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At least 91 records · Page 5

Scaling Laws of Graph Neural Networks for Atomistic Materials Modeling

Atomistic materials modeling is a critical task with wide-ranging applications, from drug discovery to materials science, where accurate predictions of the target material property can lead to significant advancements in scientific discovery. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) represent the state-of-the-art approach for modeling atomistic material data thanks to their capacity to capture complex relational structures. While machine learning performance has historically improved with larger models and datasets, GNNs for atomistic materials modeling remain relatively small compared to large language models (LLMs), which leverage billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets to achieve remarkable performance in their respective domains. To address this gap, we explore the scaling limits of GNNs for atomistic materials modeling by developing a foundational model with billions of parameters, trained on extensive datasets in terabytescale. Our approach incorporates techniques from LLM libraries to efficiently manage large-scale data and models, enabling both effective training and deployment of these large-scale GNN models. This work addresses three fundamental questions in scaling GNNs: the potential for scaling GNN model architectures, the effect of dataset size on model accuracy, and the applicability of LLM-inspired techniques to GNN architectures. Specifically, the outcomes of this study include (1) insights into the scaling laws for GNNs, highlighting the relationship between model size, dataset volume, and accuracy, (2) a foundational GNN model optimized for atomistic materials modeling, and (3) a GNN codebase enhanced with advanced LLM-based training techniques. Our findings lay the groundwork for large-scale GNNs with billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets, establishing a scalable pathway for future advancements in atomistic materials modeling.

Li, Chaojian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000340309777)↗

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical investigation of a fueled pre-chamber spark-ignition natural gas engine

Pre-chamber spark-ignition (PCSI) is a leading advanced ignition concept for internal combustion engines with the potential to enable diesel-like efficiency in medium-duty/heavy-duty (MD/HD) natural gas (NG) engines. By leveraging distributed ignition sources from multiple turbulent jets, the PCSI technology can deliver extremely short combustion duration in ultra-lean mixtures and significantly improve the engine thermal efficiency. However, in the automotive industry there is a lack of adequate science base and predictive simulation tools required for commercial development of PCSI engines. Here, in this study, Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes simulations are carried out to describe the combustion process in lean-burn NG engines, focusing on the combustion modeling approach. Two combustion models, multi-zone well-stirred reactor (MZ-WSR) and G-equation, are used to simulate the combustion process in an MD NG engine equipped with a fueled-PCSI system for four operating conditions close to the lean operating limit. A skeletal chemical mechanism and a laminar flame speed tabulation are used to compute the combustion accurately. Simulation results are compared with experimental data regarding measured cylinder pressure, heat release rate, and combustion duration. By dividing the PCSI combustion process into four distinct phases, the difference between the two models’ results for each phase is analyzed in detail. The MZ-WSR model overestimates the combustion duration for early flame kernel growth in the pre-chamber due to the lack of a specific formulation to take turbulence-chemistry interaction into account. Despite the prolonged combustion duration and low pressure built-up inside the pre-chamber, the model matches the combustion rate in the main-chamber. In contrast, the G-equation model delivers good agreements for the pre-chamber combustion and turbulent jet-driven combustion processes. However, the model starts to underestimate the combustion rate in the main-chamber, especially under ultra-lean mixture conditions. Finally, improvements are needed for both models to simulate the later combustion stage that occurred in the near-wall regions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Non-Equilibrium Actinide Radiation Chemistry and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Actinides are inherently unstable elements that frequently coexist with other radioisotopes, generating intense ionizing radiation fields that drive the formation of non equilibrium oxidation states. These transient species exert a profound mechanistic influence on the radiation response of actinide containing systems due to their unique redox chemistry. Despite their importance, they remain poorly understood, yet such insight is essential for advancing actinide science and accurately predicting radiation driven behavior. Actinide separations—critical for nuclear energy technologies, strategic deterrence, space exploration, and nuclear medicine—depend on precise control of actinide oxidation states to recover targeted elements from complex matrices such as used nuclear fuel. However, during these processes, actinides, their coordination complexes, and the separation media are all exposed to intense, multicomponent (alpha, beta, gamma, etc.) radiation fields that can alter process efficiency, selectivity, and chemical stability. Understanding, controlling, and mitigating radiation induced reactions is therefore key to innovating and optimizing next generation separation technologies. This seminar will provide an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle and non equilibrium actinide radiation chemistry in the context of recovering actinides from used nuclear fuel, with a particular emphasis on direct dissolution–based reprocessing strategies. We will explore time resolved electron pulse radiolysis and alpha and gamma dose accumulation studies, integrated with multiscale computational modeling, to elucidate the molecular level roles of radiation driven, non equilibrium actinide species in process performance and in the radiolytic stability of organic ligands used for actinide recovery. These insights offer new pathways for designing advanced separation methods and next generation solvent systems, with broad implications for the future of the nuclear fuel cycle.

37 - INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL C↗

Non-Equilibrium Actinide Radiation Chemistry and the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Invited John and Naomi Fackler Lectureship in Chemistry and English seminar at Valparaiso University, IN, USA. Actinides are inherently unstable elements that frequently coexist with other radioisotopes, generating intense ionizing radiation fields that drive the formation of non-equilibrium oxidation states. These transient species exert a profound mechanistic influence on the radiation response of actinide-containing systems due to their unique redox chemistry. Despite their importance, they remain poorly understood, yet such insight is essential for advancing actinide science and accurately predicting radiation-driven behavior. Actinide separations—critical for nuclear energy technologies, strategic deterrence, space exploration, and nuclear medicine—depend on precise control of actinide oxidation states to recover targeted elements from complex matrices such as used nuclear fuel. However, during these processes, actinides, their coordination complexes, and the separation media are all exposed to intense, multicomponent (alpha, beta, gamma, etc.) radiation fields that can alter process efficiency, selectivity, and chemical stability. Understanding, controlling, and mitigating radiation-induced reactions is therefore key to innovating and optimizing next-generation separation technologies. This seminar will provide an overview of the nuclear fuel cycle and non-equilibrium actinide radiation chemistry in the context of recovering actinides from used nuclear fuel, with a particular emphasis on direct-dissolution–based reprocessing strategies. We will explore time-resolved electron pulse radiolysis and gamma dose accumulation studies to elucidate the molecular-level roles of radiation-driven, non-equilibrium actinide species in process performance and in the radiolytic stability of organic ligands used for actinide recovery. These insights offer new pathways for designing advanced separation methods and next-generation solvent systems, with broad implications for the future of the nuclear fuel cycle.

37 - INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL C↗

A Science Gateway for the Repeatable Analysis of Machine Learning Predicted Gravity Anomalies

In recent years, deep learning has become an increasingly popular alternative for modeling in geoscience applications due to its scalability and efficiency. However, the interpretability, compute, data volume, and hyperparameter tuning requirements of deep learning models make development and monitoring difficult. Furthermore, model explainability and communicating results obtained by these models to users or domain experts is a challenge, as domain experts in geoscience also need to have a deep understanding of how those models function in order to support their scientific works. Here, we describe a science gateway and machine learning pipeline for predicting gravity anomalies from geophysical data. The gateway, built on open-source technologies, provides a holistic view of the pipeline through interactive visualizations aimed at enabling efficient exploratory data analysis. The repeatability, reproducibility, and monitoring capabilities of this overall system allow us to iterate and analyze at scale. Using this pipeline and gateway, we can repeatedly produce accurate high-resolution gravity anomaly datasets. By describing the underlying technologies, implementation, and results, here we provide a foundation for the broader adoption of science gateways into cross-cutting geoscience and machine learning research projects as a means to improve the scientific discovery and collaboration in the geophysics and computational sciences community.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Identification of Critical Process Parameters for Knife Milling and Alternative Communication Strategies

An assessment of knife milling operations was performed to identify parameters that require consideration to model wear and degradation of knife blades. A quality-by-design (QbD) paradigm was followed to identify material and feedstock attributes, and processing parameters that impact the quality attributes of the blades used in the comminution of biomass into forms compatible with downstream operations. Based on analytical and experimental observations of knife and tool wear, a QbD model is proposed that considers three wear mechanisms (erosion, abrasion, and gouging) to predict volumetric wear of knife blades and sharpness. These factors, if properly applied, provide a science-based approach to predict the mechanical efficiency of the mill as a function of feedstock properties, knife blade material properties, and processing parameters (feed rate, speed, and design parameters).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) Platform to Predict Integrated Water Cycle and Associated extremes

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated). Science Challenge: Although advanced predictive capabilities of the water cycle are critical to address environmental needs and develop sustainable solutions for energy demands, there is no robust framework, to say the least, that seamlessly integrates local to intermediate to global scales and a gamut of biogeophysical information to enhance understanding of the integrated water cycle and its associated extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards Efficient Uncertainty estimation in deep learning for robust energy prediction in crystal materials

In material science, recent studies have started to explore the potential of using deep learning to improve property prediction from high-fidelity simulations, e.g, density functional theory (DFT). However, the design spaces are sometimes too large and intractable to sample completely. This results in a critical question that is how to evaluate the confidence and robustness of the prediction. In this paper, we propose an efficient approach to estimate uncertainty in deep learning using a single forward pass and then apply it for robust prediction of the total energy in crystal lattice structures. Our approach is built upon the deep kernel learning (DKL) that originally introduces to leverage the expressiveness of deep neural networks as input with a probabilistic prediction of Gaussian processes (GPs) as output. Existing DKL methods have difficulties in the accuracy of predictive uncertainty, training stability, and scaling to large datasets, which lead to significant barriers in real-world applications. We propose to address these challenges by using an inducing point approximate GP in feature space combined with spectral normalization as a regularization. We finally demonstrate our robust performance on an artificial example and a real-world application from materials chemistry.

Bi, Sirui↗

LDRD 2022 Annual Report: Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This report provides a detailed look at the scientific and technical activities for each of the LDRD projects funded by BNL in FY 2022, in fulfillment of that requirement. In FY 2022, the BNL LDRD Program funded 70 projects, 30 of which were new starts, at a total cost of $17.2M. The investments that BNL makes in its LDRD program support the Laboratory’s strategic goals. BNL has identified seven scientific initiatives that define the Laboratory’s scientific future and that will enable it to realize its overall vision. This requires simultaneous excellence in all aspects of BNL’s work – from science and operations, to external partnerships with the local, state, and national communities, and beyond. This is enabled by safe, efficient, and secure operations; by an unwavering commitment to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive environment, including workforce development, both with staff and reaching out to the community; and by a strong focus on renewed infrastructure. The seven scientific initiatives are: 1) Nuclear Physics: uncover the structure of visible matter by constructing and operating the Electron-Ion Collider at BNL to maintain international leadership in nuclear physics for decades; 2) Clean Energy and Climate: support a net-zero U.S. economy through fundamental research in basic energy and climate sciences to revolutionize grid-scale storage, renewable integration, and the study of atmospheric processes with a new facility to improve climate predictability; 3) Quantum Information Science and Technology: discover new quantum materials to enhance quantum computers and develop an entanglement sharing quantum network as a prototype for the first quantum internet; 4) Discovery Science Driven by the Human-AI Facility Integration: revolutionize the operation of experiments across the sciences at user facilities and in core programs; 5) High Energy Physics: understand the origin of space and time with the ATLAS high luminosity upgrade at CERN and the future Long Baseline Neutrino Facility/Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment; 6) Isotope Production: accelerate and expand isotope production to ensure the security of the Nation’s supply; 7) Accelerator Science and Technology: harness the cross-cutting accelerator science expertise at BNL to develop new facilities, improve and expand its user facilities, and promote the use of accelerators in industry. The funded projects support BNL’s seven scientific initiatives and priority programs as well as new areas of research and competencies at the Laboratory that are consistent with the Laboratory’s vision and mission. In total, these LDRD investments supported 43 postdoctoral researchers in whole or in part and resulted in 138 publications and 7 awards. This Program Activities Report represents the future of BNL science; it is an impressive body of exploratory work that investigates many scientific and technical directions in support of the DOE and BNL missions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Improved subseasonal-to-seasonal precipitation prediction of climate models with nudging approach for better initialization of Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal wave train and land surface conditions

Abstract Reliable subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction is highly desired due to the great socioeconomical implications, yet it remains one of the most challenging topics in the weather/climate prediction research area. As part of the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P) project of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program, twenty-one climate models follow the LS4P protocol to quantify the impact of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) springtime anomalies on the global summertime precipitation. We find that nudging towards reanalysis winds is crucial for climate models to generate atmosphere and land surface initial conditions close to observations, which is necessary for meaningful S2S applications. Simulations with nudged initial conditions can better capture the summer precipitation responses to the imposed TP LST/SUBT spring anomalies at hotspot regions all over the world. Further analyses show that the enhanced S2S prediction skill is largely attributable to the substantially improved initialization of the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train pattern in the atmosphere. This study highlights the important role that initial condition plays in the S2S prediction and suggests that data assimilation technique (e.g., nudging) should be adopted to initialize climate models to improve their S2S prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reimagining How Flood Warnings Can Inform Decision‐Making and Community Actions

Society faces increasingly severe flood hazards, intensifying demand for flood early warning systems (FEWS) that deliver accurate and actionable information. However, most existing FEWS remain prediction‐centric, treating decision‐making as a downstream consumer of hazard forecasts while offering limited support for uncertainty interpretation, risk communication, and real‐world response. This Perspective presents a vision and blueprint for a novel inland FEWS‐decision‐making (FEWS‐DM) framework that repositions decision‐making as an equal partner in the forecasting process—not a passive recipient of its outputs. The framework is built on three tightly coupled, co‐evolving thrusts: Physical Science (T1), which advances flood prediction with quantified uncertainty informed by decision relevance; Human Science (T2), which incorporates psychology, behavior, and cultural and institutional context; and Decision Science (T3), which unifies physical predictions and human factors through principled, utility‐based decision support with end‐to‐end uncertainty management. Rather than treating T1 as a solved problem, FEWS‐DM recognizes that forecast development itself must be shaped by decision needs through continuous bidirectional feedback. We identify key scientific, behavioral, and operational challenges limiting such integration and discuss the enabling role of AI, while emphasizing human‐centered design and community feedback as essential for building trust and improving flood risk management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reversed Field Pinch Research in MST (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the cooperative agreement DE-FC02-05ER54814 titled “Reversed Field Pinch Research in MST” spanning the funding period 4/1/2005 to 12/14/2019. It summarizes key results from MST research, major publications and presentations, and the mentoring of graduate students and postdocs. The Madison Symmetric Torus (MST) is unique within the U.S. and world fusion plasma program. As one of just five operating reversed field pinch (RFP) experiments, and the only one in the U.S., MST has had an important role in advancing the fundamental understanding of the RFP plasma configuration. The MST research program targets topics that intersect with all three goals. While MST provides a unique opportunity to advance the science and fusion potential of the RFP, as a cousin to the tokamak and stellarator plasma configurations the RFP is a valuable partner in establishing validated predictive capability for fusion science more generally. Specific combinations of the major variables in toroidal confinement, like magnetic field strength, plasma current, and shaping, define the different configurations. By exploring adjacent regions in this major variable parameter space, the RFP exposes dependencies not otherwise accessible in the tokamak and stellarator. This diversity enlarges the arena for scientific discovery, both for fusion and plasma physics. The basic science emphasis for MST research has been the self-organizing behavior of RFP plasmas. This inspired MST’s participation in the NSF Physics Frontier Center for Magnetic Self-Organization in Laboratory and Astrophysical Plasmas (CMSO), which ran from 2004-2016 and motivated a substantial fraction of MST’s research goals and capabilities. By all measures the MST Program has been remarkably successful in publications, community engagement, and mentoring of young scientists. While the DOE-FES’s proof-of-principle program for the RFP now languishes through the cessation of this cooperative agreement, operation of MST continues as one of two devices included in the new Wisconsin Plasma Physics Laboratory (WiPPL) basic science user facility. The scope of present research for MST in WiPPL is narrowed to the basic science associated with the RFP magnetic configuration and the advancement of specific fusion topics, which now includes studies of disruptions in tokamak plasmas. The world’s effort in RFP fusion research continues, despite a lack of U.S. federal support to investigate the RFP configuration for fusion application, most notably through a major upgrade to the RFX-mod2 facility in Italy [1] and the recent construction of the KTX facility at USTC in China. First plasmas for RFX-mod2 are anticipated in 2021.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DeepDist: real-value inter-residue distance prediction with deep residual convolutional network

Abstract Background Driven by deep learning, inter-residue contact/distance prediction has been significantly improved and substantially enhanced ab initio protein structure prediction. Currently, most of the distance prediction methods classify inter-residue distances into multiple distance intervals instead of directly predicting real-value distances. The output of the former has to be converted into real-value distances to be used in tertiary structure prediction. Results To explore the potentials of predicting real-value inter-residue distances, we develop a multi-task deep learning distance predictor (DeepDist) based on new residual convolutional network architectures to simultaneously predict real-value inter-residue distances and classify them into multiple distance intervals. Tested on 43 CASP13 hard domains, DeepDist achieves comparable performance in real-value distance prediction and multi-class distance prediction. The average mean square error (MSE) of DeepDist’s real-value distance prediction is 0.896 Å 2 when filtering out the predicted distance ≥ 16 Å, which is lower than 1.003 Å 2 of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction. When distance predictions are converted into contact predictions at 8 Å threshold (the standard threshold in the field), the precision of top L/5 and L/2 contact predictions of DeepDist’s multi-class distance prediction is 79.3% and 66.1%, respectively, higher than 78.6% and 64.5% of its real-value distance prediction and the best results in the CASP13 experiment. Conclusions DeepDist can predict inter-residue distances well and improve binary contact prediction over the existing state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the predicted real-value distances can be directly used to reconstruct protein tertiary structures better than multi-class distance predictions due to the lower MSE. Finally, we demonstrate that predicting the real-value distance map and multi-class distance map at the same time performs better than predicting real-value distances alone.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Determining reference standard strength for neutron-irradiated reduced activation ferritic/martensitic steel F82H by Bayesian method

The deterministic approach widely adopted in the design of structural components relies on systematically defined design limits using empirically determined safety factors. However, this approach is not always appropriate because structures are subjected to a variety of loads in the practical environment, which may result in excessively conservative design limits. In recent years, a more rigorous probabilistic approach that incorporates material strength distributions has become an important solution. In the probabilistic approach, the probability density functions of material strength properties underpin the design criteria. Here, the objective of this study is to identify the density distribution functions that best describe tensile properties of irradiated F82H to define a reference strength for DEMO design. Due to the limited number of existing data, this study specifically employs a Bayesian prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulations to determine a material reference value with statistical reliability and to investigate its effectiveness. For example, the dependence of tensile properties of 300 °C irradiated materials on irradiation damage and the range predicted by 95% Bayesian estimation was evaluated. As a statistical model for the dose dependence of statistical parameters, the normal distribution exhibited a better fit for 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, whereas the distribution of total elongation data gave comparable reference values for both the normal and Weibull distribution models. Both models gave comparable criteria for the distribution of total elongation data. The Weibull model also gave better results for uniform elongation. The function best describing the model was a logarithmic law for both 0.2% proof strength and tensile strength, while a power law for both total and uniform elongation, which allowed for more comprehensive data prediction of irradiation data with statistical accuracy for DEMO reactor design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗