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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
NASA NTRS1978

Cost analysis of new and retrofit hot-air type solar assisted heating systems

A detailed cost analysis/cost improvement study was performed on two Department of Energy/National Aeronautics and Space Administration operational test sites to determine actual costs and potential cost improvements of new and retrofit hot air type, solar assisted heating and hot water systems for single family sized structures. This analysis concentrated on the first cost of a system which included procurement, installation, and integration of a solar assisted heating and hot water system on a new or retrofit basis; it also provided several cost projections which can be used as inputs to payback analyses, depending upon the degree of optimism or future improvements assumed. Cost definitions were developed for five categories of cost, and preliminary estimates were developed for each. The costing methodology, approach, and results together with several candidate low cost designs are described.

Stewart, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Spacelab development and its operational verification

This paper gives a brief status report on the current Spacelab program and describes how the results of ground and flight tests will be combined to provide the operational verification of the system. For the on-going project, data on design, testing and fabrication plans are presented. In particular, recent changes to meet the constraints of a 'build-to-cost' project are described. In the operational verification of Spacelab, ground and flight tests which ESA and NASA will perform are addressed. The installation of test instrumentation and the performance of integrated tests will be accomplished in the US. Experiments for the first flight will be integrated into Spacelab racks and pallets and simulated mission tests performed. On-orbit, system thermal surveys are planned and stress data will be obtained during launch and re-entry.

Bignier, M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Solar thermal technologies benefits assessment: Objectives, methodologies and results for 1981

The economic and social benefits of developing cost competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) were assessed. The analysis was restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high insolation/high energy price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs were considered, reflecting uncertainty over fuel prices and STT cost projections. After considering the numerous benefits of introducing STT into the energy market, three primary benefits were identified and evaluated: (1) direct energy cost savings were estimated to range from zero to $50 billion; (2) oil imports may be reduced by up to 9 percent, improving national security; and (3) significant environmental benefits can be realized in air basins where electric power plant emissions create substantial air pollution problems. STT research and development was found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. The normal risks associated with investments in research and development are accentuated because the OPEC cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut the growth of alternative energy sources.

Gates, W. R.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

High-speed machining of Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) panels

Potential production rates and project cost savings achieved by converting the conventional machining process in manufacturing shuttle external tank panels to high speed machining (HSM) techniques were studied. Savings were projected from the comparison of current production rates with HSM rates and with rates attainable on new conventional machines. The HSM estimates were also based on rates attainable by retrofitting existing conventional equipment with high speed spindle motors and rates attainable using new state of the art machines designed and built for HSM.

Miller, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Handbook

The purpose of this document is to provide program/project teams necessary instruction and guidance in the best practices for Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS dictionary development and use for project implementation and management control. This handbook can be used for all types of NASA projects and work activities including research, development, construction, test and evaluation, and operations. The products of these work efforts may be hardware, software, data, or service elements (alone or in combination). The aim of this document is to assist project teams in the development of effective work breakdown structures that provide a framework of common reference for all project elements. The WBS and WBS dictionary are effective management processes for planning, organizing, and administering NASA programs and projects. The guidance contained in this document is applicable to both in-house, NASA-led effort and contracted effort. It assists management teams from both entities in fulfilling necessary responsibilities for successful accomplishment of project cost, schedule, and technical goals. Benefits resulting from the use of an effective WBS include, but are not limited to: providing a basis for assigned project responsibilities, providing a basis for project schedule development, simplifying a project by dividing the total work scope into manageable units, and providing a common reference for all project communication.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Handbook

The purpose of this document is to provide program/project teams necessary instruction and guidance in the best practices for Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) and WBS dictionary development and use for project implementation and management control. This handbook can be used for all types of NASA projects and work activities including research, development, construction, test and evaluation, and operations. The products of these work efforts may be hardware, software, data, or service elements (alone or in combination). The aim of this document is to assist project teams in the development of effective work breakdown structures that provide a framework of common reference for all project elements. The WBS and WBS dictionary are effective management processes for planning, organizing, and administering NASA programs and projects. The guidance contained in this document is applicable to both in-house, NASA-led effort and contracted effort. It assists management teams from both entities in fulfilling necessary responsibilities for successful accomplishment of project cost, schedule, and technical goals. Benefits resulting from the use of an effective WBS include, but are not limited to: providing a basis for assigned project responsibilities, providing a basis for project schedule and budget development, simplifying a project by dividing the total work scope into manageable units, and providing a common reference for all project communication.

Planning↗
NASA NTRS2021

NASA Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Handbook

The purpose of this document is to provide program/project teams necessary instruction and guidance in the best practices for WBS and WBS dictionary development and use for project implementation and management control. This handbook can be used for all types of NASA projects and work activities including research, development, construction, test and evaluation, and operations. The products of these work efforts may be hardware, software, data, or service elements (alone or in combination). The aim of this document is to assist project teams in the development of effective work breakdown structures that provide a framework of common reference for all project elements. The WBS and WBS dictionary are effective management processes for planning, organizing, and administering NASA programs and projects. The guidance contained in this document is applicable to both in-house, NASA-led effort and contracted effort. It assists management teams from both entities in fulfilling necessary responsibilities for successful accomplishment of project cost, schedule, and technical goals. Benefits resulting from the use of an effective WBS include, but are not limited to: providing a basis for assigned project responsibilities, providing a basis for project schedule and budget development, simplifying a project by dividing the total work scope into manageable units, and providing a common reference for all project communication.

Christopher Lewis Sadler↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrated Design Tools Reduce Risk, Cost

Thanks in part to a SBIR award with Langley Research Center, Phoenix Integration Inc., based in Wayne, Pennsylvania, modified and advanced software for process integration and design automation. For NASA, the tool has resulted in lower project costs and reductions in design time; clients of Phoenix Integration are experiencing the same rewards.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Sampling of Tide Heights Study

The goal of the study was to determine if it was possible to reduce the cost of verifying computational models of tidal waves and currents. Statistical techniques were used to determine the least number of samples required, in a given situation, to remain statistically significant, and thereby reduce overall project costs. Commercial, academic, and Federal agencies could benefit by applying these techniques, without the need to 'touch' every item in the population. For example, the requirement of this project was to measure the heights and times of high and low tides at 8,000 locations for verification of computational models of tidal waves and currents. The application of the statistical techniques began with observations to determine the correctness of submitted measurement data, followed by some assumptions based on the observations. Among the assumptions were that the data were representative of data-collection techniques used at the measurement locations, that time measurements could be ignored (that is, height measurements alone would suffice), and that the height measurements were from a statistically normal distribution. Sample means and standard deviations were determined for all locations. Interval limits were determined for confidence levels of 95, 98, and 99 percent. It was found that the numbers of measurement locations needed to attain these confidence levels were 55, 78, and 96, respectively.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1984

Overview of waste heat utilization systems

The heavy truck diesel engine rejects a significant fraction of its fuel energy in the form of waste heat. Historically, the Department of Energy has supported technology efforts for utilization of the diesel exhaust heat. Specifically, the Turbocompound and the Organic Rankine Cycle System (ORCS) have demonstrated that meaningful improvements in highway fuel economy can be realized through waste heat utilization. For heat recovery from the high temperature exhaust of future adiabatic diesel engines, the DOE/NASA are investigating a variety of alternatives based on the Rankine, Brayton, and Stirling power cycles. Initial screening results indicate that systems of this type offer a fuel savings advantage over the turbocompound system. Capital and maintenance cost projections, however, indicate that the alternative power cycles are not competitive on an economic payback basis. Plans call for continued analysis in an attempt to identify a cost effective configuration with adequate fuel savings potential.

Bailey, M. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scaleup and Site-Specific Engineering Design for Global Thermostat Direct Air Capture Technology

The overall goal of the project is completion of an initial design of a commercial-scale, Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Direct Air Capture (CCUS-DAC) plant design at three different sites that captures a net of at least 100,000 tonnes per year (TPY) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere and considers compression and conditioning of the captured CO 2 for purpose of pipeline transportation to different geological formation sites for deep well injection and underground storage. In addition to the leading system consisting of a scaled-up Global Thermostat DAC unit, overall plant design includes a combined Heat and Power (CHP) unit integrated with a conventional liquid amine-based carbon capture system (90% capture) and compression facilities. These are considered balance of plant (BOP) systems and are required to provide low carbon-intensity steam and power to the DAC process. A second approach involving provision of DAC units modified to directly capture emissions from the CHP unit was initially assessed as an alternative and it was determined to be less mature than considered approach and not included in the scaled-up plant design efforts. Three geographically diverse continental United States locations were selected to better understand the effect of local/regional ambient conditions on scaled-up DAC system performance and project costs: Bucks, Alabama (hot wet climate), Odessa, Texas (dry hot climate), and Goose Creek, Illinois (mid continental climate). The team focused on initial engineering design activities, including the development of project design criteria, initiation of site-specific studies and investigations, completion of DAC system process and equipment design, and definition of balance of plant (BOP) engineering. The purpose of the activities were to develop Technoeconomic Analysis (TEA), Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA), and Environmental, Health, and Safety (EH&S) analysis, and Business Case Analysis (BCA) to validate that the project engineering and scale-up plans of the DAC systems, at each of the three distinct case studies considered, are technically, economically, and environmentally feasible for commercial-scale operation.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Field Evaluations Test Plan for Validation of Alternative Low-Emission Surface Preparation/Depainting Technologies for Structural Steel

Headquarters National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) chartered the Acquisition Pollution Prevention (AP2) Office to coordinate agency activities affecting pollution prevention issues identified during system and component acquisition and sustainment processes. The primary objectives of the AP2 Office are to: (1) Reduce or eliminate the use of hazardous materials (HazMats) or hazardous processes at manufacturing, remanufacturing, and sustainment locations. (2) Avoid duplication of effort in actions required to reduce or eliminate HazMats through joint center cooperation and technology sharing. To achieve a substrate condition suitable for the application of a coating system, both new and old (in-situ) substrates must undergo some type of surface preparation and/or depainting operation to ensure adhesion of the new coating system. The level of cleanliness or anchor profile desired is typically a function of the type of coating to be applied and the specification being adhered to. In high performance environments, cleanliness and surface profile requirements for carbon steel (the dominant substrate for facilities, structures and equipment) dictates the use of abrasive media. Many of the abrasive media currently used across NASA and Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) installations generate large quantities of fugitive particulate emissions and waste. The high quantities of airborne dust and waste generated from these operations pose significant environmental concern. Efforts to contain emissions and the reduce quantity of waste generated have significant implications on project cost; this is often a deterrent to engaging in maintenance activities. In response to recent technological developments and NASA's and AFSPC's need to undertake environmentally conscious corrosion prevention projects, a review of the industry needs to be undertaken to evaluate surface preparation technologies (materials and processes) for embrace. This project will identify, evaluate and approve alternative surface preparation technologies for use at NASA and AFSPC installations. Materials and processes will be evaluated with the goal of selecting those processes that will improve corrosion protection at critical systems, facilitate easier maintenance activity, extend maintenance cycles, eliminate flight hardware contamination and reduce the amount of hazardous waste generated. This Field Evaluations Test Plan defines the field evaluation and testing requirements for validating alternative surface preparation/depainting technologies and supplements the JTP. The field evaluations will be performed at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi, under the oversight of the Project Engineer. Additional field evaluations may be performed at other NASA centers or AFSPC facilities.

Lewis, Pattie↗
NASA NTRS2015

Lunar COTS: An Economical and Sustainable Approach to Reaching Mars

The NASA COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation Services) Program was a very successful program that developed and demonstrated cost-effective development and acquisition of commercial cargo transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS). The COTS acquisition strategy utilized a newer model than normally accepted in traditional procurement practices. This new model used Space Act Agreements where NASA entered into partnerships with industry to jointly share cost, development and operational risks to demonstrate new capabilities for mutual benefit. This model proved to be very beneficial to both NASA and its industry partners as NASA saved significantly in development and operational costs while industry partners successfully expanded their market share of the global launch transportation business. The authors, who contributed to the development of the COTS model, would like to extend this model to a lunar commercial services program that will push development of technologies and capabilities that will serve a Mars architecture and lead to an economical and sustainable pathway to transporting humans to Mars. Over the past few decades, several architectures for the Moon and Mars have been proposed and studied but ultimately halted or not even started due to the projected costs significantly exceeding NASA's budgets. Therefore a new strategy is needed that will fit within NASA's projected budgets and takes advantage of the US commercial industry along with its creative and entrepreneurial attributes. The authors propose a new COTS-like program to enter into partnerships with industry to demonstrate cost-effective, cis-lunar commercial services, such as lunar transportation, lunar ISRU operations, and cis-lunar propellant depots that can enable an economical and sustainable Mars architecture. Similar to the original COTS program, the goals of the proposed program, being notionally referred to as Lunar Commercial Orbital Transfer Services (LCOTS) program will be to: 1) reduce development and operational costs by sharing costs with industry; 2) create new markets in cis-lunar space to further reduce operational costs; and 3) enable NASA to develop an affordable and economical exploration Mars architecture. The paper will describe a plan for a proposed LCOTS program, its potential impact to an eventual Mars architecture and its many benefits to NASA, commercial space industry and the US economy.

Lunar ISRU↗
NASA NTRS1975

Cost effective dynamic design and test requirements for Shuttle payloads

The results of a study examining current spacecraft dynamic design and test requirements for the cost effective design and development of Shuttle payloads are presented. Dynamic environments, payload configurations, design/test requirements, test levels, assembly level of testing, simulation methods, prototype role, load limiting, test facilities, and flight measurements are discussed as they relate to the development of a cost effective design and test philosophy for Shuttle Spacelab payloads. It is concluded that changes to current design/test practices will minimize long range payload costs. However, changes to current practices need be quantitatively evaluated before an orderly progression to more cost effective methods can be achieved without undue risk of mission failures. Of major importance is optimization of test levels and plans for payloads and payload subsystems which will result in minimum project costs.

Stahle, C. V.↗