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Multi-Scale/Multi-Functional Probabilistic Composite Fatigue

A multi-level (multi-scale/multi-functional) evaluation is demonstrated by applying it to three different sample problems. These problems include the probabilistic evaluation of a space shuttle main engine blade, an engine rotor and an aircraft wing. The results demonstrate that the blade will fail at the highest probability path, the engine two-stage rotor will fail by fracture at the rim and the aircraft wing will fail at 109 fatigue cycles with a probability of 0.9967.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

Multiscale/Multifunctional Probabilistic Composite Fatigue

A multilevel (multiscale/multifunctional) evaluation is demonstrated by applying it to three different sample problems. These problems include the probabilistic evaluation of a space shuttle main engine blade, an engine rotor and an aircraft wing. The results demonstrate that the blade will fail at the highest probability path, the engine two-stage rotor will fail by fracture at the rim and the aircraft wing will fail at 109 fatigue cycles with a probability of 0.9967.

Chamis, Christos C.↗

NASA-Langley Research Center's participation in a round-robin comparison between some current crack-propagation prediction methods

A round-robin study was conducted which evaluated and compared different methods currently in practice for predicting crack growth in surface-cracked specimens. This report describes the prediction methods used by the Fracture Mechanics Engineering Section, at NASA-Langley Research Center, and presents a comparison between predicted crack growth and crack growth observed in laboratory experiments. For tests at higher stress levels, the correlation between predicted and experimentally determined crack growth was generally quite good. For tests at lower stress levels, the predicted number of cycles to reach a given crack length was consistently higher than the experimentally determined number of cycles. This consistent overestimation of the number of cycles could have resulted from a lack of definition of crack-growth data at low values of the stress intensity range. Generally, the predicted critical flaw sizes were smaller than the experimentally determined critical flaw sizes. This underestimation probably resulted from using plane-strain fracture toughness values to predict failure rather than the more appropriate values based on maximum load.

Hudson, C. M.↗

Internal stresses in Phobos and other triaxial bodies

The unusual dynamical behavior of Phobos, its strange appearance, and its mysterious network of grooves all make it an intriguing object. Geophysical studies, though, have been hampered by the lack of suitable theories applicable to nonspherical bodies. In this paper the Martian satellites are modeled as homogeneous, elastic triaxial ellipsoids subject to tidal, rotational, and self-gravitational stresses. A novel semianalytical treatment then gives the stress and strain fields throughout their interiors. Yield phenomena and their possible surface expressions are also investigated. The results indicate that Phobos and Deimos have always been stable with respect to tidal fracture or disruption, but that Phobos will probably break up before colliding with Mars. Applications of the new formulation to other nonspherical bodies in the solar system are also discussed.

Dobrovolskis, A. R.↗

An Eddy Current Case Study using NASA’s Transfer Function and Limited-Sample Probability of Detection Guidebooks

Probability of detection (POD) requirements for NASA fracture-critical human-rated systems can be met by (1) claiming ‘similarity’ to NASA Standard Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) flaw sizes or (2) by inspector-specific POD demonstration, known as NASA Special NDE. Standard NDE flaw sizes are intended to represent the detection capability of most qualified inspectors, and were primarily based on POD studies in the development of the Space Shuttle Program Orbiter fracture control plan. However, these Standard NDE flaw sizes were based on fatigue cracks in flat panels of one material alloy over a limited range of panel thicknesses. While the POD study was comprehensive, the inspection conditions are relatively narrow. An evaluation of similarity between the Standard NDE POD study and flight component conditions is required to apply Standard NDE to specific flight component inspections. A similarity evaluation may include differences in materials, surface finish, component geometry (e.g., curvature, corners, welds), and inspection access. Similarity is typically based on a qualitative engineering evaluation. Recently, NASA published a quantitative methodology to assess similarity. If similarity is not supported by test and analysis, then the methodology provides a transfer function of flaw size for Special NDE POD demonstration. NASA recommends that Special POD demonstrations use flaws that are flight-like or more difficult to detect than flight component flaws, which are commonly induced fatigue cracks. Often, it is not feasible to induce fatigue cracks in flight component geometry, and therefore, a simpler representative geometry is used, commonly a flat panel, for POD demonstration. Inducing cracks in simple geometry specimens can be time-consuming and expensive, and thus, minimizing the number of flawed specimens is desired. Traditionally, NASA Special NDE demonstration was limited to MIL-HDBK-1823A methods or the binomial point-estimate method (PEM), commonly known as 29/29. Recently, NASA published a limited-sample POD (LS-POD) methodology for signal-response NDE techniques (e.g., eddy current) that provides POD demonstration with fewer specimens than previous approaches. LS-POD suggests a minimum of 10 flawed specimens, compared to 29 in the PEM and the suggested minimum of 40 from MIL-HDBK-1823A. The methodology also includes new guidance on evaluating the probability of false calls. In this presentation, these new transfer function and LS-POD methodologies are described and illustrated through an eddy current detection capability of far-side flaws on thin welded panels. A geometry-based transfer function is developed using electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches in flight component and simple geometry to estimate the Special NDE flaw size that is representative of the critical initial flaw size required by the fracture analysis. Then, fatigue cracks are induced in simple flat panels of the transferred flaw size, and the LS-POD methodology is used for Special NDE demonstration.

P. A. Parker↗

Application of ERTS-A imagery to fracture related mine safety hazards in the coal mining industry

The author has identified the following significant results. The most important result to date is the demonstration of the special value of repetitive ERTS-1 multiband coverage for detecting previously unknown fracture lineaments despite the presence of a deep glacial overburden. The Illinois Basin is largely covered with glacial drift and few rock outcrops are present. A contribution to the geological understanding of Illinois and Indiana has been made. Analysis of ERTS-1 imagery has provided useful information to the State of Indiana concerning the surface mined lands. The contrast between healthy vegetation and bare ground as imaged by Band 7 is sharp and substantial detail can be obtained concerning the extent of disturbed lands, associated water bodies, large haul roads, and extent of mined lands revegetation. Preliminary results of analysis suggest a reasonable correlation between image-detected fractures and mine roof fall accidents for a few areas investigated. ERTS-1 applications to surface mining operations appear probable, but further investigations are required. The likelihood of applying ERTS-1 derived fracture data to improve coal mine safety in the entire Illinois Basin is suggested from studies conducted in Indiana.

Wier, C. E.↗

Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Martian tension fractures and the formation of grabens and collapse features at Valles Marineris

Simple models of the Martian crust are summarized that predict extensional deformation style on the basis of depth, material friction and strength, and hydraulic conditions appropriate to the planet. These models indicate that tension fractures may be common features on Mars, given adequate differential stress conditions. Examples of tension fractures on Mars inferred from morphological criteria are examined based on the probable geologic conditions in which they formed and on model constraints. It is proposed that the grabens and collapse features of Valles Marineris are controlled by tension fractures in intact basement rocks that lie below impact ejecta.

Tanaka, K. L.↗

Creep life prediction based on stochastic model of microstructurally short crack growth

A nondimensional model of microstructurally short crack growth in creep is developed based on a detailed observation of the creep fracture process of 304 stainless steel. In order to deal with the scatter of small crack growth rate data caused by microstructural inhomogeneity, a random variable technique is used in the model. A cumulative probability of the crack length at an arbitary time, G(bar a, bar t), and that of the time when a crack reaches an arbitary length, F(bar t, bar a), are obtained numerically by means of a Monte Carlo method. G(bar a, bar t), and F(bar t, bar a) are the probabilities for a single crack. However, multiple cracks generally initiate on the surface of a smooth specimen from the early stage of creep life to the final stage. TAking into account the multiple crack initiations, the actual crack length distribution observed on the surface of a specimen is predicted by the combination of probabilities for a single crack. The prediction shows a fairly good agreement with the experimental result for creep of 304 stainless steel at 923 K. The probability of creep life is obtained from an assumption that creep fracture takes place when the longest crack reaches a critical length. The observed and predicted scatter of the life is fairly small for the specimens tested.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

Creep life prediction based on stochastic model of microstructurally short crack growth

A nondimensional model of microstructurally short crack growth in creep is developed based on a detailed observation of the creep fracture process of 304 stainless steel. In order to deal with the scatter of small crack growth rate data caused by microstructural inhomogeneity, a random variable technique is used in the model. A cumulative probability of the crack length at an arbitrary time, G(bar a, bar t), and that of the time when a crack reaches an arbitrary length, F(bar t, bar a), are obtained numerically by means of a Monte Carlo method. G(bar a, bar t), and F(bar t, bar a) are the probabilities for a single crack. However, multiple cracks generally initiate on the surface of a smooth specimen from the early stage of creep life to the final stage. Taking into account the multiple crack initiations, the actual crack length distribution observed on the surface of a specimen is predicted by the combination of probabilities for a single crack. The prediction shows a fairly good agreement with the experimental result for creep of 304 stainless steel at 923 K. The probability of creep life is obtained from an assumption that creep fracture takes place when the longest crack reaches a critical length. The observed and predicted scatter of the life is fairly small for the specimens tested.

Kitamura, Takayuki↗

Geologic Mapping of the V-36 Thetis Regio Quadrangle: 2008 Progress Report

As a result of mapping, eleven material stratigraphic units and three structural units have been identified and mapped. The material units include (from older to younger): tessera terrain material (tt), material of densely fractured plains (pdf), material of fractured and ridged plains (pfr), material of shield plains (psh), material of plains with wrinkle ridges (pwr), material of smooth plains of intermediate brightness (psi), material of radardark smooth plains (psd), material of lineated plains (pli) material of lobate plains (plo), material of craters having no radar-dark haloes (c1), and material of craters having clear dark haloes (c2). The morphologies and probably the nature of the material units in the study area are generally similar to those observed in other regions of Venus [2]. The youngest units are lobate plains (plo) which here typically look less lobate than in other areas of the planet. Close to them in age are smooth plains which are indeed smooth and represented by two varieties mentioned above. Lineated plains (pli) are densely fractured in a geometrically regular way. Plains with wrinkle ridges, being morphologically similar to those observed in other regions, here occupy unusually small areas. Shield (psh) plains here are also not abundant. Locally they show wrinkle ridging. Fractured and ridged plains (pfr), which form in other regions, the so called ridge belts, are observed as isolated areas of clusters of ridged plains surrounded by other units. Densely fractured plains (pdf) are present in relatively small areas in association with coronae and corona-like features. Tessera terrain (tt) is dissected by structures oriented in two or more directions. Structures are so densely packed that the morphology (and thus nature) of the precursor terrain is not known. Structural units include tessera transitional terrain (ttt), fracture belts (fb) and rifted terrain (rt). Tessera transitional terrain was first identified and mapped by [4] as areas of fractured and ridged plains (pfr) and densely fractured plains (pdf) deformed by transverse faults that made it formally resemble tessera terrain (tt). The obvious difference between units tt and ttt is the recognizable morphology of precursor terrain of unit ttt. Fracture belts are probably ancient rift zones [3]. Rifted terrain (rt), as in other regions of Venus, is so saturated with faults that according to the recommendation of [1, 5] it should be mapped as a structural unit.

Basilevsky, A. T.↗

The origin of fluvial valleys and early geologic history, Aeolis Quadrangle, Mars

A valley genesis model of the southern Aeolis Quadrangle, eastern Mars, is proposed. In response to widespread effusive volcanism in interstratified, ice-reach terrains, local subsidence occurred along fractures/faults, and produced scarps that intersected local aquifers. Heated spring discharges issuing from these scarps may have carved the valleys through a combination of downvalley water, ice, and debris flows, and headward erosion along stratal discontinuities and individual conduit faults and fractures. Fifty-six asymmetric scarps or ridges that are probable thrust faults are mapped. The faults exhibit an orientation vector mean of N 63 deg W +/- 11 deg and they transect the lava plains and the older plateau sequence units. The vector mean for the 264 valleys mapped is N 48 deg W +/- 12 deg, with a larger dispersion about the mean. The similar orientations displayed by thrust faults and valley axes suggest that valley locations are partly controlled by preexisting thrust faults and fracture systems.

Brakenridge, G. Robert↗

Anomaly Detection in Materials Digital Twins with Multiscale ICME for Additive Manufacturing

Detecting anomaly in fatigue and fracture experimental materials science is an interesting yet challenging topic. The reasons are threefold. First, the anomalous microstructure feature that gives rise to structural failure is small, sometimes in the order of 10 -7 of the interrogated volume. This, in turn, results in a highly imbalanced classification problem in machine learning (ML). Second, the consequence is high, in the sense that the test specimen is destructed in such case. Third, the convolution between microstructure stochasticity and the small probability of void nucleation, growth, and coalescence makes failure and fracture a hard-to-predict and challenging problem in materials science due to its irreproducibility, even experimentally. In this paper, we developed a materials digital twin and applied anomaly detection methods to detect voids and anomaly in additive manufacturing (AM). The materials digital twin is driven by two integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) models, which are kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) and crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM). In conclusion, we demonstrated that by using anomaly detection, it is possible to detect voids and other defects in materials digital twin, which paves way for future research in integrating materials digital twin with its physical counterpart.

ICME↗

Distribution, morphology, and origin of ridges and arches in Mare Serenitatis

Lunar mare ridges and arches in Mare Serenitatis were mapped to understand better their mode of formation. Maps of these features indicate that several pre-mare impacts in the Serenitatis area may be responsible for the localization of the circular ridge systems and that the subsurface, pre-mare topography is more complex than previously recognized. Apollo Lunar Sounder cross sections of ridge systems in southern Serenitatis indicate 50 to 100 m of local relief on these features. Small-scale features of ridges, such as medial lineations and lobate margins, do not conclusively define the origin of the ridges. However, estimates of crustal shortening from Lunar Sounder data and the coincidence of the major ridge system with the Serenitatis mascon suggest that ridges and arches were formed by gravitational readjustments of the mare fill along four probable impact structures and along a north-trending fracture pattern.

Maxwell, T. A.↗

NASA NDE Program

This viewgraph presentation describes the NASA Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Program. The contents include: 1) NASA NDE Program; 2) Nondestructive Evaluation Requirements for Fracture Critical Components; 3) Directed Design of Experiments for Probability of Detection (DOEPOD) A8002L data from NTIAC Capabilities Data Book, 1997; 4) Directed Design of Experiments for Probability of Detection (DOEPOD) Remove 94 samples from A8002L data; and 5) A8002L data from NTIAC Capabilities Data Book, 1997

Generazio, Edward R.↗

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗