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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

NR-QBO↗
NASA NTRS2005

Extratropical signature of the quasi-biennial oscillation

Using the assimilated data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, we show that the extratropical signature of the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is seen mostly in the North Annular Mode (NAM) of atmospheric variability. To understand the extratropical manifestation of the QBO, we discuss two effects that have been suggested earlier: (1) The extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO modulation of the planetary wave flux, and (2) the extratropical circulation is driven by the QBO-induced meridional circulation. We found that the first effect is seen in wave 1 in the beginning of winter and in wave 2 in the end of winter. The QBO-induced circulation affects midlatitude regions over the entire winter. To investigate the QBONAM coupling, we use an equation that relates the stream function of the meridional circulation and the polar cap averaged temperature, which is a proxy for the NAM index. In addition to the annual (omega)a and the QBO frequency (omega)Q the spectrum of its solutions indicates the satellite frequencies at (omega)a +/- (o.

tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Experimental protocol for phase 1 of the APARC QUOCA (QUasibiennial oscillation and Ozone Chemistry interactions in the Atmosphere) working group

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the main mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere, influencing the predictability of other regions in the atmosphere through its teleconnections to the stratospheric polar vortices and coupling to surface tropical and extratropical variability. However, climate and forecasting models consistently underestimate QBO amplitudes in the lower stratosphere, likely contributing to their failure to simulate these teleconnections. One underexplored contributor to model biases is missing representation of ozone-radiative feedbacks, which enhance temperature variability in the lower stratosphere, particularly at periods at and greater than the QBO (>28 months). While previous studies suggest that ozone-radiative feedbacks can impact QBO periods, amplitudes and the associated secondary circulation in the lower stratosphere, the reported impacts differ widely among models and are hard to interpret due to differences in methodology. To this end, here we propose a coordinated experimental protocol – held joint between the Atmospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (APARC) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Initiative (QBOi) and Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI) activities – which is aimed at assessing the coupling between stratospheric ozone, temperature and the circulation. We use the proposed experiments to define the ozone feedback on the QBO in both present-day and idealized (abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide) climates. While primary focus is on the QBO, the proposed protocol also enables analysis of other aspects of ozone-radiative-dynamical coupling in the atmosphere, including impacts on the Brewer-Dobson Circulation and tropospheric eddy-driven jet responses to future climate change. Here we document the scientific rationale and design of the QUOCA Phase 1 experiments, summarize the data request, and give a brief overview of participating models. Preliminary results using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies E2-2 climate model are used to illustrate sensitivities to certain methodological choices.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS1991

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II measurements of the quasi-biennial oscillations in ozone and nitrogen dioxide

The first measurements ever to show a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in NO2 have been made by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II) (SAGE II) and are presented in this work along with observations of the well-known QBO in stratospheric ozone. The SAGE II instrument was launched aboard the Earth Radiation Budget satellite near the end of 1984. Measurements of ozone and nitrogen dioxide through early 1990 are analyzed for the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation. The measurements show the global extent of both the O3 and NO2 QBO in the 25- to 40-km region of the stratosphere. The SAGE II QBO results for ozone compare favorably to theory and previous measurements. The QBO in NO2 is found to be consistent with the vertical and horizontal transport of NOy. Both species exhibit a QBO at extratropical latitudes consistent with strong meridional transport into the winter hemisphere.

Zawodny, Joseph M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Quasi-biennial oscillation and tropical waves in total ozone

Westward and eastward propagating tropical waves in total ozone are investigated in 13 years (1979-1991) of version 6 total column ozone data from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument. A clear synchronization between the stratospheric quasi-biennial osciallation (QBO) zonal winds and the fast (periods less than 15 days) propagating waves in tropical TOMS data is detailed. Largest total ozone wave amplitudes (about 3-6 Dobson units) occur when their phase propagation direction is primarily opposite the Singapore QBO lower-stratospheric winds. This effect is most apparent in meridionally symmetric components. Examination of specific episodes, including cross-spectral calculations with Singapore rawinsonde wind data (10-70 hPa), reveals signatures of tropically confined eastward propagating Kelvin waves of zonal wavenumbers 1-2 during the descending eastward QBO phase, consistent with acceleration of that QBO phase by Kelvin waves. The TOMS results are also consistent with possible forcing of the westward QBO wind phase by episodes of both meridionally symmetric and asymmetric westward waves. However, in contrast to the case of eastward (Kelvin) waves the strongest westward events appear to be filtered by, rather than forcing, the westward phase of the stratospheric QBO wind. These dominant westward episodes are interpreted as meridionally symmetric westward global normal modes and tropically confined equatorial-Rossby waves 2-6. The events exhibit phase and group speeds characteristic of wave dynamics rather than simple wind advection. These results underscore the utility of the long time series and excellent horizontal coverage of TOMS data for dynamical investigations in the relatively observation-poor tropical stratosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Interseasonal Variations in the Middle Atmosphere Forced by Gravity Waves

In our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization, gravity waves (GW) propagating in the east/west direction can generate the essential features of the observed equatorial oscillations in the zonal circulation and in particular the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. We report here that the NSM also produces inter-seasonal variations in the zonally symmetric (m = 0) meridional circulation. A distinct but variable meridional wind oscillation (MWO) is generated, which appears to be the counterpart to the QBO. With a vertical grid-point resolution of about 0.5 km, the NSM produces the MWO through momentum deposition of GWs propagating in the north/south direction. The resulting momentum source represents a third (generally odd) order non-linear function of the meridional winds, and this enables the oscillation, as in the case of the QBO for the zonal winds. Since the meridional winds are relatively small compared to the zonal winds, however, the vertical wavelength that maintains the MWO is much smaller, i.e., only about 10 km instead of 40 km for the QBO. Consistent with the associated increase of the viscous stress, the period of the MWO is then short compared with that of the QBO, i.e., only about two to four months. Depending on the strength of the GW forcing, the computed amplitudes of the MWO are typically 4 m/s in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and the associated temperature amplitudes are between about 2 and 3 K. These amplitudes may be observable with the instruments on the TIMED spacecraft. Extended computer simulations with the NSM in 2D (two-dimensional) and 3D (three-dimensional) reveal that the MWO is modulated by and in turn influences the QBO.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Seasonal Variation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Descent

This study examines variations through the year in the rate of descent of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) wind in the tropical lower stratosphere. The work is based on the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) multi-year global reanalysis. A 10-member ensemble of free-running atmospheric simulations using the Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric general circulation model is also examined. The QBO winds are decomposed into two orthogonal modes that describe amplitude and phase propagation. This reveals a semi-annual signal in descent rate, with slow descent at times of large middle-latitude planetary wave activity, suggesting that this wave activity influences equatorial vertical velocity. This result also explains the suppression of QBO wind transitions during active wave times. Results also show a variation in descent speed when plotted against QBO phase. These results provide a baseline of QBO behavior for future QBO modeling.

Quasi-biennial oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

Long-term projections of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high-top \Middle Atmosphere" (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2-AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere{ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone-dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre-industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simpli fied stratospheric ozone schemes.

GISS Model E2.2-AP↗
NASA NTRS2021

Response of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation to historical volcanic eruptions

The impact of volcanic eruptions on surface climate is well-appreciated, but their in situ impact on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) has received comparatively little attention. This study examines the QBO responses to Krakatoa and Pinatubo using five configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.2 and MERRA-2 reanalysis. A dynamically consistent response is found in terms of static stability, zonal wind, and upwelling. Eruptions are found to bias the QBO towards a westerly state, such that the QBO period response depends upon the phase at the time of eruption. The QBO does not have a clear amplitude response to an eruption, based on these simulations. The underlying mechanisms appear not to be influenced to fi rst-order by interactive composition, sea surface temperatures, or long-term trends in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances.

volcanic eruptions↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Quasi-biennial modulation of the Antarctic ozone depletion

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in total ozone and temperature has been extracted from 9 years of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) observations and National Meteorological Center (NMC) analyses. Years in which QBO-related variations in the total ozone and temperature are positive are found to correspond to years with smaller September Antarctic total ozone hole decline rates and vice versa. The QBO appears to be responsible for September decline rate deviations up to 0.4 Dobson units (DU) per day. Also, the QBO at mid-latitudes appears to be better correlated with the 30-mbar tropical QBO winds than with those at 50 mbar. Possible mechanisms that would explain these phenomena are discussed.

Lait, Leslie R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Annual variation of deseasonalized mean flow acceleration in the equatorial lower stratosphere

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial lower stratosphere appears to be influenced by the seasonal cycle, as phase transitions at 50 mb occur primarily in the northern spring/summer season (April-August). Descent of east wind regimes varies widely from one QBO cycle to another. Most of this variation occurs because easterly shears slow down or 'stall' in their descent sometime between July and February. Minimum mean flow accelerations at 50 mb occur in the northern winter season, slightly before the annual minimum in equatorial tropopause temperature. Although a weak effect of the semiannual oscillation can be detected near 10 mb, the seasonal effect over most of the QBO region is annual. The seasonal cycle apparently modulates the onset of QBO phases, and slightly enhances the ability to predict the QBO, but is of insufficient strength or consistency to exactly synchronize the quasi-biennial oscillation with the seasonal cycle.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modeling the quasi-biennial oscillation's effect on the winter stratospheric circulation

The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the winter middle atmosphere is modeled with a mechanistic global primitive equation model. The model's polar vortex evolution is sensitive to the lower stratosphere's tropical winds, with the polar vortex becoming more (less) disturbed as the lower stratospheric winds are more easterly (westerly). This agrees with the observed relationship between wintertime polar circulation strength and the phase of the QBO in the lower stratosphere. In these experiments it is the extratropical planetary Rossby waves that provide the tropical-extratropical coupling mechanism. More easterly tropical winds in the lower stratosphere act to confine the extratropical Rossby waves farther north and closer to the vortex at the QBO altitudes, weakening the vortex relative to the case of westerly QBO phase. While the QBO winds occur in the lower stratosphere, the anomaly in the polar vortex strength is strongest at higher levels.

O'Sullivan, Donal↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Role of Gravity Waves in Generating Equatorial Oscillations in Modulating Atmospheric Tides

We discuss a Numerical Spectral Mode (NSM) that extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and incorporates Hines' Doppler spread parameterization (DSP) for small scale gravity waves (GW). This model is applied to describe the seasonal variations in the mean zonal circulation, the semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillations (SAO and QBO), as well as the tides and planetary waves in the middle atmosphere. Initial results showed that this model can reproduce the salient features observed, including the QBO extending into the upper mesosphere inferred from UARS measurements. The model has now been extended to simulate also: (a) the zonal circulation of the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere, and (b) the upwelling at equatorial latitudes associated with the Brewer Dobsen circulation that affects the dynamics significantly as pointed out by Dunkerton. Upward vertical winds increase the period of the QBO observed from the ground. To compensate for that, one needs to increase in the model the eddy diffusivity and the GW momentum flux, bringing the latter closer to values recommended in the DSP. This development is conducive to extending the QBO and SAO to higher latitudes through global scale momentum redistribution. Multi-year interannual oscillations are generated through wave filtering by the solar driven annual oscillation in the zonal circulation. In a 3D version of the model, wave momentum is absorbed and dissipated by tides and planetary waves. A somewhat larger GW source (well within the DSP range) is then required to generate realistic QBO and SAO amplitudes. Since GW momentum is deposited in the altitude regime of increasing winds, the amplitude of the diurnal tide is amplified and its vertical wavelength is reduced at altitudes between 70 and 120 km. Wave filtering by the mean zonal circulation causes the GW flux to peak during equinox, and this produces a large semi-annual variation in the tide that has been observed on UARS. Without the diurnal tide, the semidiurnal tide would also be modulated in this way. But the diurnal tide filters out the GW preferentially during equinox, so that the semidiurnal tide tends to peak during solstice. Under the influence of GW, the tides are modulated significantly by planetary waves that are generated preferentially during solstice in part due to baroclinic instability.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Tides, Planetary Waves, and Equatorial Oscillations in the MLT

Applying Hines Doppler Spread Parameterization for gravity waves (GW), our 3D model reproduces some essential features that characterize the observed seasonal variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. In 2D, our model also reproduces the large Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) observed in this region at low latitudes. It is more challenging to describe these features combined in a more comprehensive self consistent model, and we give a progress report that outlines the difficulties and reports some success. In 3D, the GW's are partially absorbed by tides and planetary waves to amplify them. Thus the waves are less efficient in generating the QBO and SAO at equatorial latitudes. Some of this deficiency is compensated by the fact that the GW activity is observed to be enhanced at low latitudes. Increasing the GW source has the desired effect to boost the QBO, but the effect is confined primarily to the stratosphere. With increasing altitude, the meridional circulation becomes more important in redistributing the momentum deposited in the background flow by the GW's. Another factor involved is the altitude at which the GW's originate, which we had originally chosen to be the surface. Numerical experiments show that moving this source altitude to the top of the troposphere significantly increases the efficiency for generating the QBO without affecting much the tides and planetary waves in the model. Attention to the details in which the GW source comes into play thus appears to be of critical importance in modeling the phenomenology of the MLT. Among the suite of numerical experiments reported, we present a simulation that produced significant variations of tides and planetary waves in the upper mesosphere. The effect is related to the QBO generated in the model, and GW filtering is the likely cause.

Mengel, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Interseasonal Variations in the Middle Atmosphere Forced by Gravity Waves

In our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization, gravity waves (GW) propagating in the east/west direction can generate the essential features of the observed equatorial oscillations of the zonal circulation and in particular the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. We report here that the NSM also produces inter-seasonal variations in the zonally symmetric meridional circulation. A distinct meridional oscillation (MO) is generated, which appears to be the counterpart to the QBO. With a vertical grid-point resolution of about 0.5 km, the NSM produces the MO through momentum deposition of GW's propagating in the north/south direction. This process is inherently non-linear, of third (odd) order, which enables the oscillation. Since the meridional winds are relatively small compared to the zonal winds, the vertical wavelength required to maintain the MO is also smaller, i.e., only about 10 km instead of the 30 km for the QBO. The corresponding viscous stress is then larger, and the period of the MO is thus short compared with that of the QBO, i.e., only about 3 to 4 months. Depending on the strength of the GW forcing, the computed amplitudes of the meridional wind oscillation are typically 5 m/s in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and the associated temperature amplitudes are between about 2 and 3 K. These amplitudes may be observable with the instruments on the TIMED spacecraft. Extended computer simulations with the NSM in 2D and 3D reveal that the MO at low latitudes is modulated by the QBO and in turn can influence it to produce a hemispherically asymmetric component. The annual circulation from the summer to the winter hemisphere is likely to play an important role.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Influence of Tropospheric Processes in Modeling the Middle Atmosphere with Gravity Waves

Our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM) extends from the ground up into the thermosphere and has a vertical grid point resolution of about 0.5 km to resolve the interactions of gravity waves (GWs) described with Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization (DSP). This model produces in the stratosphere and mesosphere the major features of QBO, SAO, tides, and planetary waves. The purpose of this paper is to discuss results from an initial study with our 3D model that shows how certain tropospheric processes can affect the dynamics of the middle atmosphere. Under the influence of tropospheric heating, and augmented by GW interactions, two distinct but related processes can be identified. (1) A meridional circulation develops in the stratosphere, with rising motions at low latitudes that are in magnitude comparable to the downward propagation of the QBO. As Dunkerton pointed out, a larger GW source is then required to reproduce the observed QBO, which tends to move us closer to the values recommended for the DSP. This has significant consequences for our model results that describe the upper mesosphere, considering the general importance of GWs for this region and in influencing planetary waves (e.g., 2-day wave) and tides in particular. (2) Tropospheric heating produces zonal jets near the tropopause that are related to latitudinal variations in pressure and reversing temperature variations (resembling the dynamical conditions near the mesopause), which in turn is conducive to generate baroclinic instability. Modeling results show that our ability to generate the QBO critically depends on the magnitude of the temperature reversal that is a measure of this instability. Planetary waves are generated in this process, which can apparently interfere with or augment the GW interactions. As originally demonstrated by Lindzen and Holton, the eastward propagating Kelvin waves and westward propagating Rossby gravity waves (generated by tropospheric convection) can in principle provide the acceleration to influence the QBO, and we were able to confirm this with our 3D model.

Mayr, H. G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Can the GEOS CCM Simulate the Temperature Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events in the Antarctic Stratosphere?

"Warm pool" (WP) El Nino events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. During austral spring. WP El Nino events are associated with an enhancement of convective activity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, provoking a tropospheric planetary wave response and thus increasing planetary wave driving of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. These conditions lead to higher polar stratospheric temperatures and to a weaker polar jet during austral summer, as compared with neutral ENSO years. Furthermore, this response is sensitive to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): a stronger warming is seen in WP El Nino events coincident with the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) as compared with WP El Nino events coincident with a westerly or neutral QBO. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is used to further explore the atmospheric response to ENSO. Time-slice simulations are forced by composited SSTs from observed WP El Nino and neutral ENSO events. The modeled eddy heat flux, temperature and wind responses to WP El Nino events are compared with observations. A new gravity wave drag scheme has been implemented in the GEOS CCM, enabling the model to produce a realistic, internally generated QBO. By repeating the above time-slice simulations with this new model version, the sensitivity of the WP El Nino response to the phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation QBO is estimated.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗