Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Probability of Collision”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

The Top 10 Questions for Active Debris Removal

This slide presentation reviews the requirement and issues around removal of debris from the earth orbital environment. The 10 questions discussed are: 1. Which region (LEO/MEO/GEO) has the fastest projected growth rate and the highest collision activities? 2. Can the commonly-adopted mitigation measures stabilize the future environment? 3. What are the objectives of active debris removal (ADR)? 4. How can effective ADR target selection criteria to stabilize the future LEO environment be defined? 5. What are the keys to remediate the future LEO environment? 6. What is the timeframe for ADR implementation? 7. What is the effect of practical/operational constraints? 8. What are the collision probabilities and masses of the current objects? 9. What are the benefits of collision avoidance maneuvers? 10. What is the next step?

Liou, J. -C.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Calculation of rotational transition probabilities in molecular collisions - Application to N2 + N2

A computational method is proposed to obtain rotational transition probabilities in collisions between two diatomic molecules. The potential method of Rabitz and an exponential approximation are used to solve the semiclassical coupled equations without invoking any perturbational technique. The collision trajectory is determined in the classical modified-wave-number approximation. The method can treat systems involving strong interactions and provide probabilities for transitions even with a multiquantum jump. A simultaneous transition in the rotational states of both molecules, i.e., the rotational-rotational energy transfer, is taken into account. An application to the system N2 + N2 is presented.

Itikawa, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2004

ADS-B within a Multi-Aircraft Simulation for Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management

Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) is an enabling technology for NASA s Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) concept. DAG-TM has the goal of significantly increasing capacity within the National Airspace System, while maintaining or improving safety. Under DAG-TM, aircraft exchange state and intent information over ADS-B with other aircraft and ground stations. This information supports various surveillance functions including conflict detection and resolution, scheduling, and conformance monitoring. To conduct more rigorous concept feasibility studies, NASA Langley Research Center s PC-based Air Traffic Operations Simulation models a 1090 MHz ADS-B communication structure, based on industry standards for message content, range, and reception probability. The current ADS-B model reflects a mature operating environment and message interference effects are limited to Mode S transponder replies and ADS-B squitters. This model was recently evaluated in a Joint DAG-TM Air/Ground Coordination Experiment with NASA Ames Research Center. Message probability of reception vs. range was lower at higher traffic levels. The highest message collision probability occurred near the meter fix serving as the confluence for two arrival streams. Even the highest traffic level encountered in the experiment was significantly less than the industry standard "LA Basin 2020" scenario. Future studies will account for Mode A and C message interference (a major effect in several industry studies) and will include Mode A and C aircraft in the simulation, thereby increasing the total traffic level. These changes will support ongoing enhancements to separation assurance functions that focus on accommodating longer ADS-B information update intervals.

Barhydt, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2018

Realistic Covariance Generation for the GPM Spacecraft

A covariance realism process for NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft is detailed. The GPM spacecraft is in a low earth orbit, and performs collision avoidance maneuvers few times a year. Currently GPM is below the International Space Station (ISS). So, in addition to cataloged debris objects, GPM must contend with smallsat/cubesat objects that are deployed from the ISS. Both operational scenarios require complete knowledge of the expected GPM prediction errors as a function of time. In this study, we present a method for generating realistic predicted covariance that uses linear propagation of the covariance with the addition of process noise. Further analyses are presented for the process noise ''tuning'' that generates an inflation factor based on the observed error statistics of the predictive satellite trajectories when compared to the definitive ones. Different tuning strategies are considered and compared via a Goodness-of-Fit testing for the Gaussian properties of the scaled covariance. SpaceNav's realistic covariance generation approach takes into account the contribution of predicted maneuver errors in the increased propagation uncertainty. Corresponding maneuver uncertainty is injected into the state uncertainty, and is used within the collision avoidance process to determine the collision risk for close approach events that follow a maneuver. This is a critical step in the maneuver planning process that provides the satellite operator with an accurate quantification of the collision probability for planned maneuvers. Using this information, an informed decision can be made to proceed with a maneuver if the collision risk is acceptable. This approach is validated by Monte-Carlo simulations and results are presented.

spacecraft uncertainty propagation↗
NASA NTRS2008

Characterization of the Catalog Fengyun-1C Fragments and Their Long-term Effect on the LEO Environment

The intentional breakup of Fengyun-1C on 11 January 2007 created the most severe orbital debris cloud in history. More than 2500 large fragments were identified and tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network by the end of the year. The altitude where the event occurred was probably the worst location for a major breakup in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, since it was already highly populated with operational satellites and debris generated from previous breakups. The addition of so many fragments not only poses a realistic threat to operational satellites in the region, but also increases the instability (i.e., collision cascade effect) of the debris population there. Preliminary analysis of the large Fengyun-1C fragments indicates that their size and area-to-mass ratio (A/M) distributions are very different from those of other known events. About half of the fragments appear to be composed of light-weight materials and more than 100 of them have A/M values exceeding 1 square meter per kilogram, consistent with thermal blanket pieces. In addition, the orbital elements of the fragments suggest nontrivial velocity gain by the fragment cloud during the impact. These important characteristics were incorporated into a numerical simulation to assess the long-term impact of the Fengyun-1C fragments to the LEO debris environment. The main objectives of the simulation were to evaluate (1) the collision probabilities between the Fengyun-1C fragments and the rest of the catalog population and (2) the collision activities and population growth in the region in the next 100 years.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Debris hazard for the Earth Observing System

The scientific mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS) is modeled to analyze the potential hazard of space debris and its impact on the effectiveness of the program. Specific attention is given to the hazard posed by untrackable debris and the velocities and impact rates of such debris. The NASA Debris Flux Model (DFM) is utilized, and the results are compared to those of the Frag model which predicts the background environment from known parameters and the Screen model for estimating collision probabilities. The probability of damaging impacts is shown to be significant and to increase over time; an EOS spacecraft has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a 1-cm object traveling at 14 km/s. The present analyses demonstrate the need to design the EOS spacecraft for a LEO environment in which collisions with debris are very likely.

Madler, Ronald A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

On the alleged collisional origin of the Kirkwood Gaps

This paper examines two proposed mechanisms whereby asteroidal collisions and close approaches may have given rise to the Kirkwood Gaps. The first hypothesis is that asteroids in near-resonant orbits have markedly increased collision probabilities and so are preferentially destroyed, or suffer decay in population density, within the resonance zones. A simple order-of-magnitude analysis shows that this hypothesis is untenable since it leads to conclusions which are either unrealistic or not in accord with present understanding of asteroidal physics. The second hypothesis is the Brouwer-Jefferys theory that collisions would smooth an asteroidal distribution function, as a function of Jacobi constant, thus forming resonance gaps. This hypothesis is examined by direct numerical integration of 50 asteroid orbits near the 2:1 resonance, with collisions simulated by random variables. No tendency to form a gap was observed.

Heppenheimer, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Collision lifetimes and impact statistics of near-Earth asteroids

We have examined the lifetimes of Near-Earth asteroids (NEA's) by directly computing the collision probabilities with other asteroids and with the terrestrial planets. We compare these to the dynamical lifetimes, and to collisional lifetimes assumed by other workers. We discuss the implications of the differences. The lifetimes of NEA's are important because, along with the statistics of craters on the Earth and Moon, they help us to compute the number of NEA's and the rate at which new NEA's are brought to the vicinity of the Earth. Assuming that the NEA population is in steady-state, the lifetimes determine the flux of new bodies needed to replenish the population. Earlier estimates of the lifetimes ignored (or incompletely accounted for) the differences in the velocities of asteroids as they move in their orbits, so our results differ from (for example) Greenberg and Chapman (1983, Icarus 55, 455) and Wetherill (1988, Icarus 76, 1) by factors of 2 to 10. We have computed the collision rates and relative velocities of NEA's with each other, the main-belt asteroids, and the terrestrial planets, using the corrected method described by Bottke et. al. (1992, GRL, in press). We find that NEA's typically have shorter collisional lifetimes than do main-belt asteroids of the same size, due to their high eccentricities, which typically give them aphelia in the main belt. Consequently, they spend a great deal of time in the main belt, and are moving much slower than the bodies around them, making them 'sitting ducks' for impacts with other asteroids. They cross the paths of many objects, and their typical collision velocities are much higher (10-15 km/s) than the collision velocities (5 km/s) among objects within the main belt. These factors combine to give them substantially shorter lifetimes than had been previously estimated.

Bottke, W. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jupiter orbiter lifetime - The hazard of Galilean satellite collision

An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric, low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Jupiter orbiter lifetime - The hazard of Galilean satellite collision

An assessment of the long-term collision risk is made for an uncontrolled orbiting spacecraft that repeatedly enters the spatial region occupied by the satellites. Numerical data are obtained for 50-year orbit propagations which account approximately for the major perturbative effects of Jupiter oblateness, solar gravity and satellite gravity. A broad statistical viewpoint regarding the question of collision likelihood is adopted and is based on a total sample size of 480 initial orbits distributed among 4 orbit classes, 8 inclinations and 15 initial epochs. Numerical results compare favorably with an analytical prediction formula which shows that eccentric low-inclination orbits have high collision probability.

Friedlander, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The planet crossing asteroid survey: Progress in the analysis of populations and terrestrial-planet cratering rates

The Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey (PCAS) is making steady progress toward the accumulation of the data required to make improved estimates of the populations and cratering rates which can be compared with the existing record of impact events. The PCAS is the chief source of new objects on which to base these calculations over the past decade, and is an integral part of the continuing refinement of the estimates used in planetological applications. An adjunct effort to determine albedo statistics from photometry of UCAS plates is being pursued as well, to better define the magnitude frequency distributions of asteroids. This will improve the quality of the population and collision probability calculations. The survey effort continues to discover new asteroids whose orbital characteristics may reveal the origin and evolution mechanisms reponsible for the transport of the planet-crossing asteroids to the inner solar system.

Helin, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Manmade orbital debris studies at NASA Langley

In the past, flight experiments to define the meteoroid environment near the Earth and in interplanetary space were undertaken. The effectiveness of meteoroid bumpers was investigated. These flight experiments were aboard Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Explorer 46. Hypervelocity impact tests were conducted in the laboratory to study protective structures and the composition of meteoroids from the hundreds of meteor spectra obtained. It was also found that manmade debris presented a similar hazard to spacecraft near the Earth. An assessment of that hazard is made in this paper. An analysis of the collision probability problem with much attention given to the population of small untrackable fragments created during explosions is presented.

Humes, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cosmic dust and space debris; Proceedings of the Topical Meetings and Workshop 6 of the 26th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Toulouse, France, June 30-July 11, 1986

These proceedings encompass topics in the fields of extraterrestrial material samples, IRAS solar system and dust model results, and earth orbit debris. Attention is given to chemical fractionation during high velocity impact, particle deceleration and survival in multiple thin foil targets, and IRAS studies of asteroids, comets, cometary tails, the zodiacal background, and the three-dimensional modeling of interplanetary dust. Also discussed are the evolution of an earth orbit debris cloud, orbital debris due to future space activities, collision probabilities in geosynchronous orbits, and a bitelescopic survey of low altitude orbital debris.

Mcdonnell, J. A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Orbital debris from upper-stage breakup

The present conference on the effects of launch vehicle upper-stage breakup on the orbital debris scenario discusses an analysis of the SPOT 1 Ariane third stage, the explosive fragmentation of orbiting propellant tanks, albedo estimates for debris, Ariane-related debris in deep-space orbit, and the relationship of hypervelocity impacts to upper-stage breakups. Also discussed are the prospects for and the economics of the future removal of orbital debris, collision probabilities in GEO, current operational practices for Delta second stage breakup prevention, breakup-precluding modifications to the Ariane third stage, and the safing of the H-1 second stage after spacecraft separation.

Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The near-earth enhancement of asteroidal over cometary dust

The study deals with a theory suggesting a cometary origin for most of the stratospheric cosmic dust. It is argued, though, that the stratospheric cosmic dust, as well as dust sampled by earth-orbiting collectors, is not representative of the true composition of the zodiacal cloud. A substantial near-earth collection bias enhances the low-velocity component in stratospheric and earth-orbiting collectors. This arises from gravitational focusing, which substantially biases all near-earth micrometeorite collections in favor of the low-velocity component of the interplanetary dust, and atmospheric entry heating, which further biases the stratospheric cosmic dust in favor of the low-velocity component of the interplanetary dust. It is noted that, in addition to these two effects, the increasing collision probability between a dust particle and a nongravitating planet will bias the near-earth collection farther in favor of dust with lower geocentric velocity at the collection opportunity.

Flynn, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Asteroid flux and impact cratering rate on Venus

By the end of 1990, 65 Venus-crossing asteroids were recognized; these represent 59 percent of the known Earth-crossing asteroids. Further studies, chiefly numerical integrations of orbit evolution, may reveal one or two more Venus crossers among the set of discovered asteroids. A Venus crosser was defined as an asteroid whose orbit can intersect the orbit of Venus as a result of secular (long range) perturbations. Venus crossers revolving on orbits that currently overlap the orbit of Venus are called Venapol asteroids, and those on orbit that don't overlap are called Venamor asteroids; 42 Venapols and 23 Venamors were recognized. Collision probabilities with Venus for 60 of the known Venus crossers were determined.

Shoemaker, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space dust and debris; Proceedings of the Topical Meeting of the Interdisciplinary Scientific Commission B (Meetings B2, B3, and B5) of the COSPAR 28th Plenary Meeting, The Hague, Netherlands, June 25-July 6, 1990

The present conference on space dust and debris encompasses orbital debris, in situ measurements and laboratory analysis of space-dust particles, comparative studies of comets, asteroids, and dust, the protection and maneuvering of spacecraft in space-debris environments, and the out-of-elliptic distribution of interplanetary dust derived from near-earth flux. Specific issues addressed include asteroid taxonomy, the optical properties of dust from cometary and interplanetary grains, light scattering by rough surfaces on asteroidal/lunar regoliths, and the first results of particulate impacts and foil perforations on the Long Duration Exposure Facility. Also addressed are collision probability and spacecraft disposition in the geostationary orbit, a flash on the moon caused by orbital debris, the limits of population growth in low earth orbit due to collisional cascading, and the simulation of cosmic man-made dust effects on space-vehicle elements in rocket and laboratory experiments.

Kessler, D. J.↗