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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards A Flexible Framework for Community-Wide Ensemble Forecasting Tailored for Major Space Environment Impacts

To build continuously improving space weather predictive capabilities based on science and enable assessments and rapid implementations of advances in research into source-to-impact modelling systems we need: to assemble parts of the puzzle by solving problems focused on specific physical domains; to identify essential space environment quantities (ESEQs) passed between domains and linked to impacts; evaluate modeling capabilities for each ESEQ; connect all validated solutions from space weather origins on the sun to impacts on humans and critical infrastructure; to design displays for ensemble predictions tailored for major space weather user groups; to build a collaborative environment for efficient sharing of information and capabilities (models/data/expertise) and collaborative development. The presentation will overview existing community-wide space weather forecasting frameworks and research-to-operations pipelines and discuss opportunities to build a collaborative plug-and-play platform for interconnecting predictive capabilities developed under different space weather programs.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2014

Aggregation Tool to Create Curated Data albums to Support Disaster Recovery and Response

Despite advances in science and technology of prediction and simulation of natural hazards, losses incurred due to natural disasters keep growing every year. Natural disasters cause more economic losses as compared to anthropogenic disasters. Economic losses due to natural hazards are estimated to be around $6-$10 billion dollars annually for the U.S. and this number keeps increasing every year. This increase has been attributed to population growth and migration to more hazard prone locations such as coasts. As this trend continues, in concert with shifts in weather patterns caused by climate change, it is anticipated that losses associated with natural disasters will keep growing substantially. One of challenges disaster response and recovery analysts face is to quickly find, access and utilize a vast variety of relevant geospatial data collected by different federal agencies such as DoD, NASA, NOAA, EPA, USGS etc. Some examples of these data sets include high spatio-temporal resolution multi/hyperspectral satellite imagery, model prediction outputs from weather models, latest radar scans, measurements from an array of sensor networks such as Integrated Ocean Observing System etc. More often analysts may be familiar with limited, but specific datasets and are often unaware of or unfamiliar with a large quantity of other useful resources. Finding airborne or satellite data useful to a natural disaster event often requires a time consuming search through web pages and data archives. Additional information related to damages, deaths, and injuries requires extensive online searches for news reports and official report summaries. An analyst must also sift through vast amounts of potentially useful digital information captured by the general public such as geo-tagged photos, videos and real time damage updates within twitter feeds. Collecting and aggregating these information fragments can provide useful information in assessing damage in real time and help direct recovery efforts. The search process for the analyst could be made much more efficient and productive if a tool could go beyond a typical search engine and provide not just links to web sites but actual links to specific data relevant to the natural disaster, parse unstructured reports for useful information nuggets, as well as gather other related reports, summaries, news stories, and images. This presentation will describe a semantic aggregation tool developed to address similar problem for Earth Science researchers. This tool provides automated curation, and creates "Data Albums" to support case studies. The generated "Data Albums" are compiled collections of information related to a specific science topic or event, containing links to relevant data files (granules) from different instruments; tools and services for visualization and analysis; information about the event contained in news reports, and images or videos to supplement research analysis. An ontology-based relevancy-ranking algorithm drives the curation of relevant data sets for a given event. This tool is now being used to generate a catalog of Hurricane Case Studies at Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC), one of NASA's Distribute Active Archive Centers. Another instance of the Data Albums tool is currently being created in collaboration with NASA/MSFC's SPoRT Center, which conducts research on unique NASA products and capabilities that can be transitioned to the operational community to solve forecast problems. This new instance focuses on severe weather to support SPoRT researchers in their model evaluation studies

Ramachandran, Rahul↗
NASA NTRS2010

Hybrid-PIC Computer Simulation of the Plasma and Erosion Processes in Hall Thrusters

HPHall software simulates and tracks the time-dependent evolution of the plasma and erosion processes in the discharge chamber and near-field plume of Hall thrusters. HPHall is an axisymmetric solver that employs a hybrid fluid/particle-in-cell (Hybrid-PIC) numerical approach. HPHall, originally developed by MIT in 1998, was upgraded to HPHall-2 by the Polytechnic University of Madrid in 2006. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has continued the development of HPHall-2 through upgrades to the physical models employed in the code, and the addition of entirely new ones. Primary among these are the inclusion of a three-region electron mobility model that more accurately depicts the cross-field electron transport, and the development of an erosion sub-model that allows for the tracking of the erosion of the discharge chamber wall. The code is being developed to provide NASA science missions with a predictive tool of Hall thruster performance and lifetime that can be used to validate Hall thrusters for missions.

Hofer, Richard R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of MSL RCS Jet Computations With Flow Visualization and Velocimetry

Numerical predictions of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) reaction control system (RCS) jets interacting with a Mach 10 hypersonic flow are compared to experimental nitric oxide (NO) planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) data. The steady Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) equations using the Baldwin-Barth one-equation turbulence model were solved using the OVERFLOW code. The experimental PLIF data used for comparison consists of qualitative two-dimensional visualization images, qualitative reconstructed three-dimensional flow structures, and quantitative two-dimensional distributions of streamwise velocity. Through modeling of the PLIF signal equation, computational flow images (CFI) were produced and directly compared to the qualitative PLIF data. Post processing of the experimental and simulation data enabled the jet trajectory to be extracted for a more quantitative comparison. The two-dimensional velocity fields were reconstructed through interpolation of a series of single-component velocity profiles. Each distribution of single-component velocity was obtained using molecular tagging velocimetry (MTV). After validating the numerical model, the numerical solution was further examined to gain insight into hypersonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. Future NO-PLIF experiments are proposed based on this analysis.

Johansen, Craig T.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Interpretable Machine Learning for Molecular Biosignatures: a Novel Single-Sample Feature Importance Method That Is Sensitive To Statistical Interactions

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) of volatiles (e.g., CO 2 ) promises to be a powerful tool for potential biosignature detection for future missions to ocean worlds (OW) such as Europa and Enceladus. Machine learning (ML) methods for IRMS data could enable science autonomy by onboard prediction of seawater chemistry and biosignature presence. However, ML models are likely to be complex and involve statistical interactions between features (variables), which can make predictions seem opaque and enigmatic. For ML predictions as significant as extraterrestrial biosignatures, we must place extraordinary confidence in models. It is therefore essential that these models make interpretable predictions (i.e., human-understandable) and include false-prediction diagnostics. We achieve high accuracy and interpretability in ML biosignature and seawater chemistry models for OW through a nearest-neighbors feature selection tool that detects statistical interactions between predictors, constructs interaction networks for visualization of selected features working together to make a prediction, and reports single-sample feature importance scores for false-detection diagnostics. Here we develop a novel single-sample nearest-neighbors projected distance regression(ssNPDR) feature selection method that improves upon existing single-sample algorithms through the inclusion of statistical interactions while providing false-prediction diagnostics for ML models.

geochemistry↗
NASA NTRS2013

Automating Stowage Operations for the International Space Station

A challenge for any proposed mission is to demonstrate convincingly that the proposed systems will in fact deliver the science promised. Funding agencies and mission design personnel are becoming ever more skeptical of the abstractions that form the basis of the current state of the practice with respect to approximating science return. To address this, we have been using automated planning and scheduling technology to provide actual coverage campaigns that provide better predictive performance with respect to science return for a given mission design and set of mission objectives given implementation uncertainties. Specifically, we have applied an adaptation of ASPEN and SPICE to the Eagle-Eye domain that demonstrates the performance of the mission design with respect to coverage of science imaging targets that address climate change and disaster response. Eagle-Eye is an Earth-imaging telescope that has been proposed to fly aboard the International Space Station (ISS).

box packing↗
NASA NTRS2013

Mission Design Evaluation Using Automated Planning for High Resolution Imaging of Dynamic Surface Processes from the ISS

A challenge for any proposed mission is to demonstrate convincingly that the proposed systems will in fact deliver the science promised. Funding agencies and mission design personnel are becoming ever more skeptical of the abstractions that form the basis of the current state of the practice with respect to approximating science return. To address this, we have been using automated planning and scheduling technology to provide actual coverage campaigns that provide better predictive performance with respect to science return for a given mission design and set of mission objectives given implementation uncertainties. Specifically, we have applied an adaptation of ASPEN and SPICE to the Eagle-Eye domain that demonstrates the performance of the mission design with respect to coverage of science imaging targets that address climate change and disaster response. Eagle-Eye is an Earth-imaging telescope that has been proposed to fly aboard the International Space Station (ISS).

International Space Station↗
NASA NTRS2021

Scheduling and Operations of the ECOSTRESS Mission

This paper describes the development and use of an automated scheduling system for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission. Key to the success of the ECOSTRESS mission has been the use of automated scheduling in mission analysis pre-launch, and in successful operations where automated scheduling was deployed to address several operational challenges. ECOSTRESS uses an adaptation of the Compressed Large-scale Activity Scheduling and Planning (CLASP) system to automatically select science observations respecting area and point target priorities as well as visibility, illumination, onboard storage, and radiation constraints to satisfy high-level prioritized science campaigns. The ECOSTRESS scheduler was used pre-launch to predict the effectiveness of alternative formulations of science campaign definitions accounting for the impact of data volume, keepout, and orbit/illumination/visibility constraints to derive the initial operational science campaign definitions and priorities. The scheduler was then used after instrument checkout for operations. ECOSTRESS has faced multiple operational challenges relating to instrument firmware and hardware, and the scheduler has been updated several times to address these challenges. The instrument Mass Storage Units (MSUs) had operational issues, requiring the scheduler to plan for and schedule commands to handle intricacies of data management. After many months of operations, both MSUs on the instrument became non-functioning and the firmware of the instrument was updated to bypass the MSUs. A further update to the ECOSTRESS scheduler enabled the scheduler to operate in this new operations mode. The ECOSTRESS scheduler has also been updated to improve handling of along-track uncertainty inherent in International Space Station operations. The flexibility and ease of updating of the automated scheduler has been a significant contributor to successful operations of the ECOSTRESS mission.

Padams, Jordan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Accuracy of RANS Simulations for Mars Entry Vehicles

Accurate yet inexpensive predictions of aerodynamic coefficients for Mars entry vehicles have remained a consistent challenge over the past five decades. Below Mach 6, drag on the backshell becomes significant and must be accurately predicted. Steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are commonly used, despite their poor predictions of backshell pressure. While scale-resolving simulations have shown promise in the past decade, there is still a need for cheap, accurate RANS predictions for large aerodynamic databases. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is used as a case study to examine predictive accuracy and known shortcomings for RANS predictions of Mars entry vehicles. Several different grid generation techniques are compared, including a comparison between prismatic boundary layer grids and fully unstructured, tetrahedral grids. Comparisons are made to experimental data for Mach 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5. The accuracy of predicted aerodynamic coefficients is examined. Overpredictions in axial force and drag are explained by a closer examination of the surface pressure. These findings document sensitivities and best practices for future RANS database development of Mars entry vehicles.

RANS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Accuracy of RANS Simulations for Mars Entry Vehicles

Accurate yet inexpensive predictions of aerodynamic coefficients for Mars entry vehicles have remained a consistent challenge over the past five decades. Below Mach 6, drag on the backshell becomes significant and must be accurately predicted. Steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models are commonly used, despite their poor predictions of backshell pressure. While scale-resolving simulations have shown promise in the past decade, there is still a need for cheap, accurate RANS predictions for large aerodynamic databases. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is used as a case study to examine predictive accuracy and known shortcomings for RANS predictions of Mars entry vehicles. Several different grid generation techniques are compared, including a comparison between prismatic boundary layer grids and fully unstructured, tetrahedral grids. Comparisons are made to experimental data for Mach 2.5, 3.5, and 4.5. The accuracy of predicted aerodynamic coefficients is examined. Overpredictions in axial force and drag are explained by a closer examination of the surface pressure. These findings document sensitivities and best practices for future RANS database development of Mars entry vehicles.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2023

How Dark the Sky: The JWST Backgrounds

We describe the sources of stray light and thermal background that affect JWST observations; report actual backgrounds as measured from commissioning and early science observations; compare those background levels to pre-launch predictions; estimate the impact of the backgrounds on science performance; and explore how the backgrounds probe the achieved configuration of the deployed observatory. We find the observatory is limited by the irreducible astrophysical backgrounds, rather than scattered stray light and thermal self-emission, for all wavelengths λ<12.5 micron, thus meeting the level 1 requirement. This result was not assured given the open architecture and thermal challenges of JWST, and is the result of meticulous attention to stray light and thermal issues in the design, construction, integration, and test phases. From background considerations alone, JWST will require less integration time in the near-infrared compared to a system that just met the stray light requirements; as such, JWST will be even more powerful than expected for deep imaging at 1--5 micron. In the mid-infrared, the measured thermal backgrounds closely match pre-launch predictions. The background near 10 micron is slightly higher than predicted before launch, but the impact on observations is mitigated by the excellent throughput of MIRI, such that instrument sensitivity will be as good as expected pre-launch. These measured background levels are fully compatible with JWST's science goals and the Cycle 1 science program currently underway.

Astronomical instrumentation↗
NASA NTRS2006

Description of Light Ion Production Cross Sections and Fluxes on the Mars Surface using the QMSFRG Model

The atmosphere of Mars significantly attenuates the heavy ion component of the primary galactic cosmic rays (GCR), however increases the fluence of secondary light ions (neutrons, and hydrogen and helium isotopes) because of particle production processes. We describe results of the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSFRG) model for the production of light nuclei through the distinct mechanisms of nuclear abrasion and ablation, coalescence, and cluster knockout. The QMSFRG model is shown to be in excellent agreement with available experimental data for nuclear fragmentation cross sections. We use the QMSFRG model and the space radiation transport code, HZETRN to make predictions of the light particle environment on the Martian surface at solar minimum and maximum. The radiation assessment detector (RAD) experiment will be launched in 2009 as part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). We make predictions of the expected results for time dependent count-rates to be observed by RAD experiment. Finally, we consider sensitivity assessments of the impact of the Martian atmospheric composition on particle fluxes at the surface.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Scintillation Prediction Observations Research Task (SPORT) Mission

SPORT is a science mission using a 6U CubeSat and integrated ground network that will (1) advance understanding and (2) enable improved predictions of scintillation occurrence that impact GPS signals and radio communications. This is the science of Space Weather. SPORT is an international partnership with NASA, U.S. institutions, the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE), and the Technical Aeronautics Institute under the Brazilian Air Force Command Department (DCTA/ITA).

SPORT↗
NASA NTRS2002

Biological Invasions: A Challenge In Ecological Forecasting

The spread of invasive species is one of the most daunting environmental, economic, and human-health problems facing the United States and the World today. It is one of several grand challenge environmental problems being considered by NASA's Earth Science Vision for 2025. The invasive species problem is complex and presents many challenges. Developing an invasive species predictive capability could significantly advance the science and technology of ecological forecasting.

Schnase, J. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Field Campaign to Study Lightning that Ignites the Bush

The impact of recent wildland fires in the United States and Australia have received much attention in the past several years. As a result, NASA has developed a new Earth Science program to better understand, predict, and manage this phenomenon, as well as a future suborbital mission to studying pyro-cumulonimbus clouds and their effects on the Earth system. In Australia, government and philanthropic stakeholders are supporting a series of field campaigns over the next few years to inform science requirements and advance technology for a future satellite mission to monitor Bushfires. Lightning flashes are a major source of wildland fires, but uncertainties remain about the physical characteristics of lightning and their parent thunderstorms responsible for igniting wildfires. It was long believed that most lightning-ignited wildfires are largely caused by positive flashes to the ground (CGs) and multi-stroke CGs, but a recent study looking at 26-years of NLDN data indicate otherwise. Perhaps this finding is due to statistical chance—there are more negative CGs that occur globally—or perhaps there is some unknown electrical property of the thundercloud from which the igniting flashes emanate. Regardless, new observing strategies are needed. Additionally, long continuing current CGs, which are more likely to ignite a fire, can elude detection by operational ground-based lightning location systems, making it difficult to efficiently identify potential wildland fires and manage them before they have adverse impacts. To address these science and operational gaps, NASA’s Lightning Mapping Array along with electric and magnetic field change meters will be deployed for the Australian Bushfire campaign to document the electrical structure and properties of thunderstorms and lightning that occur in a wildland fire susceptible region. Another aspect of the campaign will be the use of NASA’s airborne lightning observatory, which includes a spectrometer and high-speed imager, to document the radiometric attributes of these flashes coincident with the ground-based RF observations. These observations will be used to better understand the properties of lightning that ignite wildland fires as well as inform design of a lightning detection system for the future Bushfire Monitoring satellite mission.

lightning↗
NASA NTRS1995

Satellite Situation Center data system for magnetospheric science planning

Critical problems in planning coordinated observation campaigns for magnetospheric science include the need to predict time intervals when one or more observing satellites or ground stations will be connected along magnetic field lines to other observation sites, or when such sites will be located within magnetospheric regions of common interest. The Satellite Situation Center (SSC) was created at the National Space Science Data Center (NSSDC) during the International Magnetospheric Study in the 1970s to address these problems. The SSC Data System has evolved since that era to support potentially complex queries by SSC staff and has now been opened to NASA Science Internet access via the NSSDC On-line Data Information System (NODIS). The SSC software, ephemeris data base, and access modes are described for the Version 2.1 release in 1993.

Aist-Sagara, L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

NEXRAD-In-Space: A Geostationary Orbiting Doppler Radar for Hurricane Monitoring and Studies

Under NASA's Earth Science Technology Program, a novel mission concept has been developed for detailed monitoring of hurricanes, cyclones, and severe storms from a geostationary orbit: "NEXRAD in Space" (NIS). By operating in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), NIS would enable rapid-update sampling (less than or equal to 1 hour cadence) of three dimenional fields of 35 GHz (Ka-band) radar reflectivity factor (Z) and line-of-sight Doppler velocity (VD) profiles, at mesoscale horizontal resolutions (approx. 10 km) over a circular Earth region of approximately 5300 km in diameter (equivalent to much of an oceanic basin, such as the Atlantic). NIS GEO-radar concept was chosen as one of only four potential post-2020 missions for the Weather Focus area in the 2007-2016 NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Science Plan. The results of the first project aiming at developing the NIS concept highlighted the enormous potential of such mission, and the technological challenges presented by it. In essence, it is because of its rapid-cadence capability that NIS science planning is focusing on hurricane monitoring and prediction. Hurricanes, or generically tropical cyclones (TCs), have always been among the most devastating natural phenomena. This has been painfully reiterated in recent years with a number of powerful TCs landfalling in North America and elsewhere. In April 2007, the first NIS Science Workshop was convened at the University of Miami to galvanize the scientific community's interest in NIS's measurement capabilities for improved TC monitoring and prediction. The general consensus of the workshop was that a GEO Doppler radar would provide a major breakthrough in regards to the observation of TCs, and, when combined with cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents brief summaries of the instrument concept, the current technology status, the anticipated impacts on hurricane monitoring and model prediction, and the future science and technology roadmap.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS1973

Simulation of flexible appendage interactions with Mariner Venus/Mercury attitude control and science platform pointing

A new computer subroutine, which solves the attitude equations of motion for any vehicle idealized as a topological tree of hinge-connected rigid bodies, is used to simulate and analyze science instrument pointing control interaction with a flexible Mariner Venus/Mercury (MVM) spacecraft. The subroutine's user options include linearized or partially linearized hinge-connected models whose computational advantages are demonstrated for the MVM problem. Results of the pointing control/flexible vehicle interaction simulations, including imaging experiment pointing accuracy predictions and implications for MVM science sequence planning, are described in detail.

Fleischer, G. E.↗