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Mathematically, reliability is the probability of success. First, we will present the calculus needed to comprehend basic probability theory. Second, we will introduce The Reliability Function and its basic properties. Last, we will demonstrate The Reliability Function in a notional fatigue life example.
Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.
Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.
Muon capture on nuclei is one of the most promising probes of the nuclear electroweak current driving the yet-hypothetical neutrinoless double-beta (0νββ) decay. Both processes involve vector and axial-vector currents at finite momentum transfer, q ~ 100 MeV, as well as the induced pseu doscalar and weak-magnetism currents. Comparing measured muon-capture rates with reliable ab initio nuclear-theory predictions could help us validate these currents. To this end, we compute partial muon-capture rates for 6 Li, 12 C and 16 O, feeding the ground and excited states in 6 He, 12 B and 16 N, using ab initio no-core shell model with two- and three-nucleon chiral interactions. Here, we remove the spurious center-of-mass motion by introducing translationally invariant operators and approximate the effect of hadronic two-body currents by Fermi-gas model. We solve the bound-muon wave function from the Dirac wave equations in the Coulomb field created by a finite nucleus. We find that the computed rates to the low-lying states in the final nuclei are in good agreement with the measured counterparts. We highlight sensitivity of some of the transitions to the sub-leading three-nucleon interaction terms. We also compare summed rates to several tens of final states with the measured total capture rates and note that we slightly underestimate the total rate with this simple approach due to limited range of excitation energies
A human mission to Mars will require highly reliable life support systems. Mars life support systems may recycle water and oxygen using systems similar to those on the International Space Station (ISS). However, achieving sufficient reliability is less difficult for ISS than it will be for Mars. If an ISS system has a serious failure, it is possible to provide spare parts, or directly supply water or oxygen, or if necessary bring the crew back to Earth. Life support for Mars must be designed, tested, and improved as needed to achieve high demonstrated reliability. A quantitative reliability goal should be established and used to guide development t. The designers should select reliable components and minimize interface and integration problems. In theory a system can achieve the component-limited reliability, but testing often reveal unexpected failures due to design mistakes or flawed components. Testing should extend long enough to detect any unexpected failure modes and to verify the expected reliability. Iterated redesign and retest may be required to achieve the reliability goal. If the reliability is less than required, it may be improved by providing spare components or redundant systems. The number of spares required to achieve a given reliability goal depends on the component failure rate. If the failure rate is under estimated, the number of spares will be insufficient and the system may fail. If the design is likely to have undiscovered design or component problems, it is advisable to use dissimilar redundancy, even though this multiplies the design and development cost. In the ideal case, a human tended closed system operational test should be conducted to gain confidence in operations, maintenance, and repair. The difficulty in achieving high reliability in unproven complex systems may require the use of simpler, more mature, intrinsically higher reliability systems. The limitations of budget, schedule, and technology may suggest accepting lower and less certain expected reliability. A plan to develop reliable life support is needed to achieve the best possible reliability.
The environmental impact of a next generation fleet of high-speed civil transports (HSCT) is of great concern in the evaluation of the commercial development of such a transport. One of the potential environmental impacts of a high speed civilian transport is the sonic boom generated by the aircraft and its effects on the population, wildlife, and structures in the vicinity of its flight path. If an HSCT aircraft is restricted from flying overland routes due to excessive booms, the commercial feasibility of such a venture may be questionable. NASA has taken the lead in evaluating and resolving the issues surrounding the development of a high speed civilian transport through its High-Speed Research Program (HSRP). The present paper discusses the usage of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) nonlinear code in predicting the pressure signature and ultimately the sonic boom generated by a high speed civilian transport. NASA had designed, built, and wind tunnel tested two low boom configurations for flight at Mach 2 and Mach 3. Experimental data was taken at several distances from these models up to a body length from the axis of the aircraft. The near field experimental data serves as a test bed for computational fluid dynamic codes in evaluating their accuracy and reliability for predicting the behavior of future HSCT designs. Sonic boom prediction methodology exists which is based on modified linear theory. These methods can be used reliably if near field signatures are available at distances from the aircraft where nonlinear and three dimensional effects have diminished in importance. Up to the present time, the only reliable method to obtain this data was via the wind tunnel with costly model construction and testing. It is the intent of the present paper to apply a modified three dimensional Euler code to predict the near field signatures of the two low boom configurations recently tested by NASA.
The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.
The design of new high-energy density molecules as candidates for jet and rocket fuels is an important goal of modern chemical thermodynamics. The NASA Glenn Research Center is home to a database of thermodynamic data for over 2000 compounds related to this goal, in the form of least-squares fits of heat capacities, enthalpies, and entropies as functions of temperature over the range of 300 - 6000 K. The chemical equilibrium with applications (CEA) program written and maintained by researchers at NASA Glenn over the last fifty years, makes use of this database for modeling the performance of potential rocket propellants. During its long history, the NASA Glenn database has been developed based on experimental results and data published in the scientific literature such as the standard JANAF tables. The recent development of efficient computational techniques based on quantum chemical methods provides an alternative source of information for expansion of such databases. For example, it is now possible to model dissociation or combustion reactions of small molecules to high accuracy using techniques such as coupled cluster theory or density functional theory. Unfortunately, the current applicability of reliable computational models is limited to relatively small molecules containing only around a dozen (non-hydrogen) atoms. We propose to extend the applicability of coupled cluster theory- often referred to as the 'gold standard' of quantum chemical methods- to molecules containing 30-50 non-hydrogen atoms. The centerpiece of this work is the concept of local correlation, in which the description of the electron interactions- known as electron correlation effects- are reduced to only their most important localized components. Such an advance has the potential to greatly expand the current reach of computational thermochemistry and thus to have a significant impact on the theoretical study of jet and rocket propellants.
Uranium oxides occur in a variety of phases that differ in crystal structure and uranium oxidation states. Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) is one of the few techniques that has sufficient spatial resolution and sensitivity to electronic structure to distinguish amongst phases at the nanoscale. However, beam-sensitive materials such as uranium oxides are subject to spectral modification due to interactions with the electron beam. Therefore, theory support is essential to reliably exclude the impact of beam damage and generate true reference datasets. Here we use a comparison of theoretical and experimental spectra to probe the impact of beam damage on O K-edge and U N-edge (N6,7 and N4,5) EELS spectra of various single-valent and mixed-valence uranium oxide bulk phases. Using a low-dose experimental set-up, we show that the O K-edge theoretical spectra are in excellent agreement with experiment for both peak positions and relative intensities of respective peaks. In contrast, U N-edge features are less distinguishing due to the partially localized nature of the U 5f orbitals and overlapping multiplet and spin–orbit coupling effects. This work demonstrates that O K-edge EELS is sufficiently diagnostic to distinguish a wide range of uranium oxides and that the experimental approach used here minimizes beam damage and allows valence state discrimination across the U(IV), U(V) and U(VI) series. When combined with imaging modes available in electron mi-croscopy, the work enables detailed investigation and characterization of uranium redox transformations at the nanoscale.
We explore the use of deep learning techniques to learn how nuclear cross sections change as we add or remove protons and neutrons. As a proof of principle, we focus on the neutron-induced reactions in the fast energy regime. Our approach follows a two-stage learning framework. First, we apply representation learning to encode cross section data into a latent space using either variational autoencoders (VAEs) or implicit neural representations (INRs). Then, we train graph neural networks (GNNs) on the resulting embeddings to predict missing values across the nuclear chart by leveraging the topological structure of neighboring isotopes. We demonstrate accurate cross section predictions within a 9 × 9 block of missing nuclei. We also find that the optimal GNN training strategy depends on the type of latent representation used, with VAE embeddings performing best under end-to-end optimization in the original space, while INR embeddings achieve better results when the GNN is trained only in the latent space. Furthermore, using clustering algorithms, we map groups of latent vectors into regions of the nuclear chart and show that VAEs and INRs can discover some of the neutron magic numbers. These findings suggest that deep-learning models based on the representation encoding of cross sections combined with graph neural networks hold significant potential in augmenting nuclear theory models, e.g., by providing reliable estimates of covariances of cross sections, including cross-material covariances.
We propose to measure in low gravity the viscosity of xenon close to its critical point. The accuracy will be sufficient to eliminate uncertainties currently associated with the analysis of l-g experiments. The measurements will provide the first direct observation of the predicted power-law divergence of viscosity in a pure fluid. The measurements will also strengthen Zeno's test of mode coupling theory by greatly increasing the reliability of the extrapolation of viscosity to low reduced temperatures. Our scientific objectives are described in more detail in one of the attached reports. The low-gravity experiment will be the final stage of a program whose completed ground-based stages are: (1) theoretical studies by one of the principal investigators (MRM) and coworkers, (2) critical viscosity measurements of binary liquid mixtures, (3) critical viscosity measurements of pure fluids in l-g, and development of a suitable vibration-insensitive viscometer. Our technical approach is described in the draft Science Requirements Document. One of us (MRM) has reviewed opportunities for critical phenomena research in low gravity. Both of us were co-principal investigators in the Thermal Equilibration Experiment in the Critical Point Facility, flown on IML-1 in 1992. From this experience, and from the technical maturity of our ground-based work, we believe our critical point viscometer is ready for development as a flight experiment.
Silicon carbide fiber reinforced silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) display time-dependent strength degradation at intermediate temperatures (600 to 900 degrees Centigrade). This is generally believed to be an oxidation induced phenomenon. The understanding of the effect of temperature with environment (oxidation) is key towards development of SiC/SiC CMCs with a reliable load carrying capacity. Various theories have been proposed to explain the strength degradation. One suggests that the boron nitride (BN) coating deposited on the fibers oxidizes causing fusion of fibers. Another theory proposes that the SiC fibers are oxidized forming a silica scale leading to premature fiber failure. A more recent theory suggests that SiC fiber strength is intrinsically time-dependent due to slow crack growth of flaws in the fibers. An empirical model, termed as a "fiber classic model," which is based on a standard slow crack growth type power-law, has been implemented within NASA's micromechanics-based MAC/GMC computer code as a user routine. Model parameters for this "classic model" were calibrated from stress-rupture data of Hi-Nicalon (TM) monofilaments using the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique. This new capability in the MAC/GMC computer code was then used to predict the stress-rupture behavior of Hi-Nicalon (TM) tows as well as 2-D SiC/SiC composites reinforced with Hi-Nicalon (TM) fibers. Results demonstrate that the MAC/GMC with this new capability successfully predicts the time-to-failure vs. applied stress within the intermediate temperature range at various scales as well as laminated composites in an oxidizing environment.
One of the attractive advantages of using linear covariance analysis (LinCov) is that it can accurately produce both navigation errors and trajectory dispersions in a fraction of the time comparable to the standard Monte Carlo analysis approach that is traditionally adopted. It also has the capability of generating delta-v dispersions which is perhaps the most influential performance metric since many aspects of a mission design revolve around the anticipated propellant usage. Accurately capturing this key performance criteria using linear covariance techniques has several subtle caveats raising reasonable doubts and a cautious sense of skepticism. This paper outlines multiple approaches of modeling delta-v usage in LinCov, highlights their limitations and advantages, and ultimately compares their corresponding results to the actual Monte Carlo performance. The theory is also extended to reliably account for an arbitrary thruster configuration and the resultant propellant consumptions due to both translational burns and attitude maneuvers. This provides near instant insight into the impacts of thruster layout design and different vehicle mass properties. These derived techniques are applied and verified using an NRHO rendezvous and docking scenario consistent with upcoming NASA Artemis missions for Orion.
Flight computers and flight software are used for GN&C (guidance, navigation, and control), engine controllers, and avionics during missions. The software development requires the generation of a considerable amount of code. The engineers who generate the code make mistakes and the generation of a large body of code with high reliability requires considerable time. Computer-aided software engineering (CASE) tools are available which generates code automatically with inputs through graphical interfaces. These tools are referred to as code generators. In theory, code generators could write highly reliable code quickly and inexpensively. The various code generators offer different levels of reliability checking. Some check only the finished product while some allow checking of individual modules and combined sets of modules as well. Considering NASA's requirement for reliability, an in house manually generated code is needed. Furthermore, automatically generated code is reputed to be as efficient as the best manually generated code when executed. In house verification is warranted.
A generalized life and reliability model is presented for parallel shaft geared prop-fan and turboprop aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on classical fatigue theory and the two parameter Weibull failure distribution. A computer program was developed to calculate the transmission life and reliability. The program is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmission arrangements. However, the program can be modified easily to include additional transmission arrangements. An example is included which compares the life of a compound two-stage transmission with the life of a split-torque, parallel compound two-stage transmission, as calculated by the computer program.
A generalized life and reliability model is presented for parallel shaft geared prop-fan and turboprop aircraft transmissions. The transmission life and reliability model is a combination of the individual reliability models for all the bearings and gears in the main load paths. The bearing and gear reliability models are based on classical fatigue theory and the two parameter Weibull failure distribution. A computer program was developed to calculate the transmission life and reliability. The program is modular. In its present form, the program can analyze five different transmission arrangements. However, the program can be modified easily to include additional transmission arrangements. An example is included which compares the life of a compound two-stage transmission with the life of a split-torque, parallel compound two-stage transmission as calculated by the comaputer program.
In this work, we have introduced an optimized Debye-Grüneisen model that revolutionizes the determination of the Debye temperature and Grüneisen parameters. Unlike conventional methods, our model requires only the 0 K energy volume data for a material as input, eliminating the need to determine the bulk modulus and its pressure derivative, which often pose challenges due to numerical uncertainties. This unique feature sets our model apart from existing approaches and streamlines the process, enabling accurate predictions of thermal expansion behavior across various materials. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we showcase its excellent agreement with measured coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) for the nickel-cobalt-chromium-aluminum-yttrium (Ni-Co-Cr-Al-Y) bond-coating system. Additionally, we apply our approach by conducting a high-throughput search for potential bond-coating materials among 90,000 compositions within the aluminum-cobalt-chromium-iron-nickel (Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni) system. From this extensive search, four compositions are synthesized, and the measured CTE values agree very well with theoretical predictions, hence validating our approach. In conclusion, the current optimized Debye-Grüneisen model combined with Density Functional Theory (DFT)-based thermodynamic database enables reliable and efficient high-throughput calculations of CTE of of a material without expensive phonon calculations.
We consider the problem of statically assigning many tasks to a (smaller) system of homogeneous processors, where a task's structure is modeled as a branching process, and all tasks are assumed to have identical behavior. We show how the theory of majorization can be used to obtain a partial order among possible task assignments. Our results show that if the vector of numbers of tasks assigned to each processor under one mapping is majorized by that of another mapping, then the former mapping is better than the latter with respect to a large number of objective functions. In particular, we show how measurements of finishing time, resource utilization, and reliability are all captured by the theory. We also show how the theory may be applied to the problem of partitioning a pool of processors for distribution among parallelizable tasks.