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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

Abstract Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Malpeli, Katherine C. (ORCID:000000030780918X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Short-wavelength-sensitive 2 (Sws2) visual photopigment models combined with atomistic molecular simulations to predict spectral peaks of absorbance

For many species, vision is one of the most important sensory modalities for mediating essential tasks that include navigation, predation and foraging, predator avoidance, and numerous social behaviors. The vertebrate visual process begins when photons of the light interact with rod and cone photoreceptors that are present in the neural retina. Vertebrate visual photopigments are housed within these photoreceptor cells and are sensitive to a wide range of wavelengths that peak within the light spectrum, the latter of which is a function of the type of chromophore used and how it interacts with specific amino acid residues found within the opsin protein sequence. Minor differences in the amino acid sequences of the opsins are known to lead to large differences in the spectral peak of absorbance (i.e. the λ max value). In our prior studies, we developed a new approach that combined homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulations to gather structural information associated with chromophore conformation, then used it to generate statistical models for the accurate prediction of λ max values for photopigments derived from Rh1 and Rh2 amino acid sequences. In the present study, we test our novel approach to predict the λ max of phylogenetically distant Sws2 cone opsins. To build a model that can predict the λ max using our approach presented in our prior studies, we selected a spectrally-diverse set of 11 teleost Sws2 photopigments for which both amino acid sequence information and experimentally measured λ max values are known. The final first-order regression model, consisting of three terms associated with chromophore conformation, was sufficient to predict the λ max of Sws2 photopigments with high accuracy. This study further highlights the breadth of our approach in reliably predicting λ max values of Sws2 cone photopigments, evolutionary-more distant from template bovine RH1, and provided mechanistic insights into the role of known spectral tuning sites.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Habitat use by female desert tortoises suggests tradeoffs between resource use and risk avoidance

Animals may select habitat to maximize the benefits of foraging on growth and reproduction, while balancing competing factors like the risk of predation or mortality from other sources. Variation in the distribution of food resources may lead animals to forage at times or in places that carry greater predation risk, with individuals in poor quality habitats expected to take greater risks while foraging. We studied Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) in habitats with variable forage availability to determine if risk aversion in their selection of habitat relative was related to abundance of forage. As a measure of risk, we examined tortoise surface activity and mortality. We also compared tortoise body size and body condition between habitats with ample forage plants and those with less forage plants. Tortoises from low forage habitats selected areas where more annual plants were nutritious herbaceous flowering plants but did not favor areas of greater perennial shrub cover that could shelter them or their burrows. In contrast, tortoises occupying high forage habitats showed no preference for forage characteristics, but used burrows associated with more abundant and larger perennial shrubs. Tortoises in high forage habitats were larger and active above ground more often but did not have better body condition. Mortality was four times higher for females occupying low forage habitat than those in high forage habitat. Our results are consistent with the idea that tortoises may minimize mortality risk where food resources are high, but may accept some tradeoff of greater mortality risk in order to forage optimally when food resources are limiting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MontePy: a Python library for reading, editing, and writing MCNP input files.

The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code is a highly capable and accurate code with a long legacy. MCNP uses the Monte Carlo simulation process to simulate the path of particles (e.g., neutrons, photons, charged particles, etc.), and their interaction with materials. It is widely used in nuclear engineering, high-energy physics, and other fields. Its origins in the mid-twentieth century predate many modern software conventions. MCNP users provide an input file to MCNP, which it then uses to create an internal representation of the simulation problem. These input files originally had to be stored as punchcard decks, and the user manual still uses the terminology of cards and decks, despite moving beyond punchcards. MCNP predates nearly all modern human readable markup or data serialization languages, such as the extensible Markup Language (XML), the Standard Generalized Markup Language (SGML), YAML (YAML Ain’t Markup Language), and Javascript Object Notation (JSON). Due to this, MCNP uses an entirely custom defined syntax language for its input, making off-the-shelf libraries for XML, YAML, and JSON impossible to use for scripting various operations on MCNP input files (Kulesza et al., 2022).

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large Game Distribution Camera Study at Los Alamos National Laboratory [Poster]

The unique habitats at the Laboratory support a diverse community of wildlife. The habitat types that include Pinon Juniper, Ponderosa Pine, and Mixed-conifer forests each provide different resources important for a variety of species. Wildlife monitoring for large game animals can be challenging because they avoid interactions with humans, and prefer undeveloped areas. This study was conducted to analyze the distribution of predators and other game animals seasonally across the Laboratory. The data gathered will be used to make recommendations regarding wildlife management for conservation and protection. Utilizing game cameras to remotely monitor wildlife was determined to be the most effective, noninvasive method to gather the necessary data. As camera technology has advanced, game cameras have become adequate for documenting individuals, and are commonly used in wildlife studies on predation, abundance, occupancy, diversity, and endangered species detection. Twenty cameras were placed across the LANL landscape using a modified systematic sampling design. They were deployed in February 2018 and retrieved in January 2019, thus each camera sampled for one full year. All images were reviewed and the species, number, age, and sex of all animals in the photo were recorded. Here we present data for the most abundant species encountered: deer, elk, coyote, bear, bobcat, mountain lion, and fox respectively. The data were summarized by species and season. Future work will include occupancy modelling for each species. This will allow the development of heat maps showing species distributions across the Laboratory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Large Game Distribution Camera Study at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The unique habitats at the Laboratory support a diverse community of wildlife. The habitat types that include Pinon Juniper, Ponderosa Pine, and Mixed-conifer forests each provide different resources important for a variety of species. Wildlife monitoring for large game animals can be challenging because they avoid interactions with humans, and prefer undeveloped areas. This study was conducted to analyze the distribution of predators and other game animals seasonally across the Laboratory. This research informs decisions regarding wildlife management recommendations for conservation and protection. This study utilized game cameras to remotely monitor wildlife. As camera technology has advanced, game cameras have become adequate for documenting individuals, and are commonly used in wildlife studies on predation, abundance, occupancy, diversity, and endangered species detection. Twenty cameras were placed across the LANL landscape using a modified systematic sampling design. They were deployed in February 2018 and retrieved in January 2019, thus each camera sampled for one full year. All images were reviewed and the species, number, age, and sex of all animals in the photo were recorded. Here we present data for the most abundant species encountered: deer, elk, coyote, bear, bobcat, mountain lion, and fox respectively. The data were summarized by species and season. Future work will include occupancy modelling for each species. This will allow the development of heat maps showing species distributions across the Laboratory.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From viruses to protists: temperature response of the neglected components of microbial controls on peatland nutrient cycling

The response of plant-associated microbial communities to rising temperatures likely plays a key role in global Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N) biogeochemical cycles. Mosses of the genus Sphagnum, in particular, sequester 25% of all terrestrial C as recalcitrant peat. However, their ability to sequester C is mediated by interactions with microbes that fix N and pass it to the moss to grow in otherwise oligotrophic systems. Two important biotic controls on this processes are likely to respond to rising temperatures –predation by protists and infections by viruses– but whether and how this might occur is not well understood. This proposal addressed these questions using a combination of genomics and mathematical modeling with both field data from whole-ecosystem warming experiments, and laboratory-based microcosm experiments. We have discovered 1) mechanistic links between cell traits and thermal performance in protists, which 2) enabled predictions from populations to ecosystems, 3) we have identified eco-phenotypic feedbacks that determine protist–bacterial predator–prey dynamics, 4) have documented concomitant compositional and trait shifts in protist communities with warming in the field, 5) revealed consistent interactive effects of temperature and nutrients on bacterial and protist communities; 6) characterized the Sphagnum virome, and 7) made modeling predictions on its implications for thermal responses of microbial communities in peatlands globally. This award also substantially strengthened U.S. scientific capacity and workforce development.

Gibert, Jean Philippe [Duke University]↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effect of Size on Postrelease Survival of Head-Started Mojave Desert Tortoises

Abstract Captive-rearing conservation programs focus primarily on maximizing postrelease survival. Survival increases with size in a variety of taxa, often leading to the use of enhanced size as a means to minimize postrelease losses. Head-starting is a specific captive-rearing approach used to accelerate growth in captivity prior to release in the wild. We explored the effect of size at release, among other potential factors, on postrelease survival in head-started Mojave desert tortoises Gopherus agassizii. Juvenile tortoises were reared for different durations of captivity (2–7 y) and under varying husbandry protocols, resulting in a wide range of juvenile sizes (68–145 mm midline carapace length) at release. We released all animals (n = 78) in the Mojave National Preserve, California, United States, on 25 September 2018. Release size and surface activity were the only significant predictors of fate during the first year postrelease. Larger sized head-starts had higher predicted survival rates when compared with smaller individuals. This trend was also observed in animals of the same age but reared under different protocols, suggesting that accelerating the growth of head-started tortoises may increase efficiency of head-starting programs without decreasing postrelease success. Excluding five missing animals, released head-starts had 82.2% survival in their first year postrelease (September 2018–September 2019), with all mortalities resulting from predation. No animals with >90-mm midline carapace length were predated by ravens. Our findings suggest the utility of head-starting may be substantially improved by incorporating indoor rearing to accelerate growth. Target release size for head-started chelonians will vary among head-start programs based on release site conditions and project-specific constraints.

Biodiversity & Conservation↗
NASA NTRS1995

Disk tides and accretion runaway

It is suggested that tidal interaction of an accreting planetary embryo with the gaseous preplanetary disk may provide a mechanism to breach the so-called runaway limit during the formation of the giant planet cores. The disk tidal torque converts a would-be shepherding object into a 'predator,' which can continue to cannibalize the planetesimal disk. This is more likely to occur in the giant planet region than in the terrestrial zone, providing a natural cause for Jupiter to predate the inner planets and form within the O(10(exp 7) yr) lifetime of the nebula.

Ward, William R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Accumulation of Dissolved DMSP by Marine Bacteria and its Degradation Via Bacterivory

Several bacterial isolates enriched from seawater using complex media were able to accumulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) from media into cells over several hours without degrading it. Uptake only occurred in metabolically active cells, and was repressed in some strains by the presence of additional carbon sources. Accumulation was also more rapid in osmotically-stressed cells, suggesting DMSP is used as an osmotic solute. Uptake could be blocked by inhibitors of active transport systems (2,4-dinitrophenol, azide, arsenate) and of protein synthesis (chloramphenicol). Some structural analogs such as glycine betaine and S-methyl methionine also blocked DMSP uptake, suggesting that the availability of alternate organic osmolytes may influence DMSP uptake. Stresses such as freezing, heating, or osmotic down shock resulted in partial release of DMSP back to the medium. One strain which contained a DMSP-lyase was also able to accumulate DMSP, and DMS was only produced in the absence of alternate carbon sources. Bacteria containing DMSP were prepared as prey for bacterivorous ciliates and flagellates, to examine the fate of the DMSP during grazing. In all cases, predators metabolized the DMSP in bacteria. In some cases, DMS was produced, but it is not clear if this was due to the predators or to associated bacteria in the non-axenic grazer cultures. Bacterivores may influence DMSP cycling by either modulating populations of DMSP-metabolizing bacteria, or by metabolizing DMSP accumulated by bacterial prey.

Wolfe, Gordon V.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Co-evolution for Problem Simplification

This paper explores a co-evolutionary approach applicable to difficult problems with limited failure/success performance feedback. Like familiar "predator-prey" frameworks this algorithm evolves two populations of individuals - the solutions (predators) and the problems (prey). The approach extends previous work by rewarding only the problems that match their difficulty to the level of solut,ion competence. In complex problem domains with limited feedback, this "tractability constraint" helps provide an adaptive fitness gradient that, effectively differentiates the candidate solutions. The algorithm generates selective pressure toward the evolution of increasingly competent solutions by rewarding solution generality and uniqueness and problem tractability and difficulty. Relative (inverse-fitness) and absolute (static objective function) approaches to evaluating problem difficulty are explored and discussed. On a simple control task, this co-evolutionary algorithm was found to have significant advantages over a genetic algorithm with either a static fitness function or a fitness function that changes on a hand-tuned schedule.

Haith, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ground Truthing Orbital Clay Mineral Observations with the APXS Onboard Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity

NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has been exploring approximately 22 km diameter Endeavour crater since 2011. Its rim segments predate the Hesperian-age Burns formation and expose Noachian-age material, which is associated with orbital Fe3+-Mg-rich clay mineral observations [1,2]. Moving to an orders of magnitude smaller instrumental field of view on the ground, the clay minerals were challenging to pinpoint on the basis of geochemical data because they appear to be the result of near-isochemical weathering of the local bedrock [3,4]. However, the APXS revealed a more complex mineral story as fracture fills and so-called red zones appear to contain more Al-rich clay minerals [5,6], which had not been observed from orbit. These observations are important to constrain clay mineral formation processes. More detail will be added as Opportunity is heading into her 10th extended mission, during which she will investigate Noachian bedrock that predates Endeavour crater, study sedimentary rocks inside Endeavour crater, and explore a fluid-carved gully. ESA's ExoMars rover will land on Noachian-age Oxia Planum where abundant Fe3+-Mg-rich clay minerals have been observed from orbit, but the story will undoubtedly become more complex once seen from the ground.

Schroeder, C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Constraining the Thickness of Polar Ice Deposits on Mercury Using the Mercury Laser Altimeter and Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Radar-bright deposits at the poles of Mercury are located in permanently shadowed regions, which pro- vide thermally stable environments for hosting and retaining water ice on the surface or in the near sub- surface for geologic timescales. While the areal distribution of these radar-bright deposits is well characterized, their thickness, and thus their total mass and volume, remain poorly constrained. Here we derive thickness estimates for selected water-ice deposits using small, simple craters visible within the permanently shadowed, radar-bright deposits. We examine two endmember scenarios: in Case I, these craters predate the emplacement of the ice, and in Case II, these craters postdate the emplacement of the ice. In Case I, we find the difference between estimated depths of the original unfilled craters and the measured depths of the craters to find the estimated infill of material. The average estimated infilled material for 9 craters assumed to be overlain with water ice is ∼41 +30 −14 m, where 1 −σ standard error of the mean is reported as uncertainty. Reported uncertainties are for statistical errors only. Additional systematic uncertainty may stem from georeferencing the images and topographic datasets, from the radial accuracy of the altimeter measurements, or from assumptions in our models including (1) ice is flat in the bowl- shaped crater and (2) there is negligible ice at the crater rims. In Case II, we derive crater excavation depths to investigate the thickness of the ice layer that may have been penetrated by the impact. While the absence of excavated regolith associated with the small craters observed suggests that impacts generally do not penetrate through the ice deposit, the spatial resolution and complex illumination geometry of images may limit the observations. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether the small craters in this study penetrate through the ice deposit, and thus Case II does not provide a constraint on the ice thickness. For Mercury’s polar deposits, we argue that Case I of the small craters predating the emplacement of the ice deposits is more likely, given other geologic evidence that suggests that these ice deposits are relatively young. Using the ice thickness estimates from Case I to calculate the total amount of water ice currently contained in Mercury’s polar deposits results in a value of ∼10 14 –10 15 kg. This is equivalent to ∼100–1000 km 3 ice in volume. This volume of water ice is consistent with delivery via micrometeorite bombardment, Jupiter-family comets, or potentially a single impactor.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Habitat Suitability of Mustelid Species to Guide Detection Dog Surveys for Contaminants Monitoring, via Collected Scats in River Systems of Western Montana

Environmental contaminants are becoming increasingly prevalent in riverine ecosystems. The status of contaminants in western Montana’s relatively pristine river systems is largely unknown. Monitoring for heavy metals, brominated flame-retardants (BFRs), and pharmaceuticals is important due to their negative effects on ecosystems. Exposure to these contaminants can have significant endocrine, neurological, and reproductive effects. Contaminants easily travel up the food chain and bioaccumulate in apex predators. As predators with a largely aquatic diet, American mink (Mustela vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health and the status of contaminants. Analysis of scat from these species is a noninvasive method to measure contaminant levels, and detection dogs from Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) have been used to locate these scat samples. To aid in the search of these samples, habitat suitability models were created for mink and otter for the years 2013-2020 and projected to 2040 using the random forest algorithm in the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). Predictor variable data were acquired from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Within these models, the most important variable for mink and otter habitat was distance to river. Suitable habitat also corresponded with emergent herbaceous land cover and deeper river locations. These habitat suitability models will inform sampling site section for further contaminant analysis.

Anna Winter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bounds on edge shear layer persistence while approaching the density limit

This paper details the theory of edge shear layer collapse as the density approaches the Greenwald density limit. It significantly extends earlier work, which was restricted in applicability. The zonal shear flow screening length is calculated for banana, plateau and Pfirsch–Schluter regimes. Poloidal field scaling persists in the plateau regime. Neoclassical screening and drift wave–zonal flow dynamics are combined in a theory, which is then reduced to a predator–prey model. Zonal noise, due to incoherent mode coupling, is retained. The threshold condition for edge shear layer collapse is computed, and linked to a critical value of the dimensionless parameter ${\rho }_{\mathrm{s}}/\sqrt{{\rho }_{\mathrm{s}\mathrm{c}}{L}_{n}}$. Here ${\rho }_{s}$ is the ion sound radius, ${\rho }_{sc}$ is the zonal flow screening length and ${L}_{n}$ is the equilibrium density scale length. The limiting initial edge density for shear layer collapse is derived and shown to scale favorably with the plasma current. Here, the results are discussed in light of the density limit and Ohmic phenomenology.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biological Consequences of Marine Energy Development on Marine Animals

Marine energy devices harness power from attributes of ocean water to form a sustainable energy source. Knowledge gaps remain about whether marine energy systems can affect the environment, adding another threat to animal populations and habitats already under pressure from climate change and anthropogenic activities. To date, potential environmental effects have been studied under the scope of stressor–receptor interactions, where moving parts of, or emissions from, a system could harm the animals, habitats, and natural processes. While crucial for understanding effects and identifying knowledge gaps, this approach misses a holistic view of what animals may experience in the presence of marine energy systems. We look at six biological consequences and forces that drive the health of an animal population and the effects expected from marine energy development: success of early life stages; changes in competitive capabilities; growth and survival based on food availability; susceptibility to predators; injury or death; and reproductive success. We use case studies to develop this approach, focusing on a variety of marine animals. An approximate level of risk is assigned for each interaction based on the biological consequences. This work highlights the need to examine the effects of marine energy development on animal populations within their natural habitats.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Neurosensory and Sinus Evolution as Tyrannosauroid Dinosaurs Developed Giant Size: Insight from the Endocranial Anatomy of Bistahieversor sealeyi

Tyrannosaurus rex and other tyrannosaurid dinosaurs were apex predators during the latest Cretaceous, which combined giant size and advanced neurosensory systems. Computed tomography (CT) data have shown that tyrannosaurids had a trademark system of a large brain, large olfactory bulbs, elongate cochlear ducts, and expansive endocranial sinuses surrounding the brain and sense organs. Older, smaller tyrannosauroid relatives of tyrannosaurids developed some, but not all, of these features, raising the hypothesis that tyrannosaurid-style brains evolved before the enlarged tyrannosaurid-style sinuses, which might have developed only with large body size. This has been difficult to test, however, because little is known about the brains and sinuses of the first large-bodied tyrannosauroids, which evolved prior to Tyrannosauridae. Here we present the first CT data for one of these species, Bistahieversor sealeyi from New Mexico. Bistahieversor had a nearly identical brain and sinus system as tyrannosaurids like Tyrannosaurus, including a large brain, large olfactory bulbs, reduced cerebral hemispheres, and optic lobes, a small tab-like flocculus, long and straight cochlear ducts, and voluminous sinuses that include a supraocciptal recess, subcondyar sinus, and an anterior tympanic recess that exits the braincase via a prootic fossa. When characters are plotted onto tyrannosauroid phylogeny, there is a two-stage sequence in which features of the tyrannosaurid-style brain evolved first (in smaller, nontyrannosaurid species like Timurlengia), followed by features of the tyrannosaurid-style sinuses (in the first large-bodied nontyrannosaurid tyrannosauroids like Bistahieversor). This suggests that the signature tyrannosaurid sinus system evolved in concert with large size, whereas the brain did not.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗