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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Inference in infinite-dimensional inverse problems - Discretization and duality

Many techniques for solving inverse problems involve approximating the unknown model, a function, by a finite-dimensional 'discretization' or parametric representation. The uncertainty in the computed solution is sometimes taken to be the uncertainty within the parametrization; this can result in unwarranted confidence. The theory of conjugate duality can overcome the limitations of discretization within the 'strict bounds' formalism, a technique for constructing confidence intervals for functionals of the unknown model incorporating certain types of prior information. The usual computational approach to strict bounds approximates the 'primal' problem in a way that the resulting confidence intervals are at most long enough to have the nominal coverage probability. There is another approach based on 'dual' optimization problems that gives confidence intervals with at least the nominal coverage probability. The pair of intervals derived by the two approaches bracket a correct confidence interval. The theory is illustrated with gravimetric, seismic, geomagnetic, and helioseismic problems and a numerical example in seismology.

Stark, Philip B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linear two-pool models are insufficient to infer soil organic matter decomposition temperature sensitivity from incubations

Abstract Terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedbacks depend strongly on how soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition responds to temperature. This dependency is often represented in land models by the parameter Q 10 , which quantifies the relative increase of microbial soil respiration per 10 °C temperature increase. Many studies have conducted paired laboratory soil incubations and inferred “active” and “slow” pool Q 10 values by fitting linear two-pool models to measured respiration time series. Using a recently published incubation study (Qin et al. in Sci Adv 5(7):eaau1218, 2019) as an example, here we first show that the very high parametric equifinality of the linear two-pool models may render such incubation-based Q 10 estimates unreliable. In particular, we show that, accompanied by the uncertain initial active pool size, the slow pool Q 10 can span a very wide range, including values as high as 100, although all parameter combinations are producing almost equally good model fit with respect to the observations. This result is robust whether or not interactions between the active and slow pools are considered (typically these interactions are not considered when interpreting incubation data, but are part of the predictive soil carbon models). This very large parametric equifinality in the context of interpreting incubation data is consistent with the poor temporal extrapolation capability of linear multi-pool models identified in recent studies. Next, using a microbe-explicit SOM model (RESOM), we show that the inferred two pools and their associated parameters (e.g., Q 10 ) could be artificial constructs and are therefore unreliable concepts for integration into predictive models. We finally discuss uncertainties in applying linear two-pool (or more generally multiple-pool) models to estimate SOM decomposition parameters such as temperature sensitivities from laboratory incubations. We also propose new observations and model structures that could enable better process understanding and more robust predictive capabilities of soil carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable stochastic halo occupation distribution

ABSTRACT In this work, we demonstrate how differentiable stochastic sampling techniques developed in the context of deep reinforcement learning can be used to perform efficient parameter inference over stochastic, simulation-based, forward models. As a particular example, we focus on the problem of estimating parameters of halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that are used to connect galaxies with their dark matter haloes. Using a combination of continuous relaxation and gradient re-parametrization techniques, we can obtain well-defined gradients with respect to HOD parameters through discrete galaxy catalogue realizations. Having access to these gradients allows us to leverage efficient sampling schemes, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and greatly speed up parameter inference. We demonstrate our technique on a mock galaxy catalogue generated from the Bolshoi simulation using a standard HOD model and find near-identical posteriors as standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with an increase of ∼8× in convergence efficiency. Our differentiable HOD model also has broad applications in full forward model approaches to cosmic structure and cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Astrophysical data analysis with information field theory

Non-parametric imaging and data analysis in astrophysics and cosmology can be addressed by information field theory (IFT), a means of Bayesian, data based inference on spatially distributed signal fields. IFT is a statistical field theory, which permits the construction of optimal signal recovery algorithms. It exploits spatial correlations of the signal fields even for nonlinear and non-Gaussian signal inference problems. The alleviation of a perception threshold for recovering signals of unknown correlation structure by using IFT will be discussed in particular as well as a novel improvement on instrumental self-calibration schemes. IFT can be applied to many areas. Here, applications in in cosmology (cosmic microwave background, large-scale structure) and astrophysics (galactic magnetism, radio interferometry) are presented.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

The hyperplane of early-type galaxies: using stellar population properties to increase the precision and accuracy of the fundamental plane as a distance indicator

ABSTRACT We use deep spectroscopy from the SAMI (Sydney-AAO Multi-object Integral) Galaxy Survey to explore the precision of the fundamental plane (FP) of early-type galaxies as a distance indicator for future single-fibre spectroscopy surveys. We study the optimal trade-off between sample size and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and investigate which additional observables can be used to construct hyperplanes with smaller intrinsic scatter than the FP. We add increasing levels of random noise (parametrized as effective exposure time) to the SAMI spectra to study the effect of increasing measurement uncertainties on the FP- and hyperplane-inferred distances. We find that, using direct-fit methods, the values of the FP and hyperplane best-fitting coefficients depend on the spectral SNR, and reach asymptotic values for a mean $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =40\, \mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$. As additional variables for the FP we consider three stellar-population observables: light-weighted age, stellar mass-to-light ratio, and a novel combination of Lick indices ($I_\mathrm{age}$). For an $\langle \mathrm{ SNR} \rangle =45~\mathrm{\mathring{\rm A}}^{-1}$ (equivalent to 1-h exposure on a 4-m telescope), all three hyperplanes outperform the FP as distance indicators. Being an empirical spectral index, $I_\mathrm{age}$ avoids the model-dependent uncertainties and bias underlying age and mass-to-light ratio measurements, yet yields a 10 per cent reduction of the median distance uncertainty compared to the FP. We also find that, as a by-product, the $I_\mathrm{age}$ hyperplane removes most of the reported environment bias of the FP. After accounting for the different SNR, these conclusions also apply to a 50 times larger sample from SDSS-III (Sloan Digital Sky Survey). However, in this case, only $\mathrm{ age}$ removes the environment bias.

D’Eugenio, Francesco (ORCID:0000000323888172)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Gaussian-process generative model for the QCD equation of state

We develop a generative model for the nuclear matter equation of state at zero net baryon density using the Gaussian process regression method. We impose first-principles theoretical constraints from lattice quantum chromodynamics and hadron resonance gas at high- and low-temperature regions, respectively. By allowing the trained Gaussian process regression model to vary freely near the phase transition region, we generate random smooth crossover equations of state with different speeds of sound that do not rely on specific parametrizations. Here, we explore a collection of experimental observable dependencies on the generated equations of state, which paves the groundwork for future Bayesian inference studies to use experimental measurements from relativistic heavy-ion collisions to constrain the nuclear matter equation of state.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mind the gap: the discrepancy between simulation and reality drives interpretations of the Galactic Center Excess

The Galactic Center Excess (GCE) in GeV gamma rays has been debated for over a decade, with the possibility that it might be due to dark matter annihilation or undetected point sources such as millisecond pulsars (MSPs). This study investigates how the gamma-ray emission model (γEM) used in Galactic center analyses affects the interpretation of the GCE's nature. To address this issue, we construct an ultra-fast and powerful inference pipeline based on convolutional Deep Ensemble Networks. We explore the two main competing hypotheses for the GCE using a set of γEMs with increasing parametric freedom. We calculate the fractional contribution (f src ) of a dim population of MSPs to the total luminosity of the GCE and analyze its dependence on the complexity of the γEM. For the simplest γEM, we obtain fsrc = 0.10 ± 0.07, while the most complex model yields f src = 0.79 ± 0.24. In conclusion, we find that the statement about the nature of the GCE (dark matter or not) strongly depends on the assumed γEM. The quoted results for f src do not account for the additional uncertainty arising from the fact that the observed gamma-ray sky is out-of-distribution concerning the investigated γEM iterations. We quantify the reality gap between our γEMs using deep-learning-based One-Class Deep Support Vector Data Description networks, revealing that all employed γEMs have gaps to reality. Finally, our study casts doubt on the validity of previous conclusions regarding the GCE and dark matter, and underscores the urgent need to account for the reality gap and consider previously overlooked "out of domain" uncertainties in future interpretations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2008

Aerothermodynamic Testing of Protuberances and Penetrations on the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle Heat Shield in the NASA Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel

An experimental wind tunnel program is being conducted in support of an Agency wide effort to develop a replacement for the Space Shuttle and to support the NASA s long-term objective of returning to the moon and then on to Mars. This paper documents experimental measurements made on several scaled ceramic heat transfer models of the proposed Crew Exploration Vehicle. Global heat transfer images and heat transfer distributions obtained using phosphor thermography were used to infer interference heating on the Crew Exploration Vehicle Cycle 1 heat shield from local protuberances and penetrations for both laminar and turbulent heating conditions. Test parametrics included free stream Reynolds numbers of 1.0x10(exp 6)/ft to 7.25x10(exp 6)/ft in Mach 6 air at a fixed angle-of-attack. Single arrays of discrete boundary layer trips were used to trip the boundary layer approaching the protuberances/penetrations to a turbulent state. Also, the effects of three compression pad diameters, two radial locations of compression pad/tension tie location, compression pad geometry, and rotational position of compression pad/tension tie were examined. The experimental data highlighted in this paper are to be used to validate CFD tools that will be used to generate the flight aerothermodynamic database. Heat transfer measurements will also assist in the determination of the most appropriate engineering methods that will be used to assess local flight environments associated with protuberances/penetrations of the CEV thermal protection system.

Liechty, Derek S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A composite likelihood approach for inference under photometric redshift uncertainty

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift information from the galaxy photometry with constraints from two-point functions, utilizing cross-correlations with spatially overlapping spectroscopic samples, and illustrate the approach on CosmoDC2 simulations. Our likelihood framework is designed to integrate directly into a typical large-scale structure and weak lensing analysis based on two-point functions. We discuss efficient and accurate inference techniques that allow us to scale the method to the large samples of galaxies to be expected in LSST. We consider statistical challenges like the parametrization of redshift systematics, discuss and evaluate techniques to regularize the sample redshift distributions, and investigate techniques that can help to detect and calibrate sources of systematic error using posterior predictive checks. We evaluate and forecast photometric redshift performance using data from the CosmoDC2 simulations, within which we mimic a DESI-like spectroscopic calibration sample for cross-correlations. Using a combination of spatial cross-correlations and photometry, we show that we can provide calibration of the mean of the sample redshift distribution to an accuracy of at least 0.002(1 + z), consistent with the LSST-Y1 science requirements for weak lensing and large-scale structure probes.

(cosmology:) large-scale structure of Universe↗
DOE OSTI2016

ALMA observations of the debris disk of solar analog τ Ceti

We present 1.3 mm observations of the Sun-like star τ Ceti with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array that probe angular scales of ∼1{sup ′′} (4 au). This first interferometric image of the τ Ceti system, which hosts both a debris disk and a possible multiplanet system, shows emission from a nearly face-on belt of cold dust with a position angle of 90{sup ∘} surrounding an unresolved central source at the stellar position. To characterize this emission structure, we fit parametric models to the millimeter visibilities. The resulting best-fit model yields an inner belt edge of 6.2{sub −4.6}{sup +9.8} au, consistent with inferences from lower resolution, far-infrared Herschel observations. While the limited data at sufficiently short baselines preclude us from placing stronger constraints on the belt properties and its relation to the proposed five planet system, the observations do provide a strong lower limit on the fractional width of the belt, ΔR/R>0.75 with 99% confidence. This fractional width is more similar to broad disks such as HD 107146 than narrow belts such as the Kuiper Belt and Fomalhaut. The unresolved central source has a higher flux density than the predicted flux of the stellar photosphere at 1.3 mm. Given previous measurements of an excess by a factor of ∼2 at 8.7 mm, this emission is likely due to a hot stellar chromosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Beam-target double-spin asymmetry in quasielastic electron scattering off the deuteron with CLAS

The deuteron plays a pivotal role in nuclear and hadronic physics, as both the simplest bound multinucleon system and as an effective neutron target. Quasielastic electron scattering on the deuteron is a benchmark reaction to test our understanding of deuteron structure and the properties and interactions of the two nucleons bound in the deuteron. The experimental data presented here can be used to test state-of-the-art models of the deuteron and the two-nucleon interaction in the final state after two-body breakup of the deuteron. Focusing on polarization degrees of freedom, we gain information on spin-momentum correlations in the deuteron ground state (due to the D-state admixture) and on the limits of the impulse approximation (IA) picture as it applies to measurements of spin-dependent observables like spin structure functions for bound nucleons. Information on this reaction can also be used to reduce systematic uncertainties on the determination of neutron form factors or deuteron polarization through quasielastic polarized electron scattering. Furthermore, we measured the beam-target double-spin asymmetry (A || ) for quasielastic electron scattering off the deuteron at several beam energies (1.6–1.7, 2.5, 4.2, and 5.6–5.8GeV), using the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer (CLAS) at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility. The deuterons were polarized along (or opposite to) the beam direction. The double-spin asymmetries were measured as a function of photon virtuality Q 2 (0.13–3.17(GeV/c) 2 ), missing momentum (p m =0.0–0.5GeV/c), and the angle between the (inferred) spectator neutron and the momentum transfer direction (θ nq ). We compare our results with a recent model that includes final-state interactions (FSI) using a complete parametrization of nucleon-nucleon scattering, as well as a simplified model using the plane wave impulse approximation (PWIA). We find overall good agreement with both the PWIA and FSI expectations at low to medium missing momenta (p m ≤0.25GeV/c), including the change of the asymmetry due to the contribution of the deuteron D state at higher momenta. At the highest missing momenta, our data clearly agree better with the calculations including FSI. Final-state interactions seem to play a lesser role for polarization observables in deuteron two-body electrodisintegration than for absolute cross sections. Our data, while limited in statistical power, indicate that PWIA models work reasonably well to understand the asymmetries at lower missing momenta. In turn, this information can be used to extract the product of beam and target polarization (P b P t ) from quasielastic electron-deuteron scattering, which is useful for measurements of spin observables in electron-neutron inelastic scattering. But, at the highest missing (neutron) momenta, FSI effects become important and must be accounted for.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Seawater Dielectric Constant At L-Band: How Consistent Are New Parametrisations Inferred from Smos and Laboratory Measurements?

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the modelling of the dielectric constant (ε). Two new ε parametrizations have recently been developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements and on the other hand on new laboratory measurements. These two approaches are fully independent. These new ε parametrizations are compared with each other and with the ε models previously in use in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. The two new ε parametrizations are found to be in closer agreement than with earlier parametrizations for most common ocean conditions. We will further study to which extent the recent SMOS CCI+SSS v3 reprocessing confirms the above results and could help resolve remaining inconsistencies.

SMOS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Describing hadronization via histories and observables for Monte-Carlo event reweighting

We introduce a novel method for extracting a fragmentation model directly from experimental data without requiring an explicit parametric form, called Histories and Observables for Monte-Carlo Event Reweighting (HOMER), consisting of three steps: the training of a classifier between simulation and data, the inference of single fragmentation weights, and the calculation of the weight for the full hadronization chain. We illustrate the use of HOMER on a simplified hadronization problem, a q\bar{q} q q ‾ string fragmenting into pions, and extract a modified Lund string fragmentation function f(z) f ( z ) . We then demonstrate the use of HOMER on three types of experimental data: (i) binned distributions of high-level observables, (ii) unbinned event-by-event distributions of these observables, and (iii) full particle cloud information. After demonstrating that f(z) f ( z ) can be extracted from data (the inverse of hadronization), we also show that, at least in this limited setup, the fidelity of the extracted f(z) f ( z ) suffers only limited loss when moving from (i) to (ii) to (iii). Public code is available at https://gitlab.com/uchep/mlhad.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation of State Optimization and Uncertainty Quantization: Implementation in the LANL EOS Production Code OpenSesame

We detail the approaches of particle swarm optimization and Bayesian inference through Markov chain Monte Carlo for equation of state development. This work includes formulation of the modeling for the equation of state, numeric optimization of the parametric models via particle swarm optimization, and generation of probability distributions of equations of state from Markov chain Monte Carlo.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2015

Videopanorama Frame Rate Requirements Derived from Visual Discrimination of Deceleration During Simulated Aircraft Landing

In order to determine the required visual frame rate (FR) for minimizing prediction errors with out-the-window video displays at remote/virtual airport towers, thirteen active air traffic controllers viewed high dynamic fidelity simulations of landing aircraft and decided whether aircraft would stop as if to be able to make a turnoff or whether a runway excursion would be expected. The viewing conditions and simulation dynamics replicated visual rates and environments of transport aircraft landing at small commercial airports. The required frame rate was estimated using Bayes inference on prediction errors by linear FRextrapolation of event probabilities conditional on predictions (stop, no-stop). Furthermore estimates were obtained from exponential model fits to the parametric and non-parametric perceptual discriminabilities d' and A (average area under ROC-curves) as dependent on FR. Decision errors are biased towards preference of overshoot and appear due to illusionary increase in speed at low frames rates. Both Bayes and A - extrapolations yield a framerate requirement of 35 < FRmin < 40 Hz. When comparing with published results [12] on shooter game scores the model based d'(FR)-extrapolation exhibits the best agreement and indicates even higher FRmin > 40 Hz for minimizing decision errors. Definitive recommendations require further experiments with FR > 30 Hz.

deceleration perception↗