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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5

Working with the National Center of Photovoltaics (NCPV) (Revised) (Fact Sheet)

Capabilities fact sheet for the National Center for Photovoltaics: Working with the National Center for Photovoltaics. One-sided sheet that includes projects in various areas: Technology Pathway Partnerships, CRADAs, Incubator Program, Pre-Incubator Program, Universities, Next-Generation Program, and NREL T&E.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Low-Cost High-Concentration Photovoltaic Systems for Utility Power Generation

Under DOE's Technology Pathway Partnership (TPP) program, Amonix, Inc. developed a new generation of high-concentration photovoltaic systems using multijunction technology and established the manufacturing capacity needed to supply multi-megawatt power plants built using the new Amonix 7700-series solar energy systems. For this effort, Amonix Collaborated with a variety of suppliers and partners to complete project tasks. Subcontractors included: Evonik/Cyro; Hitek; the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); Raytech; Spectrolab; UL; University of Nevada, Las Vegas; and TUV Rheinland PTL. The Amonix TPP tasks included: Task 1: Multijunction Cell Optimization for Field Operation, Task 2: Fresnel Lens R&D, Task 3: Cell Package Design & Production, Task 4: Standards Compliance and Reliability Testing, Task 5: Receiver Plate Production, Task 6: MegaModule Performance, Task 7: MegaModule Cost Reduction, Task 8: Factory Setup and MegaModule Production, Task 9: Tracker and Tracking Controller, Task 10: Installation and Balance of System (BOS), Task 11: Field Testing, and Task 12: Solar Advisor Modeling and Market Analysis. Amonix's TPP addressed nearly the complete PV value chain from epitaxial layer design and wafer processing through system design, manufacturing, deployment and O&M. Amonix has made progress toward achieving these reduced costs through the development of its 28%+ efficient MegaModule, reduced manufacturing and installation cost through design for manufacturing and assembly, automated manufacturing processes, and reduced O&M costs. Program highlights include: (1) Optimized multijunction cell and cell package design to improve performance by > 10%; (2) Updated lens design provided 7% increased performance and higher concentration; (3) 28.7% DC STC MegaModule efficiency achieved in Phase II exceeded Phase III performance goal; (4) New 16' focal length MegaModule achieved target materials and manufacturing cost reduction; (5) Designed and placed into production 25 MW/yr manufacturing capacity for complete MegaModules, including cell packages, receiver plates, and structures with lenses; (6) Designed and deployed Amonix 7700 series systems rated at 63 kW PTC ac and higher. Based on an LCOE assessment using NREL's Solar Advisor Model, Amonix met DOE's LCOE targets: Amonix 2011 LCOE 12.8 cents/kWh (2010 DOE goal 10-15); 2015 LCOE 6.4 cents/kWh (2015 goal 5-7) Amonix and TPP participants would like to thank the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technology Program for funding received under this program through Agreement No. DE-FC36-07GO17042.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Annual Report: Fuels (30 September 2012)

The thermochemical conversion of fossil fuels through gasification will likely be the cornerstone of future energy and chemical processes due to its flexibility to accommodate numerous feeds (coal, biomass, natural gas, municipal waste, etc.) and to produce a variety of products (heat, specialty chemicals, power, etc.), as well as the inherent nature of the process to facilitate near zero emissions. Currently, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Fuels Program has two pathways for syngas utilization: The production of transportation fuels, chemicals, or chemical intermediates. The hydrogen production as an intermediate for power production via advanced combustion turbines or fuel cells. Work under this activity focuses on the production, separation, and utilization of hydrogen from syngas using novel separation materials and processes. Advanced integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) schemes require the production of clean hydrogen to fuel innovative combustion turbines and fuel cells.

08 HYDROGEN↗

In-service Oxidation and IASCC in High Fluence Baffle-Former Bolts Retrieved from a Westinghouse PWR

Baffle-former bolts (BFBs) are subjected to significant mechanical stress and neutron irradiation from the reactor core during the plant operation. Over the long operation period, these conditions lead to potential degradation and reduced load-carrying capacity of the bolts, and life extension of existing pressurized water reactors (PWRs) would only cause more damage to the bolt material. To this end, the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program Materials Research Pathway (MRP) successfully harvested two high fluence BFBs from a Westinghouse two-loop downflow type PWR in 2016. In the same year, the two BFBs were received at the Westinghouse Churchill facility for inspection and specimen fabrication. The fabrication was completed in 2017 with specimens shipped to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for further testing. The objective of this project is to provide information that is integral to evaluating end of life microstructure and properties as a benchmark of international models developed for predicting radiation-induced swelling, segregation, precipitation, mechanical property degradation, and with the latest findings, susceptibility to irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking (IASCC).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration Strategy

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Plant Modernization Pathway has been working with industry for a number of years to leverage digital technology to extend the life and improve the performance of the existing fleet through modernized technologies and improved processes for plant operation and power generation. This includes development of modernization solutions to improve reliability and economic performance while addressing US nuclear industry’s aging and obsolescence challenges. The objective of these efforts is to deliver a sustainable business model that enables US nuclear industry to remain competitive. Digital Infrastructure (DI) research has established a technical foundation for these efforts. This effort began with technical analysis and support for a safety-related instrumentation and control (I&C) pilot upgrade being performed at Constellation Energy Generation’s Limerick Nuclear Plant. The following publicly available reports were produced as part of this effort. • INL/EXT-20-61079, Vendor-Independent Design Requirements for a Boiling Water Reactor Safety System Upgrade [1] • INL/EXT-20-59371, Business Case Analysis for Digital Safety-Related Instrumentation & Control System Modernizations [2] • INL/EXT-20-59809, “Safety-Related Instrumentation and Control Pilot Upgrade: Initial Scoping Phase Implementation Report and Lessons Learned [3] • INL/RPT-23-72105, Safety-Related Instrumentation and Control Upgrade: Conceptual – Detailed Design Phase Report and Lessons Learned [4]

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

An Evaluation of The Dynamic Physical Security Risk Assessment Methodology for Fleet-Wide Applications

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This integrated process for physical security analysis is named Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework (MASS-DEF). This document provides an update on the progress in applying the MASS-DEF process to an operating commercial nuclear power plant as well as additional industry feedback regarding use of the tool for other physical security risk-informed topics. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, and integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5 or MAAP. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report is an update the progress of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report also provides an update to the procedural guidance for the MASS-DEF process and an overview of the generic models available for use by utilities. This report does not contain any plant’s sensitive information and/or safeguards information. This study’s purpose was to verify that the results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Plant-specific Model and Data Analysis using Dynamic Security Modeling and Simulation

The requirements for U.S. nuclear power plants to maintain a large on-site physical security force contribute to their high operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program’s physical security pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. The conservatisms built into current security postures may be analyzed and minimized in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within LWRS program’s physical security pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrating them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an update on the progress in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available force-on-force simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This report is only a summary of the progress and does not contain specific modeling results as those contain sensitive security information. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework or MASS-DEF. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific force-on-force models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) or SAPHIRE (Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations), and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. This report does not contain any plant's sensitive information and/or Safeguards Information. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance on the use of the framework. This assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Developing a Strategy for Full Nuclear Plant Modernization

Recognizing the important role commercial nuclear power generation plays in the powering the economy and providing energy security to the nation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to perform research and development (R&D) that further establishes the technical foundations for managing the long-term, safe, and economical operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs). One particular R&D area in the LWRS program is the Plant Modernization pathway, which includes human factors R&D and instrumentation and control systems engineering to enable full plant modernization. By funding R&D on plant modernization, the LWRS program provides important technical information that can be used by decision makers on how to best proceed with modernizing the existing fleet of NPPs. Under the LWRS program Plant Modernization pathway, a considerable amount of R&D has been performed in the human factors and I&C engineering areas. This work has been done in collaboration with many different U.S. utilities, and focused on both control room instrumentation and control (I&C) upgrades, and I&C upgrades in the field. The work performed to date under the LWRS program has had a notable impact on the ability for these utilities to continue to operate their respective fleets of reactors, and LWRS program researchers are intent on doing even more. In order to do this, a more unified strategy for full nuclear plant modernization needs to be developed. This report documents the latest step LWRS program researchers have taken to develop this strategy. Taken together with prior reports written on this specific topic the work described here provides an even clearer picture on what the strategy for full nuclear plant modernization should look like.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Working with the National Center of Photovoltaics (NCPV) (Revised) (Fact Sheet)

Capabilities fact sheet for the National Center for Photovoltaics: Working with the National Center for Photovoltaics. One-sided sheet that includes projects in various areas: Technology Pathway Partnerships, CRADAs, Incubator Program, Pre-Incubator Program, Universities, Next-Generation Program, and NREL T&E.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Plant Modernization Technical Program Plan for FY 2019

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for FY 2019 for the Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program – Plant Modernization research pathway. A summary of the vision and strategy is provided to explain how this program addresses key issues and barriers for modernizing instrumentation and control technologies and infrastructure in domestic nuclear power plants. The report describes the pilot projects that have been formulated to develop and validate enabling technologies over the next several years that will result in digital alternatives to the legacy analog II&C systems in place today. This will allow much needed modernization of these systems to address reliability and obsolescence problems, as well as serve as a platform for substantial operational improvement. The report further describes key project resources and cooperative relationships, including the Electric Power Research Institute, the Nuclear Energy Institute )NEI), the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), the IFE Halden Reactor Project, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and industry suppliers, that are instrumental to the success of the program. The report also lists the schedule for all program products, including the titles and report numbers for all published reports under this program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Plant Modernization Technical Program Plan for FY 2021

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for FY 2019 for the Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program – Plant Modernization research pathway. A summary of the vision and strategy is provided to explain how this program addresses key issues and barriers for modernizing instrumentation and control technologies and infrastructure in domestic nuclear power plants. The report describes the pilot projects that have been formulated to develop and validate enabling technologies over the next several years that will result in digital alternatives to the legacy analog II&C systems in place today. This will allow much needed modernization of these systems to address reliability and obsolescence problems, as well as serve as a platform for substantial operational improvement. The report further describes key project resources and cooperative relationships, including the Electric Power Research Institute, the Nuclear Energy Institute )NEI), the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), the IFE Halden Reactor Project, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and industry suppliers, that are instrumental to the success of the program. The report also lists the schedule for all program products, including the titles and report numbers for all published reports under this program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Plant Modernization Technical Program Plan for FY 2021

This report presents the Technical Program Plan for FY 2019 for the Department of Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program – Plant Modernization research pathway. A summary of the vision and strategy is provided to explain how this program addresses key issues and barriers for modernizing instrumentation and control technologies and infrastructure in domestic nuclear power plants. The report describes the pilot projects that have been formulated to develop and validate enabling technologies over the next several years that will result in digital alternatives to the legacy analog II&C systems in place today. This will allow much needed modernization of these systems to address reliability and obsolescence problems, as well as serve as a platform for substantial operational improvement. The report further describes key project resources and cooperative relationships, including the Electric Power Research Institute, the Nuclear Energy Institute )NEI), the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO), the IFE Halden Reactor Project, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and industry suppliers, that are instrumental to the success of the program. The report also lists the schedule for all program products, including the titles and report numbers for all published reports under this program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

2021 Annual Report Laboratory Directed Research & Development

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program is an essential pathway for innovation, capability growth, and research staff development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This program enables timely and agile response to national security, energy, and environmental challenges that motivate INL’s mission to discover and demonstrate innovative nuclear energy solutions and other clean energy options as well as securing our critical infrastructure. This report highlights INL’s LDRD projects concluding in fiscal year (FY) 2021 which included innovative research and development (R&D) across INL’s five science and technology initiatives: nuclear reactor sustainment and expanded deployment, integrated fuel cycle solutions, integrated energy systems, advanced design and manufacturing for extreme environments, and secure and resilient cyber-physical systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SiC-CMC-Zircaloy-4 Nuclear Fuel Cladding Performance during 4-Point Tubular Bend Testing

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE NE) established the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program to develop technologies and other solutions to improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of current reactors. The Advanced LWR Nuclear Fuel Development Pathway in the LWRS program encompasses strategic research focused on improving reactor core economics and safety margins through the development of an advanced fuel cladding system. Recent investigations of potential options for “accident tolerant” nuclear fuel systems point to the potential benefits of silicon carbide (SiC) cladding. One of the proposed SiC-based fuel cladding designs being investigated incorporates a SiC ceramic matrix composite (CMC) as a structural material supplementing an internal Zircaloy-4 (Zr-4) liner tube, referred to as the hybrid clad design. Characterization of the advanced cladding designs will include a number of out-of-pile (nonnuclear) tests, followed by in-pile irradiation testing of the most promising designs. One of the out-of-pile characterization tests provides measurement of the mechanical properties of the cladding tube using four point bend testing. Although the material properties of the different subsystems (materials) will be determined separately, in this paper we present results of 4-point bending tests performed on fully assembled hybrid cladding tube mock-ups, an assembled Zr-4 cladding tube mock-up as a standard and initial testing results on bare SiC-CMC sleeves to assist in defining design parameters. The hybrid mock-up samples incorporated SiC-CMC sleeves fabricated with 7 polymer impregnation and pyrolysis (PIP) cycles. To provide comparative information; both 1- and 2-ply braided SiC-CMC sleeves were used in this development study. Preliminary stress simulations were performed using the BISON nuclear fuel performance code to show the stress distribution differences for varying lengths between loading points and clad configurations. The 2-ply sleeve samples show a higher bend momentum compared to those of the 1-ply sleeve samples. This is applicable to both the hybrid mock-up and bare SiC-CMC sleeve samples. Comparatively both the 1- and 2-ply hybrid mock-up samples showed a higher bend stiffness and strength compared with the standard Zr-4 mock-up sample. The characterization of the hybrid mock-up samples showed signs of distress and preliminary signs of fraying at the protective Zr-4 sleeve areas for the 1-ply SiC-CMC sleeve. In addition, the microstructure of the SiC matrix near the cracks at the region of highest compressive bending strain shows significant cracking and flaking. The 2-ply SiC-CMC sleeve samples showed a more bonded, cohesive SiC matrix structure. This cracking and fraying causes concern for increased fretting during the actual use of the design. Tomography was proven as a successful tool to identify open porosity during pre-test characterization. Although there is currently insufficient data to make conclusive statements regarding the overall merit of the hybrid cladding design, preliminary characterization of this novel design has been demonstrated.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

U.S. Department Of Energy Advanced Small Modular Reactor R&D Program: Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) Pathway

Instrumentation, controls, and human-machine interfaces (ICHMI) are essential enabling technologies that strongly influence nuclear power plant performance and operational costs. The nuclear power industry is currently engaged in a transition from traditional analog-based instrumentation, controls, and human-machine interface systems to implementations employing digital technologies. This transition has primarily occurred in an ad hoc fashion through individual system upgrades at existing plants and has been constrained by licenseability concerns. Although the recent progress in constructing new plants has spurred design of more fully digital plant-wide ICHMI systems, the experience base in the nuclear power application domain is limited. Additionally, development of advanced reactor concepts, such as Generation IV designs and small modular reactors, introduces different plant conditions (e.g., higher temperatures, different coolants, etc.) and unique plant configurations (e.g., multiunit plants with shared systems, balance of plant architectures with reconfigurable co-generation options) that increase the need for enhanced ICHMI capabilities to fully achieve industry goals related to economic competitiveness, safety and reliability, sustainability, and proliferation resistance and physical protection. As a result, significant challenges remain to be addressed to enable the nuclear power industry to complete the transition to safe and comprehensive use of modern ICHMI technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized that ICHMI research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) is needed to resolve the technical challenges that may compromise the effective and efficient utilization of modern ICHMI technology and consequently inhibit realization of the benefits offered by expanded utilization of nuclear power. Consequently, several DOE programs have substantial ICHMI RD&D elements within their respective research portfolios. This paper describes current ICHMI research in support of advanced small modular reactors. The objectives that can be achieved through execution of the defined RD&D are to provide optimal technical solutions to critical ICHMI issues, resolve technology gaps arising from the unique measurement and control characteristics of advanced reactor concepts, provide demonstration of needed technologies and methodologies in the nuclear power application domain, mature emerging technologies to facilitate commercialization, and establish necessary technical evidence and application experience to enable timely and predictable licensing. 1 Introduction Instrumentation, controls, and human-machine interfaces are essential enabling technologies that strongly influence nuclear power plant performance and operational costs. The nuclear power industry is currently engaged in a transition from traditional analog-based instrumentation, controls, and human-machine interface (ICHMI) systems to implementations employing digital technologies. This transition has primarily occurred in an ad hoc fashion through individual system upgrades at existing plants and has been constrained by licenseability concerns. Although the recent progress in constructing new plants has spurred design of more fully digital plant-wide ICHMI systems, the experience base in the nuclear power application domain is limited. Additionally, development of advanced reactor concepts, such as Generation IV designs and small modular reactors, introduces different plant conditions (e.g., higher temperatures, different coolants, etc.) and unique plant configurations (e.g., multiunit plants with shared systems, balance of plant architectures with reconfigurable co-generation options) that increase the need for enhanced ICHMI capabilities to fully achieve industry goals related to economic competitiveness, safety and reliability, sustainability, and proliferation resistance and physical protection. As a result, significant challenges remain to be addressed to enable the nuclear power industry to complete the transition to safe and comprehensive use of modern ICHMI technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has recognized that ICHMI research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) is needed to resolve the technical challenges that may compromise the effective and efficient utilization of modern ICHMI technology and consequently inhibit realization of the benefits offered by expanded utilization of nuclear power. Consequently, several DOE programs have substantial ICHMI RD&D elements to their respective research portfolio. The objectives that can be achieved through execution of the defined RD&D are to provide optimal technical solutions to critical ICHMI issues, resolve technology gaps arising from the unique measurement and control characteristics of advanced reactor concepts, provide demonstration of needed technologies and methodologies in the nuclear power application domain, mature emerging technologies to facilitate...

Digital I&C↗

The Future of Utility Customer-Funded Energy Efficiency Programs in the United States: Projected Spending and Savings to 2025

We develop projections of future spending on, and savings from, energy efficiency programs funded by electric and gas utility customers in the United States, under three scenarios through 2025. Our analysis, which updates a previous LBNL study, relies on detailed bottom-up modeling of current state energy efficiency policies, regulatory decisions, and demand-side management and utility resource plans. The three scenarios are intended to represent a range of potential outcomes under the current policy environment (i.e., without considering possible major new policy developments). By 2025, spending on electric and gas efficiency programs (excluding load management programs) is projected to double from 2010 levels to $9.5 billion in the medium case, compared to $15.6 billion in the high case and $6.5 billion in the low case. Compliance with statewide legislative or regulatory savings or spending targets is the primary driver for the increase in electric program spending through 2025, though a significant share of the increase is also driven by utility DSM planning activity and integrated resource planning. Our analysis suggests that electric efficiency program spending may approach a more even geographic distribution over time in terms of absolute dollars spent, with the Northeastern and Western states declining from over 70% of total U.S. spending in 2010 to slightly more than 50% in 2025, with the South and Midwest splitting the remainder roughly evenly. Under our medium case scenario, annual incremental savings from customer-funded electric energy efficiency programs increase from 18.4 TWh in 2010 in the U.S. (which is about 0.5% of electric utility retail sales) to 28.8 TWh in 2025 (0.8% of retail sales). These savings would offset the majority of load growth in the Energy Information Administration’s most recent reference case forecast, given specific assumptions about the extent to which future energy efficiency program savings are captured in that forecast. However, the pathway that customer-funded efficiency programs ultimately take will depend on a series of key challenges and uncertainties associated both with the broader market and policy context and with the implementation and regulatory oversight of the energy efficiency programs themselves.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activaties are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with software such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗