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DOE OSTI2022

Extrapolating Contaminant Effects from Individuals to Populations: A Case Study on Nanoparticle Toxicity to Daphnia Fed Environmentally Relevant Food Levels

Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Contrasting patterns of genome-level diversity across distinct co-occurring bacterial populations

To understand the forces driving differentiation and diversification in wild bacterial populations, we must be able to delineate and track ecologically relevant units through space and time. Mapping metagenomic sequences to reference genomes derived from the same environment can reveal genetic heterogeneity within populations, and in some cases, be used to identify boundaries between genetically similar, but ecologically distinct, populations. Here we examine population-level heterogeneity within abundant and ubiquitous freshwater bacterial groups such as the acI Actinobacteria and LD12 Alphaproteobacteria (the freshwater sister clade to the marine SAR11) using 33 single-cell genomes and a 5-year metagenomic time series. The single-cell genomes grouped into 15 monophyletic clusters (termed "tribes") that share at least 97.9% 16S rRNA identity. Distinct populations were identified within most tribes based on the patterns of metagenomic read recruitments to single-cell genomes representing these tribes. Genetically distinct populations within tribes of the acI Actinobacterial lineage living in the same lake had different seasonal abundance patterns, suggesting these populations were also ecologically distinct. In contrast, sympatric LD12 populations were less genetically differentiated. This suggests that within one lake, some freshwater lineages harbor genetically discrete (but still closely related) and ecologically distinct populations, while other lineages are composed of less differentiated populations with overlapping niches. Our results point at an interplay of evolutionary and ecological forces acting on these communities that can be observed in real time.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

National population mapping from sparse survey data: A hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to account for uncertainty

Population estimates are critical for government services, development projects, and public health campaigns. Such data are typically obtained through a national population and housing census. However, population estimates can quickly become inaccurate in localized areas, particularly where migration or displacement has occurred. Some conflict-affected and resource-poor countries have not conducted a census in over 10 y. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate population numbers in small areas based on enumeration data from sample areas and nationwide information about administrative boundaries, building locations, settlement types, and other factors related to population density. We demonstrated this model by estimating population sizes in every 10- m grid cell in Nigeria with national coverage. These gridded population estimates and areal population totals derived from them are accompanied by estimates of uncertainty based on Bayesian posterior probabilities. The model had an overall error rate of 67 people per hectare (mean of absolute residuals) or 43% (using scaled residuals) for predictions in out-of-sample survey areas (approximately 3 ha each), with increased precision expected for aggregated population totals in larger areas. This statistical approach represents a significant step toward estimating populations at high resolution with national coverage in the absence of a complete and recent census, while also providing reliable estimates of uncertainty to support informed decision making.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development and validation of a diabetes risk score among two populations

The purpose of this study was to assess the validity of a practical diabetes risk score amongst two heterogenous populations, a working population and a non-working population. Study population 1 (n = 2,089) participated in a large-scale screening program offered to retired workers to discover previously undetected/incipient chronic illness. Study population 2 (n = 3,293) was part of a Colorado worksite wellness program health risk assessment. We assessed the relationship between a continuous diabetes risk score at baseline and development of diabetes in the future using logistic regression. Receiver operating curves and sensitivity/specificity of the models were calculated. Across both study populations, we observed that participants with diabetes at follow-up had higher diabetes risk scores at baseline than participants who did not have diabetes at follow-up. On average, the odds ratio of developing diabetes in the future was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.26–1.50, p < 0.0001) for study population 1 and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.45–1.95, p-value < 0.0001) for study population 2. These findings indicate that the diabetes risk score may be generalizable to diverse individuals, and thus potentially a population level diabetes screening tool. Minimally-invasive diabetes risk scores can aid in the identification of sub-populations of individuals at risk for diabetes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Acoustic and Genetic Approaches for Informing Population Status and Trends of Migratory Tree Bats

Through the systematic collection of acoustic and genetic data over time, a weight of evidence may be built that will support an improved understanding around population stability for migratory tree-roosting bat species. This information can be leveraged to infer the influence stressors have on population stability, and subsequently determine the level of response necessary to sustain healthy populations. Here, we synthesize the existing information related to bat population status and trends, uncertainty regarding existing estimates, current and novel methods for assessing population-level data, and recommendations for near-term and long-term studies to reduce uncertainty surrounding population data. Although this report focuses on wind energy development and bats, the methods used are broadly applicable and are being implemented by other industries, academia, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations. Through efforts outside of the wind energy industry, it is likely we will gain a better understanding of bat populations, but the pace of data collection and analysis will be expedited by further participation by the wind energy industry. In return, the wind energy industry will benefit by contributing to these efforts either by 1) discovering that the population status of the species of interest is stable or growing, which may prevent the need for listing one or more species; or 2) recognizing the population status of certain species is in decline and implementing relatively moderate measures to reduce wind turbine-related mortality in the near term to stave off more stringent measures, which may be necessary if action is delayed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Abstract Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila . We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species’ thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt ), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T . thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r . We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r , plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Impact of Metal Population Distribution in MFI-Supported Mo Catalysts for Methane Dehydroaromatization

Precise evaluation of intrinsic kinetic behavior in Mo/MFI catalysts for methane dehydroaromatization (MDA) is confounded by variations in Mo dispersion and speciation, which are influenced by metal loading and zeolite acidity. This work advances the utility of H 2 -temperature programmed reduction (H 2 -TPR) for characterizing Mo/MFI catalysts by enabling quantitative comparison of MoO x populations distinguished by reduction behavior and linked to initial catalytic performance. A comprehensive H 2 reduction pathway is established through systematic H 2 - TPR studies varying catalyst composition (1–10 wt % Mo, Si/Al = 15, 40, ∞), supplemented by UV-Raman spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, N 2 physisorption, NH 3 -TPD, and advanced spectroscopic analysis (in situ XAS with principal component analysis/multivariate curve resolution—alternating least squares). Two low-temperature H 2 -TPR regions capture distinct Mo populations undergoing initial Mo(VI)→Mo(IV) reduction: a lower-temperature population (Mo-RI) associated primarily with highly dispersed, anchored MoO x species expected to predominantly reside within MFI channels, and a higher-temperature population (Mo-RII) corresponding to a broader set of MoO x species that becomes increasingly bulk-like/extrazeolitic at higher Mo loading. Quantification of these populations provides practical, kinetically relevant descriptors for comparing initial MDA rates across catalysts with varying Mo loading, Si/Al ratio, and MoO x heterogeneity. Application of lower-temperature Mo-RI estimates to kinetic measurements reveals a minimum threshold of ∼0.12 × 10 –3 mol Mo-RI/g cat , above which initial forward benzene rates normalized to this population converge despite differences in metal loading and zeolite Brønsted acidity. This threshold coincides with a transition toward a common C 2 -mediated benzene-forming regime, as indicated by approach-to-equilibrium analysis of methane-to-ethane, ethane-to-ethylene, and ethylene-to-benzene reaction steps. Above this threshold, normalized initial benzene rates are nearly invariant with increasing Mo-RII/Mo-RI population ratio, indicating that excess Mo-RII populations, including bulk-like/extrazeolitic MoO x domains present at higher loading, do not measurably suppress benzene formation associated with anchored and mostly channel-confined Mo population under the initial-rate conditions examined.

Mo/MFI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land

Abstract Population concentration and built‐up land expansion are two prominent features of contemporary urbanization. Existing literature on the population aspect of urbanization has mostly focused on national and regional aggregates, and literature on the land development aspect has often relied on spatial case studies of individual cities or their meta‐analyses. Using newly‐available data, here we conduct the first global‐coverage, spatial analysis of the relationship between (changes in) population and built‐up land at multiple spatial scales, and compare to existing common beliefs about urbanization based on individual city studies. We find that population and built‐up land show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns (with a global correlation coefficient around 0.6). Contrary to common impressions, our results show that during recent decades, developed and developing regions across the world experienced comparable amounts of built‐up land expansion. While meta‐analyses have reported that built‐up land in urban areas expands globally on average twice as fast as population grows, our results show the global change rates of built‐up land and population are similar. Also, most global population, including what national statistics agencies call urban population, reside in areas with low land development levels (which are frequently less than 5% built up). These changes in perspective suggest that urbanization's potential large‐scale impacts may need to be re‐evaluated, and lead to best‐practice recommendations for urbanization modeling and analysis. Especially, the common practice in large‐scale earth system modeling of assuming demographically‐defined urban population resides in areas with medium to high built‐up land development levels should change.

Gao, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sulfur Geochemistry Destabilizes Population Oscillations of Wild Rice ( Zizania palustris )

Abstract Elevated inputs of sulfate to freshwater systems can increase sulfide concentrations in anoxic soils and subsequently destabilize aquatic plant populations, but the interactions between sulfate, other geochemical cycles, and interannual plant population cycles are poorly understood. Increased sulfate loading increases mineralization of nitrogen from litter, but the sulfide produced during this process can limit nitrogen uptake by plants. In some cases, iron may mitigate sulfide's impacts on plants by precipitating iron sulfide. We examined the interannual effects of sulfate loading on mesocosm populations of wild rice, an emergent aquatic plant that undergoes population oscillations and is sensitive to sulfide. Using experimental mesocosms with self‐perpetuating populations, we investigated how population dynamics respond to manipulations of surface water sulfate (10 mg L −1 or 300 mg L −1 ), sediment iron (4.3 mg g −1 or 10.9 mg g −1 dry weight), and shoot litter (present or removed). Populations exposed to constant 10 mg L −1 sulfate concentrations had stable biomass oscillations of approximately 3‐year periods, consistent with previous studies that demonstrated litter‐driven oscillations in nitrogen availability. Populations exposed to 300 mg L −1 sulfate concentrations produced fewer and smaller seeds and declined to extinction in 6 years or less. We did not find a strong effect of iron loading or litter removal on wild rice biomass or seed production. Our observations show the potential of elevated surface water sulfate to rapidly destabilize wild rice populations under varying iron and organic carbon concentrations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Scaling mercury biodynamics from individuals to populations: Implications of an herbivorous fish on mercury cycles in streams

Mercury (Hg) is a widespread environmental pollutant anthropogenically released into aquatic ecosystems where it is tightly retained and cycled through a combination of abiotic and biotic processes. The organic form of Hg, Methylmercury (MeHg), binds to organic carbon chains and efficiently bioaccumulates through aquatic food webs to toxic levels in consumers. For these reasons, understanding the transport and fate of mercury, including the role of organisms in these cycles, is important. The premise of the Somatic Growth Dilution (SGD) concept is that bioaccumulation of contaminants will become more dilute within an organism as it displays higher growth efficiency. While multiple studies have substantiated the effects of SGD on reduced MeHg concentrations at the individual level, the implications of SGD to populations and overall food web dynamics is uncertain. Herein, we examined the influence of SGD on total MeHg standing stock and flux in stoneroller ( Campostoma oligolepis ) populations at five sites in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC), a stream contaminated by Hg on the Oak Ridge Reservation. We assessed patterns in periphyton and stoneroller MeHg concentrations in relation to relative growth and population density to determine evidence of SGD and density-dependent growth, respectively. We then calibrated a biodynamic model relating MeHg concentration in stonerollers to growth rate, assimilation efficiency, uptake, and elimination of MeHg. Using over 30 years of population data, individual biodynamic models were scaled to the population level to analyze the effects of population density and growth on MeHg standing stock (ug m -2 ) in stoneroller populations and flux (ug m -2 d -1 ) from periphyton communities to stonerollers. We found evidence of both density-dependent and “boom-and-bust” growth patterns for stonerollers in EFPC. In congruence with the SGD concept, sites with higher average relative growth had lower MeHg concentrations. However, total MeHg standing stock and flux was strongly related to population density, irrespective of changing growth patterns. Additionally, higher relative growth was positively related to a higher total MeHg flux. However, the implications of growth on the transfer of MeHg in food webs is complicated and dependent upon population size, age structure, and growth-at-age. Our results also suggest that stonerollers may play significant roles in contaminant cycles in EFPC by mobilizing considerable quantities of Hg, storing significant reservoirs of hg and MeHg, and transferring MeHg to higher trophic levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cell Population–resolved Multiomics Atlas of the Developing Lung

The lung is a vital organ that undergoes extensive morphological and functional changes during postnatal development. To disambiguate how different cell populations contribute to organ development, we performed proteomic and transcriptomic analyses of four sorted cell populations from the lung of human subjects aged 0 to 8 years-old with a focus on early life. The cell populations analyzed included epithelial, endothelial, mesenchymal, and immune cells. Our results revealed distinct molecular signatures for each of the sorted cell populations that enable the description of molecular shifts occurring in these populations during post-natal development. Here, we confirmed that the proteome of the different cell populations was distinct regardless of age and identified functions specific to each population. We identified a series of cell population protein markers, including those located at the cell surface, that show differential expression and distribution on RNA in situ hybridization and immunofluorescence imaging. We validated the spatial distribution of AT1 and endothelial cell surface markers. Temporal analyses of the proteome of each of the four populations revealed processes modulated during postnatal development and disambiguating results obtained on whole tissue proteome. Finally, the proteome was compared to a transcriptomics survey performed on the same lung samples to evaluate processes under post-transcriptional control.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Xeric Tree Populations Exhibit Delayed Summer Depletion of Root Starch Relative to Mesic Counterparts

Research linking soil moisture availability to nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) storage suggests greater NSC reserves promote survival under acute water stress, but little is known about how NSC allocation responds to long-term differences in water availabilty. We hypothesized populations experiencing chronic or frequent water stress shift carbon allocation to build greater NSC reserves for increased survival probability during drought relative to populations rarely experiencing water stress. Over a year, we measured soluble sugar and starch concentrations from branches, stems, and coarse roots of mature Pinus palustris trees at two sites differing in long-term soil moisture availability. Xeric and mesic populations exhibited a cycle of summer depletion-winter accumulation in root starch. Xeric populations reached a maximum root starch concentration approximately 1–2 months later than mesic populations, indicating delayed summer depletion. Xeric and mesic populations reached the same minimum root starch at similar times, suggesting extended winter accumulation for xeric populations. These results suggest seasonal mobilization from root starch is compressed into a shorter interval for xeric populations instead of consistently greater reserves as hypothesized. Seasonal trends differed little between xeric and mesic populations for starch and sugars, suggesting the importance of roots in seasonal carbon dynamics and the primacy of starch for storage. If roots are the primary organ for longterm storage, then our results suggest that whole-plant mobilization and allocation respond to chronic differences in water availability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Population Simulation, AKA: Grahz, Rahbitz and Fawkzes

In an effort to give students a more visceral experience of science and instill a deeper working knowledge of concepts, activities that utilize hands-on, laboratory and simulated experiences are recommended because these activities have a greater impact on student learning, especially for Native American students. Because it is not usually feasible to take large and/or multiple classes of high school science students into the field to count numbers of organisms of a particular species, especially over a long period of time and covering a large area of an environment, the population simulation presented in this paper was created to aid students in understanding population dynamics by working with a simulated environment, which can be done in the classroom. Students create an environment and populate the environment with imaginary species. Then, using a sequence of "rules" that allow organisms to eat, reproduce, move and age, students see how the population of a species changes over time. In particular, students practice collecting data, summarizing information, plotting graphs, and interpreting graphs for such information as carrying capacity, predator prey relationships, and how specific species factors impact population and the environment. Students draw conclusions from their results and suggest further research, which may involve changes in simulation parameters, prediction of outcomes, and testing predictions. The population Simulation has demonstrated success in the above student activities using a "board game" version of the population simulation. A computer version of the population simulation needs more testing, but preliminary runs are promising. A second - and more complicated - computer simulation will simulate the same things and will add simulated population genetics.

Bangert, Tyler R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Probing the X-Ray Binary Populations of the Ring Galaxy NGC 1291

We present Chandra studies of the X-ray binary (XRB) populations in the bulge and ring regions of the ring galaxy NGC 1291. We detect 169 X-ray point sources in the galaxy, 75 in the bulge and 71 in the ring, utilizing the four available Chandra observations totaling an effective exposure of 179 ks. We report photometric properties of these sources in a point-source catalog. There are approx. 40% of the bulge sources and approx. 25% of the ring sources showing > 3(sigma) long-term variability in their X-ray count rate. The X-ray colors suggest that a significant fraction of the bulge (approx. 75%) and ring (approx. 65%) sources are likely low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). The spectra of the nuclear source indicate that it is a low-luminosity AGN with moderate obscuration; spectral variability is observed between individual observations. We construct 0.3-8.0 keV X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for the bulge and ring XRB populations, taking into account the detection incompleteness and background AGN contamination. We reach 90% completeness limits of approx.1.5 x 10(exp 37) and approx. 2.2 x 10(exp 37) erg/s for the bulge and ring populations, respectively. Both XLFs can be fit with a broken power-law model, and the shapes are consistent with those expected for populations dominated by LMXBs. We perform detailed population synthesis modeling of the XRB populations in NGC 1291 , which suggests that the observed combined XLF is dominated by aD old LMXB population. We compare the bulge and ring XRB populations, and argue that the ring XRBs are associated with a younger stellar population than the bulge sources, based on the relative over-density of X-ray sources in the ring, the generally harder X-ray color of the ring sources, the overabundance of luminous sources in the combined XLF, and the flatter shape of the ring XLF.

Luo, B.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Sustainable Development in Algeria’s Urban Areas: Population Growth and Land Consumption

We analyzed the urban development sustainability in five major urban areas of Algeria by the standard of the UN Sustainability Development Goal indicator SDG 11.3.1, which focuses on the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate. We utilized the annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA) dataset to characterize land-use and population data from the two censuses carried out by the National Office of Statistics (ONS) for 2008 and 2018. We discuss the prevailing relationship between urban land consumption rate and population growth rate at the smallest territorial and population census unit scale. We confirm that the indicator SDG 11.3.1 is nonlinear and that while, for example, the wilaya of Tlemcen as a whole appears to be on a sustainable path, twenty-one of its communes are not. We found that overall, and for most of its communes, the wilaya of Oran seems to have an urban land use commensurable to its population growth, but in the wilaya of Algiers, out of fifty-seven communes, only fourteen have a tendency towards sustain-able development. However, the latter wilaya hosts the country’s capital and includes government buildings that are uninhabited but are accounted for as land consumed, and as such, the relationship between urban land consumption and population growth is biased. The wilaya of Annaba showed large discrepancies in terms of land use and population growth rates, and the evolution of these quantities is not homogenous across communes and not sustainable. In the Saharan wilaya of Ghardaia, the development is not homogeneous in all communes, with smaller communes undergoing buildup increases of more than 150% over the decade. Finally, in all communes where population growth exceeded urban land growth, there will be overcrowding, an aspect neither the SDG 11.3.1 nor the impervious surface per capita indicator captures. This result, in addition to other limitations, makes SDG 11.3.1 incomplete for the determination of the sustainable development in urban areas.

Algeria↗