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At least 91 records · Page 5

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 2

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 3

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Summary Report on Material Characterization, Part 4

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control (MCPC) Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). The MCPC Project executed research across three scientific vertices—material characterization, predictive modeling, and data analytics—with extensive support by a data curation and management team. The central technical objective in the MCPC Project was to improve the prediction and characterization of the process-structure-property relationships within the microstructurally refined region of stainless-steel samples prepared utilizing friction stir processing (FSP). Application of the FSP technique is well established at PNNL within the Solid Phase Processing capability through many years of investment across a range of materials and applications (PNNL 2024).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project: Summary Report on Data Analytics Framework

This report summarizes the activities performed under the data analytics Vertex in the Materials Characterization, Prediction and Control Project funded under laboratory directed research and development at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The data analytics Vertex developed models for associating global or local process parameters, microstructural features, and performance properties of friction-stir-processed 316L stainless steel plates. Statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, as well as generative artificial intelligence approaches, were used to develop the associations between the process-structure-property data streams. These associations formed the basis for predicting global properties of parts manufactured under different process envelopes, providing a basis for predicting performance using data driven as well as physics-informed and physics-constrained approaches. Additionally, the associations were used to predict local process parameters and microstructural features of the product, predictive relationships that have the potential to form the basis of a control framework that could eventually modulate a friction-stir process to maintain product quality.

316L stainless steel↗

Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project: Characterization of 316L Stainless Steel after Solid Phase Processing using Ultrasonic NDE Method

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory undertook the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Laboratory Directed Research and Development Project to advance understanding of nuclear material processing and enable multifold acceleration in the development and qualification of new material systems produced via advanced manufacturing methods, such as solid phase processing, for use in national security and advanced energy applications (Smith 2021). A motivation of the Materials Characterization, Prediction, and Control Project was to demonstrate ultrasonic testing as a nondestructive evaluation method to complement traditional destructive methods for characterizing material microstructure with emphasis on grain size determination using a method that may have future applications for real-time inline process monitoring. The objective of the work described in this report is to establish the process and an analysis method for measuring grain sizes of polycrystalline metals with ultrafine grains using ultrasonic shear wave backscattering, building on prior studies on coarser-grained material. The work involves five tasks: Measured ultrasonic backscattering experimentally for a series of 316L stainless steel specimens with various grain sizes made by friction stir processing. Calculated ultrasonic backscattering coefficients from experimental data based on a physical measurement model. Measured ground truth grain sizes of the specimens from electron backscatter diffraction grain boundary images using a generalization of the ASTM E112 (ASTM 2021) intercept method. Built a curve of ultrasonic backscattering coefficients versus the ground truth intercept-based grain sizes to determine the correlation between mean grain sizes and ultrasonic measurements. Demonstrated the ability of using the correlation curve to deduce grain sizes with measured ultrasonic backscattering coefficients for a few 316L stainless steel specimens whose grain sizes were unknown beforehand but were targeted to be an extrapolation to larger grain sizes than used to formulate the correlation curves. Experimental procedures and computational algorithms are developed and validated for these tasks. This work establishes an ultrasonic technique for characterizing material microstructure with ultrafine grains that are often resulted by solid-phase processing. The technique is nondestructive, and it has the potential to be used for real time inline process monitoring. This work successfully demonstrates the viability of an ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation method for microstructural characterization of material having ultrafine grain structure (as small as 1?mm) and produced by an advanced manufacturing method. This includes a demonstration of the method to extrapolate to other conditions. While not demonstrated here, the method is expected to be viable for in-line, or near-inline, process monitoring in advanced manufacturing applications with suitable consideration for access of instrumentation to the material being manufactured.

316 L Stainless Steel↗

EVA Robotic Assistant Project: Platform Attitude Prediction

The Robotic Systems Technology Branch is currently working on the development of an EVA Robotic Assistant under the sponsorship of the Surface Systems Thrust of the NASA Cross Enterprise Technology Development Program (CETDP). This will be a mobile robot that can follow a field geologist during planetary surface exploration, carry his tools and the samples that he collects, and provide video coverage of his activity. Prior experiments have shown that for such a robot to be useful it must be able to follow the geologist at walking speed over any terrain of interest. Geologically interesting terrain tends to be rough rather than smooth. The commercial mobile robot that was recently purchased as an initial testbed for the EVA Robotic Assistant Project, an ATRV Jr., is capable of faster than walking speed outside but it has no suspension. Its wheels with inflated rubber tires are attached to axles that are connected directly to the robot body. Any angular motion of the robot produced by driving over rough terrain will directly affect the pointing of the on-board stereo cameras. The resulting image motion is expected to make tracking of the geologist more difficult. This will either require the tracker to search a larger part of the image to find the target from frame to frame or to search mechanically in pan and tilt whenever the image motion is large enough to put the target outside the image in the next frame. This project consists of the design and implementation of a Kalman filter that combines the output of the angular rate sensors and linear accelerometers on the robot to estimate the motion of the robot base. The motion of the stereo camera pair mounted on the robot that results from this motion as the robot drives over rough terrain is then straightforward to compute. The estimates may then be used, for example, to command the robot s on-board pan-tilt unit to compensate for the camera motion induced by the base movement. This has been accomplished in two ways: first, a standalone head stabilizer has been implemented and second, the estimates have been used to influence the search algorithm of the stereo tracking algorithm. Studies of the image motion of a tracked object indicate that the image motion of objects is suppressed while the robot crossing rough terrain. This work expands the range of speed and surface roughness over which the robot should be able to track and follow a field geologist and accept arm gesture commands from the geologist.

Nickels, Kevin M.↗

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The NASA Energy and Water Cycle Extreme (NEWSE) Integration Project

Skillful predictions of water and energy cycle extremes (flood and drought) are elusive. To better understand the mechanisms responsible for water and energy extremes, and to make decisive progress in predicting these extremes, the collaborative NASA Energy and Water cycle Extremes (NEWSE) Integration Project, is studying these extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (SGP) during 2006-2007, including their relationships with continental and global scale processes, and assessment of their predictability on multiple space and time scales. It is our hypothesis that an integrative analysis of observed extremes which reflects the current understanding of the role of SST and soil moisture variability influences on atmospheric heating and forcing of planetary waves, incorporating recently available global and regional hydro- meteorological datasets (i.e., precipitation, water vapor, clouds, etc.) in conjunction with advances in data assimilation, can lead to new insights into the factors that lead to persistent drought and flooding. We will show initial results of this project, whose goals are to provide an improved definition, attribution and prediction on sub-seasonal to interannual time scales, improved understanding of the mechanisms of decadal drought and its predictability, including the impacts of SST variability and deep soil moisture variability, and improved monitoring/attributions, with transition to applications; a bridging of the gap between hydrological forecasts and stakeholders (utilization of probabilistic forecasts, education, forecast interpretation for different sectors, assessment of uncertainties for different sectors, etc.).

House, P. R.↗

CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability

Monsoons affect the economy, agriculture, and human health of two thirds of the world’s population. Therefore, predicting variations in monsoon precipitation is societally important. We explore the ability of climate models from the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project to predict summer monsoon precipitation variability by using hindcasts from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (Component A). The multi-model ensemble-mean shows significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation from one year to 6–9 years ahead. However, this skill is dependent on the model, monsoon domain, and lead-time. In general, the skill of the multi-model ensemble-mean prediction is low in year 1 but increases for longer-lead times and is largely consistent with externally forced changes. The best captured region is northern Africa for the 2–5 and 6–9 year forecast lead times. In contrast, there is no significant skill using the ensemble-mean over East and South Asia and, furthermore, there is significant spread in skill among models for these domains. By sub-sampling the ensemble we show that the difference in skill between models is tied to the simulation of the externally forced response over East and South Asia, with models with a more skilful forced response capable of better predictions. A further contribution is from skilful prediction of Pacific Ocean temperatures for the South Asian summer monsoon at longer lead-times. Therefore, these results indicate that predictions of the East and South Asian monsoons could be significantly improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Method for Projecting Cloud Shadows Onto a Central Receiver Field to Predict Receiver Damage

This work demonstrates methods of mapping high-spatial-resolution direct normal irradiance (DNI) data from satellites, Total Sky Imagers (TSIs), and analogous data sources onto a heliostat field for characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of the incident flux on a central receiver tower during cloud transient events. The mapping methods are incorporated into an optical software module that interfaces with CoPylot–SolarPILOT’s python API– to provide computationally efficient optical simulation of the heliostat field and the solar power tower. Eventually, this optical model will be incorporated into optimization models whereby a plant operator can understand the effects of cloud transient events on overall power production and receiver lifetime due to creep-fatigue damage and therefore make better informed decisions about receiver shutdown events. By more accurately modelling the effects of cloud events on receiver flux maps, this work may determine the magnitude and frequency of thermal cycling on receiver tubes and panels using actual or realistic cloud shapes instead of averaged DNI values–which may undercount the total cycle number. This work may also prevent unnecessary plant shutdowns due to overly precautionary control strategies and characterize the relative impact of various cloud types on receiver life. We plan to eventually integrate this methodology into the System Advisor Model (SAM) to improve performance model accuracy during periods of cloudiness. In this paper, we demonstrate generating DNI maps and mapping them to a solar field in CoPylot using 10 m resolution data from publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite data over the Crescent Dunes plant.

Mullin, Matthew↗

Seasonal Atmospheric and Oceanic Predictions

Several projects associated with dynamical, statistical, single column, and ocean models are presented. The projects include: 1) Regional Climate Modeling; 2) Statistical Downscaling; 3) Evaluation of SCM and NSIPP AGCM Results at the ARM Program Sites; and 4) Ocean Forecasts.

Roads, John↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

The workshop "An International Global Drought Information System Workshop: Next Steps" was held on 10-13 December 2014 in Pasadena, California. The more than 60 participants from 15 countries spanned the drought research community and included select representatives from applications communities as well as providers of regional and global drought information products. The workshop was sponsored and supported by the US National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program, the World Climate Research Program (WCRP: GEWEX, CLIVAR), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) programs on Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) and Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP). NASA/JPL hosted the workshop with logistical support provided by the GEWEX program office. The goal of the workshop was to build on past Global Drought Information System (GDIS) progress toward developing an experimental global drought information system. Specific goals were threefold: (i) to review recent research results focused on understanding drought mechanisms and their predictability on a wide range of time scales and to identify gaps in understanding that could be addressed by coordinated research; (ii) to help ensure that WRCP research priorities mesh with efforts to build capacity to address drought at the regional level; and (iii) to produce an implementation plan for a short duration pilot project to demonstrate current GDIS capabilities. See http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gdis-wkshp-2014-objectives for more information.

GEO↗

Automated support for experience-based software management

To effectively manage a software development project, the software manager must have access to key information concerning a project's status. This information includes not only data relating to the project of interest, but also, the experience of past development efforts within the environment. This paper describes the concepts and functionality of a software management tool designed to provide this information. This tool, called the Software Management Environment (SME), enables the software manager to compare an ongoing development effort with previous efforts and with models of the 'typical' project within the environment, to predict future project status, to analyze a project's strengths and weaknesses, and to assess the project's quality. In order to provide these functions the tool utilizes a vast corporate memory that includes a data base of software metrics, a set of models and relationships that describe the software development environment, and a set of rules that capture other knowledge and experience of software managers within the environment. Integrating these major concepts into one software management tool, the SME is a model of the type of management tool needed for all software development organizations.

Valett, Jon D.↗

Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP).

Coastal flood damage is primarily the result of extreme sea levels. Climate change is expected to drive an increase in these extremes. While proper estimation of changes in storm surges is essential to estimate changes in extreme sea levels, there remains low confidence in future trends of surge contribution to extreme sea levels. Alerting local populations of imminent extreme sea levels is also critical to protecting coastal populations. Both predicting and projecting extreme sea levels require reliable numerical prediction systems. The SurgeMIP (surge model intercomparison) community has been established to tackle such challenges. Efforts to intercompare storm surge prediction systems and coordinate the community 's prediction and projection efforts are introduced. An overview of past and recent advances in storm surge science such as physical processes to consider and the recent development of global forecasting systems are briefly introduced. Selected historical events and drivers behind fast increasing service and knowledge requirements for emergency response to adaptation considerations are also discussed. The community 's initial plans and recent progress are introduced. These include the establishment of an intercomparison project, the identification of research and development gaps, and the introduction of efforts to coordinate projections that span multiple climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗