Problems in probability - An introduction to the pitfalls to be encountered when using probabilities.
Problems in using probability theory by reliability engineers
PROBABILITY THEORY↗
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Statistical modelling of software reliability
During the six-month period from 1 April 1991 to 30 September 1991 the following research papers in statistical modeling of software reliability appeared: (1) A Nonparametric Software Reliability Growth Model; (2) On the Use and the Performance of Software Reliability Growth Models; (3) Research and Development Issues in Software Reliability Engineering; (4) Special Issues on Software; and (5) Software Reliability and Safety.
Miller, Douglas R.↗
Reliability and Maintainability Engineering - A Major Driver for Safety and Affordability
The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of an effort to design and build a safe and affordable heavy lift vehicle to go to the moon and beyond. To achieve that, NASA is seeking more innovative and efficient approaches to reduce cost while maintaining an acceptable level of safety and mission success. One area that has the potential to contribute significantly to achieving NASA safety and affordability goals is Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) engineering. Inadequate reliability or failure of critical safety items may directly jeopardize the safety of the user(s) and result in a loss of life. Inadequate reliability of equipment may directly jeopardize mission success. Systems designed to be more reliable (fewer failures) and maintainable (fewer resources needed) can lower the total life cycle cost. The Department of Defense (DOD) and industry experience has shown that optimized and adequate levels of R&M are critical for achieving a high level of safety and mission success, and low sustainment cost. Also, lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program clearly demonstrated the importance of R&M engineering in designing and operating safe and affordable launch systems. The Challenger and Columbia accidents are examples of the severe impact of design unreliability and process induced failures on system safety and mission success. These accidents demonstrated the criticality of reliability engineering in understanding component failure mechanisms and integrated system failures across the system elements interfaces. Experience from the shuttle program also shows that insufficient Reliability, Maintainability, and Supportability (RMS) engineering analyses upfront in the design phase can significantly increase the sustainment cost and, thereby, the total life cycle cost. Emphasis on RMS during the design phase is critical for identifying the design features and characteristics needed for time efficient processing, improved operational availability, and optimized maintenance and logistic support infrastructure. This paper discusses the role of R&M in a program acquisition phase and the potential impact of R&M on safety, mission success, operational availability, and affordability. This includes discussion of the R&M elements that need to be addressed and the R&M analyses that need to be performed in order to support a safe and affordable system design. The paper also provides some lessons learned from the Space Shuttle program on the impact of R&M on safety and affordability.
Safie, Fayssal M.↗
Approach in Achieving High Reliability of the Saturn Class Vehicles
Reliability engineering for Saturn launch vehicles
RELIABILITY↗
Evaluation of engineering foods for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)
The feasibility of developing acceptable and reliable engineered foods for use in controlled ecological support systems (CELSS) was evaluated. Food resupply and regeneration are calculated, flow charts of food processes in a multipurpose food pilot plant are presented, and equipment for a multipurpose food pilot plant and potential simplification of processes are discussed. Food-waste treatment and water usage in food processing and preparation are also considered.
Karel, M.↗
Nasa's reliability requirements.
Nasa requirements for space systems reliability engineering, program management and test and evaluation
RELIABILITY↗
Boundary Layer Transition on X-43A
The successful Mach 7 and 10 flights of the first fully integrated scramjet propulsion systems by the Hyper-X (X-43A) program have provided the means with which to verify the original design methodologies and assumptions. As part of Hyper-X s propulsion-airframe integration, the forebody was designed to include a spanwise array of vortex generators to promote boundary layer transition ahead of the engine. Turbulence at the inlet is thought to provide the most reliable engine design and allows direct scaling of flight results to groundbased data. Pre-flight estimations of boundary layer transition, for both Mach 7 and 10 flight conditions, suggested that forebody boundary layer trips were required to ensure fully turbulent conditions upstream of the inlet. This paper presents the results of an analysis of the thermocouple measurements used to infer the dynamics of the transition process during the trajectories for both flights, on both the lower surface (to assess trip performance) and the upper surface (to assess natural transition). The approach used in the analysis of the thermocouple data is outlined, along with a discussion of the calculated local flow properties that correspond to the transition events as identified in the flight data. The present analysis has confirmed that the boundary layer trips performed as expected for both flights, providing turbulent flow ahead of the inlet during critical portions of the trajectory, while the upper surface was laminar as predicted by the pre-flight analysis.
Berry, Scott↗
Failure-Tolerant Avionics for Crewed Space Systems Recommended Best Practices
This paper provides an overview of some of the major steps needed to mature and justify the design of an avionics system for crewed spacecraft. It is organized as a collection of artifacts or pieces of evidence that NASA needs to assess the system at design reviews, including a functional failure modes and effects analysis (FFMEA), fault containment region (FCR) definitions, the failure hypothesis, and reliability analysis. This paper is intended as a reference for designers working on NASA crewed spaceflight projects, reliability engineers responsible for avionics system assessments, and program managers wanting to understand what evidence is required at design reviews to ensure crew safety and mission success.
Avionics↗
Software Reliability 2002
In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.
Wallace, Dolores R.↗
Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis Developed for Turbomachinery Components
Aeroelastic analyses for advanced turbomachines are being developed for use at the NASA Glenn Research Center and industry. However, these analyses at present are used for turbomachinery design with uncertainties accounted for by using safety factors. This approach may lead to overly conservative designs, thereby reducing the potential of designing higher efficiency engines. An integration of the deterministic aeroelastic analysis methods with probabilistic analysis methods offers the potential to design efficient engines with fewer aeroelastic problems and to make a quantum leap toward designing safe reliable engines. In this research, probabilistic analysis is integrated with aeroelastic analysis: (1) to determine the parameters that most affect the aeroelastic characteristics (forced response and stability) of a turbomachine component such as a fan, compressor, or turbine and (2) to give the acceptable standard deviation on the design parameters for an aeroelastically stable system. The approach taken is to combine the aeroelastic analysis of the MISER (MIStuned Engine Response) code with the FPI (fast probability integration) code. The role of MISER is to provide the functional relationships that tie the structural and aerodynamic parameters (the primitive variables) to the forced response amplitudes and stability eigenvalues (the response properties). The role of FPI is to perform probabilistic analyses by utilizing the response properties generated by MISER. The results are a probability density function for the response properties. The probabilistic sensitivities of the response variables to uncertainty in primitive variables are obtained as a byproduct of the FPI technique. The combined analysis of aeroelastic and probabilistic analysis is applied to a 12-bladed cascade vibrating in bending and torsion. Out of the total 11 design parameters, 6 are considered as having probabilistic variation. The six parameters are space-to-chord ratio (SBYC), stagger angle (GAMA), elastic axis (ELAXS), Mach number (MACH), mass ratio (MASSR), and frequency ratio (WHWB). The cascade is considered to be in subsonic flow with Mach 0.7. The results of the probabilistic aeroelastic analysis are the probability density function of predicted aerodynamic damping and frequency for flutter and the response amplitudes for forced response.
Reddy, T. S. R.↗
NASA'S reliability requirements.
NASA reliability program provisions for space system contractors, detailing program management, reliability engineering, testing and evaluation
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗
Light aeroplane engine development
It has frequently been stated and written that in order to popularize light aircraft the first essential is the production of a reliable engine capable of being easily maintained and having a long life, at the same time selling at a low figure. It is desired to point out the difficulties in the way of realizing this ideal before remarking on the claims of the various types for adoption.
ENGINES - DES↗
Investigation of a Verification and Validation Tool with a Turbofan Aircraft Engine Application
The development of more advanced control architectures for turbofan aircraft engines can yield gains in performance and efficiency over the lifetime of an engine. However, the implementation of these increasingly complex controllers is contingent on their ability to provide safe, reliable engine operation. Therefore, having the means to verify the safety of new control algorithms is crucial. As a step towards this goal, CoCoSim, a publicly available verification tool for Simulink, is used to analyze C-MAPSS40k, a 40,000 lbf class turbo-fan engine model developed at NASA for testing new control algorithms. Due to current limitations of the verification software, several modifications are made to C-MAPSS40k to achieve compatibility with CoCoSim. Some of these modifications sacrifice fidelity to the original model. Several safety and performance requirements typical for turbofan engines are identified and constructed into a verification framework. Preliminary results using an industry standard baseline controller for these requirements are presented. While verification capabilities are demonstrated, a truly comprehensive analysis will require further development of the verification tool.
V&↗
A Computer Design Tool for Ceramic Receivers
Gen3 solar receivers and other components will experience a combination of high temperatures and high stress caused by thermal stress and internal pressure. Under these conditions metallic components, even those manufactured from nickel-based superalloys, have poor reliability. Engineering ceramics could be a solution, as these materials have excellent high temperature strength. However, accurately assessing the reliability of a ceramic component operating in these conditions requires an entirely different approach compared to metallic materials. This paper describes the implementation of statistical models for evaluating the reliability of high temperature ceramic components in srlife – an open-source software package for estimating the life of high temperature concentrating solar power equipment. This new capability allows users to make fair comparisons between competing metallic and ceramic component designs and to accurately assess the plant efficiency and economics of ceramic solar receivers and other components.
Messner, Mark (ORCID:0000000200404385)↗
Local Heat Flux Measurements with Single Element Coaxial Injectors
To support the mission for the NASA Vision for Space Exploration, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center conducted a program in 2005 to improve the capability to predict local thermal compatibility and heat transfer in liquid propellant rocket engine combustion devices. The ultimate objective was to predict and hence reduce the local peak heat flux due to injector design, resulting in a significant improvement in overall engine reliability and durability. Such analyses are applicable to combustion devices in booster, upper stage, and in-space engines, as well as for small thrusters with few elements in the injector. In this program, single element and three-element injectors were hot-fire tested with liquid oxygen and ambient temperature gaseous hydrogen propellants at The Pennsylvania State University Cryogenic Combustor Laboratory from May to August 2005. Local heat fluxes were measured in a 1-inch internal diameter heat sink combustion chamber using Medtherm coaxial thermocouples and Gardon heat flux gauges. Injectors were tested with shear coaxial and swirl coaxial elements, including recessed, flush and scarfed oxidizer post configurations, and concentric and non-concentric fuel annuli. This paper includes general descriptions of the experimental hardware, instrumentation, and results of the hot-fire testing for three of the single element injectors - recessed-post shear coaxial with concentric fuel, flush-post swirl coaxial with concentric fuel, and scarfed-post swirl coaxial with concentric fuel. Detailed geometry and test results will be published elsewhere to provide well-defined data sets for injector development and model validatation.
Jones, Gregg↗
Local Heat Flux Measurements with Single and Small Multi-element Coaxial Element-Injectors
To support NASA's Vision for Space Exploration mission, the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center conducted a program in 2005 to improve the capability to predict local thermal compatibility and heat transfer in liquid propellant rocket engine combustion devices. The ultimate objective was to predict and hence reduce the local peak heat flux due to injector design, resulting in a significant improvement in overall engine reliability and durability. Such analyses are applicable to combustion devices in booster, upper stage, and in-space engines with regeneratively cooled chamber walls, as well as in small thrust chambers with few elements in the injector. In this program, single and three-element injectors were hot-fire tested with liquid oxygen and gaseous hydrogen propellants at The Pennsylvania State University Cryogenic Combustor Laboratory from May to August 2005. Local heat fluxes were measured in a 1-inch internal diameter heat sink combustion chamber using Medtherm coaxial thermocouples and Gardon heat flux gauges, Injector configurations were tested with both shear coaxial elements and swirl coaxial elements. Both a straight and a scarfed single element swirl injector were tested. This paper includes general descriptions of the experimental hardware, instrumentation, and results of the hot-fire testing for three coaxial shear and swirl elements. Detailed geometry and test results the for shear coax elements has already been published. Detailed test result for the remaining 6 swirl coax element for the will be published in a future JANNAF presentation to provide well-defined data sets for development and model validation.
Jones, Gregg↗
Evolving Reliability and Maintainability Allocations for NASA Ground Systems
This paper describes the methodology that was developed to allocate reliability and maintainability requirements for the NASA Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) program's subsystems. As systems progressed through their design life cycle and hardware data became available, it became necessary to reexamine the previously derived allocations. Allocating is an iterative process; as systems moved beyond their conceptual and preliminary design phases this provided an opportunity for the reliability engineering team to reevaluate allocations based on updated designs and maintainability characteristics of the components. Trade-offs in reliability and maintainability were essential to ensuring the integrity of the reliability and maintainability analysis. This paper will discuss the value of modifying reliability and maintainability allocations made for the GSDO subsystems as the program nears the end of its design phase.
allocations↗
Reliability and Failure in NASA Missions: Blunders, Normal Accidents, High Reliability, Bad Luck
NASA emphasizes crew safety and system reliability but several unfortunate failures have occurred. The Apollo 1 fire was mistakenly unanticipated. After that tragedy, the Apollo program gave much more attention to safety. The Challenger accident revealed that NASA had neglected safety and that management underestimated the high risk of shuttle. Probabilistic Risk Assessment was adopted to provide more accurate failure probabilities for shuttle and other missions. NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" initiative and government procurement reform led to deliberately dismantling traditional reliability engineering. The Columbia tragedy and Mars mission failures followed. Failures can be attributed to blunders, normal accidents, or bad luck. Achieving high reliability is difficult but possible.
accidents↗