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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic solvent chamber propagation estimation framework using RNN for warm solvent injection in heterogeneous reservoirs

Warm solvent injection (WSI), injecting low-temperature solvent into formations to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, is a clean technology for heavy oil production through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage. The success of WSI operation depends on the uniform development and propagation of solvent chambers in reservoirs. However, reservoir heterogeneity stemming from shale barriers plays a detrimental role in the conformance of solvent chamber development and oil production rate. In this work, we developed a novel recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework with the capability of efficiently tracking and estimating the solvent chamber positions in heterogeneous reservoirs based on only production time-series data. The developed estimation model utilizes the “sequence-to-sequence" mapping methodology to correlate observed production time-series sequence and solvent chamber edge sequence via a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The trained RNN models exhibit high accuracy, evidenced by the predicted dynamic solvent chamber locations match the corresponding true locations from numerical simulation, with a high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and a low mean squared error. Specifically, the achieved R 2 values exceed 0.98 on both the training and testing data. The developed RNN-based workflow was tested via several cases from both regularly- and irregularly-shaped shale barriers, and the results were promising. The predicted solvent chambers showed strong agreement with those obtained from numerical simulations. The major benefits of this workflow include reducing computational time and saving overall monitoring and tracking costs for conventional techniques. In conclusion, the present work would provide a good demonstration of the capability of practical integration of machine learning methods in solving engineering problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-arrival infrasound from meteoroids: Fragmentation signatures versus propagation effects in a fine-scale layered atmosphere

Infrasonic signatures of meteoroid fragmentation are frequently ambiguous: do multiple arrivals signify a complex breakup or merely the distorting effects of a layered atmosphere? Resolving this ambiguity is critical for accurate energy estimates and source reconstruction. In this study, we address this challenge by analyzing a unique regional dataset of well-constrained meteoroid events observed by the Southern Ontario Meteor Network and the co-located Elginfield Infrasound Array. We employ pseudo-differential parabolic equation (PPE) simulations to quantify how fine-scale gravity-wave structures in the stratosphere and lower thermosphere modify acoustic waveforms at ranges <300 km. Our modeling reveals that while fine-scale layering can stretch signals and generate diffuse oscillatory tails, it does not produce discrete, high-amplitude pulse splitting at ranges below ∼140 km. By applying these results to the rare multi-arrival event 20060305, we demonstrate that its distinct double arrival at 100 km range is inconsistent with atmospheric multipathing and provides definitive evidence of separate fragmentation episodes. These findings establish new diagnostic criteria for separating source physics from propagation artifacts, improving the reliability of infrasound as a monitoring tool for natural bolides, space debris re-entries, and catastrophic launch failures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A phase-field diffraction model for thermo-hydro-mechanical propagating fractures

This paper introduces a novel diffraction based thermo-hydraulic–mechanical (THM) model for fracture propagation using a phase-field fracture (PFF) approach. The key innovation of the THM-PFF model lies in its integrated treatment of four solution variables—displacements, phase-field, pressure, and temperature—each governed by a combination of conservation of momentum (mechanics problem), a variational inequality (constrained minimization problem), mass conservation (pressure problem), and energy conservation (temperature problem). This leads to a new formulation of a coupled variational inequality system. A major advancement is the development of an extended fixed-stress algorithm, where displacements, phase-field, pressures, and temperatures are solved in a staggered sequence. An important aspect of this work is the global coupling of pressures and temperatures across the domain using diffraction systems, with diffraction coefficients defined by material parameters weighted by the diffusive phase-field variable. To ensure robust local mass conservation, we employ enriched Galerkin finite elements (EG) for both pressure and temperature diffraction equations. By enriching the continuous Galerkin basis functions with discontinuous piecewise constants, EG accurately represents solution and parameter discontinuities while preserving local mass and energy conservation—crucial aspects for THM problems and realistic behavior. Moreover, the use of a predictor–corrector local mesh adaptivity scheme is employed, allowing the model to handle small phase-field length-scale parameters while maintaining high numerical accuracy and reasonable computational cost. Furthermore, these new model and algorithmic developments represent significant advances in the field and have been substantiated through rigorous numerical tests.

Diffraction systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Large Propagation-Direction-Dependent Circularly Polarized Emission and Scattering Anisotropies of a Chiral Organic-Inorganic Semiconductor

Chiral materials are important tools for transducing circularly polarized light within many emerging opto-electronic and spin-based technologies. Here, we demonstrate that thin films of a bismuth iodide-based 0D chiral hybrid organic-inorganic semiconductor (HOIS) exhibit large anisotropy values in circularly polarized light emission (CPLE) that approach 50%, with mirror-image responses from front- and back-side measurements. A comprehensive analysis of light-wave propagation, absorption, emission, and scattering is constructed on the basis of a symmetry-derived exciton fine structure model, which accurately describes the direction and polarization dependence of the observed excitonic circular dichroism and CPLE, including contributions from both photoluminescence and resonant Raman scattering. Our analysis indicates that molecular chirality drives preferential film alignment with respect to the out-of-plane lattice vector direction, producing the observed anisotropies. This first demonstration in an HOIS system provides a unique route for enhancing polarization-dependent emission, and circularly polarized light transduction more broadly, in self-assembled HOIS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagation of EMIC Waves From Shabansky Orbits in the Dayside Magnetosphere

We explore the characteristics of EMIC waves generated in a non-dipole, compressed magnetic field at the minimum of the magnetic field. We conducted 2D full-wave simulations using the Petra-M code, focusing on a compressed magnetic field in the outer dayside magnetosphere for a range of L values (L = 8 - 10). By comparing the simulation results with MMS observations, we aim to understand how the observed wave characteristics are affected by a shifting source region across different L-shells. Our findings indicate that the direction of the Poynting vector systematically changes depending on the local source location of the wave, which is consistent with the observations. EMIC waves propagate along the magnetic field line and reach both the northern and southern hemispheres; however, there is a notable difference in the power of EMIC waves between the two hemispheres, indicating seasonal asymmetries in their occurrence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Density Irregularities on Radio Frequency Wave Propagation in Ionospheric Plasmas

Density irregularities play a vital role in determining how radio frequency (RF) waves travel through plasmas. In the Earth’s ionosphere, these density irregularities also impact radio communication. In this study, we conduct a detailed numerical analysis of RF wave propagation in small-scale ionospheric density irregularities using the advanced Petra-M code. We focus specifically on high-frequency (HF) waves, ranging from 3 to 30 MHz, which are essential for military, amateur radio operators, and emergency communications. By introducing density structures, such as equatorial plasma bubbles derived from fluid simulations, we demonstrate that HF waves can scatter in multiple directions when they encounter these irregularities. Additionally, we observe significant mode conversion, where incoming electromagnetic waves transform into electrostatic modes within the density gradient layer. This shows that smaller density irregularities can greatly weaken signals or cause complete signal loss for receivers, emphasizing the need for increased awareness and innovative solutions in radio communication transmission.

Kim, Eun-Hwa [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2024

ETHOS: An automated framework to generate multi-fidelity constitutive data tables and propagate uncertainties to hydrodynamic simulations

Accurate constitutive data, such as equations of state and plasma transport coefficients, are necessary for reliable hydrodynamic simulations of plasma systems such as fusion targets, planets, and stars. Here, we develop a framework for automatically generating transport-coefficient tables using a parameterized model that incorporates data from both high-fidelity sources (e.g., density functional theory calculations and reference experiments) and lower-fidelity sources (e.g., average-atom and analytic models). The framework incorporates uncertainties from these multi-fidelity sources, generating ensembles of optimally diverse tables that are suitable for uncertainty quantification of hydrodynamic simulations. We illustrate the utility of the framework with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of magnetically launched flyer plates, which are used to measure material properties in pulsed-power experiments. We explore how changes in the uncertainties assigned to the multi-fidelity data sources propagate to changes in simulation outputs and find that our simulations are most sensitive to uncertainties near the melting transition. The presented framework enables computationally efficient uncertainty quantification that readily incorporates new high-fidelity measurements or calculations and identifies plasma regimes where additional data will have high impact.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rippled shock propagation in a laser-driven target at multimegabar pressures

The evolution of non-uniform shocks produced by modulated laser irradiation or surface perturbations is relevant to studies of inertial confinement fusion and material properties at high-energy-density conditions. We present results from an experiment conducted at the OMEGA EP laser facility, where a 300 GPa shock was driven into a fused silica sample with pre-fabricated single-mode surface modulations. Using time-resolved optical velocimetry, we captured the continuous evolution of rippled shock motion, enabling a comprehensive mapping of the spatial amplitude history from formation to phase reversal in a single experiment. Initially, the ablation-driven shock inherits a fraction of the surface modulation amplitude from the sample, which subsequently grows before decaying, ultimately leading to the flattening of the rippled shock and a phase reversal. We find that two-dimensional inviscid hydrodynamic simulation of the experiment is able to qualitatively capture many aspects of the rippled shock evolution but over-predicts the initial amplitude growth. This experimental platform, capable of accommodating varying ripple wavelengths, lays the groundwork for a potential viscometry method at extreme pressures, where viscous effects manifest as differences in shock flattening times between rippled shocks of two distinct wavelengths propagating through the sample.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic Multiscale Uncertainty Propagation in Support of Accelerated Fuel Qualification

Taking a nuclear fuel concept through the research, development, and qualification stages has historically taken on the order of 20 to 25 years because of extensive irradiation tests required for a variety of conditions. The concept of accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ) has been proposed to increase the innovation pace for nuclear fuels. The goal of AFQ is not to replace the traditional qualification approach but rather to reduce the total number of experiments required to ensure approval from the regulatory authority. Of the many AFQ approaches being explored, advanced modeling—and, in particular, mechanistic modeling—is in a uniquely cross-cutting position to reduce the number of required integral tests through the inclusion of separate-effects testing, while helping to extrapolate reactor performance during rare events. We make the case that propagation of uncertainty through various computational length scales helps contextualize mechanistic modeling. We will utilize UO 2 fission gas diffusion predictions from the atomistically informed cluster dynamics code Centipede to inform fuel performance rodlet simulations using the BISON finite element code as the metric for showing how multiscale mechanistic uncertainty quantification can help reduce uncertainty in fuel performance. In conclusion, by quantifying uncertainty and its reduction through multiscale modeling, the qualification process may be accelerated through the reduction of costly irradiation experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Analytic Benchmark for Neutron Boltzmann Transport with Downscattering—Part IV: PFNS and $\bar{ν}$ Uncertainty Propagation

An analytic benchmark with continuous-energy cross sections was previously derived to validate criticality calculations. Here, to extend the utility of the analytic benchmark to verify the implementation of $\bar{ν}$ and prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) uncertainty propagation methods, new simplified forms that are dependent on the incident (fission-causing) neutron energy, as well as the outgoing neutron energy for the PFNS, are introduced in this work. The analytical forms for the flux and adjoint flux are derived for the extended benchmark and used to determine the 𝑘-eigenvalue sensitivity to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS. The 𝑘-eigenvalue uncertainty due to $\bar{ν}$ and PFNS is calculated for the analytic benchmark using simplified$\bar{ν}$ and PFNS representations based on the ENDF-B/VIII.0 239 Pu evaluation. Because of the low sensitivity of the analytic benchmark to the physical PFNS, a nonphysical high-sensitivity PFNS is also presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Theory of zonal flow growth and propagation in toroidal geometry

The toroidal geometry of tokamaks and stellarators is known to play a crucial role in the linear physics of zonal flows (ZFs), leading to e.g. the Rosenbluth–Hinton residual and geodesic acoustic modes. However, descriptions of the nonlinear ZF growth from a turbulent background typically resort to simplified models of the geometry. We present a generalised theory of the secondary instability to model the ZF growth from turbulent fluctuations in toroidal geometry, demonstrating that the radial magnetic drift substantially affects the nonlinear ZF dynamics. In particular, the toroidicity gives rise to a new branch of propagating ZFs, the toroidal secondary mode, which is nonlinearly supported by the turbulence. We present a theory of this mode and compare the theory against gyrokinetic simulations of the secondary mode. The connection with other secondary modes—the ion-temperature-gradient and Rogers–Dorland–Kotschenreuther secondary modes—is also examined.

Nies, Richard [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-powered data cleaning for LEGEND: a semi-supervised approach using affinity propagation and support vector machines

Neutrinoless double-beta decay ($0\nu\beta\beta$) is a rare nuclear process that, if observed, will provide insight into the nature of neutrinos and help explain the matter-antimatter asymmetry in the Universe. The large enriched germanium experiment for neutrinoless double-beta decay (LEGEND) will operate in two phases to search for $0\nu\beta\beta$. The first (second) stage will employ 200 (1000) kg of High-Purity Germanium (HPGe) enriched in 76 Ge to achieve a half-life sensitivity of 10 27 (10 28 ) years. In this study, we present a semi-supervised data-driven approach to remove non-physical events captured by HPGe detectors powered by a novel artificial intelligence model. We utilize affinity propagation to cluster waveform signals based on their shape and a support vector machine to classify them into different categories. We train, optimize, and test our model on data taken from a natural abundance HPGe detector installed in the Full Chain Test experimental stand at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. We demonstrate that our model yields a maximum sacrifice of physics events of $0.024 ^{+0.004}_{-0.003} \%$ after data cleaning. Our model is being used to accelerate data cleaning development for LEGEND-200 and will serve to improve data cleaning procedures for LEGEND-1000.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Visualizing nucleation, condensation and propagation of β-tubulin folding in chaperonin TRiC

AbstractThe folding nucleus (FN) initiates protein folding and enables an efficient folding pathway. Here we directly visualize the tubulin FN consisting of a nonnative, partially assembled Rossmann fold, in the closed chamber of human chaperonin TRiC. Chaperonin TRiC interacts with non-natively folded secondary structural elements, stabilizing the nucleus for transition into its first native domain. Through progressive folding, the unfolded sequence goes through drastic spatial arrangement in the TRiC chamber to sample the conformational space, mediated by the highly dynamic CCT tails. The observed presence of individual nonnative secondary structures first in the nonnative FN and then around the incrementally folded native domains supports the hypothesis that tubulin folding in TRiC is a hierarchical process of nucleation, condensation and propagation in cooperation with TRiC subunits.

Zhao, Yanyan (ORCID:0000000323021763)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Single pion production and pion propagation in A chilles

We extend the applicability of A chilles (A CHIcagoLand Lepton Event Simulator) by incorporating the single pion production mechanism in a fully exclusive fashion. The electroweak interaction vertex is modeled by combining the state-of-the-art dynamical coupled-channels approach with realistic hole spectral functions, which account for correlations in both the initial target state and the residual spectator system. Final-state interactions are treated using a semiclassical intranuclear cascade that leverages nuclear configurations to determine the correlated spatial distribution of protons and neutrons. The meson-baryon scattering amplitudes used in the cascade are computed within the dynamical coupled-channels framework, consistent with the electroweak vertex. To model pion absorption, we employ the optical potential approach of Oset and Salcedo [Nucl. Phys. A484, 557 (1988).]. As an alternative approach, we explicitly model the production and propagation of resonances which mediate pion-nucleon scattering and pion absorption. We validate our approach against pion-nucleon and pion-nucleus scattering data, and present comparisons with electron- and neutrino-nucleus measurements from e⁢4⁢𝜈, T2K, MINER⁢𝜈⁢A, and MicroBooNE.

Isaacson, Joshua [Michigan State Univ., East Lansi↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simulating plasma wave propagation on a superconducting quantum chip

Quantum computers may one day enable the efficient simulation of strongly coupled plasmas that lie beyond the reach of classical computation in regimes where quantum effects are important and the scale separation is large. Here, in this article, we take a first step toward efficient simulation of quantum plasmas by demonstrating linear plasma wave propagation on a superconducting quantum chip. Using high-fidelity and highly expressive device-native gates, combined with an error-mitigation technique, we simulate the scattering of laser pulses from inhomogeneous plasmas. Our approach is made feasible by the identification of a suitable local spin model whose excitations mimic plasma waves, and whose circuit implementation requires a lower gate count than other proposed approaches that would require a future fault-tolerant quantum computer. This work opens avenues to study more complicated phenomena that cannot be simulated efficiently on classical computers, such as nonlinear quantum dynamics when strongly coupled plasmas are driven out of equilibrium.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assay-based background projection for the Majorana Demonstrator using Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation

The background index (BI) is an important quantity to project and calculate the half-life sensitivity of neutrinoless double-𝛽 decay (0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽) experiments. An analysis framework is presented to calculate the BI using the specific activities, masses, and simulated efficiencies of an experiments components as distributions. This Bayesian framework includes a unified approach to combine specific activities from assay. Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation is used to build a BI distribution from the specific activity, mass, and efficiency distributions. This method is applied to the M AJORANA D EMONSTRATOR , which deployed arrays of high-purity Ge detectors enriched in 76 Ge to search for 0⁢𝜈⁢𝛽⁢𝛽. The original assay-based projection is requantified in the new framework, using the as-built geometry of the Demonstrator and additional assay information. While 47% higher than the original projection, the resulting BI of [8.95±0.36]×10 −4 cts/(keVkgyr) from the 232 Th and 238 U decay chains does not account for the higher-than-expected BI observed by the D EMONSTRATOR . Finally, this method enables us to demonstrate the statistical incompatibility between the D EMONSTRATOR 's observed background and the assay results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗