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Perturbations, TTVs & the (Un)reliability of Ephemerides of Kepler Planets

Fractional uncertainties quoted for orbital periods of the vast majority of planet candidates listed in recent Kepler catalogs are $<10^{-5}$, with values $\sim 10^{-6}$ (corresponding to 2 minutes per 4 years) being typical. These small uncertainties suggest ephemeris predictions for most Kepler planets are robust for decades to come. Tabulated periods list formal uncertainties in the mean times between midpoints of successive transits during the time interval in which transits were observed. However, transit timing variations (TTVs) produce errors in estimates of some planets’ orbital periods that need to be accounted for in certain dynamical investigations and ephemeris predictions. Periodic TTVs with timescales short compared to the interval of Kepler observations largely average out and do not produce significant errors in estimates of orbital periods. TTVs with timescales comparable to the interval of Kepler observations have been fit for dozens of Kepler planet candidates to estimate long-term average orbital periods (Holczer et al. 2016, ApJS 225, 9), and more detailed dynamical models have been used to estimate long-term average periods of a small number of well-studied planets. Most Kepler planets that show large TTVs are near mean-motion orbital resonances with other planets. The largest effect for planets moderately close to two-body resonances are due to rotation of the forced eccentricity vector by resonant perturbations; the timescale for this precession is typically short, so the variations tend to average out. Libration of planets locked in resonances typically occurs on timescales longer than the Kepler baseline, but few Kepler planets appear to be resonantly-locked. The more general but smaller (during the era of Kepler observations) effect is caused by secular precession of the planets' free eccentricities usually has a period much longer than the baseline of the Kepler observations, so it is not accounted for in estimates of mean periods or uncertainties. This precession causes a discrepancy between Kepler era mean orbital period and long-term mean orbital period can exist even for planets having TTVs that are too small to be observable during the epoch of Kepler observations.

Kepler↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Kepler Mission: A Photometric Search for Earthlike Planets

If Earth lies in or near the orbital plane of an extrasolar planet, that planet passes in front of the disk of its star once each orbit as viewed from Earth. Precise photometry can reveal such transits, which can be distinguished from rotationally-modulated starspots and intrinsic stellar variability by their periodicity, square-well shapes and relative spectral neutrality. Transit observations would provide the size and orbital period of the detected planet. Although geometrical considerations limit the fraction of planets detectable by this technique, many stars can be surveyed within the field of view of one telescope, so transit photometry is quite efficient. Scintillation in and variability of Earth's atmosphere limit photometric precision to roughly one-thousandth of a magnitude, allowing detection of transits by Jupiter-sized planets but not by Earth-sized planets from the ground. The COROT spacecraft will be able to detect Uranus-sized planets orbiting near stars. The Kepler Mission, which is being proposed to NASA's Discovery Program this year, will have a photometer with a larger aperture (1 meter) than will COROT, so it will be able to detect transits by planets as small as Earth. Moreover, the Kepler mission will examine the same star field for four years, allowing confirmation of planets with orbital periods of a year. If the Sun's planetary system is typical for single stars, Kepler should detect approximately 480 terrestrial planets. Assuming the statistics from radial velocity surveys are typical, Kepler should also detect transits of 150 inner giant planets and reflected light variations of 1400 giant planets with orbital periods of less than one week.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Planet Formation

Modern theories of star and planet formation and of the orbital stability of planetary systems are described and used to discuss possible characteristics of undiscovered planetary systems. The most detailed models of planetary growth are based upon observations of planets and smaller bodies within our own Solar System and of young stars and their environments. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant planets begin their growth as do terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. These models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most single stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. A potential hazard to planetary systems is radial decay of planetary orbits resulting from interactions with material within the disk. Planets more massive than Earth have the potential to decay the fastest, and may be able to sweep up smaller planets in their path. The implications of the giant planets found in recent radial velocity searches for the abundances of habitable planets are discussed, and the methods that are being used and planned for detecting and characterizing extrasolar planets are reviewed.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Formation of the giant planets

The observed properties of giant planets, models of their evolution and observations of protoplanetary disks provide constraints on the formation of gas giant planets. The four largest planets in our Solar System contain considerable quantities of hydrogen and helium, which could not have condensed into solid planetesimals within the protoplanetary disk. All three (transiting) extrasolar giant planets with well determined masses and radii also must contain substantial amounts of these light gases. Jupiter and Saturn are mostly hydrogen and helium, but have larger abundances of heavier elements than does the Sun. Neptune and Uranus are primarily composed of heavier elements. HD 149026 b, which is slightly more massive than is Saturn, appears to have comparable quantities of light gases and heavy elements. HD 209458 b and TrES-1 are primarily hydrogen and helium, but may contain supersolar abundances of heavy elements. Spacecraft flybys and observations of satellite orbits provide estimates of the gravitational moments of the giant planets in our Solar System, which in turn provide information on the internal distribution of matter within Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Atmospheric thermal structure and heat flow measurements constrain the interior temperatures of planets. Internal processes may cause giant planets to become more compositionally differentiated or alternatively more homogeneous; high-pressure laboratory .experiments provide data useful for modeling these processes. The preponderance of evidence supports the core nucleated gas accretion model. According to this model, giant planets begin their growth by the accumulation of small solid bodies, as do terrestrial planets. However, unlike terrestrial planets, the growing giant planet cores become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. The primary questions regarding the core nucleated growth model is under what conditions planets with small cores/total heavy element abundances can accrete gaseous envelopes within the lifetimes of gaseous protoplanetary disks.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Formation Of the Giant Planets By Concurrent Accretion Of Solids And Gas

New numerical simulations of the formation of the giant planets are presented, in which for the first time both the gas and planetesimal accretion rates are calculated in a self-consistent, interactive fashion. The simulations combine three elements: 1) three-body accretion cross-sections of solids onto an isolated planetary embryo, 2) a stellar evolution code for the planet's gaseous envelope, and 3) a planetesimal dissolution code within the envelope, used to evaluate the planet's effective capture radius and the energy deposition profile of accreted material. Major assumptions include: The planet is embedded in a disk of gas and small planetesimals with locally uniform initial surface mass density, and planetesimals are not allowed to migrate into or out of the planet's feeding zone. All simulations are characterized by three major phases. During the first phase, the planet's mass consists primarily of solid material. The planetesimal accretion rate, which dominates that of gas, rapidly increases owing to runaway accretion, then decreases as the planet's feeding zone is depleted. During the second phase, both solid and gas accretion rates are small and nearly independent of time. The third phase, marked by runaway gas accretion, starts when the solid and gas masses are about equal. It is engendered by a strong positive feedback on the gas accretion rates, driven by the rapid contraction of the gaseous envelope and the rapid expansion of the outer boundary, which depends on the planet's total mass. The overall evolutionary time scale is generally determined by the length of the second phase. The actual rates at which the giant planets accreted small planetesimals is probably intermediate between the constant rates assumed in most previous studies and the highly variable rates that we have used. Within the context, of the adopted model of planetesimal accretion, the joint constraints of the time scale for dissipation of the solar nebula and the current high-Z masses of the giant planets lead to estimates of the initial surface density (sigma(sub init)) of planetesimals in the outer region of the solar nebula. The results show sigma(sub init) approx. = 10 g/sq cm near Jupiter's orbit and that sigma(sub init) proportional to alpha(sup -2), where alpha is the distance from the Sun. These values are a factor of 3 - 4 times as high as that of the "minimum mass" solar nebula at Jupiter's distance and a factor of 2 - 3 times as high it Saturn's distance. Our estimates for the formation time of Jupiter and Saturn are 1 - 10 million years while those for Uranus fall in the range of 2 - 16 million years. These estimates follow from the properties of our Solar System and do not necessarily apply to giant planets in other planetary systems.

Pollack, James B.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Biases In A Magnitude Limited Versus A Distant Limited Planet Search

All methods utilized to conduct a search or survey inevitably have some built-in biases. These biases are often traced to some limitation of the instrument used or some inherent character of the signal being recorded. We address these limitations for various methods used or proposed for planet detection: spectroscopy, astrometry, interferometry, and photometry. For spectroscopy, the turbulence in the photosphere limits the minimum measurable dossier velocity to 3 m/s and hence the minimum planet to star mass ratio, thereby favoring massive close-in planets. Limited available observing time will necessarily introduce additional selection biases in the targets observed and telescope aperture will limit the faintest magnitude stars to be measured; For astrometry, the angular resolution of the instrument along with motions in the photometric center of the star limit the furthest distance for which giant planets can be detected to about 10 pc and favor massive outer orbit planets around low mass non-solar like stars; For imaging interferometry, the minimum angular size of the central null limits both the distance to the star and closeness of the planet to the host star to about 1 AU at 10 pc and thus to the very few solar-like stars within 10 pc. Solar and extra-solar zodiacal emission will limit the minimum size of the detectable planet. For photometry, the inherent variability of the star does not limit the minimum planet size until earth-sized or smaller planets are considered around solar-like stars. The telescope aperture limits the faintest stars that can be monitored. As with spectroscopy, there is no inherent distant limit to the method. After addressing the limiting factors of each method, an estimate is made of the number of planets of various sizes that could be found for each stellar type based on the detection probability and the number of stars that can be searched for planets.

Koch, David↗
NASA NTRS2002

Kepler Mission: A Discovery-Class Mission Designed to Determine the Frequency of Earth-Size and Larger Planets Around Solar-Like Stars

The first step in discovering the extent of life in our galaxy is to determine the number of terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ). The Kepler Mission is designed around a 0.95 in aperture Schmidt-type telescope with an array of 42 CCDs designed to continuously monitor the brightness of 100,000 solar-like stars to detect the transits of Earth-size and larger planets. The photometer is scheduled to be launched into heliocentric orbit in 2007. Measurements of the depth and repetition time of transits provide the size of the planet relative to the star and its orbital period. When combined with ground-based spectroscopy of these stars to fix the stellar parameters, the true planet radius and orbit scale, hence the position relative to the HZ are determined. These spectra are also used to discover the relationships between the characteristics of planets and the stars they orbit. In particular, the association of planet size and occurrence frequency with stellar mass and metallicity will be investigated. At the end of the four year mission, hundreds of terrestrial planets should be discovered in and near the HZ of their stars if such planets are common. Extending the mission to six years doubles the expected number of Earth-size planets in the HZ. A null result would imply that terrestrial planets in the HZ occur in less than 1% of the stars and that life might be quite rare. Based on the results of the current Doppler-velocity discoveries, detection of a thousand giant planets is expected. Information on their albedos and densities of those giants showing transits will be obtained.

William Borucki↗
NASA NTRS2006

Terrestrial Planet Formation in Binary Star Systems

Most stars reside in binary/multiple star systems; however, previous models of planet formation have studied growth of bodies orbiting an isolated single star. Disk material has been observed around one or both components of various young close binary star systems. If planets form at the right places within such disks, they can remain dynamically stable for very long times. We have simulated the late stages of growth of terrestrial planets in both circumbinary disks around 'close' binary star systems with stellar separations ($a_B$) in the range 0.05 AU $\le a_B \le$ 0.4 AU and binary eccentricities in the range $0 \le e \le 0.8$ and circumstellar disks around individual stars with binary separations of tens of AU. The initial disk of planetary embryos is the same as that used for simulating the late stages of terrestrial planet growth within our Solar System and around individual stars in the Alpha Centauri system (Quintana et al. 2002, A.J., 576, 982); giant planets analogous to Jupiter and Saturn are included if their orbits are stable. The planetary systems formed around close binaries with stellar apastron distances less than or equal to 0.2 AU with small stellar eccentricities are very similar to those formed in the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn, whereas planetary systems formed around binaries with larger maximum separations tend to be sparser, with fewer planets, especially interior to 1 AU. Likewise, when the binary periastron exceeds 10 AU, terrestrial planets can form over essentially the entire range of orbits allowed for single stars with Jupiter-like planets, although fewer terrestrial planets tend to form within high eccentricity binary systems. As the binary periastron decreases, the radial extent of the terrestrial planet systems is reduced accordingly. When the periastron is 5 AU, the formation of Earth-like planets near 1 AU is compromised.

Lissauer, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Formation of Giant Planets and Brown Dwarves

According to the prevailing core instability model, giant planets begin their growth by the accumulation of small solid bodies, as do terrestrial planets. However, unlike terrestrial planets, the growing giant planet cores become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. Models predict that rocky planets should form in orbit about most stars. It is uncertain whether or not gas giant planet formation is common, because most protoplanetary disks may dissipate before solid planetary cores can grow large enough to gravitationally trap substantial quantities of gas. Ongoing theoretical modeling of accretion of giant planet atmospheres, as well as observations of protoplanetary disks, will help decide this issue. Observations of extrasolar planets around main sequence stars can only provide a lower limit on giant planet formation frequency . This is because after giant planets form, gravitational interactions with material within the protoplanetary disk may cause them to migrat~ inwards and be lost to the central star. The core instability model can only produce planets greater than a few jovian masses within protoplanetary disks that are more viscous than most such disks are believed to be. Thus, few brown dwarves (objects massive enough to undergo substantial deuterium fusion, estimated to occur above approximately 13 jovian masses) are likely to be formed in this manner. Most brown dwarves, as well as an unknown number of free-floating objects of planetary mass, are probably formed as are stars, by the collapse of extended gas/dust clouds into more compact objects.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Masses, Radii, and Cloud Properties of the HR 8799 Planets

The near-infrared colors of the planets directly imaged around the A star HR 8799 are much redder than most field brown dwarfs of the same effective temperature. Previous theoretical studies of these objects have compared the photometric and limited spectral data of the planets to the predictions of various atmosphere and evolution models and concluded that the atmospheres of planets b, c, and d are unusually cloudy or have unusual cloud properties. Most studies have also found that the inferred radii of some or all of the planets disagree with expectations of standard giant planet evolution models. Here we compare the available data to the predictions of our own set of atmospheric and evolution models that have been extensively tested against field L and T dwarfs, including the reddest L dwarfs. Unlike almost all previous studies we specify mutually self-consistent choices for effective temperature, gravity, cloud properties, and planetary radius. This procedure yields plausible and self-consistent values for the masses, effective temperatures, and cloud properties of all three planets. We find that the cloud properties of the HR 8799 planets are in fact not unusual but rather follow previously recognized trends including a gravity dependence on the temperature of the L to T spectral transition, some reasons for which we discuss. We find that the inferred mass of planet b is highly sensitive to the H and K band spectrum. Solutions for planets c and particularly d are less certain but are consistent with the generally accepted constraints on the age of the primary star and orbital dynamics. We also confirm that as for L and T dwarfs and solar system giant planets, non-equilibrium chemistry driven by atmospheric mixing is also important for these objects. Given the preponderance of data suggesting that the L to T spectral type transition is gravity dependent, we present a new evolution calculation that predicts cooling tracks on the near-infrared color-magnitude diagram. Finally we argue that the range of uncertainty conventionally quoted for the bolometric luminosity of all three planets is too small.

Marley, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Habitable Moist Atmospheres on Terrestrial Planets near the Inner Edge of the Habitable Zone Around M Dwarfs

Terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of low-mass stars and cool dwarfs have received significant scrutiny recently. Transit spectroscopy of such planets with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) represents our best shot at obtaining the spectrum of a habitable planet within the next decade. As these planets are likely tidally locked, improved 3D numerical simulations of such planetary atmospheres are needed to guide target selection. Here we use a 3D climate system model, updated with new water-vapor absorption coefficients derived from the HITRAN 2012 database, to study ocean-covered planets at the inner edge of the HZ around late M to mid- K stars (2600 K less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 4500 K). Our results indicate that these updated water-vapor coefficients result in significant warming compared to previous studies, so the inner HZ around M dwarfs is not as close as suggested by earlier work. Assuming synchronously rotating Earth-sized and Earth-mass planets with background 1 bar N2 atmospheres, we find that planets at the inner HZ of stars with T(sub eff) greater than 3000 K undergo the classical ''moist greenhouse'' (H2O mixing ratio greater than 10(exp -3) in the stratosphere) at significantly lower surface temperature (approx. 280 K) in our 3D model compared with 1D climate models (approx. 340 K). This implies that some planets around low-mass stars can simultaneously undergo water loss and remain habitable. However, for stars with T(sub eff) less than or equal to 3000 K, planets at the inner HZ may directly transition to a runaway state, while bypassing the moist greenhouse water loss entirely. We analyze transmission spectra of planets in a moist greenhouse regime and find that there are several prominent H2O features, including a broad feature between 5 and 8 micron, within JWST MIRI instrument range. Thus, relying only on standard Earth-analog spectra with 24 hr rotation period around M dwarfs for habitability studies will miss the strong H2O features that one would expect to see on synchronously rotating planets around M dwarf stars, with JWST.

Kopparapu, Ravi kumar↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Separation and Hα Contrasts of Massive Accreting Planets in the Gaps of Transitional Disks: Predicted Hα Protoplanet Yields for Adaptive Optics Surveys

We present a massive accreting gap planet model that ensures large gaps in transitional disks are kept dust free by the scattering action of three coplanar quasi-circular planets in a 1:2:4 mean motion resonance (MMR). This model uses the constraint of the observed gap size, and the dust-free nature of the gap, to determine within ∼10% the possible orbits for three massive planets in an MMR. Calculated orbits are consistent with the observed orbits and Hα emission (the brightest line to observe these planets) for LkCa 15 b, PDS 70 b, and PDS 70 c within observational errors. Moreover, the model suggests that the scarcity of detected Hα planets is likely a selection effect of the current limitations of non-coronagraphic, low (<10%) Strehl, Hα imaging with adaptive optics (AO) systems used in past Hα surveys. We predict that as higher Strehl AO systems (with high-performance custom coronagraphs; like the 6.5 m Magellan Telescope MagAO-X system) are utilized at Hα, the number of detected gap planets will substantially increase by more than tenfold. For example, we show that >25 ± 5 new Hα “gap planets” are potentially discoverable by a survey of the best 19 transitional disks with MagAO-X. Detections of these accreting protoplanets will significantly improve our understanding of planet formation, planet growth and accretion, solar system architectures, and planet–disk interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultra-short-period Planets Are Stable against Tidal Inspiral

It has been unambiguously shown both in individual systems and at the population level that hot Jupiters experience tidal inspiral before the end of their host stars’ main-sequence lifetimes. Ultra-short-period (USP) planets have orbital periods P < 1 day, rocky compositions, and are expected to experience tidal decay on similar timescales to hot Jupiters if the efficiency of tidal dissipation inside their host stars parameterized as Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} is independent of P and/or secondary mass M {sub p}. Any difference between the two classes of systems would reveal that a model with constant Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} is insufficient. If USP planets experience tidal inspiral, then USP planet systems will be relatively young compared to similar stars without USP planets. Because it is a proxy for relative age, we calculate the Galactic velocity dispersions of USP planet candidate host and non-host stars using data from Gaia Data Release 2 supplemented with ground-based radial velocities. We find that main-sequence USP planet candidate host stars have kinematics consistent with similar stars in the Kepler field without observed USP planets. This indicates that USP planet hosts have similar ages to field stars and that USP planets do not experience tidal inspiral during the main-sequence lifetimes of their host stars. The survival of USP planets requires that Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} ≳ 10{sup 7} at P ≈ 0.7 day and M{sub p}≈2.6 M{sub ⊕}. This result demands that Q{sub ∗}{sup ′} depend on the orbital period and/or mass of the secondary in the range 0.5 day≲P≲5 days and 1 M{sub ⊕}≲M{sub p}≲1000 M{sub ⊕}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2016

The First Circumbinary Planet Found by Microlensing: OGLE-2007-BLG-349L(AB)c

We present the analysis of the first circumbinary planet microlensing event, OGLE-2007-BLG-349. This event has a strong planetary signal that is best fit with a mass ratio of q approx. = 3.4×10(exp −4), but there is an additional signal due to an additional lens mass, either another planet or another star. We find acceptable light-curve fits with two classes of models: two-planet models (with a single host star) and circumbinary planet models. The light curve also reveals a significant microlensing parallax effect, which constrains the mass of the lens system to be M(sub L) approx. = 0.7 Stellar Mass. Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images resolve the lens and source stars from their neighbors and indicate excess flux due to the star(s) in the lens system. This is consistent with the predicted flux from the circumbinary models, where the lens mass is shared between two stars, but there is not enough flux to be consistent with the two-planet, one-star models. So, only the circumbinary models are consistent with the HST data. They indicate a planet of mass m(sub c) = 80 +/- 13 Stellar Mass, orbiting a pair of M dwarfs with masses of M(sub A) = 0.41+/- 0.07 and M(sub B) = 0.30 +/- 0.07, which makes this the lowest-mass circumbinary planet system known. The ratio of the separation between the planet and the center of mass to the separation of the two stars is approx.40, so unlike most of the circumbinary planets found by Kepler, the planet does not orbit near the stability limit.

OGLE-2007-BLG-349↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of 10 Unique Chemical Elements in Shaping the Distribution of Kepler Planets

The chemical abundances of planet-hosting stars offer a glimpse into the composition of planet-forming environments. To further understand this connection, we make the first ever measurement of the correlation between planet occurrence and chemical abundances for ten different elements (C, Mg, Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Mn, Fe, and Ni). Leveraging data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia to derive precise stellar parameters (${\sigma }_{{R}_{\star }}\approx 2.3 \% $, ${\sigma }_{{M}_{\star }}\approx 4.5 \% $) for a sample of 1018 Kepler Objects of Interest, we construct a sample of well-vetted Kepler planets with precisely measured radii (${\sigma }_{{R}_{p}}\approx 3.4 \% $). After controlling for biases in the Kepler detection pipeline and the selection function of the APOGEE survey, we characterize the relationship between planet occurrence and chemical abundance as the number density of nuclei of each element in a star's photosphere raised to a power, β. varies by planet type, but is consistent within our uncertainties across all ten elements. For hot planets (P = 1–10 days), an enhancement in any element of 0.1 dex corresponds to an increased occurrence of ≈20% for super-Earths (Rp = 1–1.9 R⊕) and ≈60% for sub-Neptunes (Rp = 1.9–4 R⊕). Trends are weaker for warm (P = 10–100 days) planets of all sizes and for all elements, with the potential exception of sub-Saturns (Rp = 4–8 R⊕). Finally, we conclude this work with a caution to interpreting trends between planet occurrence and stellar age due to degeneracies caused by Galactic chemical evolution and make predictions for planet occurrence rates in nearby open clusters to facilitate demographics studies of young planetary systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Planet Detection Tutorial and Simulator

Detection of extra-solar planets has been a very popular topic with the general public for years. Considerable media coverage of recent detections (currently at about 50) has only heightened the interest in the topic. School children are particularly interested in learning about recent astronomical discoveries. Scientists have the knowledge and responsibility to present this information in both an understandable and interesting format. Most classrooms and homes are now connected to the internet, which can be utilized to provide more than a traditional 'flat' presentation. An interactive software package on planet detection has been developed. The major topics include: "1996 - The Break Through Year In Planet Detection"; "What Determines If A Planet Is Habitable?"; "How Can We Find Other Planets (Search Methods)"; "All About the Kepler Mission: How To Find Terrestrial Planets"; and "A Planet Detection Simulator". Using the simulator, the student records simulated observations and then analyzes and interprets the data within the program. One can determine the orbit and planet size, the planet's temperature and surface gravity, and finally determine if the planet is habitable. Originally developed for the Macintosh, a web based browser version is being developed.

Knoch, David↗
NASA NTRS1995

Derivation Of the Occurrence Of Multiple Planets In Transit

All methods for extra-solar planet detection have their advantages and drawbacks. In photometry, for a planet to be detectable, it must pass in front of its star along the line of sight to the star. This may seem at first to be an unusual event, when in fact it has been shown to be equal to d*/D, or about 1% for planetary systems like our own (d* is the stellar diameter and D is the orbital diameter). Planetary scientists are interested in the complexities of an entire system rather than just a single planet. At first it might seem extremely unlikely that multiple planets would be detectable. But imagine having detected a planet in transit and that the relative inclinations, phi, of all the orbits is smaller than d*/D. Then, if you detect one planet, you should detect nearly all of them. However, for the solar system phi greater than d*/D, but still small. The exact derivation will be presented for the occurrence of multiple plane's in transit. A good approximation to the result is found to be given by (4/pi(phi)(d*/D(sub 2)), where D(sub 2) is the orbit of the second planet. For example if phi is 2 deg, then the probability for finding a second planet if it has an inclination less than phi will be equal to 36 d*/D(sub 2). For inner planets around solar-like stars, this turns out to be on the order of 20% of the systems detected. Extending this to three planets, such as for Venus, Earth and Mars, the probability would be 4%.

Koch, D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Kepler Mission: A Wide-FOV Photometer Designed to Determine the Frequency of Earth-Size and Larger Planets Around Solar-like stars

The first step in discovering the extent of life in our galaxy is to determine the number of terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ). The Kepler Mission is designed around a 0.95 m aperture Schmidt-type telescope with an array of 42 CCDs designed to continuously monitor the brightness of 100,000 solar-like stars to detect the transits of Earth-size and larger planets. The photometer is scheduled to be launched into heliocentric orbit in 2007. Measurements of the depth and repetition time of transits provide the size of the planet relative to the star and its orbital period. When combined with ground-based spectroscopy of these stars to fix the stellar parameters, the true planet radius and orbit scale, hence the position relative to the HZ are determined. These spectra are also used to discover the relationships between the characteristics of planets and the stars they orbit. In particular, the association of planet size and occurrence frequency with stellar mass and metallicity will be investigated. At the end of the four year mission, hundreds of terrestrial planets should be discovered in and near the HZ of their stars if such planets are common. A null result would imply that terrestrial planets in the HZ occur in less than 1% of the stars and that life might be quite rare. Based on the results of the current doppler-velocity discoveries, detection of a thousand giant planets is expected. Information on their albedos and densities of those giants showing transits will be obtained.

Borucki, William↗