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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2020

Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO 2 eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossilfuel- dependent countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment

To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rethinking agrivoltaic incentive programs: A science-based approach to encourage practical design solutions

Agrivoltaic systems are promising solutions to address global food and energy challenges by combining agriculture and solar photovoltaics. However, the lack of appropriate regulations to define and guide their implementation constrains the growth of agrivoltaic systems in the U.S. This study uses a shading and radiation tool to evaluate an existing agrivoltaic incentive program that defines agrivoltaic designs based on shading reduction limits and panel height requirements. Our analysis indicates that structuring policy requirements around shading, and not light availability, may lead to an underestimation of crop suitability by neglecting diffuse radiation. Furthermore, we show that agrivoltaic systems can avoid increasing panel height if policy acknowledges use-case scenarios where farming only occurs between rows. In light of these insights, this study proposes two key policy recommendations: (1) benchmark crop suitability based on daily light integral (DLI) requirements for a shade-intolerant crop selected to represent a prevalent crop in the region, and (2) include an incentive scenario where agriculture is only required between rows. Furthermore, these two recommendations can potentially incentivize designs that are practical and closer in cost to conventional solar farms, thereby accelerating the adoption of cost-effective agrivoltaic systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cost and Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Implications of Integrating Biogas Upgrading and Carbon Capture Technologies in Cellulosic Biorefineries

We discuss gaseous streams in biorefineries that have been undervalued and underutilized. In cellulosic biorefineries, coproduced biogas is assumed to be combusted alongside lignin to generate process heat and electricity. Biogas can instead be upgraded to compressed biomethane and used as a transportation fuel. Capturing CO 2 -rich streams generated in biorefineries can also contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goals. We explore the economic and life-cycle GHG impacts of biogas upgrading and CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) at ionic liquid-based cellulosic ethanol biorefineries using biomass sorghum. Without policy incentives, biorefineries with biogas upgrading systems can achieve a comparable minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) and reduced GHG footprint ($1.38/liter gasoline equivalent (LGE) and 12.9 gCO 2e /MJ) relative to facilities that combust biogas onsite ($1.34/LGE and 24.3 gCO 2e /MJ). Incorporating renewable identification number (RIN) values advantages facilities that upgrade biogas relative to other options (MESP of $0.72/LGE). Incorporating CCS increases the MESP but dramatically decreases the GHG footprint (-21.3 gCO 2e /MJ for partial, -110.7 gCO 2e /MJ for full CCS). The addition of CCS also decreases the cost of carbon mitigation to as low as $52-$78/t CO 2 , depending on the assumed fuel selling price, and is the lowest-cost option if both RIN and California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits are incorporated.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Discovering mechanisms for materials microstructure optimization via reinforcement learning of a generative model

Abstract The design of materials structure for optimizing functional properties and potentially, the discovery of novel behaviors is a keystone problem in materials science. In many cases microstructural models underpinning materials functionality are available and well understood. However, optimization of average properties via microstructural engineering often leads to combinatorically intractable problems. Here, we explore the use of the reinforcement learning (RL) for microstructure optimization targeting the discovery of the physical mechanisms behind enhanced functionalities. We illustrate that RL can provide insights into the mechanisms driving properties of interest in a 2D discrete Landau ferroelectrics simulator. Intriguingly, we find that non-trivial phenomena emerge if the rewards are assigned to favor physically impossible tasks, which we illustrate through rewarding RL agents to rotate polarization vectors to energetically unfavorable positions. We further find that strategies to induce polarization curl can be non-intuitive, based on analysis of learned agent policies. This study suggests that RL is a promising machine learning method for material design optimization tasks, and for better understanding the dynamics of microstructural simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rethinking the Price Formation Problem–Part 2: Rewarding Flexibility and Managing Price Risk

In this study, part 1 of this two-part paper describes the impact that uncertainty has on the design and analysis of price formation policies in the non-convex auctions conducted by U.S. wholesale electricity market operators. Using first a toy model and then a large-scale test system, Part 2 demonstrates the difference in prices under the idealized benchmark of ex ante convex hull pricing defined in Part 1 versus existing methods, in particular documenting the potential for suppression of volatility and therefore under-compensation of flexibility by existing methods. The examples highlight that inefficient spot price formation can induce inefficient forward commitments of generators, necessitating out-of-market intervention to restore a reliable and efficient operating plan.Given the potential side effects of existing policies for investment and operation, we suggest two elements in a reoriented approach to the price formation problem: first ensuring that prices exhibit full-strength volatility, and second ensuring that risk-averse market participants have sufficient ability to manage this volatility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rethinking the Price Formation Problem–Part 1: Participant Incentives under Uncertainty

Operators of organized wholesale electricity markets attempt to form prices in such a way that the private incentives of market participants are consistent with a socially optimal commitment and dispatch schedule. In the U.S. context, several competing price formation schemes have been proposed to address the non-convex production cost functions characteristic of most generation technologies. Here, this paper considers how the design and analysis of price formation policies for non-convex markets are affected by the uncertainty inherent in electricity demand and supply. We argue that by excluding uncertainty, the analytical framework underlying existing policies mischaracterizes the incentives of market participants, leading to inefficient price formation and poor incentives for flexibility. We establish favorable theoretical properties of a new construct, ex ante convex hull pricing , and demonstrate the difference between this idealized benchmark and existing methods on a large-scale test system. Given increased operational uncertainty with a transition to wind and solar generation, distortions caused by poor incentives for flexibility are likely to grow without improved price formation in organized wholesale markets.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report – 2020 (Data Cutoff Date 12/31/2019)

The purpose of this Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report (ATWIR) – 2020 is to document the inventory estimate of transuranic (TRU) waste reported by the TRU waste generator sites as of December 31, 2019. This report also notes major changes to the inventory used for the ATWIR-2019 that had a data cutoff date of December 31, 2018. This updated inventory information is available to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) TRU waste complex, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) stakeholders, and regulators. The TRU waste inventory information is used for strategic planning, and supports the DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) input into documents (e.g., WIPP Documented Safety Analysis and National Environmental Policy Act analyses), planned changes, and other design changes as needed for the WIPP project.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report – 2021 (Data Cutoff Date 12/31/2020)

The purpose of this Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report (ATWIR) – 2021 is to document the inventory estimate of transuranic (TRU) waste reported by the TRU waste generator sites as of December 31, 2020. This report also notes major changes to the inventory used for the ATWIR-2020 that had a data cutoff date of December 31, 2019. This updated inventory information is available to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) TRU waste complex, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) stakeholders, and regulators. The TRU waste inventory information is used for strategic planning, and supports the DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) input into documents (e.g., WIPP Documented Safety Analysis and National Environmental Policy Act analyses), planned changes, and other design changes as needed for the WIPP project.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report – 2022 (Data Cutoff Date 12/31/2021)

The purpose of this Annual Transuranic Waste Inventory Report (ATWIR) – 2022 is to document the inventory estimate of transuranic (TRU) waste reported by the TRU waste generator sites as of December 31, 2021. This report also notes major changes to the inventory since the ATWIR-2021, which had a data cutoff date of December 31, 2020. This updated inventory information is available to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) TRU waste complex, Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) stakeholders, and regulators. The TRU waste inventory information is used for strategic planning, and supports the DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) input into documents (e.g., WIPP Documented Safety Analysis and National Environmental Policy Act evaluations), performance assessments, planned changes, and other design changes as needed for the WIPP project.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Waiting in Queue: A Historical Evaluation of Interconnection Policy

Both states and Independent System Operators (ISO)/Regional Transmission Organizations (RTO) have struggled with long wait times in interconnection queues. As a result, numerous reforms have been proposed to expedite the connection of new resources to the grid. This paper conducts a quantitative analysis of two of these policies: one providing detail hosting capacity information in Massachusetts, the other experimenting with cost allocation in New York. We find that both policies led to a statistically significant decrease in the times projects spend pending in interconnection queues, with New York seeing a small drop in days pending, and Massachusetts seeing a much larger one. We also include an analysis of how energy storage is impacts queue time in these states. These results can help inform regulators who are weighing reforms to interconnection policies, with the goal of reducing wait times.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Models

The Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models (https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/jedi/) are publicly available, user-friendly tools designed to estimate the economic impacts of both construction and operation of power generation and biofuel plants at a local (usually state) level. Based on project-specific and default inputs (from techno-economic analysis data and NREL's expertise), these models estimate the number of jobs and economic benefits to a region that could reasonably be supported by a particular project. Underlying these calculations is an input-output framework that models the local economy as a network of sectors buying and selling to one-another, creating a multiplier effect. Over the last decade, JEDI has been widely used by both the academic and private sectors, serving as the foundations for multiple peer-reviewed publications and impact analysis reports.

economic impact analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Technical Assistance Opportunities for Tribes

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) offers many forms of technical assistance for Tribes to support local clean energy priorities and challenges. With broad support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and local partners, NREL provides technical expertise to enable data-driven, informed clean energy decision making. Technical assistance may address energy strategy, project financing, policy design and development, data analysis, economic development, infrastructure planning, energy justice, climate change, resilience, or other energy priorities. NREL has a long history of partnering with Tribes and Tribal organizations, including in Alaska Native Villages where the extreme Arctic climate poses unique energy challenges. NREL works directly with Tribes to find solutions that address their self-defined energy priorities, challenges, and goals.

Alaska native village↗
DOE OSTI2025

Master Services Agreement - Flexible Feeder/Distribution System Support: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

PGE will engage NREL on a broad range of projects related to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the utility's operations. This portfolio of work could include projects focused on DER adoption models, advanced distribution management system (ADMS) and distributed energy management system (DERMS) design, DER dispatch strategy development, and DER valuation framework development. Additional topics could include long-term energy planning, renewable energy, energy efficiency and demand-side management. As well as technology evaluations and design guidance for building retrofits and new construction projects, energy and energy infrastructure planning, policies, and markets (and their analysis), energy storage, energy security and resilience (including energy system-related cybersecurity), transportation and mobility, technology integration analysis. Additionally, other assistance as requested by PGE consistent with NREL’s expertise.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy: Preventing and Responding to Extreme Events

This presentation discusses the aftermath of Hurricane Maria's landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20, 2017. Maria incapacitated Puerto Rico's power systems, leaving the entire island without electricity and access to fresh water. Some parts are still recovering years later. A resilient electric grid is vital to Puerto Rico's security, economy, and way of life.

demand impacts↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Is Data Analysis?

A quick guide to understand your data and use it to tell compelling stories. Data analysis helps develop insights for research projects, planning interventions, or systematic information gathering. This guide highlights important aspects of the data analysis process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Detailed Vehicle Simulation Process to Support CAFE and CO 2 Standards (MY 2021–2026 Final Rule Analysis)

In 1975, Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), requiring standards for corporate average fuel economy (CAFE), and charging the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) with the establishment and enforcement of these standards. The Secretary of Transportation has delegated these responsibilities to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). NHTSA has contracted the DOT Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) to provide analytical support for NHTSA’s regulatory and analytical activities related to fuel economy standards. Unlike long-standing safety and criteria pollutant emissions standards, fuel economy standards apply to manufacturers’ overall fleets rather than to individual vehicle models. In developing the standards, NHTSA made use of the CAFE Compliance and Effects Modeling System (the “CAFE model”), which was developed by DOT’s Volpe Center for the 2005-2007 CAFE rulemaking and has been continually updated since. The model is the primary tool used by the agency to evaluate potential CAFE stringency levels by applying technologies incrementally to each manufacturer’s fleet until the requirements under consideration are met. The CAFE model relies on numerous technology-related and economic inputs such as market forecasts and technology cost and effectiveness estimates; these inputs are categorized by vehicle classification, technology synergies, phase-in rates, cost learning curve adjustments, and technology “decision trees.” The Volpe Center assists NHTSA in the development of the engineering and economic inputs to the CAFE model by analyzing the application of potential technologies to the current automotive industry vehicle fleet to determine the feasibility of future CAFE standards, the associated costs, and the benefits of the standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗