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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Polarized target nuclear magnetic resonance measurements with deep neural networks

Continuous-wave Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (CW-NMR) operated in constant-current mode has served as a foundational technique for polarization measurement in solid-state dynamically polarized targets within nuclear and high-energy physics experiments for several decades, and it remains an essential tool. Conventional Q-meter-based phase-sensitive detection is critical for precise real-time determination of target polarization during scattering runs. However, the accuracy and reliability of these measurements are frequently compromised by elevated noise levels, baseline drift, and systematic uncertainties arising from signal isolation and fitting, ultimately degrading the overall experimental figure of merit. In this work, we report the first successful application of neural network architectures to continuous-wave NMR polarization metrology. By leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for signal extraction and denoising, we achieve a substantial reduction of fitting uncertainties under a variety of realistic simulated and experimental conditions. These improvements translate directly into more robust real-time (online) polarization monitoring and higher precision in subsequent offline analysis. By reducing analysis-induced uncertainty, the resulting methodology can improve the effective figure of merit for scattering experiments employing dynamically polarized targets and provides a new toolset for NMR-based polarimetry in high-energy and nuclear physics.

Metrology↗
NASA NTRS2010

Ares I-X: First Step in a New Era of Exploration

Since 2005, NASA's Constellation Program has been designing, building, and testing the next generation of launch and space vehicles to carry humans beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO). On October 28, 2009, the Ares Projects successfully launched the first suborbital development flight test of the Ares I crew launch vehicle, Ares I-X, from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Although the final Constellation Program architecture is under review, data and lessons obtained from Ares I-X can be applied to any launch vehicle. This presentation will discuss the mission background and future impacts of the flight. Ares I is designed to carry up to four astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS). It also can be used with the Ares V cargo launch vehicle for a variety of missions beyond LEO. The Ares I-X development flight test was conceived in 2006 to acquire early engineering, operations, and environment data during liftoff, ascent, and first stage recovery. Engineers are using the test flight data to improve the Ares I design before its critical design review the final review before manufacturing of the flight vehicle begins. The Ares I-X flight test vehicle incorporated a mix of flight and mockup hardware, reflecting a similar length and mass to the operational vehicle. It was powered by a four-segment SRB from the Space Shuttle inventory, and was modified to include a fifth, spacer segment that made the booster approximately the same size as the five-segment SRB. The Ares I-X flight closely approximated flight conditions the Ares I will experience through Mach 4.5, performing a first stage separation at an altitude of 125,000 feet and reaching a maximum dynamic pressure ("Max Q") of approximately 850 pounds per square foot. The Ares I-X Mission Management Office (MMO) was organized functionally to address all the major test elements, including: first stage, avionics, and roll control (Marshall Space Flight Center); upper stage simulator (Glenn Research Center); crew module/launch abort system simulator (Langley Research Center); and ground systems and operations (KSC). Interfaces between vehicle elements and vehicle-ground elements, as well as environment analyses were performed by a systems engineering and integration team at Langley. Experience and lessons learned from these integrated product teams area are already being integrated into the Ares Projects to support the next generation of exploration launch vehicles.

Davis, Stephan R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scalability Analysis of Quantum Models for Stress and Emotion Detection

Stress and emotion detection from high-dimensional physiological signals is a challenging task, particularly when aiming for accurate classification across diverse behavioral states. Quantum machine learning (QML) is promising for modeling such high-dimensional data, but scalability is limited by qubit resources and the exponential cost of classical statevector simulation. This work studies the scalability of quantum support vector machines (QSVMs) for binary stress detection and three-class emotion recognition (Negative/Neutral/Positive) under varying qubit counts and angle-encoding strategies. We also present a comparison study with one-feature-per-qubit (1:1) and two-features-per-qubit (2:1) mappings. Experiments are executed on HPC infrastructure using NVIDIA CUDA-Q to evaluate performance, variance, and class-dependent separability at higher-qubit setups. Results show that larger Hilbert spaces can improve peak accuracy but may increase instability. At the same time, dense 2:1 encoding yields more consistent stress detection performance. For emotion recognition, scaling improves discrimination for classes like Negative and Positive more than Neutral. We find that effective QML scaling is task-dependent and benefits more from encoding design than simply increasing qubit count.

Onim, Md. Saif Hassan [University of Tennessee, Kn↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning Reconstruction of Daily Soil CO 2 Efflux Reveals Biogeochemical Insights and Reduces Annual Estimate Uncertainty Despite Limited Daily Predictability

Soil CO 2 efflux is commonly measured monthly or seasonally, leaving daily dynamics poorly resolved and contributing to global estimation uncertainty. We trained a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to predict daily soil CO 2 efflux across 82 globally distributed sites in COSORE, with 0.2%–46.9% daily data coverage from 2003 to 2020. Despite using far fewer sites than are typically used to train a single deep learning model, with observations biased toward temperate mesic sites, the LSTM model performed well at approximately one-third of sites, reconstructed nearly 2 decades of daily efflux, and outperformed commonly used approaches for estimating daily efflux when applied to the same data set. Performance was weakest at pronounced peaks and troughs and at non-temperate sites with <1.5 years of observations and irregular data patterns. Nevertheless, annual efflux from reconstructed daily data had <40% error even at underperforming sites, substantially improving estimates derived from monthly and seasonal sampling (maximum errors of 95% and 136%, respectively). Temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) estimated from reconstructed daily predictions closely matched estimates from daily observations, whereas Q 10 values derived from monthly or seasonal observations deviated substantially, suggesting that coarse temporal sampling may contribute to uncertainty in reported Q 10 values. Consistent daily reconstructions further enabled trend analyses for well-performing, predominantly temperate sites and showed increasing soil CO 2 efflux at most sites from 2003 to 2020, with more variable summer trends. Despite limitations, these results demonstrate the potential of LSTM models to reconstruct daily soil CO 2 efflux and reduce estimation uncertainties from sparse observations.

Smykalov, Valerie [Pennsylvania State University, ↗
NASA NTRS2005

Distributed Adaptive Control: Beyond Single-Instant, Discrete Variables

In extensive form noncooperative game theory, at each instant t, each agent i sets its state x, independently of the other agents, by sampling an associated distribution, q(sub i)(x(sub i)). The coupling between the agents arises in the joint evolution of those distributions. Distributed control problems can be cast the same way. In those problems the system designer sets aspects of the joint evolution of the distributions to try to optimize the goal for the overall system. Now information theory tells us what the separate q(sub i) of the agents are most likely to be if the system were to have a particular expected value of the objective function G(x(sub 1),x(sub 2), ...). So one can view the job of the system designer as speeding an iterative process. Each step of that process starts with a specified value of E(G), and the convergence of the q(sub i) to the most likely set of distributions consistent with that value. After this the target value for E(sub q)(G) is lowered, and then the process repeats. Previous work has elaborated many schemes for implementing this process when the underlying variables x(sub i) all have a finite number of possible values and G does not extend to multiple instants in time. That work also is based on a fixed mapping from agents to control devices, so that the the statistical independence of the agents' moves means independence of the device states. This paper also extends that work to relax all of these restrictions. This extends the applicability of that work to include continuous spaces and Reinforcement Learning. This paper also elaborates how some of that earlier work can be viewed as a first-principles justification of evolution-based search algorithms.

Wolpert, David H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multivariate environmental and trait-based controls of transpiration in the Central Amazon Rainforest

Tropical forest tree mortality is increasing due to more severe droughts, yet our understanding of how tree traits and life strategies are linked to drought stress has been limited by measurement scarcity. The BIONTE (BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) near Manaus, Brazil hosts one of the world’s largest sap flow installations, with sensors in 90 canopy trees across a wood density gradient monitored since June 2022. The 2023 El Niño drought provided a unique opportunity to evaluate how water availability impacts tree transpiration. An interpretable machine learning framework was used to study the complex interactions between transpiration and multiple environmental variables such as soil water availability and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and how these interactions vary with wood density and individual trees. We found varying responses of transpiration from different trees during the El Niño drought. Transpiration generally increased with temperature, with stronger effects in wetter areas and in trees with low to medium wood density. However, this response was modulated by stomatal sensitivity to VPD, which constrained transpiration under high atmospheric demand, particularly in intermediate-moisture area. The inflection in transpiration rate at high temperatures (>32°C) underscores the role of stomatal and hydraulic regulation in limiting water loss and protecting trees from excessive evaporative demand. Analysis of soil water contribution to transpiration revealed unimodal patterns in wetter area, with peak contributions near 0.45 cm 3 cm -3 of surface soil water and declining or flat responses beyond that threshold, suggesting a shift from water- to energy-limited transpiration. In contrast, drier areas exhibited limited transpiration sensitivity to soil water conditions and minimal trait-based variation in VPD responses, indicating supply-limited conditions. Despite higher wood density trees being generally more resilient, this study shows diverse tree drought resilience, prompting further investigation into the specific traits and dynamics between environmental variables in regulating transpiration and other physiological processes in trees.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

A tale of two extremes: Temperature sensitivity of carbon loss from cool and hot soils

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soils to the atmosphere is ~ 6-10 times more than anthropogenic emissions. Understanding responses of soil CO 2 emissions to warming is crucial for evaluating feedback to ongoing environmental changes. The relationship between microbial respiration and temperature is typically modeled using a Q 10 function. Generally, observations of the apparent Q 10 of soil respiration are higher for cold vs. warm ecosystems, reflecting expected biophysical controls of Arrhenius kinetics. However, results from two field warming experiments in the tropics contradict this expectation, both observing extraordinarily high soil respiration responses to in situ warming. Our overall objective for the proposed work is to reduce uncertainty in temperature sensitivity of soil C loss by systematically synthesizing underlying mechanisms related to soil C turnover and stabilization. We are evaluating the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in ecosystems across temperature extremes (e.g., arctic/boreal and tropical systems) by integrating data collected from field warming experiments with machine learning and biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

gRASPA

GPU Monte Carlo Simulation Code with a taste of RASPA We present enhancements in Monte Carlo simulation speed and functionality within an open-source code, gRASPA, which uses graphical processing units (GPUs) to achieve significant performance improvements compared to serial, CPU implementations of Monte Carlo. The code supports a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, including canonical ensemble (NVT), grand canonical, NVT Gibbs, Widom test particle insertions, and continuous-fractional component Monte Carlo. Implementation of grand canonical transition matrix Monte Carlo (GC-TMMC) and a novel feature to allow different moves for the different components of metal-organic framework (MOF) structures exemplify the capabilities of gRASPA for precise free energy calculations and enhanced adsorption studies, respectively. The introduction of a High-Throughput Computing (HTC) mode permits many Monte Carlo simulations on a single GPU device for accelerated materials discovery. The code can incorporate machine learning (ML) potentials. The open-source nature of gRASPA promotes reproducibility and openness in science, and users may add features to the code and optimize it for their own purposes. The code is written in CUDA/C++ and SYCL/C++ to support different GPU vendors. The gRASPA code is publicly available at https://github.com/snurr-group/gRASPA.

Li, Zhao [Purdue/Northwestern/Notre Dame Universit↗
NASA NTRS2018

Artificial Neural Networks for Determining Magnetospheric Conditions

This chapter presents a neural-network-based technique that allows for the reconstruction of the global, time-varying distribution of some physical quantity Q, that has been sparsely sampled at various locations within the magnetosphere, and at different times. We begin with a general introduction to the problem of prediction and specification, and why it is important and difficult to achieve with existing methods. We then provide a basic introduction to neural networks, and describe our technique using the specific example of reconstructing the electron plasma density in the Earth's inner magnetosphere on the equatorial plane. We then show more advanced uses of the technique, including 3D reconstruction of the plasma density, specification of chorus and hiss waves, and energetic particle fluxes. We summarize and conclude with a general discussion of how machine learning techniques might be used to advance the state-of-the-art in space weather prediction, and insight discovery.

Bortnik, Jacob↗
NASA NTRS2016

James Webb Space Telescope Integrated Science Instrument Module Thermal Vacuum Thermal Balance Test Campaign at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

The James Webb Space Telescope is a large infrared telescope with a 6.5-meter primary mirror, designed as a successor to the Hubble Space Telescope when launched in 2018. Three of the four science instruments contained within the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) are passively cooled to their operational temperature range of 36K to 40K with radiators, and the fourth instrument is actively cooled to its operational temperature of approximately 6K. Thermal-vacuum testing of the flight science instruments at the ISIM element level has taken place in three separate highly challenging and extremely complex thermal tests within a gaseous helium-cooled shroud inside Goddard Space Flight Centers Space Environment Simulator. Special data acquisition software was developed for these tests to monitor over 1700 flight and test sensor measurements, track over 50 gradients, component rates, and temperature limits in real time against defined constraints and limitations, and guide the complex transition from ambient to final cryogenic temperatures and back. This extremely flexible system has proven highly successful in safeguarding the nearly $2B science payload during the 3.5-month-long thermal tests. Heat flow measurement instrumentation, or Q-meters, were also specially developed for these tests. These devices provide thermal boundaries o the flight hardware while measuring instrument heat loads up to 600 mW with an estimated uncertainty of 2 mW in test, enabling accurate thermal model correlation, hardware design validation, and workmanship verification. The high accuracy heat load measurements provided first evidence of a potentially serious hardware design issue that was subsequently corrected. This paper provides an overview of the ISIM-level thermal-vacuum tests and thermal objectives; explains the thermal test configuration and thermal balances; describes special measurement instrumentation and monitoring and control software; presents key test thermal results; lists problems encountered during testing and lessons learned.

JWST ISIM Thermal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate numerical simulations of open quantum systems using spectral tensor trains

Decoherence between qubits is a major bottleneck in quantum computations. Decoherence results from intrinsic quantum and thermal fluctuations as well as noise in the external fields that perform the measurement and preparation processes. With prescribed colored noise spectra for intrinsic and extrinsic noise, we present a numerical method, Quantum Accelerated Stochastic Propagator Evaluation (Q-ASPEN), to solve the time-dependent noise-averaged reduced density matrix in the presence of intrinsic and extrinsic noise. Q-ASPEN is arbitrarily accurate and can be applied to provide estimates for the resources needed to error-correct quantum computations. We employ spectral tensor trains, which combine the advantages of tensor networks and pseudospectral methods, as a variational ansatz to the quantum relaxation problem and optimize the ansatz using methods typically used to train neural networks. Here, the spectral tensor trains in Q-ASPEN make accurate calculations with tens of quantum levels feasible. We present benchmarks for Q-ASPEN on the spin-boson model in the presence of intrinsic noise and on a quantum chain of up to 32 sites in the presence of extrinsic noise. In our benchmark, the memory cost of Q-ASPEN scales as a low-order polynomial in the size of the system once the number of system states surpasses the number of basis functions used in the spectral expansion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-Diffusivity Measurement of Eutectic F 7 LiNaK with and without Additives Using Quasi-Elastic Neutron Scattering

The atomic scale relaxation dynamics of eutectic F 7 LiNaK (46.5 LiF–11.5 NaF–42 KF mol %, Li-7 enriched) were measured using quasi-elastic neutron scattering (QENS) over a temperature range of 500–750 °C. Here, the effect of adding 0.988 mol % cerium, 0.499 mol % cesium, and 1.21 mol % zirconium individually to the dynamics of F 7 LiNaK was also investigated. The relaxation process in both pure and doped F 7 LiNaK molten salts was fit with a stretched exponential function and the temperature dependence follows an Arrhenius behavior over a wavevector transfer range of 0.4 Å –1 < Q < 0.9 Å –1 . The measured activation energy for self-diffusion is E a = 0.77 ± 0.02 eV/atom for pure molten F 7 LiNaK. The QENS response with additives added to F 7 LiNaK was also fit with a stretched exponential and the associated Arrhenius behavior was characterized with activation energies of E a = 0.88 ± 0.01 eV/atom for zirconium (1.21 mol %), E a = 1.02 ± 0.02 eV/atom for cerium (0.988 mol %), and E a = 0.71 ± 0.03 eV/atom for cesium (0.499 mol %). The measured diffusivities are compared to those simulated with a neural network force field model by Lee et al. [Lee, S.-C. Comparative Studies of the Structural and Transport Properties of Molten Salt FLiNaK Using the Machine-Learned Neural Network and Reparametrized Classical Forcefields. J. Phys. Chem. B 2021, 125(37), 10562–10570].

FLiNaK↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fragme∩t: An Open‐Source Framework for Multiscale Quantum Chemistry Based on Fragmentation

Fragment-based quantum chemistry offers a means to circumvent the nonlinear computational scaling of conventional electronic structure calculations, by partitioning a large calculation into smaller subsystems then considering the many-body interactions between them. Variants of this approach have been used to parameterize classical force fields and machine learning potentials, applications that benefit from interoperability between quantum chemistry codes. However, there is a dearth of software that provides interoperability yet is purpose-built to handle the combinatorial complexity of fragment-based calculations. To fill this void we introduce “Fragme∩t”, an open-source software application that provides a tool for community validation of fragment-based methods, a platform for developing new approximations, and a framework for analyzing many-body interactions. Fragme∩t includes algorithms for automatic fragment generation and structure modification, and for distance- and energy-based screening of the requisite subsystems. Checkpointing, database management, and parallelization are handled internally and results are archived in a portable database. Interfaces to various quantum chemistry engines are easy to write and exist already for Q-Chem, PySCF, xTB, Orca, CP2K, MRCC, Psi4, NWChem, GAMESS, and MOPAC. Applications reported here demonstrate parallel efficiencies around 96% on more than 1000 processors but also showcase that the code can handle large-scale protein fragmentation using only workstation hardware, all with a codebase that is designed to be usable by non-experts. Fragme∩t conforms to modern software engineering best practices and is built upon well established technologies including Python, SQLite, and Ray. The source code is available under the Apache 2.0 license.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biosynthesis of bioprivileged, linear molecules via novel carboligase reactions

Over the award period, we made progress on the three aims. We screened twenty-five carboligases for activity coupling twenty-one possible -keto acids (Aim 1). The carboligases were selected across a diverse set of protein sequences. Using Q-Exactive UHPLC-MS, we tested a total of 210 coupled products per enzyme and generated a dataset of 5250 enzyme-substrate activity relationships. We identified multiple enzymes that had activity for synthesizing suberic acid and heptanoic acid (Aim 2). We built a random forest model for predicting the activity of each enzyme toward substrates on which it was not tested using the data from Aim 1. Finally, we evaluated growth defects that occurred due to expression of different carboligases in E. coli (Aim 3). We were able to identify specific metabolites and putative pathways that, when supplemented in the media, recovered the growth defect associated with the presence of specific carboligases. We are in the process of publishing two manuscript describing the methods for high-throughput screening of enzyme promiscuity, using machine learning to predict activity on untested substrates, and enzyme activity data we collected. This project has produced enabling data for biosynthesis of a range of new-to-nature compounds to support biomanufacturing.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Dark Energy Survey: Cosmology Results with ∼1500 New High-redshift Type Ia Supernovae Using the Full 5 yr Data Set

Abstract We present cosmological constraints from the sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) discovered and measured during the full 5 yr of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) SN program. In contrast to most previous cosmological samples, in which SNe are classified based on their spectra, we classify the DES SNe using a machine learning algorithm applied to their light curves in four photometric bands. Spectroscopic redshifts are acquired from a dedicated follow-up survey of the host galaxies. After accounting for the likelihood of each SN being an SN Ia, we find 1635 DES SNe in the redshift range 0.10 < z < 1.13 that pass quality selection criteria sufficient to constrain cosmological parameters. This quintuples the number of high-quality z > 0.5 SNe compared to the previous leading compilation of Pantheon+ and results in the tightest cosmological constraints achieved by any SN data set to date. To derive cosmological constraints, we combine the DES SN data with a high-quality external low-redshift sample consisting of 194 SNe Ia spanning 0.025 < z < 0.10. Using SN data alone and including systematic uncertainties, we find Ω M = 0.352 ± 0.017 in flat ΛCDM. SN data alone now require acceleration ( q 0 < 0 in ΛCDM) with over 5 σ confidence. We find ( Ω M , w ) = ( 0.264 − 0.096 + 0.074 , − 0.80 − 0.16 + 0.14 ) in flat w CDM. For flat w 0 w a CDM, we find ( Ω M , w 0 , w a ) = ( 0.495 − 0.043 + 0.033 , − 0.36 − 0.30 + 0.36 , − 8.8 − 4.5 + 3.7 ) , consistent with a constant equation of state to within ∼2 σ . Including Planck cosmic microwave background, Sloan Digital Sky Survey baryon acoustic oscillation, and DES 3 × 2pt data gives (Ω M , w ) = (0.321 ± 0.007, −0.941 ± 0.026). In all cases, dark energy is consistent with a cosmological constant to within ∼2 σ . Systematic errors on cosmological parameters are subdominant compared to statistical errors; these results thus pave the way for future photometrically classified SN analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Error field detection and correction studies towards ITER operation

In magnetic fusion devices, error field (EF) sources, spurious magnetic field perturbations, need to be identified and corrected for safe and stable (disruption-free) tokamak operation. Within Work Package Tokamak Exploitation RT04, a series of studies have been carried out to test the portability of the novel non-disruptive method, designed and tested in DIII-D (Paz-Soldan et al 2022 Nucl. Fusion62 126007), and to perform an assessment of model-based EF control strategies towards their applicability in ITER. In this paper, the lessons learned, the physical mechanism behind the magnetic island healing, which relies on enhanced viscous torque that acts against the static electro-magnetic torque, and the main control achievements are reported, together with the first design of the asynchronous EF correction current/density controller for ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

Hou, Arthur↗
DOE OSTI2026

Explainable machine learning for incipient anomaly detection in compact molten salt heat exchanger with overlapping feature distributions

High-temperature molten salt-cooled reactors (MSCRs) are a promising next-generation nuclear technology option, offering efficient power conversion and inherent safety features. However, the reliability of these systems depends on the robust operation of heat exchangers (HXs), which are susceptible to failure due to temperature gradients and channel plugging caused by fluid freezing. Conventional monitoring methods, relying on inlet and outlet measurements, lack the spatial resolution needed to detect early-stage faults. We propose a novel design of a compact salt-to-salt matrix-type HX design consisting of interleaved arrays of parallel tubes, with integrated synthetic fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) to enable localized detection of incipient faults. To evaluate performance of this design, we generate high-fidelity synthetic data using heat transfer computational modeling to simulate channel plugging, and introduce sensor noise for realistic modeling of measurements. The dataset comprises of 97% normal operation and 3% anomaly cases, with each anomaly class representing 1% of the data. These early anomalies result in overlapping temperature profiles between normal and faulty channels, producing a non-separable dataset that challenges traditional classification techniques. We benchmark eight supervised machine learning (ML) models and demonstrate that XGBoost achieves the highest performance. To improve transparency, we develop an explainability framework combining Shapley values and partially ordered sets (POSETs) to quantify and structurally analyze feature importance. This approach identifies both dominant predictors and ambiguous feature relationships, enhancing trust and interpretability. Our results highlight the potential of combining DTS and explainable ML with intelligent feature selection to improve predictive maintenance and ensure operational resilience in advanced nuclear systems.

Prantikos, Konstantinos [Argonne National Laborato↗