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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2021

A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number for Microemulsions Based on Molecular Properties

The chemical properties of oils are vital in the design of microemulsion systems. The hydrophilic–lipophilic difference equation used to predict microemulsions’ phase behavior expresses the oils’ physiochemical properties as the equivalent alkane carbon number (EACN). The experimental determination of EACN requires knowledge of the temperature dependence of the microemulsion system and the effects of different surfactant concentrations. Thus, the experimental determination is time-intensive and tedious, requiring days to months for proper separations. Furthermore, the experiments require high purity of chemicals because microemulsions are sensitive to impurities. Our work focuses on the quick and reliable predictions of the EACN with machine learning (ML) models. Due to the immaturity of ML chemical predictions, we compare three graph neural networks (GNNs) and a gradient-boosted tree algorithm, known as XGBoost. The GNNs use the molecular structures represented as simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES) codes for the initial input, which allows us to assess whether geometry optimization is necessary for reliable results. The XGBoost model also begins with the SMILES representations of the molecules but uses molecular descriptors instead of geometry optimizations. As a result, the best model tested (crystal graph convolutional neural network with Merck molecular force field-94) has an error of 1.15 EACN units of the true EACN for unknown data with the errors skewed toward zero and an R² score of 0.9

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Materials in Extremes [Slides]

Goals: Realization of advanced predictive models that capture aspects of processing structure-properties-performance (PSPP) in ways that build on scale bridging, data science, and transformational physics insights from experiments; Based on a robust and seamless integration of sample manufacturing, characterization (pre- and post-mortem), theory and simulation, and novel experiments; Ultimately we want to be able to reliably predict performance, and control the functionality of materials in extreme environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Six Machine-Learning Methods for Predicting Hospital-Stay Duration for Patients with Sepsis: A Comparative Study

Sepsis is a life-threatening medical condition that, if not treated promptly, can result in tissue damage, organ failure, and death. According to the Centers for Disease Control, about 270,000 individuals die of sepsis in the US each year. Further, sepsis expenditures accounted for 13% of total US hospital costs in 2013, totaling more than $24 billion. Our project objectives were to determine if Machine Learning algorithms could reliably predict hospital stay duration for patients with sepsis. The data set we used has been de-identified and is freely available through the BupaR package. The data includes 1050 cases, 15214 events, and 16 types of actions related to sepsis patient care. First, we used process mining to determine how long each patient was in the hospital. Using BupaR’s functions, we created several process model graphs. These process models depict the movement of patients at a hospital and provide duration data for each patent case. Second, we identified outlier data and created two dataset versions: one with and one without outliers. We then applied the following analysis methods: Linear Regression, Random Forest, K-Nearest Neighbors, Neural Networks, XGBoost, and lightGBM. We compared the model validations for the six machine learning models using the same data-splitting method. We found that the XGBoost model had the best prediction accuracy of 73.9 percent for cases with outliers, and 79 percent for cases without outliers. We also found that the lightGBM model had the lowest mean absolute error between prediction and actual duration in days with 3.66 days for the case with outliers, and 2.4 days for the case without outliers. These two models outperformed the other four models. This work will be enhanced in the future by exploring new prediction algorithms and comparing them with the results of this study.

Chen, Lingtao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Prediction of Infrasound Arrival Times and Directions from Stationary and Moving Impulsive Sources

This report addresses the need to predict infrasound signal arrival times and back azimuths at monitoring stations, enabling more focused and efficient searches within recorded waveform data. The primary challenge is estimating expected signal arrival windows for stationary and moving acoustic sources, such as chemical explosions, volcanic eruptions, meteoroids, and spacecraft re-entry events. To address this challenge, a reproducible methodology is described that uses simplified propagation speeds for boundary layer, tropospheric, stratospheric, and thermospheric atmospheric waveguides. While the Python source code itself is not freely available, this document provides detailed, step-by-step instructions, and equations enabling users to replicate and adapt the method independently. The method reliably predicts signal arrival intervals and back azimuths, thereby supporting rapid detection and accurate interpretation of infrasound events. Results demonstrate that this method effectively identifies plausible signal arrival intervals and directions, facilitating faster event detection and more reliable interpretation. This methodology directly supports atmospheric monitoring, planetary defense, and forensic analysis of explosive atmospheric events.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational prediction of the effect of amino acid changes on the binding affinity between SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and human ACE2

The association of the receptor binding domain (RBD) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein with human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2) represents the first required step for cellular entry. SARS-CoV-2 has continued to evolve with the emergence of several novel variants, and amino acid changes in the RBD have been implicated with increased fitness and potential for immune evasion. Reliably predicting the effect of amino acid changes on the ability of the RBD to interact more strongly with the hACE2 can help assess the implications for public health and the potential for spillover and adaptation into other animals. Here, we introduce a two-step framework that first relies on 48 independent 4-ns molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories of RBD-hACE2 variants to collect binding energy terms decomposed into Coulombic, covalent, van der Waals, lipophilic, generalized Born solvation, hydrogen bonding, π-π packing, and self-contact correction terms. The second step implements a neural network to classify and quantitatively predict binding affinity changes using the decomposed energy terms as descriptors. The computational base achieves a validation accuracy of 82.8% for classifying single–amino acid substitution variants of the RBD as worsening or improving binding affinity for hACE2 and a correlation coefficient of 0.73 between predicted and experimentally calculated changes in binding affinities. Both metrics are calculated using a fivefold cross-validation test. Our method thus sets up a framework for screening binding affinity changes caused by unknown single– and multiple–amino acid changes offering a valuable tool to predict host adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 variants toward tighter hACE2 binding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-free estimation of completeness, uncertainties, and outliers in atomistic machine learning using information theory

Abstract An accurate description of information is relevant for a range of problems in atomistic machine learning (ML), such as crafting training sets, performing uncertainty quantification (UQ), or extracting physical insights from large datasets. However, atomistic ML often relies on unsupervised learning or model predictions to analyze information contents from simulation or training data. Here, we introduce a theoretical framework that provides a rigorous, model-free tool to quantify information contents in atomistic simulations. We demonstrate that the information entropy of a distribution of atom-centered environments explains known heuristics in ML potential developments, from training set sizes to dataset optimality. Using this tool, we propose a model-free UQ method that reliably predicts epistemic uncertainty and detects out-of-distribution samples, including rare events in systems such as nucleation. This method provides a general tool for data-driven atomistic modeling and combines efforts in ML, simulations, and physical explainability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Milestone in predicting core plasma turbulence: successful multi-channel validation of the gyrokinetic code GENE

On the basis of several recent breakthroughs in fusion research, many activities have been launched around the world to develop fusion power plants on the fastest possible time scale. In this context, high-fidelity simulations of the plasma behavior on large supercomputers provide one of the main pathways to accelerating progress by guiding crucial design decisions. When it comes to determining the energy confinement time of a magnetic confinement fusion device, which is a key quantity of interest, gyrokinetic turbulence simulations are considered the approach of choice – but the question, whether they are really able to reliably predict the plasma behavior is still open. The present study addresses this important issue by means of careful comparisons between state-of-the-art gyrokinetic turbulence simulations with the GENE code and experimental observations in the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak for an unprecedented number of simultaneous plasma observables.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Theory uncertainties of the irreducible background to VBF Higgs production

Higgs boson production through gluon fusion in association with two jets is an irreducible background to Higgs boson production through vector boson fusion, one of the most important channels for analyzing and understanding the Higgs boson properties at the Large Hadron Collider. Despite a range of available simulation tools, precise predictions for the corresponding final states are notoriously hard to achieve. Using state-of-the-art fixed-order calculations as the baseline for a comparison, we perform a detailed study of similarities and differences in existing event generators. We provide consistent setups for the simulations that can be used to obtain identical parametric precision in various programs used by experiments. We find that NLO calculations for the two-jet final state are essential to achieve reliable predictions.

Chen, Xuan [Shandong U.] (ORCID:0000000167722196)↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-heat transfer lithium-ion batteries: A new era in battery thermal management

Despite advances in lithium-ion battery technology, critical challenges remain that must be addressed to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption and global energy transformation. Significantly improved battery thermal management (BTM) is key to overcoming these challenges. BTM approaches focus on increasing heat transfer coefficients via air, liquid, or refrigerant cooling, but less attention is given to reducing the battery's thermal resistance, a major bottleneck for heat transfer. This work introduces a novel approach to reduce battery thermal resistance by integrating in-plane heat transfer with optimized cell geometry, minimized thermal resistances, and reduced interfacial resistances, representing a departure from previous methods. The standard prismatic can cell incorporating this technology is referred to as the high heat transfer (HHT) battery. An equivalent resistance battery thermal model is developed for speed and accuracy, validated against experimental data in the literature, demonstrating strong correlation and ensuring reliable predictions for real-world performance. Thermal performance metrics of the conventional and HHT batteries are compared using a parametric study with air, liquid, and refrigerant boundary conditions across a range of aspect ratios. The HHT battery shows a heat removal rate up to 20 times higher than a conventional battery. These findings suggest that HHT technology could be transformative for EV battery performance, enabling fast charging, mitigating thermal runaway, extending battery life, reducing cold-weather power loss, increasing reliability, lowering costs, and enabling higher energy density, all critical for EV adoption and energy transformation. Future work will focus on prototyping and real-world testing to refine these findings for commercial-scale applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning workflow for the inverse design of molecules with specific optoelectronic properties

The inverse design of novel molecules with a desirable optoelectronic property requires consideration of the vast chemical spaces associated with varying chemical composition and molecular size. First principles-based property predictions have become increasingly helpful for assisting the selection of promising candidate chemical species for subsequent experimental validation. However, a brute-force computational screening of the entire chemical space is decidedly impossible. To alleviate the computational burden and accelerate rational molecular design, we here present an iterative deep learning workflow that combines (i) the density-functional tight-binding method for dynamic generation of property training data, (ii) a graph convolutional neural network surrogate model for rapid and reliable predictions of chemical and physical properties, and (iii) a masked language model. As proof of principle, we employ our workflow in the iterative generation of novel molecules with a target energy gap between the highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (LUMO).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reactive Transport Modeling with Physics-Informed Machine Learning for Critical Minerals Applications

This study presents a physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for reactive transport modeling for simulating fast bimolecular reactions in porous media. Accurate characterization of cAhemical interactions and product formation in surface and subsurface environments is essential for advancing critical mineral extraction and related geoscience applications. The proposed methodology sequentially addresses the flow and diffusion–reaction subproblems. The flow field is computed using a mixed formulation, while the diffusion–reaction system is modeled via two uncoupled tensorial diffusion equations reformulated in terms of chemical invariants. PINNs are employed to solve the governing equations, enabling data-efficient, mesh-free prediction of chemical concentration fields. The framework is validated through a series of benchmark problems involving flow in heterogeneous porous media. Initial verification is conducted using patch tests for the flow field, followed by validation of the transport problem with emphasis on preserving non-negativity of concentrations. The complete fast bimolecular reaction scenario is then solved, yielding spatial distributions of reactants and product species. Results demonstrate that the PINNs-based approach effectively captures sharp, mixing-limited reaction fronts and dispersive mixing behavior, offering reliable predictions of reactive plume evolution. These capabilities are crucial for evaluating long-term subsurface behavior in applications such as fluid storage, energy extraction, and efficient extraction of critical minerals.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A nudged hybrid analysis and modeling approach for realtime wake-vortex transport and decay prediction

Here, we put forth a long short-term memory (LSTM) nudging framework for the enhancement of reduced order models (ROMs) of fluid flows utilizing noisy measurements for air traffic improvements. Toward emerging applications of digital twins in aviation, the proposed approach allows for constructing a realtime predictive tool for wake-vortex transport and decay systems. We build on the fact that in realistic application, there are uncertainties in initial and boundary conditions, model parameters, as well as measurements. Moreover, conventional nonlinear ROMs based on Galerkin projection (GROMs) suffer from imperfection and solution instabilities, especially for advection-dominated flows with slow decay in the Kolmogorov n-width. In the presented LSTM nudging (LSTM-N) approach, we fuse forecasts from a combination of imperfect GROM and uncertain state estimates, with sparse Eulerian sensor measurements to provide more reliable predictions in a dynamical data assimilation framework. We illustrate our concept by solving the two-dimensional vorticity transport equation. We investigate the effects of measurements noise and state estimate uncertainty on the performance of the LSTM-N behavior. We also demonstrate that it can sufficiently handle different levels of temporal and spatial measurement sparsity, and offer a huge potential in developing next-generation digital twin technologies for aerospace applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of IMEP on Alcator C-Mod and JET-ILW ELMy H-mode plasmas

Abstract The recently developed integrated model based on engineering parameters (IMEP) (Luda et al 2020 Nucl. Fusion 61 126048; Luda et al 2021 Nucl. Fusion 60 036023), so far validated on ASDEX Upgrade, has been tested on a database of 3 Alcator C-Mod and 55 JET-ILW ELMy (type I) H-mode stationary phases. The empirical pedestal transport model included in IMEP, consisting now of imposing a fixed value of R < ∇ T e > / T e , t o p = − 82.5 , allows an accurate prediction of the pedestal top temperature (when the pedestal top density is fixed to the experimental measurements) across these three machines with different sizes, when the pedestal is peeling–ballooning (PB) limited. Cases far from the ideal PB boundary, corresponding to high edge Spitzer resistivity, are instead strongly overpredicted by IMEP. A comparison between the predictions of Europed and IMEP for a subset of JET-ILW cases shows that IMEP can more accurately reproduce the experimental pedestal width. This allows IMEP to better capture profile effects on the pedestal stability, and therefore to correctly describe the negative effect of fueling on the pedestal pressure for PB limited cases. A strong correlation between the separatrix density and the fueling rate has been identified for a subset of JET-ILW cases, when taking into account different divertor configurations. Overall, these promising results encourage further developments of integrated models to obtain reliable predictions of pedestal and global confinement using only engineering parameters for present and future machines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗