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NASA NTRS1990

Predictive sensor method and apparatus

A predictive algorithm is used to determine, in near real time, the steady state response of a slow responding sensor such as hydrogen gas sensor of the type which produces an output current proportional to the partial pressure of the hydrogen present. A microprocessor connected to the sensor samples the sensor output at small regular time intervals and predicts the steady state response of the sensor in response to a perturbation in the parameter being sensed, based on the beginning and end samples of the sensor output for the current sample time interval.

Nail, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Telescopic limiting magnitudes

The prediction of the magnitude of the faintest star visible through a telescope by a visual observer is a difficult problem in physiology. Many prediction formulas have been advanced over the years, but most do not even consider the magnification used. Here, the prediction algorithm problem is attacked with two complimentary approaches: (1) First, a theoretical algorithm was developed based on physiological data for the sensitivity of the eye. This algorithm also accounts for the transmission of the atmosphere and the telescope, the brightness of the sky, the color of the star, the age of the observer, the aperture, and the magnification. (2) Second, 314 observed values for the limiting magnitude were collected as a test of the formula. It is found that the formula does accurately predict the average observed limiting magnitudes under all conditions.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Analysis of Sting Balance Calibration Data Using Optimized Regression Models

Calibration data of a wind tunnel sting balance was processed using a search algorithm that identifies an optimized regression model for the data analysis. The selected sting balance had two moment gages that were mounted forward and aft of the balance moment center. The difference and the sum of the two gage outputs were fitted in the least squares sense using the normal force and the pitching moment at the balance moment center as independent variables. The regression model search algorithm predicted that the difference of the gage outputs should be modeled using the intercept and the normal force. The sum of the two gage outputs, on the other hand, should be modeled using the intercept, the pitching moment, and the square of the pitching moment. Equations of the deflection of a cantilever beam are used to show that the search algorithm s two recommended math models can also be obtained after performing a rigorous theoretical analysis of the deflection of the sting balance under load. The analysis of the sting balance calibration data set is a rare example of a situation when regression models of balance calibration data can directly be derived from first principles of physics and engineering. In addition, it is interesting to see that the search algorithm recommended the same regression models for the data analysis using only a set of statistical quality metrics.

Ulbrich, Norbert↗

NASA NTRS1986

Intelligent information extraction from reflectance spectra Absorption band positions

A multiple high-order derivative analysis algorithm has been developed which can automatically extract absorption band positions from low-quality reflectance spectra with little degredation of accuracy. Overlapping bands with comparable widths and intensities can be resolved whose centers are as close as 0.3-0.5 W, with safer resolution limits of 0.6-1.0 W band center separations suggested for overlapping bands that are dissimilar. The segment length for smoothing is continually adjusted to about 0.5 W to minimize signal distortion, and a spectral pattern recognition algorithm predicts the signal spectrum and calculates approximate W across the spectrum using its second derivative. A single-pass cubic spline is applied to the smoothed data, and a sliding segment sixth-order polynomial is fit to the spectrum, with the length of the segment being continuously locally adjusted to 1.0 W across the spectrum. Good reliability and consistency of the algorithm is demonstrated with application to laboratory and earth-based telescope spectra.

Huguenin, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Machine-z: Rapid Machine-Learned Redshift Indicator for Swift Gamma-Ray Bursts

Studies of high-redshift gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) provide important information about the early Universe such as the rates of stellar collapsars and mergers, the metallicity content, constraints on the re-ionization period, and probes of the Hubble expansion. Rapid selection of high-z candidates from GRB samples reported in real time by dedicated space missions such as Swift is the key to identifying the most distant bursts before the optical afterglow becomes too dim to warrant a good spectrum. Here, we introduce 'machine-z', a redshift prediction algorithm and a 'high-z' classifier for Swift GRBs based on machine learning. Our method relies exclusively on canonical data commonly available within the first few hours after the GRB trigger. Using a sample of 284 bursts with measured redshifts, we trained a randomized ensemble of decision trees (random forest) to perform both regression and classification. Cross-validated performance studies show that the correlation coefficient between machine-z predictions and the true redshift is nearly 0.6. At the same time, our high-z classifier can achieve 80 per cent recall of true high-redshift bursts, while incurring a false positive rate of 20 per cent. With 40 per cent false positive rate the classifier can achieve approximately 100 per cent recall. The most reliable selection of high-redshift GRBs is obtained by combining predictions from both the high-z classifier and the machine-z regressor.

gamma-ray burst: general↗

NASA NTRS1998

The Design and Evaluation of the Lighting Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD)

The design and evaluation of the Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Display (LISDAD). The ultimate goal of the LISDAD system is to quantify the utility of total lightning information in short-term, severe-weather forecasting operations. To this end, scientists from NASA, NWS, and MIT organized an effort to study the relationship of lightning and severe-weather on a storm-by-storm, and even cell-by-cell basis for as many storms as possible near Melbourne, Florida. Melbourne was chosen as it offers a unique combination of high probability of severe weather and proximity to major relevant sensors - specifically: NASA's total lightning mapping system at Kennedy Space Center (the LDAR system at KSC); a NWS/NEXRAD radar (at Melbourne); and a prototype Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS, at Orlando), which obtains cloud-to-ground lightning Information from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and also uses NSSL's Severe Storm Algorithm (NSSL/SSAP) to obtain information about various storm-cell parameters. To assist in realizing this project's goal, an interactive, real-time data processing system (the LISDAD system) has been developed that supports both operational short-term weather forecasting and post facto severe-storm research. Suggestions have been drawn from the operational users (NWS/Melbourne) in the design of the data display and its salient behavior. The initial concept for the users Graphical Situation Display (GSD) was simply to overlay radar data with lightning data, but as the association between rapid upward trends in the total lightning rate and severe weather became evident, the display was significantly redesigned. The focus changed to support the display of time series of storm-parameter data and the automatic recognition of cells that display rapid changes in the total-lightning flash rate. The latter is calculated by grouping discrete LDAR radiation sources into lightning flashes using a time-space association algorithm. Specifically, the GSD presents the user with the Composite Maximum Reflectivity obtained from the NWS/NEXRAD. Superimposed upon this background image are placed small black circles indicating the locations of storm cells identified by the NSSL/SSA. The circles become cyan if lightning is detected within the storm-cell; if the cell has lightning rates indicative of a severe-storm, the circle turns red. This paper will: (1) review the design of LISDAD system; (2) present some examples of its data display; and shown results of the lightning based severe-weather prediction algorithm.

Boldi, B.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Exploring the Model Design Space for Battery Health Management

Battery Health Management (BHM) is a core enabling technology for the success and widespread adoption of the emerging electric vehicles of today. Although battery chemistries have been studied in detail in literature, an accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm has eluded us. Current reliability-based techniques are insufficient to manage the use of such batteries when they are an active power source with frequently varying loads in uncertain environments. The amount of usable charge of a battery for a given discharge profile is not only dependent on the starting state-of-charge (SOC), but also other factors like battery health and the discharge or load profile imposed. This paper presents a Particle Filter (PF) based BHM framework with plug-and-play modules for battery models and uncertainty management. The batteries are modeled at three different levels of granularity with associated uncertainty distributions, encoding the basic electrochemical processes of a Lithium-polymer battery. The effects of different choices in the model design space are explored in the context of prediction performance in an electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) application with emulated flight profiles.

Saha, Bhaskar↗

NASA NTRS1984

Evaluation of a real-time predictive guidance law for landing VTOL aircraft at sea

A piloted simulation evaluation was conducted to assess the merits of a predictive lull/swell guidance law for landing a vertical takeoff and landing aircraft at sea. Two cases were evaluated. The first was performed by the pilot without the aid of the lull/swell guidance indicator, which indicates a landing opportunity. The second was performed in a similar manner with the aid of the guidance indicator. The pilot was instructed to use the guidance indicator only as a landing aid. The results indicated the pilots were able to visually determine ship lulls and swells prior to landing. However, use of the lull/swell guidance resulted in increased pilot confidence in the existence of a landing opportunity, which resulted in significantly shorter hover waiting times prior to landing. The performance of the lull/swell guidance was conservative, in that it forecast the onset of deck lulls and swells later than the pilot could detect them, but with greater reliability and therefore greater pilot confidence. In no instances did the guidance algorithm predict a false ship lull with which the pilot did not agree.

Paulk, C. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Quantitative interpretation of Great Lakes remote sensing data

The paper discusses the quantitative interpretation of Great Lakes remote sensing water quality data. Remote sensing using color information must take into account (1) the existence of many different organic and inorganic species throughout the Great Lakes, (2) the occurrence of a mixture of species in most locations, and (3) spatial variations in types and concentration of species. The radiative transfer model provides a potential method for an orderly analysis of remote sensing data and a physical basis for developing quantitative algorithms. Predictions and field measurements of volume reflectances are presented which show the advantage of using a radiative transfer model. Spectral absorptance and backscattering coefficients for two inorganic sediments are reported.

Shook, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

A microwave systems approach to measuring root zone soil moisture

Computer microwave satellite simulation models were developed and the program was used to test the ability of a coarse resolution passive microwave sensor to measure soil moisture over large areas, and to evaluate the effect of heterogeneous ground covers with the resolution cell on the accuracy of the soil moisture estimate. The use of realistic scenes containing only 10% to 15% bare soil and significant vegetation made it possible to observe a 60% K decrease in brightness temperature from a 5% soil moisture to a 35% soil moisture at a 21 cm microwave wavelength, providing a 1.5 K to 2 K per percent soil moisture sensitivity to soil moisture. It was shown that resolution does not affect the basic ability to measure soil moisture with a microwave radiometer system. Experimental microwave and ground field data were acquired for developing and testing a root zone soil moisture prediction algorithm. The experimental measurements demonstrated that the depth of penetration at a 21 cm microwave wavelength is not greater than 5 cm.

Newton, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

"Smart" Electromechanical Shock Absorber

Shock-absorbing apparatus includes electromechanical actuator and digital feedback control circuitry rather than springs and hydraulic damping as in conventional shock absorbers. Device not subject to leakage and requires little or no maintenance. Attenuator parameters adjusted in response to sensory feedback and predictive algorithms to obtain desired damping characteristic. Device programmed to decelerate slowly approaching vehicle or other large object according to prescribed damping characteristic.

Stokes, Lebarian↗

NASA NTRS1989

Design of a final approach spacing tool for TRACON air traffic control

This paper describes an automation tool that assists air traffic controllers in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facilities in providing safe and efficient sequencing and spacing of arrival traffic. The automation tool, referred to as the Final Approach Spacing Tool (FAST), allows the controller to interactively choose various levels of automation and advisory information ranging from predicted time errors to speed and heading advisories for controlling time error. FAST also uses a timeline to display current scheduling and sequencing information for all aircraft in the TRACON airspace. FAST combines accurate predictive algorithms and state-of-the-art mouse and graphical interface technology to present advisory information to the controller. Furthermore, FAST exchanges various types of traffic information and communicates with automation tools being developed for the Air Route Traffic Control Center. Thus it is part of an integrated traffic management system for arrival traffic at major terminal areas.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Robot tracking system improvements and visual calibration of orbiter position for radiator inspection

The following separate topics are addressed: (1) improving a robotic tracking system; and (2) providing insights into orbiter position calibration for radiator inspection. The objective of the tracking system project was to provide the capability to track moving targets more accurately by adjusting parameters in the control system and implementing a predictive algorithm. A computer model was developed to emulate the tracking system. Using this model as a test bed, a self-tuning algorithm was developed to tune the system gains. The model yielded important findings concerning factors that affect the gains. The self-tuning algorithms will provide the concepts to write a program to automatically tune the gains in the real system. The section concerning orbiter position calibration provides a comparison to previous work that had been performed for plant growth. It provided the conceptualized routines required to visually determine the orbiter position and orientation. Furthermore, it identified the types of information which are required to flow between the robot controller and the vision system.

Tonkay, Gregory↗

NASA NTRS1992

Discrete sequence prediction and its applications

Learning from experience to predict sequences of discrete symbols is a fundamental problem in machine learning with many applications. We apply sequence prediction using a simple and practical sequence-prediction algorithm, called TDAG. The TDAG algorithm is first tested by comparing its performance with some common data compression algorithms. Then it is adapted to the detailed requirements of dynamic program optimization, with excellent results.

Laird, Philip↗

NASA NTRS1994

Lunar crescent visibility

We report the results of five Moonwatches, in which more than 2000 observers throughout North America attempted to sight the thin lunar crescent. For each Moonwatch we were able to determine the position of the Lunar Date Line (LDL), the line along which a normal observer has a 50% probability of spotting the Moon. The observational LDLs were then compared with predicted LDLs derived from crescent visibility prediction algorithms. We find that ancient and medieval rules are higly unreliable. More recent empirical criteria, based on the relative altitude and azimuth of the Moon at the time of sunset, have a reasonable accuracy, with the best specific formulation being due to Yallop. The modern theoretical model by Schaefer (based on the physiology of the human eye and the local observing conditions) is found to have the least systematic error, the least average error, and the least maximum error of all models tested. Analysis of the observations also provided information about atmospheric, optical and human factors that affect the observations. We show that observational lunar calendars have a natural bias to begin early.

Doggett, Leroy E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Ocean color and atmospheric dimethyl sulfide: On their mesoscale variability

The mesoscale variability of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and ocean color is explored to determine the feasibility of a predictive relationship. During NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment/Chemical Instrumentation Test and Evaluation (GTE/CITE 3), simultaneous shipboard and aircraft studies were carried out in the North Atlantic, followed by aircraft studies in the South Atlantic. Surface concentrations of chlorophyll alpha were measured with an airborne spectroradiometer, the Ocean Data Acquisition System (ODAS), with simultaneous determinations of tropospheric DMS. Shipboard measurements of DMS in air and water as well as in situ chlorophyll alpha were taken in the North Atlantic. No relation was observed between shipboard aquatic DMS and chlorophyll alpha or primary productivity. Higher levels of aqueous DMS were not always reflected by atmospheric DMS, although shipboard and aircraft measurements of atmospheric DMS agreed very well. A significant relationship between atmospheric DMS and ocean color was seen once at low altitudes in both the North and South Atlantic only under clean air conditions. Atmospheric DMS levels during the North Atlantic experiment were probably lowered by the presence of mostly polluted air masses in the study area and were, overall, probably not representative of the in situ sea-to-air flux of DMS. Changes in concentration of aircraft-sensed chlorophyllous pigments were not reflected by atmospheric DMS. If a predictive algorithm is to be found, phytoplankton blooms should probably be the first place to study an ocean color-DMS relationship.

Matrai, Patricia A.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Ideas for Future GPS Timing Improvements

Having recently met stringent criteria for full operational capability (FOC) certification, the Global Positioning System (GPS) now has higher customer expectations than ever before. In order to maintain customer satisfaction, and the meet the even high customer demands of the future, the GPS Master Control Station (MCS) must play a critical role in the process of carefully refining the performance and integrity of the GPS constellation, particularly in the area of timing. This paper will present an operational perspective on several ideas for improving timing in GPS. These ideas include the desire for improving MCS - US Naval Observatory (USNO) data connectivity, an improved GPS-Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) prediction algorithm, a more robust Kalman Filter, and more features in the GPS reference time algorithm (the GPS composite clock), including frequency step resolution, a more explicit use of the basic time scale equation, and dynamic clock weighting. Current MCS software meets the exceptional challenge of managing an extremely complex constellation of 24 navigation satellites. The GPS community will, however, always seek to improve upon this performance and integrity.

Hutsell, Steven T.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Numerical Modeling Studies of Wake Vortex Transport and Evolution Within the Planetary Boundary Layer

The fundamental objective of this research is study behavior of aircraft wake vortices within atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in support of developing the system, Aircraft VOrtex Spacing System (AVOSS), under NASA's Terminal Area Productivity (TAR) program that will control aircraft spacing within the narrow approach corridors of airports. The purpose of the AVOSS system is to increase airport capacity by providing a safe reduction in separation of aircraft compared to the now-existing flight rules. In our first funding period (7 January 19994 - 6 April 1997), we have accomplished extensive model development and validation of ABL simulations. Using the validated model, in our second funding period (7 April 1997 - 6 April 2000) we have investigated the effects of ambient atmospheric turbulence on vortex decay and descent, Crow instability, and wake vortex interaction with the ground. Recognizing the crucial influence of ABL turbulence on wake vortex behavior, we have also developed a software generating vertical profiles of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) or energy dissipation rate (EDR), which are, in turn, used as input data in the AVOSS prediction algorithms.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗