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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and implementation of I/O performance prediction scheme on HPC systems through large-scale log analysis

Abstract Large-scale high performance computing (HPC) systems typically consist of many thousands of CPUs and storage units used by hundreds to thousands of users simultaneously. Applications from large numbers of users have diverse characteristics, such as varying computation, communication, memory, and I/O intensity. A good understanding of the performance characteristics of each user application is important for job scheduling and resource provisioning. Among these performance characteristics, I/O performance is becoming increasingly important as data sizes rapidly increase and large-scale applications, such as simulation and model training, are widely adopted. However, predicting I/O performance is difficult because I/O systems are shared among all users and involve many layers of software and hardware stack, including the application, network interconnect, operating system, file system, and storage devices. Furthermore, updates to these layers and changes in system management policy can significantly alter the I/O behavior of applications and the entire system. To improve the prediction of the I/O performance on HPC systems, we propose integrating information from several different system logs and developing a regression-based approach to predict the I/O performance. Our proposed scheme can dynamically select the most relevant features from the log entries using various feature selection algorithms and scoring functions, and can automatically select the regression algorithm with the best accuracy for the prediction task. The evaluation results show that our proposed scheme can predict the write performance with up to 90% prediction accuracy and the read performance with up to 99% prediction accuracy using the real logs from the Cori supercomputer system at NERSC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Advancing Glaciological Applications of Remote Sensing with EO-1: (1) Mapping Snow Grain Size and Albedo on the Greenland Ice Sheet Using an Imaging Spectrometer, and (2) ALI Evaluation for Subtle Surface Topographic Mapping via Shape-from Shading

The Hyperion sensor, onboard NASA's Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite,is an imaging spectroradiometer with 220 spectral bands over the spectral range from 0.4 - 2.5 microns. Over the course of summer 2001, the instrument acquired numerous images over the Greenland ice sheet. Our main motivation is to develop an accurate and robust approach for measuring the broadband albedo of snow from satellites. Satellite-derived estimates of broadband have typically been plagued with three problems: errors resulting from inaccurate atmospheric correction, particularly in the visible wavelengths from the conversion of reflectance to albedo (accounting for snow BRDE); and errors resulting from regression-based approaches used to convert narrowband albedo to broadband albedo. A typerspectral method has been developed that substantially reduces these three main sources of error and produces highly accurate estimates of snow albedo. This technique uses hyperspectral data from 0.98 - 1.06 microns, spanning a spectral absorption feature centered at 1.03 microns. A key aspect of this work is that this spectral range is within an atmospheric transmission window and reflectances are largely unaffected by atmospheric aerosols, water vapor, or ozone. In this investigation, we make broadband albedo measurements at four sites on the Greenland ice sheet: Summit, a high altitude station in central Greenland; the ETH/CU camp, a camp on the equilibrium line in western Greenland; Crawford Point, a site located between Summit and the ETH/CU camp; and Tunu, a site located in northeastern Greenland at 2000 m. altitude. Each of these sites has an automated weather station (AWS) that continually measures broadband albedo thereby providing validation data.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling of the metal–insulator transition temperature in alio-valently doped VO 2 through symbolic regression

The correlated semiconductor vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ) exhibits an insulator–metal transition (IMT) near room temperature, which is of interest in various device applications. Precise IMT temperature control is crucial to determine the use cases across technologies such as thermochromic windows, actuators for robots or neuronal oscillators. Doping the cation or anion sites can modulate the IMT by several tens of degrees and control hysteresis. However, modeling the effects of control parameters (e.g., doping concentration, type of dopants) is challenging due to complex experimental procedures and limited data, hindering the use of traditional data-driven machine learning approaches. Symbolic regression (SR) can bridge this gap by identifying nonlinear expressions connecting key input parameters to target properties, even with small data sets. In this work, we develop SR models to capture the IMT trends in VO 2 influenced by different dopant parameters. Using experimental data from the literature, our study reveals a dual nature of the IMT temperature with varying tungsten (W) doping concentrations. The symbolic model captures data trends and accounts for experimental variability, providing a complementary approach to first-principles calculations. Our feature-driven analysis across a broader class of dopants informs selectivity and provides qualitative insights into tuning phase transition properties valuable for neuromorphic computing and thermochromic windows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Complementing a continuum thermodynamic approach to constitutive modeling with symbolic regression

Here, an interpretable machine learning method, physics-informed genetic programming-based symbolic regression (P-GPSR), is integrated into a continuum thermodynamic approach to developing constitutive models. The proposed strategy for combining a thermodynamic analysis with P-GPSR is demonstrated by generating a yield function for an idealized material with voids, i.e., the Gurson yield function. First, a thermodynamic-based analysis is used to derive model requirements that are exploited in a custom P-GPSR implementation as fitness criteria or are strongly enforced in the solution. The P-GPSR implementation improved accuracy, generalizability, and training time compared to the same GPSR code without physics-informed fitness criteria. The yield function generated through the P-GPSR framework is in the form of a composite function that describes a class of materials and is characteristically more interpretable than GPSR-derived equations. The physical significance of the input functions learned by P-GPSR within the composite function is acquired from the thermodynamic analysis. Fundamental explanations of why the implemented P-GPSR capabilities improve results over a conventional GPSR algorithm are provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2022

Comparison of U.S. and Russian Slow Crack Growth Data and Models

Both the US and Russian space programs use similar predictive models for design of fused silica windows on the International space station. The Russian model can be derived from the power expression for slow crack growth (SCG) or “static fatigue.” The US uses both power and exponential models. Despite the similarity of models and data fitting approach (linear regression and right censoring), different SCG parameters have been derived by US and Russian parties for the same material (Russian fused silica) tested in a similar manner. The difference appears to be related to the use of short-term strength data along with the longer-term static fatigue data, with the power law parameter n being very sensitive to the conversion of strength data into equivalent static data. This hybrid approach is feasible if strength data is measured with a constant stress rate and is appropriately converted to a static equivalent. More research into the approach is needed. However, because of the nonlinear behavior of fused silica in log(v) – log(K(I) ) space and the sensitivity of parameter estimation to fit range, the exponential model is a better choice regardless of test method. Functions are given to convert parameters from the Russian model to those in the US model. However, accurate conversion is hampered by the lack of inert strength data. When the same test technique is used, US and Russian materials exhibit very similar parameters.

Silica, strength, impact, crack growth, windows, I↗
DOE OSTI2024

CovTransformer: A transformer model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting

With hundreds of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the global population, there is an ongoing need for predicting and forecasting lineage frequencies and thus identifying rapidly expanding lineages. Accurate prediction would allow for more focused experimental efforts to understand pathogenicity of future dominating lineages and characterize the extent of their immune escape. Here, we first show that the inherent noise and biases in lineage frequency data make a commonly-used regression-based approach unreliable. To address this weakness, we constructed a machine learning model for SARS-CoV-2 lineage frequency forecasting, called CovTransformer, based on the transformer architecture. We designed our model to navigate challenges such as a limited amount of data with high levels of noise and bias. We first trained and tested the model using data from the UK and the USA, and then tested the generalization ability of the model to many other countries and US states. Remarkably, the trained model makes accurate predictions two months into the future with high levels of accuracy both globally (in 31 countries with high levels of sequencing effort) and at the US-state level. Our model performed substantially better than a widely used forecasting tool, the multinomial regression model implemented in Nextstrain, demonstrating its utility in SARS-CoV-2 monitoring. Assuming a newly emerged lineage is identified and assigned, our test using retrospective data shows that our model is able to identify the dominating lineages 7 weeks in advance on average before they became dominant. Overall, our work demonstrates that transformer models represent a promising approach for SARS-CoV-2 forecasting and pandemic monitoring.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping foliar photosynthetic capacity in sub-tropical and tropical forests with UAS-based imaging spectroscopy: Scaling from leaf to canopy

Accurate understanding of the variability in foliar physiological traits across landscapes is critical to improve parameterization and evaluation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that seek to represent the response of terrestrial ecosystems to a changing climate. Numerous studies suggest imaging spectroscopy can characterize foliar biochemical and morphological traits at the canopy scale, but there is only limited evidence for retrieving canopy photosynthetic capacity (e.g., maximum carboxylation rate, V c,max and maximum electron transport rate, J max ). Moreover, the effect of canopy structure within forest communities on scaling up spectra-trait relationships from leaf to canopy level is not well known. To advance the spectra-trait approach and enable the estimation of key traits using remote sensing, we collected imaging spectroscopy data from an Unoccupied Aerial System (UAS) platform over two forest sites in China (a subtropical forest in Mt. Dinghu and a tropical rainforest in Xishuangbanna). At these sites, we also collected ground measurements of leaf spectra and traits, including biochemical (leaf nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll, and water content), morphological (leaf mass per area, LMA) and physiological (V c,max25 and J max25 ) traits (n=135 tree-crowns from 42 species across two sites). Using a partial least-squares regression (PLSR) approach, we built and tested spectra-trait models with repeated cross-validation. The spectral models developed with leaf spectra were directly transferred to canopy spectra to evaluate the effect of canopy structure. Here we further applied canopy spectral models to map these traits at individual tree-crown scale. The results demonstrate that (1) UAS-based canopy spectra can be used to estimate V c,max (R 2 =0.55, nRMSE=11.79%), Jmax (R 2 =0.54, nRMSE=12.34%), and five additional foliar traits (R 2 =0.38-0.60, nRMSE=10.11-13.56%) at the tree-crown scale with demonstrated generalizability across two sites; (2) canopy structure strongly affects the spectratrait relationships from leaf to canopy level, but the effects vary considerably across foliar traits and cannot be well captured by the 4SAIL canopy radiative transfer model. UAS-based imaging spectroscopy maps large variability in all foliar traits (including physiological traits) with spatially explicit information, reproducing the field-observed inter- and intra-specific variations. These results demonstrate the capability of using UAS-based imaging spectroscopy for characterizing the variability of foliar physiological traits at individual tree-crown scale over forest landscapes and highlight the similar generalizability but different biophysical mechanisms underlying spectra-trait relationships at leaf and canopy levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model selection and signal extraction using Gaussian Process regression

We present a novel computational approach for extracting localized signals from smooth background distributions. We focus on datasets that can be naturally presented as binned integer counts, demonstrating our procedure on the CERN open dataset with the Higgs boson signature, from the ATLAS collaboration at the Large Hadron Collider. Our approach is based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression — a powerful and flexible machine learning technique which has allowed us to model the background without specifying its functional form explicitly and separately measure the background and signal contributions in a robust and reproducible manner. Unlike functional fits, our GP-regression-based approach does not need to be constantly updated as more data becomes available. We discuss how to select the GP kernel type, considering trade-offs between kernel complexity and its ability to capture the features of the background distribution. We show that our GP framework can be used to detect the Higgs boson resonance in the data with more statistical significance than a polynomial fit specifically tailored to the dataset. Finally, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to confirm the statistical significance of the extracted Higgs signature.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring biofiber properties and their influence on biocomposite tensile properties

Biofibers serve as effective reinforcements for neat polylactic acid (PLA) in biocomposites, offering an attractive opportunity to decarbonize the manufacturing sector of the United States by displacing fossil-based reinforcement fibers such as carbon fibers. Also, biofiber production can stimulate economic growth in rural economies, fueling sustainable development. PLA resins are commonly compounded with biofibers to create biocomposites suitable for additive manufacturing. PLA-biofiber composites often exhibit better overall material properties than neat (pure) PLA, but the associations between biofiber properties and the material properties of their biocomposites remain largely unexplored. Hence, this research delves into a comprehensive exploration of diverse biofibers, scrutinizing their physical and chemical attributes, including size, shape, ash content and biochemical composition. The study meticulously analyzes the flow properties of each biofiber and elucidates the ultimate tensile strengths and Young's modulus of corresponding biocomposite samples. Noteworthy correlations between biofiber and biocomposite tensile properties are uncovered, shedding light on critical interrelationships. The study introduces an approach employing regression models to predict the ultimate tensile strength and Young's modulus of biocomposites. These models, validated with a cross-validation technique, exhibit remarkable predictive accuracy, particularly in estimating ultimate tensile strength. © 2024 Oak Ridge National Laboratory managed by UT-Battelle, LLC and The Author(s). Polymer International published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Historical Development of Large‐Scale Paleoclimate Field Reconstructions Over the Common Era

Abstract Climate field reconstructions (CFRs) combine modern observational data with paleoclimatic proxies to estimate climate variables over spatiotemporal grids during time periods when widespread observations of climatic conditions do not exist. The Common Era (CE) has been a period over which many seasonally‐ and annually‐resolved CFRs have been produced on regional to global scales. CFRs over the CE were first produced in the 1970s using dendroclimatic records and linear regression‐based approaches. Since that time, many new CFRs have been produced using a wide range of proxy data sets and reconstruction techniques. We assess the early history of research on CFRs for the CE, which provides context for our review of advances in CFR research over the last two decades. We review efforts to derive gridded hydroclimatic CFRs over continental regions using networks of tree‐ring proxies. We subsequently explore work to produce hemispheric‐ and global‐scale CFRs of surface temperature using multi‐proxy data sets, before specifically reviewing recently‐developed data assimilation techniques and how they have been used to produce simultaneous reconstructions of multiple climatic fields globally. We then review efforts to develop standardized and digitized databases of proxy networks for use in CFR research, before concluding with some thoughts on important next steps for CFR development.

Smerdon, Jason E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning epistatic polygenic phenotypes with Boolean interactions

Detecting epistatic drivers of human phenotypes is a considerable challenge. Traditional approaches use regression to sequentially test multiplicative interaction terms involving pairs of genetic variants. For higher-order interactions and genome-wide large-scale data, this strategy is computationally intractable. Moreover, multiplicative terms used in regression modeling may not capture the form of biological interactions. Building on the Predictability, Computability, Stability (PCS) framework, we introduce the epiTree pipeline to extract higher-order interactions from genomic data using tree-based models. The epiTree pipeline first selects a set of variants derived from tissue-specific estimates of gene expression. Next, it uses iterative random forests (iRF) to search training data for candidate Boolean interactions (pairwise and higher-order). We derive significance tests for interactions, based on a stabilized likelihood ratio test, by simulating Boolean tree-structured null (no epistasis) and alternative (epistasis) distributions on hold-out test data. Finally, our pipeline computes PCS epistasis p-values that probabilisticly quantify improvement in prediction accuracy via bootstrap sampling on the test set. We validate the epiTree pipeline in two case studies using data from the UK Biobank: predicting red hair and multiple sclerosis (MS). In the case of predicting red hair, epiTree recovers known epistatic interactions surrounding MC1R and novel interactions, representing non-linearities not captured by logistic regression models. In the case of predicting MS, a more complex phenotype than red hair, epiTree rankings prioritize novel interactions surrounding HLA-DRB1 , a variant previously associated with MS in several populations. Taken together, these results highlight the potential for epiTree rankings to help reduce the design space for follow up experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the specificity between mapping of initial and final states of the magneto Rayleigh-Taylor instability

In this LDRD we investigated the application of machine learning methods to understand dimensionality reduction and evolution of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI). As part of the project, we undertook a significant literature review to understand current analytical theory and machine learning based methods to treat evolution of this instability. We note that we chose to refocus on assessing the hydrodynamic RTI as opposed to the magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability originally proposed. This choice enabled utilizing a wealth of analytic test cases and working with relatively fast running open-source simulations of single-mode RTI. This greatly facilitated external collaboration with URA summer fellowship student, Theodore Broeren. In this project we studied the application of methods from dynamical systems learning and traditional regression methods to recover behavior of RTI ranging from the fully nonlinear to weakly nonlinear (wNL) regimes. Here we report on two of the tested methods SINDy and a more traditional regression-based approach inspired by analytic wNL theory with which we had the most success. We conclude with a discussion of potential future extensions to this work that may improve our understanding from both theoretical and phenomenological perspectives.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detecting Arsenic Contamination Using Satellite Imagery and Machine Learning

Arsenic, a potent carcinogen and neurotoxin, affects over 200 million people globally. Current detection methods are laborious, expensive, and unscalable, being difficult to implement in developing regions and during crises such as COVID-19. This study attempts to determine if a relationship exists between soil’s hyperspectral data and arsenic concentration using NASA’s Hyperion satellite. It is the first arsenic study to use satellite-based hyperspectral data and apply a classification approach. Four regression machine learning models are tested to determine this correlation in soil with bare land cover. Raw data are converted to reflectance, problematic atmospheric influences are removed, characteristic wavelengths are selected, and four noise reduction algorithms are tested. The combination of data augmentation, Genetic Algorithm, Second Derivative Transformation, and Random Forest regression (R 2 =0.840 and normalized root mean squared error (re-scaled to [0,1]) = 0.122) shows strong correlation, performing better than past models despite using noisier satellite data (versus lab-processed samples). Three binary classification machine learning models are then applied to identify high-risk shrub-covered regions in ten U.S. states, achieving strong accuracy (=0.693) and F1-score (=0.728). Overall, these results suggest that such a methodology is practical and can provide a sustainable alternative to arsenic contamination detection.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
NASA NTRS1990

Is it possible to identify a trend in problem/failure data

One of the major obstacles in identifying and interpreting a trend is the small number of data points. Future trending reports will begin with 1983 data. As the problem/failure data are aggregated by year, there are just seven observations (1983 to 1989) for the 1990 reports. Any statistical inferences with a small amount of data will have a large degree of uncertainty. Consequently, a regression technique approach to identify a trend is limited. Though trend determination by failure mode may be unrealistic, the data may be explored for consistency or stability and the failure rate investigated. Various alternative data analysis procedures are briefly discussed. Techniques that could be used to explore problem/failure data by failure mode are addressed. The data used are taken from Section One, Space Shuttle Main Engine, of the Calspan Quarterly Report dated April 2, 1990.

Church, Curtis K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Study on the Potential Applications of Satellite Data in Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting

In this study we explore the potential applications of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) -like satellite sensors in air quality research for some Asian regions. The MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT), NCEP global reanalysis meteorological data, and daily surface PM(sub 10) concentrations over China and Thailand from 2001 to 2009 were analyzed using simple and multiple regression models. The AOT-PM(sub 10) correlation demonstrates substantial seasonal and regional difference, likely reflecting variations in aerosol composition and atmospheric conditions, Meteorological factors, particularly relative humidity, were found to influence the AOT-PM(sub 10) relationship. Their inclusion in regression models leads to more accurate assessment of PM(sub 10) from space borne observations. We further introduced a simple method for employing the satellite data to empirically forecast surface particulate pollution, In general, AOT from the previous day (day 0) is used as a predicator variable, along with the forecasted meteorology for the following day (day 1), to predict the PM(sub 10) level for day 1. The contribution of regional transport is represented by backward trajectories combined with AOT. This method was evaluated through PM(sub 10) hindcasts for 2008-2009, using ohservations from 2005 to 2007 as a training data set to obtain model coefficients. For five big Chinese cities, over 50% of the hindcasts have percentage error less than or equal to 30%. Similar performance was achieved for cities in northern Thailand. The MODIS AOT data are responsible for at least part of the demonstrated forecasting skill. This method can be easily adapted for other regions, but is probably most useful for those having sparse ground monitoring networks or no access to sophisticated deterministic models. We also highlight several existing issues, including some inherent to a regression-based approach as exemplified by a case study for Beijing, Further studies will be necessa1Y before satellite data can see more extensive applications in the operational air quality monitoring and forecasting.

Li, Can↗