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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Unknown Waveform Detection by Learning Intra and Inter-domain Dependencies with Advanced Attention Fusion Mechanisms

Detection of unknown waveforms in mission-critical communications is a crucial area of interest for the Department of Energy (DoE). Traditional methods and recent deep learning-based approaches often assume that the training set includes all possible classes, which is impractical for detecting new waveforms. This limitation gives rise to the problem of open-set recognition (OSR), which involves correctly identifying known classes while detecting and rejecting unknown or unseen classes. To address this limitation, we propose a novel dual-domain complex-valued neural architecture that jointly processes time-domain and frequency-domain signal representations using transformer mechanisms. A transformer model is a deep learning architecture that uses self-attention mechanisms to process and learn relationships in sequential data. Our model employs a cosine similarity loss to extract domain-specific features and incorporates a transformer architecture in the latent space to weigh the importance of different features from the time and frequency domains. The transformer layer includes stacked self-attention and cross-attention modules to learn intra-domain and inter-domain dependencies, creating a more holistic signal representation. An attention-based fusion module intelligently combines the time and frequency-domain features using multi-head attention, enabling the network to learn the optimal feature for each domain in each input signal. Quantitative results demonstrate the impact of these architectural choices on overall performance, showing significant improvement after incorporating self and cross-attention modules and using complex attention fusion over simple weighted fusion. Our ongoing work will focus on addressing the limitations of threshold-based OSR methods by developing a novel generative framework that integrates a conditional diffusion probabilistic model (DPM). DPM is a generative framework that learns to synthesize complex data by reversing a gradual noising process using a neural network trained to denoise step-by-step. Our goal is to leverage the inherent strengths of DPMs for identifying unknown signals more robustly. One primary advantage of using a DPM is its ability to provide a more reliable anomaly score based on the model's reconstruction error, rather than relying solely on classifier confidence. Additionally, the iterative denoising process of DPMs makes this approach naturally resilient to low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) conditions, where traditional methods often fail. By implementing this generative framework, we aim to enhance the model's capability to accurately detect unknown waveforms and maintain performance in challenging environments.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Watch what you say, your computer might be listening: A review of automated speech recognition

Spoken language is the most convenient and natural means by which people interact with each other and is, therefore, a promising candidate for human-machine interactions. Speech also offers an additional channel for hands-busy applications, complementing the use of motor output channels for control. Current speech recognition systems vary considerably across a number of important characteristics, including vocabulary size, speaking mode, training requirements for new speakers, robustness to acoustic environments, and accuracy. Algorithmically, these systems range from rule-based techniques through more probabilistic or self-learning approaches such as hidden Markov modeling and neural networks. This tutorial begins with a brief summary of the relevant features of current speech recognition systems and the strengths and weaknesses of the various algorithmic approaches.

Degennaro, Stephen V.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic partition of unity networks for high–dimensional regression problems

We explore the probabilistic partition of unity network (PPOU-Net) model in the context of high-dimensional regression problems and propose a general framework focusing on adaptive dimensionality reduction. With the proposed framework, the target function is approximated by a mixture of experts model on a low-dimensional manifold, where each cluster is associated with a fixed-degree polynomial. We present a training strategy that leverages the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm. During the training, we alternate between (i) applying gradient descent to update the DNN coefficients; and (ii) using closed-form formulae derived from the EM algorithm to update the mixture of experts model parameters. Under the probabilistic formulation, step (ii) admits the form of embarrassingly paralleliazable weighted least-squares solves. The PPOU-Nets consistently outperform the baseline fully-connected neural networks of comparable sizes in numerical experiments of various data dimensions. Here, we also explore the proposed model in applications of quantum computing, where the PPOU-Nets act as surrogate models for cost landscapes associated with variational quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2021

Data-driven landslide nowcasting at the global scale

Landslides affect nearly every country in the world each year. To better understand this global hazard, the Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model was developed previously. LHASA version 1 combines satellite precipitation estimates with a global landslide susceptibility map to produce a gridded map of potentially hazardous areas from 60° North-South every 3 h. LHASA version 1 categorizes the world’s land surface into three ratings: high, moderate, and low hazard with a single decision tree that first determines if the last seven days of rainfall were intense, then evaluates landslide susceptibility. LHASA version 2 has been developed with a data-driven approach. The global susceptibility map was replaced with a collection of explanatory variables, and two new dynamically varying quantities were added: snow and soil moisture. Along with antecedent rainfall, these variables modulated the response to current daily rainfall. In addition, the Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) was supplemented with several inventories of rainfall-triggered landslide events. These factors were incorporated into the machine-learning framework XGBoost, which was trained to predict the presence or absence of landslides over the period 2015–2018, with the years 2019–2020 reserved for model evaluation. As a result of these improvements, the new global landslide nowcast was twice as likely to predict the occurrence of historical landslides as LHASA version 1, given the same global false positive rate. Furthermore, the shift to probabilistic outputs allows users to directly manage the trade-off between false negatives and false positives, which should make the nowcast useful for a greater variety of geographic settings and applications. In a retrospective analysis, the trained model ran over a global domain for 5 years, and results for LHASA version 1 and version 2 were compared. Due to the importance of rainfall and faults in LHASA version 2, nowcasts would be issued more frequently in some tropical countries, such as Colombia and Papua New Guinea; at the same time, the new version placed less emphasis on arid regions and areas far from the Pacific Rim. LHASA version 2 provides a nearly real-time view of global landslide hazard for a variety of stakeholders.

XGBoos↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven wind turbine wake modeling via probabilistic machine learning

Wind farm design primarily depends on the variability of the wind turbine wake flows to the atmospheric wind conditions and the interaction between wakes. Physics-based models that capture the wake flow field with high-fidelity are computationally very expensive to perform layout optimization of wind farms, and, thus, data-driven reduced-order models can represent an efficient alternative for simulating wind farms. In this work, we use real-world light detection and ranging (LiDAR) measurements of wind-turbine wakes to construct predictive surrogate models using machine learning. Specifically, we first demonstrate the use of deep autoencoders to find a low-dimensional latent space that gives a computationally tractable approximation of the wake LiDAR measurements. Then, we learn the mapping between the parameter space and the (latent space) wake flow fields using a deep neural network. Additionally, we also demonstrate the use of a probabilistic machine learning technique, namely, Gaussian process modeling, to learn the parameter-space-latent-space mapping in addition to the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the data. Finally, to cope with training large datasets, we demonstrate the use of variational Gaussian process models that provide a tractable alternative to the conventional Gaussian process models for large datasets. Furthermore, we introduce the use of active learning to adaptively build and improve a conventional Gaussian process model predictive capability. Overall, we find that our approach provides accurate approximations of the wind-turbine wake flow field that can be queried at an orders-of-magnitude cheaper cost than those generated with high-fidelity physics-based simulations.

Deep neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wattile: Probabilistic Deep Learning-based Forecasting of Building Energy Consumption [SWR-20-94]

Accurate energy forecasting is becoming critical due to many reasons: i ) optimal distributed energy resources operations and dispatch, ii) fault detection and diagnostics, and iii) meeting operational energy efficiency targets. Wattile uses deep learning (DL) for the building's short-term load forecasting application. Two specific types of neural networks called, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S) models are used to make predictions. Forecasting models are trained using online historical weather and occupancy indicator data streams from the Intelligent Campus Program's data acquisition systems at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for main meters and sub-meters of multiple building types. These models use probabilistic methods to provide quantile-based forecasts in addition to nominal conditional median predictions of electricity consumption.

Frank, Stephen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How Autonomous Intelligent Systems Can Facilitate Earth-independent Medical Care: Going Beyond Telepresence

During the last decade, teleoperated robotic systems have extended humans’ sensorimotor competence to digitally fly beyond the physical barrier of distance and scale and thus transmit sensorimotor skills of the human through direct communication. Telepresence capabilities have enabled tele-physical remote access at small scales thanks to telerobotic mediums. Although the concept was initially motivated by space applications, such technologies quickly have expanded into the medical domain and resulted in teleoperated medical robots, including telerobotic surgical systems (such as the da Vinci surgical system). Effective telepresence fundamentally depends on an agile, reliable, and secure communication medium that can transmit real-time information between the operator and a remote device. However, direct telepresence may not be achievable for long-duration exploration spaceflight missions. Thus, autonomous systems and local intelligence represent potential solutions to the aforementioned issues. One example solution employs demonstration systems which enable learning from the pre-captured inputs of a skilled human operator. These will be computationally modeled and later probabilistically replicated toward the completion of remote physical tasks when direct telepresence is not viable - such as under communication blackout conditions. In other words, trained autonomous systems (e.g., robots) can perform remote operations that mimic the physical performance of experts during remote operations/training. Beyond learning the physics of the task, autonomous agents can also be used to conduct algorithmic decision-making that mimics the higher-level cognition of the expert. Thus, using an autonomous system, pre-trained cognitive and manipulation-based skills can be leveraged (acquired during pre-mission events) to produce digital twins of an intelligent operator. Such systems can be used for the real-time conduction of intricate tasks in complex and unstructured environments. Such systems will operationalize “cognitive digital twins” and can expand the reach of human cognition and manipulation through the power of data-driven learning from demonstration algorithms. This system category will be discussed as a fully autonomous operation in this talk. In addition to the above, we will also propose and discuss the possibility of partial-automation using remote intelligence and remote sensing. In contrast to full automation, partial automation can close the loop through a local operator equipped with augmented sensory awareness through wearable systems. Such technologies will allow the local operator to conduct delicate tasks while being guided using sensory augmentation and being monitored to gauge her/his level of cognitive focus and performance. The difference with the previous category is that a remote human will conduct the task. Further, rather than making a digital twin of human cognition, we will augment the control inputs of the local human to match those of the skilled expert operator who is not accessible in real-time. Going beyond classic telepresence and thus approaching intelligent telepresence, our vision is that autonomous agents will eventually enable the safe, consistent and efficient delivery of complex, remote and smart medical care during space exploration across operators in an Earth-independent fashion. We will discuss our collective vision from NASA and MERIIT@NYU lab in this talk.

Telepresence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of machine learning for the estimation of electron energy distribution from optical emission spectra

Abstract This paper discusses the use of probabilistic deep neural networks for the prediction of the electron energy probability function in low-temperature non-thermal plasmas. The neural networks are trained using optical emission spectroscopy and Langmuir probe measurements, with the goal of providing a reliable estimate of the electron energy probability function solely from optical emission data. The performance of both non-Bayesian and Bayesian networks is evaluated. It is found that Bayesian models are preferable as they assign a higher level of uncertainty to their prediction especially when the dataset used to train them is small. This work describes one of the many potential applications of machine learning in plasma science and technology.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models for fast and high-fidelity whole-event simulation in high-energy heavy-ion experiments

Artificial intelligence (AI) generative models, such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), variational autoencoders, and normalizing flows, have been widely used and studied as efficient alternatives for traditional scientific simulations. However, they have several drawbacks, including training instability and inability to cover the entire data distribution, especially for regions where data are rare. This is particularly challenging for whole-event, full-detector simulations in high-energy heavy-ion experiments, such as sPHENIX at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and Large Hadron Collider experiments, where thousands of particles are produced per event and interact with the detector. This work investigates the effectiveness of denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) as an AI-based generative surrogate model for the sPHENIX experiment that includes the heavy-ion event generation and response of the entire calorimeter stack. DDPM performance in sPHENIX simulation data is compared with a popular rival, GANs. Results show that both DDPMs and GANs can reproduce the data distribution where the examples are abundant (low-to-medium calorimeter energies). Nonetheless, DDPMs significantly outperform GANs, especially in high-energy regions where data are rare. Additionally, DDPMs exhibit superior stability compared to GANs. The results are consistent between both central and peripheral centrality heavy-ion collision events. Moreover, DDPMs offer a substantial speedup of approximately a factor of 100 compared to the traditional Geant4 simulation method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗
DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
DOE OSTI2023

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic locked mode predictor in the presence of a resistive wall and finite island saturation in tokamaks

We present a framework for estimating the probability of locking to an error field in a rotating tokamak plasma. This leverages machine learning methods trained on data from a mode-locking model, including an error field, resistive magnetohydrodynamics modeling of the plasma, a resistive wall, and an external vacuum region, leading to a fifth-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) system. It is an extension of the model without a resistive wall introduced by Akçay et al. [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. Tearing mode saturation by a finite island width is also modeled. We vary three pairs of control parameters in our studies: the momentum source plus either the error field, the tearing stability index, or the island saturation term. The order parameters are the time-asymptotic values of the five ODE variables. Normalization of them reduces the system to 2D and facilitates the classification into locked (L) or unlocked (U) states, as illustrated by Akçay et al., [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. This classification splits the control space into three regions: L̂, with only L states; Û, with only U states; and a hysteresis (hysteretic) region Ĥ, with both L and U states. In regions L̂ and Û, the cubic equation of torque balance yields one real root. Region Ĥ has three roots, allowing bifurcations between the L and U states. The classification of the ODE solutions into L/U is used to estimate the locking probability, conditional on the pair of the control parameters, using a neural network. We also explore estimating the locking probability for a sparse dataset, using a transfer learning method based on a dense model dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗