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DOE OSTI2026

Parametric amplification of spin-motion coupling in three-dimensional trapped-ion crystals

Three-dimensional (3D) crystals offer a route to scaling up trapped-ion systems for quantum sensing and quantum simulation applications; however, engineering coherent spin-motion couplings and effective spin-spin interactions in large crystals poses technical challenges associated with decoherence and prolonged timescales to generate appreciable entanglement. Here, we explore the possibility of speeding up these interactions in 3D crystals via parametric amplification. For this purpose, we derive a general Hamiltonian for the parametric amplification of spin-motion coupling that is broadly applicable to normal modes with motion transverse to or along the spatial extent of the crystal. Unlike in lower-dimensional crystals, we find that the ability to faithfully (uniformly) amplify the spin-spin interactions in 3D crystals depends on the physical implementation of the spin-motion coupling. We consider the light-shift gate, and the so-called phase-insensitive and phase-sensitive Mølmer-Sørensen (MS) gates, and we find that only the phase-sensitive MS gate can be faithfully amplified in general 3D crystals. We discuss a situation where nonuniform amplification can be advantageous. We also reconsider the effect of counter-rotating terms on parametric amplification and find that they are not as detrimental as previous studies suggest.

Optical parametric oscillators & amplifiers↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linear two-pool models are insufficient to infer soil organic matter decomposition temperature sensitivity from incubations

Abstract Terrestrial carbon (C)-climate feedbacks depend strongly on how soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition responds to temperature. This dependency is often represented in land models by the parameter Q 10 , which quantifies the relative increase of microbial soil respiration per 10 °C temperature increase. Many studies have conducted paired laboratory soil incubations and inferred “active” and “slow” pool Q 10 values by fitting linear two-pool models to measured respiration time series. Using a recently published incubation study (Qin et al. in Sci Adv 5(7):eaau1218, 2019) as an example, here we first show that the very high parametric equifinality of the linear two-pool models may render such incubation-based Q 10 estimates unreliable. In particular, we show that, accompanied by the uncertain initial active pool size, the slow pool Q 10 can span a very wide range, including values as high as 100, although all parameter combinations are producing almost equally good model fit with respect to the observations. This result is robust whether or not interactions between the active and slow pools are considered (typically these interactions are not considered when interpreting incubation data, but are part of the predictive soil carbon models). This very large parametric equifinality in the context of interpreting incubation data is consistent with the poor temporal extrapolation capability of linear multi-pool models identified in recent studies. Next, using a microbe-explicit SOM model (RESOM), we show that the inferred two pools and their associated parameters (e.g., Q 10 ) could be artificial constructs and are therefore unreliable concepts for integration into predictive models. We finally discuss uncertainties in applying linear two-pool (or more generally multiple-pool) models to estimate SOM decomposition parameters such as temperature sensitivities from laboratory incubations. We also propose new observations and model structures that could enable better process understanding and more robust predictive capabilities of soil carbon dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial analysis of freight accessibility and job attraction: The role of interstate ramps, airports, ports, and rail

The number of jobs within an industry is significantly influenced by geographical location, with transportation infrastructure playing a key role. While previous research has largely focused on how access to jobs affects employment, less attention has been given to how transportation infrastructure impacts business operations and job attraction. Here, this study addresses this gap by examining how the ease of transporting products to key transportation facilities affects job numbers in freight-intensive industries. Using job data from the Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics dataset at the Census Tract level, we applied a non-parametric model to assess the impact of proximity to interstate ramps, rail intermodals, ports, and airports. Our analysis revealed that closer transportation infrastructure generally has a greater impact on employment. Specifically, interstate ramps are crucial for attracting jobs, particularly in rural areas, while airport proximity is essential for industries dealing with high-value, time-sensitive goods, as seen notably in Massachusetts. The importance of transportation facilities varies considerably across states and industries. The findings and method in this study can be used by transportation agencies for freight planning.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of subsurface transport processes of delayed gas signatures applicable to underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive gas signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) result from gas-migration processes occurring in the subsurface. The processes considered in this study either drive or retard upward migration of gases from the detonation cavity. The relative importance of these processes is evaluated by simulating subsurface transport in a dual-permeability medium for the multi-tracer Noble Gas Migration Experiment (NGME) originally intended to study some aspects of transport from a UNE. For this experiment, relevant driving processes include weak two-phase convection driven by the geothermal gradient, over pressuring of the detonation cavity, and barometric pumping while gas sorption, dissolution, radioactive decay, and usually diffusion represent retarding processes. From deterministic simulations we found that over-pressuring of the post-detonation chimney coupled with barometric pumping produced a synergistic effect amplifying the tracer-gas reaching the surface. Bounding simulations indicated that the sorption and dissolution of gases, tending to retard transport, were much smaller than anticipated by earlier laboratory studies. The NGME observations themselves show that differences in gas diffusivity have a larger effect on influencing upward transport than do the combined effects of tracer-gas sorption and dissolution, which is consistent with a Sobol’ sensitivity analysis. Both deterministic simulations and those considering parametric uncertainties of transport-related properties predict that the excess in concentration of SF 6 compared to 127 Xe as might be captured in small volumetric samples should be much smaller than the order-of-magnitude contrast found in the large-volume gas samples taken at the site. While extraction of large-volume subsurface gas samples is shown to be capable of distorting in situ gas compositions, the highly variable injection rate of SF 6 into the detonation cavity relative to that of 127 Xe at the start of the field experiment is the most likely explanation for the large difference in observed concentrations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Parametric and Robustness Studies of Qudit Mediated Quantum State Transfer and Entanglement Creation

The large number of available states participating in quantum state evolution in a system of qudits translates into better thermal resilience, for quantum state transfer (QST) and distributed entangled states, than a system of 2-level qubits. In this report we study the dependence of fidelities of the above processes on various system parameters. Sensitivity to modes of dissipation and errors is also studied. An alternative and potentially more efficient scheme to create Bell states is used.

Chao, Yu-Chiu [Fermilab] (ORCID:000900039584159X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity analysis of design parameters in RowWise borehole layout for ground heat exchangers

Ground source heat pump systems offer a promising pathway toward energy-efficient building heating and cooling. The performance and cost-effectiveness of these systems heavily depend on the design of the ground heat exchanger (GHE), particularly the spatial placement of boreholes used in large commercial buildings. Among various borefield layout strategies, the RowWise approach generates and optimizes borehole configurations within irregular polygonal land boundaries, providing land-use efficiency and installation flexibility. While multiple geometric design parameters constrain the RowWise layout, their influence on the system thermal performance and total drilling requirements remains unclear. Thus, this study presents a sensitivity analysis of key design parameters influencing the RowWise layout of vertical borehole GHEs, including the perimeter spacing ratio, borehole spacing, borehole field rotation angle, and borehole length. GHEDesigner and Ray Tune are employed to generate and assess different RowWise configurations. A series of parametric simulations was conducted to quantify the impact of each parameter on geometric distribution, economic cost, and computational speed. The results provide critical insights into the sensitivity and relative importance of different design parameters of RowWise method, offering practical guidance for designers aiming to optimize GHE layouts by balancing thermal efficiency, land constraints, and economic feasibility.

Xu, Dikai [Purdue University]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Analysis of a Polyphase Wireless Power Transfer System for EV Charging Applications

Extreme fast charging is an emerging technology targeting to significantly decrease charging times of electric vehicles to 10–20 minutes, similar to an interstate gas refueling practice. High-power wireless power transfer (WPT) systems with polyphase electromagnetic couplers can be an attractive solution for these applications due to the very high surface power density of polyphase coils with reduced ripple current characteristics on both the primary and secondary sides that result in more compact designs with reduced dc bus bar capacitor requirements. In addition, WPT systems offer automated charging process, which can be an enabling technology for connected and automated vehicles, with high-efficiency, convenience, safety, and flexibility. This study presents a matrix representation of a mathematical model for a three-phase WPT system with series-series connected three-phase resonant compensation networks. Nonzero interphase mutual inductances between the same side phase windings are considered for tuning to obtain a circuit model for parametric sensitivity. Simulation and experimental results presented for a 50-kW experimental prototype to demonstrate the operation of the polyphase WPT system.

Zeng, Rong↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Method for Shape Optimization for a Gas Turbine Fuel Injector Design Using Metal-Additive Manufacturing

Adjoint shape optimization has enabled physics-based optimal designs for aerodynamic surfaces. Additive manufacturing (AM) makes it possible to manufacture complex shapes. However, there has been a gap between optimal and manufacturable surfaces due to the inherent limitations of commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes to implement geometric constraints during adjoint computation. In such cases, the design sensitivities are exported and used to perform constrained shape modifications using parametric information stored in computer aided design (CAD) files to satisfy manufacturability constraints. However, modifying the design using adjoint methods in CFD solvers and performing constrained shape modification in CAD can lead to inconsistencies due to different shape parameterization schemes. This paper describes a method to enable the simultaneous optimization of the fluid domain and impose AM manufacturability constraints, resolving one of the key issues of geometry definition for isogeometric analysis. Similar to a grid convergence study, the proposed method verifies the consistencies between shape parameterization techniques present within commercial CAD and CFD software during mesh movement as a part of the adjoint shape optimization routine. By identifying the appropriate parameters essential to a shape optimization study, the error metric between the different parameterization techniques converges to demonstrate sufficient consistencies for justifiable exchange of data between CAD and CFD. For the identified shape optimization parameters, the error metric to measure the deviation between the two parameterization schemes lies within the AM laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) process tolerance. Additionally, comparison for subsequent objective function calculations between iterations of the optimization loop showed acceptable differences within 1% variation between the modified geometries obtained using the two parameterization schemes. This method provides justification for the use of multiphysics guided adjoint design sensitivities computed in CFD software to perform shape modifications in CAD to incorporate AM manufacturability constraints during the shape optimization loop such that optimal designs are also additively manufacturable.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Probabilistic Model-Based Diagnostic Framework for Nuclear Engineering Systems

A fault diagnostic framework was investigated in this study for applications in thermal–hydraulic systems of nuclear power plants. The proposed framework consists of quantitative model-based diagnosis, statistical change detection and probabilistic reasoning. The use of physics-based diagnostic models provides high detection sensitivity and allows noise and measurement uncertainty to be incorporated robustly. Performance-related parametric models for each component are constructed based on first principles. Numerical model residuals are generated using the concept of analytical redundancy. Statistical change detection methods are employed to detect non-zero residuals in the presence of uncertainty. The diagnosis task is performed using Bayesian inference to detect and localize possible faults. Application to a single-phase heat exchanger for demonstration showed that the proposed probabilistic framework can provide improved results in comparison with traditional approaches while remaining less sensitive to false alarms in the presence of measurement and modeling uncertainty.

Bayesian network↗

DOE OSTI2020

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The intrinsic X-ray luminosity distribution of an optically selected SDSS quasar population

ABSTRACT In active galactic nuclei, the relationship between UV and X-ray luminosity is well studied (often characterised by αox) but often with heterogeneous samples. We have parametrized the intrinsic distribution of X-ray luminosity, LX, for the optically selected sample of SDSS quasars in the Stripe 82 and XXL fields across redshifts 0.5–3.5. We make use of the available XMM observations and a custom pipeline to produce Bayesian sensitivity curves that are used to derive the intrinsic X-ray distribution in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We find that the X-ray luminosity distribution is well described by a Gaussian function in log10 LX space with a mean that is dependent on the monochromatic 2500 Å UV luminosity, L2500. We also observe some redshift dependence of the distribution. The mean of the LX distribution increases with redshift while the width decreases. This weak but significant redshift dependence leads to L2500–LX and L2500–αox relations that evolve with redshift, and we produce a redshift- and L2500-dependent αox equation. Neither black hole mass nor Eddington ratio appear to be potential drivers of the redshift evolution.

Rankine, Amy L. (ORCID:0000000220911966)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Experimental validation of simplified radionuclide transport bubble scrubbing code in sodium coolant pool

Solid radionuclides released following fuel pin failure may become entrained in gaseous fission products and be rapidly transported through the coolant pool to the cover gas region. Sensitivity studies on radionuclide transport have identified this potential pathway as one of both high concern and high uncertainty. The simplified radionuclide transport scrubbing code utilizes classical aerosol scrubbing mechanisms to model this phenomenon and predict aerosol masses reaching the cover gas region. This paper serves to validate this code in a sodium environment while conducting a parametric study to analyze the effects of aerosol size, bubble size, pool temperature, pool depth, aerosol density, and aerosol concentration. Through a series of experimental tests, it was determined that aerosol sizes ranging from 0.001 to 1.0 µm are of primary concern as aerosols in this range have a ratio of aerosol mass entering the sodium pool from the fuel pin to aerosol mass exiting the sodium pool to the cover gas region of less than 10. Further, the experimental results were found to match the trends found in the scrubbing model closely, but significantly more scrubbing was seen experimentally. Decreasing bubble size and increasing pool depth and aerosol density were all found to increase scrubbing both experimentally and theoretically. Pool temperature was found to have a negligible effect on scrubbing amounts; however, this was largely due to a subsequent increase in bubble size corresponding to increasing temperatures which offset the increase in scrubbing due to increased temperature. Varying aerosol concentration was found to have no effect on scrubbing ratios. A final series of tests was conducted for a more prototypic fuel pin failure with a heterogenous bubble swarm. From these tests, it was found that the experimental scrubbing quantities were larger than for the single bubble case. Overall, it was found that the simplified bubble transport scrubbing code accurately models the trends of the bubble scrubbing but provides a conservative estimate of scrubbing quantities. Model limitations fail to model the complex phenomena present for fission product scrubbing via bubble transport, but match trends seen experimentally.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal load attachment of a deeply embedded ring anchor in clay

A Deeply Embedded Ring Anchor (DERA) system has been developed as a cost-effective solution for mooring arrays of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) to the seabed. The DERA boasts several key features, including its versatility in various soil types, compact size, compatibility with diverse mooring systems, multi-line potential, and robust performance even under unintentional loading conditions. While prior preliminary studies have provided valuable insights into how the DERA can enhance cost-effectiveness by offering a high load capacity, these studies have predominantly focused on optimizing anchor performance under translational horizontal and vertical loading. However, to design the DERA optimally, we must also consider its ability to handle inclined loading conditions in addition to lateral and axial loadings. Due to its shorter length compared to a conventional caisson, the DERA has less resistance to moments, making it more sensitive to horizontal load capacity and the optimal load attachment depth concerning load angle. For this reason, our study introduces an analytical approach to evaluate the effects of inclined loading on anchor performance, utilizing the previously validated upper bound plastic limit analysis (PLA) method. In investigating the optimal load attachment of the DERA, this paper conducts a parametric study to analyze how factors such as load attachment depth, anchor aspect ratio, and load inclination affect the DERA’s load capacity. Our findings indicate that PLA can serve as a valuable analytical tool for assessing the ultimate load capacity of the DERA, particularly under inclined loading conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty propagation in pore water chemical composition calculation using surrogate models

Performance assessment in deep geological nuclear waste repository systems necessitates an extended knowledge of the pore water chemical conditions prevailing in host-rock formations. In the last two decades, important progress has been made in the experimental characterization and thermodynamic modeling of pore water speciation, but the influence of experimental artifacts and uncertainties of thermodynamic input parameters are seldom evaluated. In this respect, we conducted an uncertainty propagation study in a reference geochemical model describing the pore water chemistry of the Callovian-Oxfordian clay formation. Nineteen model input parameters were perturbed, including those associated to experimental characterization (leached anions, exchanged cations, cation exchange selectivity coefficients) and those associated to generic thermodynamic databases (solubilities). A set of 13 quantities of interest were studied by the use of polynomial chaos expansions built non-intrusively with a least-squares forward stepwise regression approach. Training and validation sets of simulations were carried out using the geochemical speciation code PHREEQC. The statistical results explored the marginal distribution of each quantity of interest, their bivariate correlations as well as their global sensitivity indices. The influence of the assumed distributions for input parameters uncertainties was evaluated by considering two parametric domain sizes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗