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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses: Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability - Part 2

The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.

Chen, Junye↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
NASA NTRS2021

Diagnosing Seasonal to Multi-decadal Phytoplankton Group Dynamics in a Highly Productive Coastal Ecosystem

The Santa Barbara Channel, CA (SBC) is a biodiverse marine ecosystem fueled largely by phytoplankton productivity, and the composition of the phytoplankton community influences the magnitude and fates of this productivity. Here, we create a 22-year monthly time series of phytoplankton biomarker pigment concentrations in the SBC by combining 12 years of high performance liquid chromatography phytoplankton pigment concentrations with bio-optical models and 10 additional years of bio-optical observations. The bio-optical models skillfully predict biomarker pigment concentrations representative of five distinct phytoplankton groups (PGs; diatoms, dinoflagellates, chlorophytes, prymnesiophytes, and picophytoplankton) and resolve seasonal responses to the annual upwelling-relaxation cycle for all PGs except the dinoflagellates. Our observations indicate that nanophytoplankton groups respond most rapidly to seasonal upwelling, followed by diatoms, and then by picophytoplankton as the water column stratifies in the summer. A Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) solution is used to relate advection of different source waters to the observed PG dynamics. The ROMS simulation results suggest that, on seasonal time scales, pronounced cross-SBC differences in PG seasonality are related to cross-SBC differences in source waters. El Niño Southern Oscillation events drive interannual variability in the upwelling response of most PGs. On decadal time scales, dinoflagellate blooms are associated with the warm phase of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and anomalous advection of Southern California Bight source waters into the SBC. Taken together, our results provide a novel view of phytoplankton community succession in response to seasonal upwelling by considering the dynamics of pico- and nano-phytoplankton and suggest that regional surface ocean advection plays a substantial role in driving phytoplankton composition in the SBC.

Phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Decadal Changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Response to the Changing ENSO in the Last Four Decades

The Antarctic Dipole (AD) structure, resulting from the Pacific South American pattern triggered by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), leads to a reduction in sea ice over the Ross and Amundsen Sea in the Pacific sector and an increase over the Weddell Sea in the Atlantic sector during El Niño, with the opposite occurring during La Niña. In the initial two decades of the 21st century, there is a notable weakening of the AD pattern compared to the late 20th century. This research provides evidence that the weakened AD pattern and the associated sea ice response are connected to a higher frequency of weaker and central Pacific type ENSO events, on average, in the early 21st century as opposed to the late 20th century.

Young-Kwon Lim↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of Extra-tropical ENSO Precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability

Abstract Off-equatorial wind anomalies on seasonal timescales from both the North and South Pacific, known as “precursors” of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to independently trigger the ENSO feedbacks in the tropics and its teleconnections to the extra-tropics. However, the impacts of ENSO precursors on Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) is still not well understood and quantified. We show that the dynamic sequence from extra-tropical ENSO precursors to ENSO (tropics) to extra-tropical ENSO teleconnections is not only important for ENSO, but acts as a primary mechanism to filter (e.g. reddening) the low-frequency variability of the seasonal precursors into the decadal-scale variance of the Pacific basin, accounting for the largest fraction of the TPDV (~65%) and its phase. This process, which contrasts previous theories advocating for a TPDV generated internally in the tropics (e.g. ENSO residuals), is inherently unpredictable and not well reproduced in climate models and raises challenges for understanding and predicting the role of internal TPDV in future climate change scenarios.

Zhao, Yingying↗
DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initialized decadal hindcasts conducted with and without historical volcanic forcing. Unexpectedly, the inclusion of volcanic forcing in the prediction system significantly degrades the forecast skill of detrended multiyear-to-decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The ensemble mean hindcasts produce multiyear-to-decadal tropical Pacific SST cooling in response to large tropical volcanic eruptions through thermodynamic and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–like dynamic processes. However, in observations, these eruptions coincided with tropical Pacific warming, which is well predicted by the no-volcano hindcasts and, hence, is likely related to internal climate variability. Improved model representation of volcanic response and its interaction with internal climate variability is required to advance prediction of tropical Pacific decadal variability and associated global impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Modulation of Terrestrial Convection by Tropospheric Humidity, and Implications for Other Planets

For decades, deep cumulus convection was viewed as consisting partly of undilute plumes that do not interact with their surrounding environment in order to explain their observed tendency to reach or penetrate the tropical tropopause. This behavior was built into all cumulus parameterizations used in terrestrial global climate and numerical weather prediction models, and it still persists in some models today. In the past decade, though, some embarrassing failures of global models have come to light, notably their tendency to rain over land near noon rather than in late afternoon or evening as observed, and the absence in the models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the major source of intraseasonal (30-90 day) precipitation variability in the Indian Ocean, West Pacific, and surrounding continental regions. In the past decade it has become clear that an important missing component of parameterizations is strong turbulent entrainment of drier environmental air into cumulus updrafts, which reduces the buoyancy of the updrafts and thus limits their vertical development. Tropospheric humidity thus serves as a throttle on convective penetration to high altitudes and delays the convective response to large-scale destabilizing influences in the environment.

tropical regions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

Robertson, F. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Evolution of Oceanic Precipitation Anomalies During El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Events of the Last Two Decades

The Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) recently released monthly global precipitation data that allowed an analysis of oceanic precipitation anomalies before, during, and after El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the last two decades. During each ENSO event, a major positive precipitation anomaly was observed in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, while a major negative precipitation anomaly was observed in the Western Equatorial Pacific and Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean. These precipitation anomalies co-varied strongly with sea surface temperature of the eastern equatorial Pacific, and may therefore be a good indicator of ENSO events. The precipitation anomaly pattern of 1997-98 differs significantly from previous ENSO events and calls certain aspects of current theories on ENSO into question.

Yuan, Jinchun↗
NASA NTRS2010

Seasonal to Decadal Variations of Water Vapor in the Tropical Lower Stratosphere Observed with Balloon-Borne Cryogenic Frost Point Hygrometers

We investigated water vapor variations in the tropical lower stratosphere on seasonal, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and decadal time scales using balloon-borne cryogenic frost point hygrometer data taken between 1993 and 2009 during various campaigns including the Central Equatorial Pacific Experiment (March 1993), campaigns once or twice annually during the Soundings of Ozone and Water in the Equatorial Region (SOWER) project in the eastern Pacific (1998-2003) and in the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (2001-2009), and the Ticosonde campaigns and regular sounding at Costa Rica (2005-2009). Quasi-regular sounding data taken at Costa Rica clearly show the tape recorder signal. The observed ascent rates agree well with the ones from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) satellite sensor. Average profiles from the recent five SOWER campaigns in the equatorial western, Pacific in northern winter and from the three Ticosonde campaigns at Costa Rica (10degN) in northern summer clearly show two effects of the QBO. One is the vertical displacement of water vapor profiles associated with the QBO meridional circulation anomalies, and the other is the concentration variations associated with the QBO tropopause temperature variations. Time series of cryogenic frost point hygrometer data averaged in a lower stratospheric layer together with HALOE and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder data show the existence of decadal variations: The mixing ratios were higher and increasing in the 1990s, lower in the early 2000s, and probably slightly higher again or recovering after 2004. Thus linear trend analysis is not appropriate to investigate the behavior of the tropical lower stratospheric water vapor.

Fujiwara, M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two Marine Heatwave (MHW) Variants under a Basinwide MHW Conditioning Mode in the North Pacific and Their Atlantic Associations

Abstract During 2013–16 and 2018–22, marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the North Pacific, exhibiting similar extensive coverage, lengthy duration, and significant intensity but with different warming centers. The warming center of the 2013–16 event was in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), while the 2018–22 event had warming centers in both the GOA and the coast of Japan (COJ). Our observational analysis indicates that these two events can be considered as two MHW variants induced by a basinwide MHW conditioning mode in the North Pacific. Both variants were driven thermodynamically by atmospheric wave trains propagating from the tropical Pacific to the North Pacific, within the conditioning mode. The origin and propagating path of these wave trains play a crucial role in determining the specific type of MHW variant. When a stronger wave train originates from the tropical central (western) Pacific, it leads to the GOA (COJ) variant. The cross-basin nature of the wave trains enables the two MHW variants to be accompanied by a tripolar pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic but with opposite phases. The association of these two MHW variants with the Atlantic Ocean also manifests in the decadal variations of their occurrence. Both variants tend to occur more frequently during the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation but less so during the negative phase. This study underscores the importance of cross-basin associations between the North Pacific and North Atlantic in shaping the dynamics of North Pacific MHWs.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1992

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Barnett, T. P.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns and their potential triggers across western North America

Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis diagnosing the primary factors driving the observed changes in major atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter, including the Pacific North American pattern (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American winter dipole (NAWD), with particular focus on their roles in shaping anomalous weather across North America. Our investigation reveals a consistent influence of the NAWD over seven decades, contrasting with fluctuating impacts from PNA and minor impacts from NAO. In particular, an emergent negative correlation between the NAWD and PNA, signaling a shifted phase of teleconnection patterns, is identified. Such a relationship change is traced to enhanced upper-level ridges across western North America, reflecting a reinforced winter stationary wave. Through attribution analysis, we identify greenhouse gas emissions as a probable driver for the northward drift of the Asia-Pacific jet core, which, aided by orographic lifting over the Alaskan Range, subsequently amplifies the winter stationary wave across western North America. This work emphasizes the pronounced effect of human-induced global warming on the structure and teleconnection of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter, providing vital perspectives on the dynamics of current climate trends.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗