structure distance metric that accounts for spatial and physicochemical similarities. Finally, alleles are clustered via hierarchical or nearest-neighbor approaches. We also interfaced HLA-Clus with the peptide:HLA affinity predictor MHCnuggets. By using the nearest neighbor clustering method to select optimal allele-specific deep learning models in MHCnuggets, the average accuracy of peptide binding prediction of rare alleles was improved. The HLA-Clus package offers a solution for characterizing the peptide binding specificities of a large number of HLA alleles. This method can be applied in HLA functional studies, such as the development of peptide affinity predictors, disease association studies, and HLA matching for grafting. HLA-Clus is freely available at our GitHub repository (https://github.com/yshen25/HLA-Clus).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗