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NASA NTRS1993

High-latitude oceanic variability associated with the 18.6-year nodal tide

Water column temperature variations which indicate that the upper ocean is responding to 18.6-yr tidal forcing are presented. An enhanced high-latitude response to this forcing is predicted by equilibrium tide theory, and it should be most evident at latitudes poleward of about 50 deg. Critical information on regional climate variations might be found in the subsurface waters of the North Pacific and possibly other high-latitude oceans. The 18.6-yr nodal tidal cycle must be considered in circulation models of the ocean and atmosphere that examine time scales of decades or longer. Because the temperature range associated with the cycle is 0.5-1 C, short-term climate and biological populations could be affected.

Royer, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in Climate Changes

The diagram, which attests the El Nino teleconnection observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) in 1997, is an example of the results of our research in air-sea interaction - the core component of our three-part contribution to the Climate Variability Program. We have established an interplay among scientific research, which turns spacebased data into knowledge, a push in instrument technology, which improves observations of climate variability, and an information system, which produces and disseminates new data to support our scientific research. Timothy Liu led the proposal for advanced technology, in response to the NASA Post-2002 Request for Information. The sensor was identified as a possible mission for continuous ocean surface wind measurement at higher spatial resolution, and with the unique capability to measure ocean surface salinity. He is participating in the Instrument Incubator Program to improve the antenna technology, and is initiating a study to integrate the concept on Japanese missions. He and his collaborators have set up a system to produce and disseminate high level (gridded) ocean surface wind/stress data from NSCAT and European missions. The data system is being expanded to produce real-time gridded ocean surface winds from Quikscat, and precipitation and evaporation from the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission. It will form the basis for a spacebased data analysis system which will include momentum, heat and water fluxes. The study on 1997 El Nino teleconnection illustrates our interdisciplinary and multisensor approach to study climate variability. The diagram shows that the collapse of trade wind and the westerly wind anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific led to the equatorial ocean warming. The equatorial wind anomalies are connected to the anomalous cyclonic wind pattern in the northeast Pacific. The anomalous warming along the west coast of the United States is the result of the movement of the pre-existing warm sea surface temperature anomalies with the cyclonic wind anomalies toward the coast. The results led to a new study which identifies decadal ocean variations in the Northeast Pacific. Three studies of oceanic responses to wind forcing caused by the seasonal change of monsoons, the passage of a typhoon, and the 1997 El Nino, were successfully conducted. Besides wind forcing, we continue to examine new techniques for estimating thermal and hydrologic fluxes, through the inverse ocean mixed-layer model, through divergence of atmospheric water transport, and by direct retrieval from radiances observed by microwave radiometers. Greenhouse warming has been linked to water vapor measured by two spaceborne sensors in two studies. In the first study, strong baroclinicity and deep convection were found to transport water vapor to the upper atmosphere and increase greenhouse trapping over the storm tracks of the North Pacific and Atlantic. In another study, the annual cycle of greenhouse warming were related to sea surface temperature (SST) and integrated water vapor, and the latitudinal dependence of the magnitudes and phases of the annual cycles were compared.

Liu, W. Timothy↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1998

Clear-Sky UV-B trends over Northern Midlatitudes derived from TOMS Low-Reflectivity Footprint Measurements

This study investigates the distribution of clear-sky ultraviolet-B (UV-B, wavelengths 290-320 nm) trends in northern midlatitudes using 1979-1991 Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) version 7 low-reflectivity (R<0.2) total ozone footprint measurements. The incorporation of essentially cloud-free ozone data from TOMS provides a direct method for separating transient cloud effects from anthropogenic and other dynamical factors present in UV-B. This study has also included both National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) microwave sounding unit channel 4 (MSU4) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 500 hPa temperature (T500) fields in our trend models to improve UV-Index (UVI) trend statistics and to investigate the effects of interannual changes in UVI caused by synoptic-scale (horizontal wavelengths 4000-8000 km) and planetary-scale (horizontal wavelengths greater than 8000 km) dynamical events. Clear-sky UVI trends in the northern midlatitudes show large increases (exceeding 10 % per decade) and distinct regional variability especially during winter-spring months which can be attributed to topography and dynamical forcing effects. In the UV-important summer-autumn months, these trends are more uniformly distributed and still statistically significant, although smaller at around +2 to +3 % per decade. Specifically, during April largest increases in midlatitude UVI are seen to extend from near the dateline eastward across North America. In June months largest UVI increases occur over the east Asian continent with values around +5 to +6 % per decade. These increases in UVI over both the Pacific and Asian continent regions persist through summer into Autumn. In the the European sector, statistically significant increases in clear-sky UVI are found over central Europe with values around +2 to +3 % per decade and +8 to +9 % per decade during summer and winter-spring months, respectively. Over the nearby Mediterranean region these seasonal trends are around +2 to +3 and +5 to +6 % per decade.

Ziemke, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2001

Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability

In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Recent Rates of Forest Harvest and Conversion in North America

Incorporating ecological disturbance into biogeochemical models is critical for estimating current and future carbon stocks and fluxes. In particular, anthropogenic disturbances, such as forest conversion and wood harvest, strongly affect forest carbon dynamics within North America. This paper summarizes recent (2000.2008) rates of extraction, including both conversion and harvest, derived from national forest inventories for North America (the United States, Canada, and Mexico). During the 2000s, 6.1 million ha/yr were affected by harvest, another 1.0 million ha/yr were converted to other land uses through gross deforestation, and 0.4 million ha/yr were degraded. Thus about 1.0% of North America fs forests experienced some form of anthropogenic disturbance each year. However, due to harvest recovery, afforestation, and reforestation, the total forest area on the continent has been roughly stable during the decade. On average, about 110 m3 of roundwood volume was extracted per hectare harvested across the continent. Patterns of extraction vary among the three countries, with U.S. and Canadian activity dominated by partial and clear ]cut harvest, respectively, and activity in Mexico dominated by conversion (deforestation) for agriculture. Temporal trends in harvest and clearing may be affected by economic variables, technology, and forest policy decisions. While overall rates of extraction appear fairly stable in all three countries since the 1980s, harvest within the United States has shifted toward the southern United States and away from the Pacific Northwest.

Masek, Jeffrey G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Global Time-Variable Gravity and its Geophysical/Climatic Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in 52, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. 52 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before sharply turning back to normal , signifying a large change in global mass distribution whose 52 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the Ocean water distribution, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the extratropical Pacific basins, that may be responsible for this 52 anomaly. Besides the lowest-degree 52, recent updates in the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher than that for 52, some of these series have significant signal that appears to be climatic in origin. For example, there is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Tahiti-Darwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Similar cases demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations. We will present these intriguing results.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds as an Invariant Calibration Target and as a Visible Calibration Technique

Deep convective clouds (DCCs) are ideal visible calibration targets because they are bright nearly isotropic solar reflectors located over the tropics and they can be easily identified using a simple infrared threshold. Because all satellites view DCCs, DCCs provide the opportunity to uniformly monitor the stability of all operational sensors, both historical and present. A collective DCC anisotropically corrected radiance calibration approach is used to construct monthly probability distribution functions (PDFs) to monitor sensor stability. The DCC calibration targets were stable to within 0.5% and 0.3% per decade when the selection criteria were optimized based on Aqua MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer 0.65-micrometer-band radiances. The Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), African, and South American regions were identified as the dominant DCC domains. For the 0.65-micrometer band, the PDF mode statistic is preferable, providing 0.3%regional consistency and 1%temporal uncertainty over land regions. It was found that the DCC within the TWP had the lowest radiometric response and DCC over land did not necessarily have the highest radiometric response. For wavelengths greater than 1 micrometer, the mean statistic is preferred, and land regions provided a regional variability of 0.7%with a temporal uncertainty of 1.1% where the DCC land response was higher than the response over ocean. Unlike stratus and cirrus clouds, the DCC spectra were not affected by water vapor absorption.

Doelling, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Low-Degree Time-Variable Gravity and Geophysical/Climatic Connections

Any large mass transport in the Earth system produces changes in the gravity field. Low harmonic degree components of such variations have been observed by the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) technique, particularly in J2, the Earth's dynamic oblateness. J2 has long been observed to undergo a slight decrease due primarily to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle -- until around 1998, when it switched quite suddenly to an increase trend which continued to 2001 before turning back, signifymg a large, anomalous mass redistribution whose J2 effect overshadows that of the post-glacial rebound over interannual timescales. Intriguing evidences have been found in the extratropical Pacific basins, especially related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and in land hydrology. We will examine the latest results based on ocean altimetry, sea-surface temperature, and ocean and hydrology model outputs. Besides 52, the SLR-derived time series of the Earth's low-degree gravity components also show shorter wavelength zonal and other longitudinal signals. While the formal uncertainty of these terms is significantly higher, some of these series have significant signal that show correlation to various climatic signals. For example, the SLR-observed S2,l tesseral (and 53 zonal) coefficients compare favorably with those computed from the NCEP atmospheric pressure field. There is a significant correlation of the sectoral S2,2 with the Southern Oscillation Index signifying the influence of El NinoLa Nina, but preceding SO1 by about 1 year. Cases such as these demonstrate the utility of assessing the mass component of climate variations.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Spatial Patterns of Variability in Antarctic Surface Temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation

The 17-year (1982-1998) trend in surface temperature shows a general cooling over the Antarctic continent, warming of the sea ice zone, with moderate changes over the oceans. Warming of the peripheral seas is associated with negative trends in the regional sea ice extent. Effects of the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode (SAM) and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation (SO) on surface temperature are quantified through regression analysis. Positive polarities of the SAM are associated with cold anomalies over most of Antarctica, with the most notable exception of the Antarctic Peninsula. Positive temperature anomalies and ice edge retreat in the Pacific sector are associated with El Nino episodes. Over the past two decades, the drift towards high polarity in the SAM and negative polarity in the SO indices couple to produce a spatial pattern with warmer temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula and peripheral seas, and cooler temperatures over much of East Antarctica.

Kwok, Ron↗
NASA NTRS2000

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate

The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?

Yang, Song↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessment of Precipitation Anomalies in California Using TRMM and MERRA Data

After more than a decade of moderate seasonal deviations from the expected climate, it is easy to forget that California is actually prone to instabilities in precipitation patterns that occur on various scales. Using modern satellite and reanalysis data we reassess certain aspects of the precipitation climate in California from the past three decades. California has a well-pronounced rain season that peaks in December-February. However, the 95% confidence interval around the climatological precipitation during these months imply that deviations on the order of 60% of the expected amounts are very likely during the most important period of the rain season. While these positive and negative anomalies alternate almost every year and tend to cancel each other, severe multi-year declines of precipitation in California seem to appear on decadal scales. The 1986-1994 decline of precipitation was similar to the current one that started in 2011, and is apparent in the reanalysis data. In terms of accumulated deficits of precipitation, that episode was no less severe than the current one. While El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO) is frequently cited as the natural forcing expected to bring a relief, our assessment is that ENSO has been driving at best only 6% of precipitation variability in California in the past three decades. It means El Niño needs to be stronger and longer, in order to have a higher likelihood of a positive impact, and the current one does not match these criteria. Using fractional risk analysis of precipitation populations during normal and dry periods, we show that the likelihood of losing the most intensive precipitation events drastically increases during the multi-year drying events. Since storms delivering up to 50% of precipitation in California are driven by atmospheric rivers making landfall, thus the importance of their suppression and blockage by persistent ridges of atmospheric pressure in the northeast Pacific.

Savtchenko, Andrey K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Assessment of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Predictability in CMIP5 Decadal Hindcasts

This paper examines the ability of coupled global climate models to predict decadal variability of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. We analyze decadal hindcasts/predictions of 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Decadal hindcasts exhibit a large multimodel spread in the simulated sea ice extent, with some models deviating significantly from the observations as the predicted ice extent quickly drifts away from the initial constraint. The anomaly correlation analysis between the decadal hindcast and observed sea ice suggests that in the Arctic, for most models, the areas showing significant predictive skill become broader associated with increasing lead times. This area expansion is largely because nearly all the models are capable of predicting the observed decreasing Arctic sea ice cover. Sea ice extent in the North Pacific has better predictive skill than that in the North Atlantic (particularly at a lead time of 3-7 years), but there is a reemerging predictive skill in the North Atlantic at a lead time of 6-8 years. In contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice decadal hindcasts do not show broad predictive skill at any timescales, and there is no obvious improvement linking the areal extent of significant predictive skill to lead time increase. This might be because nearly all the models predict a retreating Antarctic sea ice cover, opposite to the observations. For the Arctic, the predictive skill of the multi-model ensemble mean outperforms most models and the persistence prediction at longer timescales, which is not the case for the Antarctic. Overall, for the Arctic, initialized decadal hindcasts show improved predictive skill compared to uninitialized simulations, although this improvement is not present in the Antarctic.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2008

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Helfand, H. Mark↗
NASA NTRS1997

Climate Variability in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas

Satellite data reveal a 20% decline in sea ice extent in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas in the two decades following 1973. This change is negatively correlated with surface air temperatures on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, which have increased -0.5 C / decade- since the mid-1940s, The recession was strongest during summer, when monthly average minima in 1991-92 removed much of the incipient multiyear ice over the continental shelf. This would have lowered the regional-mean ice thickness, impacting snow ice formation, brine production, and vertical heat flux. The northern ice edge contracted by 1 deg of latitude in all seasons from 1973-79 to 1987-93, returning toward mean conditions in 1993-95. The decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length, superimposed on high interannual variability. A review of atmospheric forcing shows winds consistent with mean and extreme ice extents, and suggests links to larger-scale circulation changes in the South Pacific. Historical ocean measurements are sparse in this sector, but mixed-layer depths and upper pycnoclines beneath the sea ice resemble those in the Weddell Sea. Weaker surface currents or changes in the upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water on the continental shelf could have contributed to the anomaly persistence.

Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Long-range Transport of Asian Dust Storms: A Satellite/Surface Perspective on Societal and Scientific Influence

Among the many components contributing to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative forcing effect on the weather/climate system. As much as one-third to half of the global dust emissions, estimated about 800 Tg, are introduced annually into Earth's atmosphere from various deserts in China. Asian dust storm outbreaks are believed to have persisted for hundreds and thousands years over the vast territory of north and northwest China, but not until recent decades that many studies reveal the compelling evidence in recognizing the importance of these eolian dust particles for forming Chinese Loess Plateau and for biogeochemical cycling in the North Pacific Ocean to as far as in the Greenland ice-sheets through long-range transport. The Asian dust and air pollution aerosols can be detected by its colored appearance on current Earth observing satellites and its evolution monitored by satellite and surface network. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm, called Deep Blue, to retrieve aerosol properties, particularly but not limited to, over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Recently, many field campaigns were designed and executed to study the compelling variability in spatial and temporal scale of both pollution-derived and naturally occurring aerosols, which often exist in high concentrations over eastern Asia and along the rim of the western Pacific. We will provide an overview of the outbreak of Asian dust storms, near source/sink and their evolution along transport pathway, from space and surface observations. The climatic effects and societal impacts of the Asian dusts will be addressed in depth. (to be presented in the International Workshop on Semi-Arid Land Surface-

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2009

Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗