Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability Theory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

Representative Modules for Accelerated Thermal Cycling and Static Load Testing

In this work, we explore the influence of module size on the rate of interconnect solder bond thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) damage and the probability of cell fracture. For the solder bond TMF damage evaluation, structural mechanics models of crystalline silicon PV models are created to solve with the Finite Element Method. For the probability of cell fracture evaluation, Weibull analysis and weakest link theory are employed to resolve the probability of crystalline silicon PV cell fracture when measured as bare cells and when stressed in reduced- and full-sized modules. Results conclusively demonstrate that the rate of solder bond TMF damage is independent of module size, interconnect location across the cell and cell location across the module and that smaller, representative, modules must be loaded to a much higher level than their parent full-sized modules to achieve an equivalent driving force for cell fracture.

accelerated testing↗

Calculation of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations for Ar + –Cl − , Br − , I −

In this computational study, we self-consistently calculate the rate constants of mutual neutralization reactions by incorporating the electron transfer probability, using Landau–Zener state transition theory with inputs derived from ab initio quantum chemistry calculations, into classical trajectory simulations. Electronic structure calculations are done using correlation consistent basis sets with multi-reference configuration interaction to map all the molecular electronic states below the ion-dissociation limit as a function of the distance between the reacting species. Our electronic structure calculations have been significantly improved from our previous work through improved selection of molecular electronic configurations maintaining a fine grid of 1a 0 over a wide range of bond lengths and accurate treatment of spin–orbit couplings. Non-adiabatic coupling matrix elements are calculated with the three-point central difference method near each avoided crossing to estimate the exact crossing point R x and coupling parameter H if , which are inputs to the multi-channel Landau–Zener theory to calculate the electron transition probability. Our approach is applied to estimate the mutual neutralization rate constants for the following ion pairs: Ar + –Cl − , Ar + –Br − , Ar + –I − at ∼133 Pa. Furthermore, our predictions are compared against the experimental data reported. It is seen that the improvement in the electronic structure calculation results in excellent agreement between the simulation results and the available experimental data to within a factor of ∼2 or ∼±50%.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗

Boron Phosphide Films by Reactive Sputtering: Searching for a P‐Type Transparent Conductor

Abstract With an indirect band gap in the visible and a direct band gap at a much higher energy, boron phosphide (BP) holds promise as an unconventional p‐type transparent conductor. This work reports on reactive sputtering of amorphous BP films, their partial crystallization in a P‐containing annealing atmosphere, and extrinsic doping by C and Si. The highest hole concentration to date for p‐type BP (5 × 10 20 cm −3 ) is achieved using C doping under B‐rich conditions. Furthermore, bipolar doping is confirmed to be feasible in BP. An anneal temperature of at least 1000 °C is necessary for crystallization and dopant activation. Hole mobilities are low and indirect optical transitions are stronger than that predicted by theory. Low crystalline quality probably plays a role in both cases. High figures of merit for transparent conductors might be achievable in extrinsically doped BP films with improved crystalline quality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equivariant, safe and sensitive — graph networks for new physics

This study introduces a novel Graph Neural Network (GNN) architecture that leverages infrared and collinear (IRC) safety and equivariance to enhance the analysis of collider data for Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) discoveries. By integrating equivariance in the rapidity-azimuth plane with IRC-safe principles, our model significantly reduces computational overhead while ensuring theoretical consistency in identifying BSM scenarios amidst Quantum Chromodynamics backgrounds. The proposed GNN architecture demonstrates superior performance in tagging semi-visible jets, highlighting its potential as a robust tool for advancing BSM search strategies at high-energy colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The bond energy of UN + : Guided ion beam studies of the reactions of U + with N 2 and NO

In this work, a guided ion beam tandem mass spectrometer was used to study the reactions of U + with N 2 and NO. Reaction cross sections were measured over a wide range of energy for both systems. In each reaction, UN + is formed by an endothermic process, thereby enabling the direct measurement of the threshold energy and determination of the UN + bond dissociation energy. For the reaction of U + + N 2 , a threshold energy (E 0 ) of 4.02 ± 0.11 eV was measured, leading to D 0 (UN + ) = 5.73 ± 0.11 eV. The reaction of U + + NO yields UO + through an exothermic, barrierless process that proceeds with 94 ± 23% efficiency at the lowest energy. Analysis of the endothermic UN + cross section in this reaction provides E 0 = 0.72 ± 0.11 eV and, therefore, D 0 (UN + ) = 5.78 ± 0.11 eV. Averaging the values obtained from both reactions, we report D 0 (UN + ) = 5.76 ± 0.13 eV as our best value (uncertainty of two standard deviations). Combined with precise literature values for the ionization energies of U and UN, we also derive D 0 (UN) = 5.86 ± 0.13 eV. Both bond dissociation energies agree well with high-level theoretical treatments in the literature. The formation of UN + in reaction of U + with NO also exhibits a considerable increase in reaction probability above ~3 eV. Theory suggests that this may be consistent with the formation of UN + in excited quintet spin states, which we hypothesize are dynamically favored because the number of 5f electrons in reactants and products is conserved.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗

Entropy and its Relationship with Statistics

The purpose of our report is to discuss the notion of entropy and its relationship with statistics. Our goal is to provide a manner in which you can think about entropy, its central role within information theory and relationship with statistics. We review various relationships between information theory and statistics—nearly all are well-known but unfortunately are often not recognized. Entropy quantities the "average amount of surprise" in a random variable and lies at the heart of information theory, which studies the transmission, processing, extraction, and utilization of information. For us, data is information. What is the distinction between information theory and statistics? Information theorists work with probability distributions. Instead, statisticians work with samples. In so many words, information theory using samples is the practice of statistics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A reaction mechanism for plasma electrolysis of AgNO 3 forming silver nanoclusters and nanoparticles

In plasma-driven solution electrolysis (PDSE), gas-phase plasma-produced species interact with an electrolytic solution to produce, for example, nanoparticles. An atmospheric pressure plasma jet (APPJ) directed onto a liquid solution containing a metallic salt will promote reduction of metallic ions in solution, generating metallic clusters that nucleate to form nanoparticles. In this article, results from a computational investigation are discussed of a PDSE process in which a radio-frequency APPJ sustained in helium impinges on a silver nitrate solution, resulting in growth of silver nanoparticles. A reaction mechanism was developed and implemented in a global plasma chemistry model to predict nanoparticle growth. To develop the reaction mechanism, density functional theory was used to generate probable silver growth pathways up to Ag 9 . Neutral clusters larger than Ag 9 were classified as nanoparticles. Kinetic reaction rate coefficients for thermodynamically favorable growth pathways were estimated based on an existing, empirically determined base reaction mechanism for smaller Ag particle interactions. These rates were used in conjunction with diffusion-controlled reaction rate coefficients that were calculated for other Ag species. The role of anions in reduction of Agn ions in forming nanoparticles is also discussed. Oxygen containing impurities or admixtures to the helium, air entrainment into the APPJ, and dissociation of saturated water vapor above the solution can produce additional reactive oxygen species in solution, resulting in the production of anions and O 2 – in particular. For a given molarity, delivering a sufficient fluence of reducing species will produce similar nanoparticle densities and sizes for all applied power levels. In conclusion, comparisons are made to alternate models for nanoparticle formation, including charged nanoparticles and use of direct current plasmas.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evolution of the age-included nearest pair distribution in disperse multiphase flows

The age of the nearest particle pair is introduced as the difference between the current time and the most recent time when the nearest particle pair was formed. The evolution equation for the age-included nearest pair distribution function is derived. With the assumption of random destruction of the nearest particle pairs, the evolution equation predicts the exponential probability distribution of the ages of the nearest particle pairs. Particle-resolved numerical simulations with moving particles are performed to verify this prediction. The equation is then used to derive the evolution equation for the particle–fluid–particle (PFP) stress, which is known to be related to hyperbolicity of the two-fluid equations. It is found that the relaxation time of the age probability distribution is also the relaxation time for the PFP stress. Guided by the closure terms in the PFP stress evolution equation, we study kinematics of the nearest particle pairs in the particle-resolved simulations for flows caused by sedimentation of the particles with initially isotropic and homogeneous particle distributions. At the steady states, the particle Reynolds numbers are around 20. Anisotropy and inhomogeneity of particle distributions are seen to develop in these flows. The mean distances to the nearest particles and evolution of the distribution of the Voronoi cell volumes are studied. We also found the PFP stress is closely related to the changes in these inter-particle scale quantities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Theory of Cation Solvation in the Helmholtz Layer of Li-Ion Battery Electrolytes

The solvation environments of Li + in conventional nonaqueous battery electrolytes, such as LiPF 6 in mixtures of ethylene carbaronate (EC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC), are often used to rationalize transport properties and solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation. Solvation environments in the compact electrical double layer (EDL) next to the electrode, also known as the Helmholtz layer, determine (partially) what species can react to form the SEI, with bulk solvation environments often being used as a proxy. Here, we develop and test a theory of cation solvation in the Helmholtz layer of nonaqueous Li-ion battery electrolytes. First, we validate the theory against bulk and diffuse EDL atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of LiPF 6 EC/EMC mixtures as a function of surface charge, where we find the theory can qualitatively capture the solvation environments. Next, we turn to the Helmholtz layer, where we find the main effect of the solvation structures next to the electrode is an apparent reduction in the number of binding sites between Li + and the solvents, again where we find reasonable agreement with our developed theory. Finally, by solving a simplified version of the theory, we find that the probability of Li + binding to each solvent remains equal to the bulk probability, suggesting that the bulk solvation environments are a reasonable place to start when understanding battery electrolytes. Our developed formalism can be parametrized from bulk MD simulations and used to predict the solvation environments in the Helmholtz layer through reducing the number of available coordination sites, which can be used to determine what could react and form the SEI.

Helmholtz↗

The entropy of galaxy spectra: how much information is encoded?

Abstract The inverse problem of extracting the stellar population content of galaxy spectra is analysed here from a basic standpoint based on information theory. By interpreting spectra as probability distribution functions, we find that galaxy spectra have high entropy, thus leading to a rather low effective information content. The highest variation in entropy is unsurprisingly found in regions that have been well studied for decades with the conventional approach. We target a set of six spectral regions that show the highest variation in entropy – the 4000 Å break being the most informative one. As a test case with real data, we measure the entropy of a set of high-quality spectra from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and contrast entropy-based results with the traditional method based on line strengths. The data are classified into star-forming (SF), quiescent (Q), and active galactic nucleus (AGN) galaxies, and show – independently of any physical model – that AGN spectra can be interpreted as a transition between SF and Q galaxies, with SF galaxies featuring a more diverse variation in entropy. The high level of entanglement complicates the determination of population parameters in a robust, unbiased way, and affects traditional methods that compare models with observations, as well as machine learning (especially deep learning) algorithms that rely on the statistical properties of the data to assess the variations among spectra. Entropy provides a new avenue to improve population synthesis models so that they give a more faithful representation of real galaxy spectra.

Ferreras, Ignacio (ORCID:0000000345843127)↗

Elastic dijet production in electron scattering on a longitudinally polarized proton at small x : A portal to orbital angular momentum distributions

We calculate the elastic production of dijets from electron collisions with a longitudinally polarized proton target at small values of the Bjorken x variable. Building on the pioneering proposals of Hatta [Gluon orbital angular momentum at small- x , .] and Bhattacharya [Signature of the gluon orbital angular momentum, ., Probing the quark orbital angular momentum at electron-ion colliders using exclusive π 0 production, ., and Exploring orbital angular momentum and spin-orbit correlation for gluons at the Electron-Ion Collider, .] for measuring the quark and gluon orbital angular momentum (OAM) distributions, our focus is on both the longitudinal double spin asymmetry (DSA) and longitudinal single spin asymmetry (SSA). We compute the numerators of these asymmetries in the small- x formalism of the light-cone operator treatment. Utilizing the small- x expressions for the OAM distributions derived earlier in Kovchegov and Manley [Orbital angular momentum at small x revisited, .], we demonstrate that the DSA provides a robust probe for both the quark and gluon OAM distributions within the proton. In contrast, we find that while the SSA is also sensitive to the OAM distributions, extraction of the latter from the SSA would require new developments in small- x theory and phenomenology, and is probably not feasible at this point in time. These findings highlight the potential of DSA measurements in elastic dijet production at the future Electron-Ion Collider to provide the first-ever direct access to the quark and gluon OAM distributions at small x , paving the way for new insights into the proton spin puzzle. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kovchegov, Yuri V. (ORCID:0000000169909173)↗

Facet-dependent structure and dissociation of water at pristine IrO 2 /water interfaces

Understanding the microscopic structure of water at metal oxide interfaces is crucial for advancing electrocatalysis. IrO 2 , specifically, has shown exceptional activity for electrochemical water oxidation, but we currently lack a fundamental understanding of how the surface structure of IrO 2 impacts water reactivity. In this work, we developed a machine learning potential trained to first-principles accuracy for modeling IrO 2 /water interfaces across different facets: (110), (100), (101), and (001). Using extensive machine learning molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated the spontaneous dissociation of water molecules at these interfaces. Our results reveal a distinct dissociation probability trend: (110) > (100) ≈ (101) > (001), which we attribute primarily to the reaction thermodynamics of surface water dissociation. A strong correlation is observed between the surface Ir–O bond distances and the dissociation probabilities, highlighting the role of surface geometry in modulating reactivity. As a consequence, the interfacial solvation structures and hydrogen bonding environments are dynamically tuned by the varying water dissociation capabilities across facets. This work elucidates how water dissociation energetics depend on surface orientation and interfacial structure, offering atomistic insights into manipulating reaction chemistry at electrocatalytic interfaces.

organic↗

Employing Weibull Analysis and Weakest Link Theory to Resolve Crystalline Silicon PV Cell Strength Between Bare Cells and Reduced- and Full-Sized Modules

Weibull analysis and weakest link theory are employed to resolve the probability of crystalline silicon PV cell fracture when measured as bare cells and when stressed in reduced- and full-sized modules. Experimental results indicated that the characteristic cell strength is reduced by ~20% once packaged into the laminate of a one-cell module and loaded in four-point flexure (4PF). This experimental observation was shown consistent with a weakest link theory prediction that the strength limiting flaws reside on the surface of the cell's edge. Here, the analysis is ultimately extended to present the equivalent loading of four-cell modules by uniform pressure and 4PF and a uniformly loaded full-sized module and demonstrates that smaller, representative, modules must be loaded to a much higher level than their parent full-sized modules to achieve an equivalent probability for cell fracture.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Effective spin-mixing conductance of topological-insulator/ferromagnet and heavy-metal/ferromagnet spin-orbit-coupled interfaces: A first-principles Floquet-nonequilibrium Green function approach

The spin-mixing conductance (SMC) is a key quantity determining efficiency of spin transport across interfaces. Thus, knowledge of its precise value is required for accurate measurement of parameters quantifying numerous effects in spintronics, such as spin-orbit torque, spin Hall magnetoresistance, spin Hall effect, and spin pumping. However, the standard expression for SMC, provided by the scattering theory in terms of the reflection probability amplitudes, is inapplicable when strong spin-orbit coupling (SOC) is present directly at the interface. This is the precisely the case of topological-insulator/ferromagnet and heavy-metal/ferromagnet interfaces of great contemporary interest. We introduce an approach where first-principles Hamiltonian of these interfaces, obtained from noncollinear density functional theory (ncDFT) calculations, is combined with charge-conserving Floquet-nonequilibrium-Green-function formalism to compute directly the pumped spin current $I^{S_z}_L$ into semi-infinite left lead of two-terminal heterostructures Cu/X/Co/Cu or Y/Co/Cu—where X = Bi 2 Se 3 and Y = Pt or W—due to microwave-driven steadily precessing magnetization of the Co layer. This allows us to extract an effective SMC as a prefactor in $I^{S_z}_L$ versus precession cone angle θ dependence, as long as it remains the same, $I^{S_z}$ ∝ sin 2 θ , as in the case where SOC is absent. By comparing calculations where SOC in switched off versus switched on in ncDFT calculations, we find that SOC consistently reduces the pumped spin current and therefore the effective SMC.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Characterizing leaf-scale fluorescence with spectral invariants

Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is increasingly recognized as a non-destructive probe for tracking terrestrial photosynthesis. Emerging developments in spectral invariants theory provide an innovative and efficient approach for representing SIF radiative transfer processes at the canopy scale. However, modeling leaf-scale fluorescence based on the spectral invariants properties (SIP) remains underexplored. In this study, the spectral invariants theory is employed for the first time to model the leaf-scale total, backward and forward fluorescence (leaf-SIP SIF). The leaf-SIP SIF model separates the leaf-scale radiative transfer process into two distinct components: the wavelength-dependent one associated with leaf biochemical properties, and the wavelength-independent component linked to leaf structural characteristics. The leaf structure-related effects are characterized by two spectrally invariant parameters: the photon recollision probability (p) and the scattering asymmetry parameter (q), which are parameterized using the directly measurable leaf dry matter. Evaluation against field measurements shows that the proposed leaf-SIP SIF model has a good performance, with coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.89, 0.89, 0.90 and root mean squared errors (RMSE) of 1.28, 0.69, 0.74 Wm -2 µm -1 sr -1 , respectively for the total, backward, and forward fluorescence (660–800 nm). The leaf-SIP SIF model with a more concise formulation demonstrates comparable performance with the widely used Fluspect model. Further, the leaf-SIP SIF model provides a simple and efficient approach for simulating leaf-scale fluorescence, with the potential to be integrated into a unified SIP-based model framework for simulating the radiative transfer processes across the soil-leaf-canopy-atmosphere continuum.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Will LISA Detect Harmonic Gravitational Waves from Galactic Cosmic String Loops?

Rapid advancement in the observation of cosmic strings has been made in recent years placing increasingly stringent constraints on their properties, with $G\mu\lesssim 10^{-11}$ from Pulsar Timing Array (PTA). Cosmic string loops with low string tension clump in the Galaxy due to slow loop decay and low gravitational recoil, resulting in great enhancement to loop abundance in the Galaxy. With an average separation of down to just a fraction of a kpc, and the total power of gravitational wave (GW) emission dominated by harmonic modes spanning a wide angular scale, resolved loops located in proximity are powerful, persistent, and highly monochromatic sources of GW with a harmonic signature not replicated by any other sources, making them prime targets for direct detection by the upcoming Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), whose frequency range is well-matched. Unlike detection of bursts where the detection rate scales with loop abundance, the detection rate for harmonic signal is the result of a complex interplay between the strength of GW emission, loop abundance, and other sources of noise, and is most suitably studied through numerical simulations. We develop a robust and flexible framework for simulating loops in the Galaxy for predicting direct detection of harmonic signal from resolved loops by LISA. Our simulation reveals that the most accessible region in the parameter space consists of large loops $\alpha=0.1$ with low tension $10^{-21}\lesssim G\mu\lesssim 10^{-19}$. Direct detection of field theory cosmic strings is unlikely, with the detection probability $p_{\mathrm{det}}\lesssim 2\%$ for a 1-year mission. An extension suggests that direct detection of cosmic superstrings with a low intercommutation probability is very promising. Searching for harmonic GW signal from resolved loops through LISA observations will potentially place physical constraints on string theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

How to calculate the rate constants for nonradiative transitions between the M S components of spin multiplets?

Predicting the rates of spin-dependent processes characterized by nonradiative transitions between electronic states with different spin multiplicities is important for understanding the mechanisms of many photochemical and catalytic reactions. To calculate these rates, it is necessary to define the spin state representation and the couplings between these states that drives the interstate transitions. In this work, we describe three different approaches to calculating the spin-orbit coupling (SOC), transition probabilities, and rate constants between the MS components of the electronic states with different spin multiplicities. We implemented these approaches in our nonadiabatic statistical theory (NAST) software package, which predicts the transition probabilities and rate constants of spin-dependent processes using information obtained from electronic structure calculations. Here, we discuss the advantage and drawbacks of each approach and, as an example, calculate the rate constants for transitions between the spin states in the active site model of the protein rubredoxin.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗