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A detailed look is given to software reliability techniques. A conceptual model of the failure process is examined, and some software reliability growth models are discussed. Problems for which no current solutions exist are addressed, emphasizing the very difficult problem of safety-critical systems for which the reliability requirements can be enormously demanding.
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For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new, PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating in high latitude ionosphere, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters is approximately 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.
For improving the reliability of Space Weather prediction, we developed a new, Polar Magnetic (PM) index of geomagnetic activity, which shows high correlation with both upstream solar wind data and related events in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Similarly to the existing polar cap PC index, the new PM index was computed from data from two near-pole geomagnetic observatories; however, the method for computing the PM index is different. The high correlation of the PM index with both solar wind data and events in Geospace environment makes possible to improve significantly forecasting geomagnetic disturbances and such important parameters as the cross-polar-cap voltage and global Joule heating, which play an important role in the development of geomagnetic, ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. We tested the PM index for 10-year period (1995-2004). The correlation between PM index and upstream solar wind data for these years is very high (the average correlation coefficient R approximately equal to 0.86). The PM index also shows the high correlation with the cross-polar-cap voltage and hemispheric Joule heating (the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values of these parameters approximately equal to 0.9), which results in significant increasing the prediction reliability of these parameters. Using the PM index of geomagnetic activity provides a significant increase in the forecasting reliability of geomagnetic disturbances and related events in Geospace environment. The PM index may be also used as an important input parameter in modeling ionospheric, magnetospheric, and thermospheric processes.
Abstract not provided.
It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won’t happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures.
It has long been well known that actual system reliability typically falls well short of early estimates. Failure rates are often ten or more times higher than anticipated. Many reasons have been given for this, but over-optimism is the fundamental cause of too-favorable reliability predictions. Most forecasts of reliability are essentially best-case scenarios, as are predictions of budget and schedule. Confident engineers assemble estimates bottom-up, including the known factors and ignoring problems that they hope won't happen. Traditional reliability estimation is based on simply summing up the component failure rates. This ignores most actual failure causes. The way to reduce over-optimism is to use the historical system level failure rate from similar projects. Adjustments should not be made based purely on engineering judgment, but only if there is so logical quantitative justification. The traditional component-based reliability estimate is useful as a lower bound on the system failure rate. The difference between this lower bound component-based reliability and the historical system level reliability indicates how much of the total failure rate is due to system level problems rather than component failures
Techniques for analysis and prediction of equipment reliability during design
ABSTRACT We present a simple, differentiable method for predicting emission line strengths from rest-frame optical continua using an empirically determined mapping. Extensive work has been done to develop mock galaxy catalogues that include robust predictions for galaxy photometry, but reliably predicting the strengths of emission lines has remained challenging. Our new mapping is a simple neural network implemented using the JAX Python automatic differentiation library. It is trained on Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Early Release data to predict the equivalent widths (EWs) of the eight brightest optical emission lines (including H α, H β, [O ii], and [O iii]) from a galaxy’s rest-frame optical continuum. The predicted EW distributions are consistent with the observed ones when noise is accounted for, and we find Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient ρs > 0.87 between predictions and observations for most lines. Using a non-linear dimensionality reduction technique, we show that this is true for galaxies across the full range of observed spectral energy distributions. In addition, we find that adding measurement uncertainties to the predicted line strengths is essential for reproducing the distribution of observed line-ratios in the BPT diagram. Our trained network can easily be incorporated into a differentiable stellar population synthesis pipeline without hindering differentiability or scalability with GPUs. A synthetic catalogue generated with such a pipeline can be used to characterize and account for biases in the spectroscopic training sets used for training and calibration of photo-z’s, improving the modelling of systematic incompleteness for the Rubin Observatory LSST and other surveys.
Mechanistic, constraint-based models of microbial isolates or communities are a staple in the metabolic analysis toolbox, but predictions about microbe-microbe and microbe-environment interactions are only as good as the accuracy of transporter annotations. A number of hurdles stand in the way of comprehensive functional assignments for membrane transporters. These include general or non-specific substrate assignments, ambiguity in the localization, directionality and reversibility of a transporter, and the many-to-many mapping of substrates, transporters and genes. In this perspective, we summarize progress in both experimental and computational approaches used to determine the function of transporters and consider paths forward that integrate both. Investment in accurate, high-throughput functional characterization is needed to train the next-generation of predictive tools toward genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions that better predict phenotypes and interactions. More reliable predictions in this domain will benefit fields ranging from personalized medicine to metabolic engineering to microbial ecology.
This presentation provides a Residual Risk Evaluation Technique (RRET) developed by Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) Launch Services Division. This technique is one of many procedures used by S&MA at KSC to evaluate residual risks for each Expendable Launch Vehicle (ELV) mission. RRET is a straight forward technique that incorporates the proven methodology of risk management, fault tree analysis, and reliability prediction. RRET derives a system reliability impact indicator from the system baseline reliability and the system residual risk reliability values. The system reliability impact indicator provides a quantitative measure of the reduction in the system baseline reliability due to the identified residual risks associated with the designated ELV mission. An example is discussed to provide insight into the application of RRET.
Reliability prediction and failure mode analyses for mechanical feedback servoactuator
The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.
Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.
Software reliability research is briefly described. General research topics are reliability growth models, quality of software reliability prediction, the complete monotonicity property of reliability growth, conceptual modelling of software failure behavior, assurance of ultrahigh reliability, and analysis techniques for fault-tolerant systems.
Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.
X-ray diffraction patterns contain information about the atomistic structure and microstructure (defect population) of materials, extracting detailed information from diffraction patterns is complex, demanding and relies on prior knowledge. Here, we hypothesize that deep-learning techniques can help to perform an effective and accurate analysis with high throughput rates. To demonstrate this concept, we applied a novel deep learning framework to determine the evolution of the β-phase volume fraction in a Ti–6Al–4V alloy during heat-treatment from video sequences of 2D diffraction patterns recorded in transmission and with highly monochromatic radiation in a synchrotron beamline. In particular, we studied the impact of network design on prediction reliability and computational performance. Networks of different architectures were trained using 3008 experimental 2D patterns. A well-tuned model was found to reproduce the phase fractions of another experimental data set, consisting of 1100 diffraction patterns, with a mean-square error as small as 2.6 x 10 -4 . The average prediction error of β-phase volume fraction was within 1.6 x 10 -2 (in each diffraction pattern) of the values obtained by conventional methods. Our work demonstrates that convolutional neural networks can evaluate high energy X-ray diffraction patterns with a remarkable level of reliability. Furthermore, it demonstrates the significance of network design on the reliability of predictions and computational performance. The most complex models do not necessarily result in highest accuracy and may even fail to learn from the data.