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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Interactive Rotated Object Detection for Novel Class Detection in Remotely Sensed Imagery

In this paper we propose IRTR-DETR an Interactive and Real-Time Rotated DEtection TRansformer that extends IRTDETR to predict rotated bounding boxes. IRTR-DETR maintains the Human-In-The-Loop (HIL) workflow of IRTDETR but introduces rotation-aware heads for improved detection of objects with arbitrary orientations. Similarly to IRTDETR IRTR-DETR can be trained with a small labeled sample set in an interactive setting but we show that it can also be pretrained on related but not identical data--such as a building damage dataset--before being applied to tasks like identifying buildings under construction. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on the publicly available Tiny-DOTA and xBD dataset as well as two study-cases on proprietary datasets of greenhouses and houses under construction ("waffle homes"). Detecting greenhouses is highly relevant in the context of damage assessment while "waffle homes" aid understanding typical floorplans and building codes in different areas both thereby supporting population modeling emergency response and policy planning. Our method outperforms the state of the art in interactive rotated object detection on the Tiny-DOTA dataset by 5.7 percent and improves upon the non interactive RTDETR by 7.85 to 19.39 percent (depending on the number of provided samples) while maintaining its real-time efficiency.

Burges, Marvin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000312690769)↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Terra-Populus v0.1: A Python Library for LandScan High-Definition Population Analysis and Modeling

The terra-populus library is designed for use by the LandScan HD technical team, offering a streamlined set of tools for generating and updating LandScan HD datasets from foundational building-level data, referred to as 'molecules,' provided by the building-level attribution team. This document serves as the primary technical documentation for terra-populus. Version 0.1 of the library includes the core modeling components necessary for LandScan HD production. It enables the generation of the LandScan HD Baseline dataset as well as corresponding confidence measures for the occupancy rates used. Parameters have been included for incorporating damaged building indicators and changes in population, to faciliate the creation of rapid updates for LandScan HD. Future iterations of terra-populus will introduce tools for creating a confidence index, and quantifying and propagating uncertainty, facilitating the creation of probabilistic LandScan HD outputs. This report provides an overview of the tools available in the library and the corresponding code implementations. One of the key advancements implemented in terra-populus is a redefinition of the atomic modeling unit for LandScan HD. Traditionally, the LandScan HD vector analytical framework has generated population estimates at the building sub-component (molecule) level. However, terra-populus adopts a building-level modeling approach. This shift is an operational decision aimed at aligning LandScan HD outputs with confidence measures, which are computed and validated at the building level (confidence measures are not included in this version of terra-populus, aside from those associated with the occupancy rates). Additional advancements to the LandScan HD modeling, as implemented by terra-populus, include a minimum population value parameter and an auto assignment of building floor counts. The population minimum value was implemented to prevent buildings and subsequent LandScan HD pixels that contained small values that may not rasterize in production. An 'auto' value has been included as a method for dealing with buildings lacking floor count information, where it is the average floor count of all other buildings with a residential building use type tag. The logic behind this is to remain consistent with the current logic employed for dealing with building use type null instances, where a null use type is defaulted to residential since it is the most common building type. The auto logic is intended to apply the most common building floor count of the most common type of buildings. The tools provided in terra-populus represent a significant step forward in improving the efficiency, reproducibility, and transparency of the LandScan HD modeling process. As the library evolves, it will continue to serve as a foundational resource for high-resolution population modeling.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Scalable Contact Network Generation from Population Data

Modeling the contacts among a population is critical to understanding the dynamics of a disease outbreak. Contact networks, where nodes are individuals and edges are contacts among them, are used to represent these complex individual-level interactions. In this work, we are given the daily activity schedules of an urban population that represent the activity location and time of individuals in a population during a single twenty four hour period over multiple days. Using collocation to determine contact between individuals, our goal is to extract hourly contact networks from large-scale activity data. We improve upon the existing adjacency matrix-based method by implementing our custom sparse matrix multiplication algorithm. Starting with a Python implementation, we achieve a 1600x speed up in the computation with a fast custom designed sparse matrix multiplier algorithm implemented in the C++ language. This work is central to future parallel designs of the problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Decentralized Approach for Modeling Organized Convection Based on Thermal Populations on Microgrids

Abstract In this study, a spectral model for convective transport is coupled to a thermal population model on a two‐dimensional horizontal “microgrid,” covering the typical gridbox size of general circulation models. The goal is to explore new ways of representing impacts of spatial organization in cumulus cloud fields. The thermals are considered the smallest building block of convection, with thermal life cycle and movement represented through binomial functions. Thermals interact through two simple rules, reflecting pulsating growth and environmental deformation. Long‐lived thermal clusters thus form on the microgrid, exhibiting scale growth and spacing that represent simple forms of spatial organization and memory. Size distributions of cluster number are diagnosed from the microgrid through an online clustering algorithm, and provided as input to a spectral multiplume eddy‐diffusivity mass flux scheme. This yields a decentralized transport system, in that the thermal clusters acting as independent but interacting nodes that carry information about spatial structure. The main objectives of this study are (a) to seek proof of concept of this approach, and (b) to gain insight into impacts of spatial organization on convective transport. Single‐column model experiments demonstrate satisfactory skill in reproducing two observed cases of continental shallow convection. Metrics expressing self‐organization and spatial organization match well with large‐eddy simulation results. We find that in this coupled system, spatial organization impacts convective transport primarily through the scale break in the size distribution of cluster number. The rooting of saturated plumes in the subcloud mixed layer plays a key role in this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A hidden Markov model for population-level cervical cancer screening data

The Cancer Registry of Norway has been administrating a national cervical cancer screening program since 1992 by coordinating triennial cytology exam screenings for the female population between 25 and 69 years of age. Up to 80% of cancers are prevented through mass screening, but this comes at the expense of considerable screening activity and leads to overtreatment of clinically asymptomatic precancers. Here, we present a continuous-time, time-inhomogeneous hidden Markov model which was developed to understand the screening process and cervical cancer carcinogenesis in detail. By leveraging 1.7 million individual's multivariate time-series of medical exams performed over a 25-year period, we simultaneously estimate all model parameters. We show that an age-dependent model reflects the Norwegian screening program by comparing empirical survival curves from observed registry data and data simulated from the proposed model. The model can be generalized to include more detailed individual-level covariates as well as new types of screening exams. By utilizing individual screening histories and covariate data, the proposed model shows potential for improving strategies for cancer screening programs by personalizing recommended screening intervals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Popnet : computer vision based deep learning model for forecasting gridded population

Here, this study introduces Popnet, a deep learning model for forecasting 1 km-gridded populations, integrating U-Net, ConvLSTM, a Spatial Autocorrelation module and deep ensemble methods. Using spatial variables and population data from 2000 to 2020, Popnet predicts South Korea’s population trends by age groups (under 14, 15-64 and over 65) up to 2040. In validation, it outperforms traditional machine learning and state-of-the-art computer vision models. The output of this model discovered significant polarisation: population growth in urban areas, especially the capital region, and severe depopulation in rural areas. Popnet is a robust tool for offering significant insights to policymakers and related stakeholders about the detailed future population, which allows them to establish detailed, localised planning and resource allocations.

computer vision↗
DOE OSTI2023

DSPS: Differentiable stellar population synthesis

ABSTRACT Models of stellar population synthesis (SPS) are the fundamental tool that relates the physical properties of a galaxy to its spectral energy distribution (SED). In this paper, we present DSPS: a python package for SPS. All of the functionality in DSPS is implemented natively in the JAX library for automatic differentiation, and so our predictions for galaxy photometry are fully differentiable, and directly inherit the performance benefits of JAX, including portability onto GPUs. DSPS also implements several novel features, such as i) a flexible empirical model for stellar metallicity that incorporates correlations with stellar age, ii) support for the Diffstar model that provides a physically-motivated connection between the star formation history of a galaxy (SFH) and the mass assembly of its underlying dark matter halo. We detail a set of theoretical techniques for using autodiff to calculate gradients of predictions for galaxy SEDs with respect to SPS parameters that control a range of physical effects, including SFH, stellar metallicity, nebular emission, and dust attenuation. When forward modelling the colours of a synthetic galaxy population, we find that DSPS can provide a factor of 5 speed-up over standard SPS codes on a CPU, and a factor of 300-400 on a modern GPU. When coupled with gradient-based techniques for optimization and inference, DSPS makes it practical to conduct expansive likelihood analyses of simulation-based models of the galaxy–halo connection that fully forward model galaxy spectra and photometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stellar Mass and Stellar Mass-to-light Ratio–Color Relations for Low Surface Brightness Galaxies

We estimate the stellar mass for a sample of low surface brightness galaxies (LSBGs) by fitting their multiband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to the stellar population synthesis model. The derived stellar masses (log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙}) span from 7.1 to 11.1, with a mean of log M {sub *}/M {sub ⊙} = 8.5, which is lower than that for normal galaxies. The stellar mass-to-light ratio (γ*) in each band varies little with the absolute magnitude but increases with higher M {sub *}. This trend of γ* with M {sub *} is even stronger in bluer bands. In addition, the γ* for our LSBGs slightly declines from the r band to the longer-wavelength bands. The log γ{sub ∗}{sup j} (j = g, r, i, and z) have relatively tight relations with optical colors of g − r and g − i. Compared with several representative γ*–color relations (MLCRs) from the literature, our MLCRs based on LSBG data are consistently among those literature MLCRs previously defined on diverse galaxy samples, and the existing minor differences between the MLCRs are caused by the differences in the SED model ingredients (including initial mass function, star formation history, and stellar population model), line fitting techniques, galaxy samples, and photometric zero-point, rather than the galaxy surface brightness itself, which distinguishes LSBGs from high surface brightness galaxies. Our LSBGs would be very likely to follow those representative MLCRs previously defined in diverse galaxy populations, if those main ingredients were taken into account.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Novel Analytical Population Tumor Control Probability Model Includes Cell Density and Volume Variations: Application to Canine Brain Tumor

Tumor control probability (TCP) models based on Poisson statistics characterize the distribution of surviving clonogens. Thus enabling the calculation of TCP for individuals. To mathematically describe clinically observed survival data of patient cohorts it is necessary to extend the Poisson TCP model. This is typically done by either incorporating variations of model parameters or by using an empirical logistic model. The purpose of this work is the development of an analytical population TCP model by mechanistic extension of the Possion model.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Advances and challenges in CO2 foam technologies for enhanced oil recovery in carbonate reservoirs

Utilization of surfactants for generating foam has the potential for fluid-mobility control during CO2 flooding processes, leading to improved oil recovery. This manuscript is a review of the most important aspects for the design of CO2-foams with mobility control in carbonate reservoirs, including recent advances in novel surfactants and analytical techniques for analysis of surfactant adsorption on carbonate minerals and their thermal stability. Several key parameters and properties regarding foam transport in porous media are reviewed such as, the minimum pressure gradient required for foam generation, the effects of the partition coefficient of a CO2-soluble surfactant on foam transport in rock cores, visualization of foam flow by either microfluidic or PET/CT imaging processes in heterogeneous or fractured systems and the effect of oil on foam transport under reservoir conditions. Also are discussed the most recent advances of two major foam modeling methods, including the semi-empirical STARS foam model and the population balance model, as well as CO2 foam pilot tests and the factors governing their successes.

Jian, Guoqing↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Dark Matter Content of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies: Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor

The Milky Way Survey of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) has so far observed three classical dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs): Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor. Based on the observed line-of-sight velocities and metallicities of their member stars, we apply the axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Multi-Gaussian Expansion modeling (JAM) approach to recover their inner dark matter distributions. In particular, both the traditional single-population Jeans model and the multiple population chemodynamical model are adopted. With the chemodynamical model, we divide member stars of each dSph into metal-rich and metal-poor populations. The metal-rich populations are more centrally concentrated and dynamically colder, featuring lower velocity dispersion profiles than the metal-poor populations. We find a diversity of the inner density slopes γ of dark matter halos, with the best constraints by the single-population or chemodynamical models consistent with each other. The inner density slopes are $0.7{1}_{-0.35}^{+0.34}$, $0.2{6}_{-0.12}^{+0.22}$, and $0.3{3}_{-0.16}^{+0.20}$ for Draco, Sextans, and Ursa Minor, respectively. We also present the measured astrophysical J and D factors of the three dSphs. Our results indicate that the study of the dark matter content of dSphs through stellar kinematics is still subject to uncertainties behind both the methodology and the observed data, through comparisons with previous measurements and datasets.

Dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nested active learning for efficient model contextualization and parameterization: pathway to generating simulated populations using multi-scale computational models

There is increasing interest in the use of mechanism-based multi-scale computational models (such as agent-based models (ABMs)) to generate simulated clinical populations in order to discover and evaluate potential diagnostic and therapeutic modalities. The description of the environment in which a biomedical simulation operates (model context) and parameterization of internal model rules (model content) requires the optimization of a large number of free parameters. In this work, we utilize a nested active learning (AL) workflow to efficiently parameterize and contextualize an ABM of systemic inflammation used to examine sepsis. Contextual parameter space was examined using four parameters external to the model’s rule set. The model’s internal parameterization, which represents gene expression and associated cellular behaviors, was explored through the augmentation or inhibition of signaling pathways for 12 signaling mediators associated with inflammation and wound healing. We have implemented a nested AL approach in which the clinically relevant (CR) model environment space for a given internal model parameterization is mapped using a small Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The outer AL level workflow is a larger ANN that uses AL to efficiently regress the volume and centroid location of the CR space given by a single internal parameterization. We have reduced the number of simulations required to efficiently map the CR parameter space of this model by approximately 99%. In addition, we have shown that more complex models with a larger number of variables may expect further improvements in efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Utility of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling to Investigate the Impact of Physiological Changes of Pregnancy and Cancer on Oncology Drug Pharmacokinetics

The treatment of cancer during pregnancy remains challenging with knowledge gaps in drug dosage, safety, and efficacy due to the under-representation of this population in clinical trials. Our aim was to investigate physiological changes reported in both pregnancy and cancer populations into a PBPK modeling framework that allows for a more accurate estimation of PK changes in pregnant patients with cancer. Methods: Paclitaxel and docetaxel were selected to validate a population model using clinical data from pregnant patients with cancer. The validated population model was subsequently used to predict the PK of acalabrutinib in pregnant patients with cancer. Results: The Simcyp pregnancy population model reasonably predicted the PK of docetaxel in pregnant patients with cancer, while a modified model that included a 2.5-fold increase in CYP2C8 abundance, consistent with the increased expression during pregnancy, was needed to reasonably predict the PK of paclitaxel in pregnant patients with cancer. Changes in protein binding levels of patients with cancer had a minimal impact on the predicted clearance of paclitaxel and docetaxel. PBPK modeling predicted approximately 60% lower AUC and Cmax for acalabrutinib in pregnant versus non-pregnant patients with cancer. Conclusions: Our results suggest that PBPK modeling is a promising approach to investigate the effects of pregnancy and cancer on the PK of oncology drugs and potentially inform dosing for pregnant patients with cancer. Further evaluation and refinement of the population model are needed for pregnant patients with cancer with additional compounds and clinical PK data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical investigation of nonequilibrium electron effects on the collisional ionization rate in the collisional-radiative model

In this study, the interplay of kinetic electron physics and atomic processes in ultrashort laser-plasma interactions provides a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the electron energy distribution on plasma properties. Notably, nonequilibrium electrons play a vital role in collisional ionization, influencing ionization degrees and spectra. This paper introduces a computational model that integrates the physics of kinetic electrons and atomic processes, utilizing a Boltzmann equation for nonequilibrium electrons and a collisional-radiative model for atomic state populations. The model is used to investigate the influence of nonequilibrium electrons on collisional ionization rates and its effect on the population distribution, as observed in a widely known experiment. The study reveals a significant nonequilibrium electron presence during XFEL-matter interactions, profoundly affecting collisional ionization rates in the gas plasma, thereby necessitating careful consideration of the Collisional-Radiative model applied to such systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗