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DOE OSTI2025

Socio-Techno-Economic Feasibility of Deep Geothermal with EGS for Residential District Heating in the Northeastern United States

In this paper, we present socio-techno-economic simulation results for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) district heating systems in the northeastern United States. We applied the geospatial Distributed Geothermal Market Demand (dGeo) tool coupled with GEOPHIRES to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal deep direct-use, utilizing EGS reservoirs for providing residential heating with district heating systems. The results were combined with JEDI results to assess social impacts. Simulation results assuming doublet EGS reservoirs with target production temperature of 80 degrees C and newly constructed district heating systems indicate a wide range in system levelized cost of heat (LCOH) values ranging from ~$15/MMBtu to over $1,000/MMBtu, with most the attractive regions urban areas with high total thermal demand and high thermal demand density. We estimate about 60 GWth in potential installed capacity with LCOH values under $50/MMBtu and 100 GWth in potential capacity with LCOH values under $100/MMBtu, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Binary Complexes (DBC) as Super-Adjustable Viscosity Modifiers for Hydraulic Fracturing Fluids

In the preceding project year two, we refined three DBC formulations from a selection of over 50 different chemistries. The optimization study primarily encompassed testing for (i) reversibility extent, (ii) performance in the presence of chemical additives, (iii) adhesion and friction behavior during displacement in wellbores and pipelines, (iv) corrosion protection performance, and (v) injection performance with model fracture systems at the laboratory scale. Highly promising results obtained from all these tests signify the significant potential of DBCs in enhancing hydrocarbon recovery from unconventional reservoirs. The primary activities in the third project year included publishing experimental findings across multiple articles and conducting outreach initiatives. Throughout the year, we undertook tasks such as replicating experimental results, further optimizing various formulations and their associated experimental sets, and conducting additional tests to address missing components based on reviewer feedback and suggestions. We also explored the surfactant and friction-reduction aspects of selected formulations through drag reduction tests. In addition, we constructed an improved fracturing performance setup and performed flow injection tests. The specific DBC formulations focused on during this project period were A8/B1, A12/B5, and A10/B12. We also obtained results for additional DBC formulations and a select few commercial fracturing fluids for the purpose of comparison. Within the project's scope, we aim to enhance the experimental findings with the development of various models. The first two years focused on two key aspects: (i) the creation of a high-fidelity hydraulic fracturing model for non-Newtonian fluids to gain insights into the implementation of DBC fluids in fracking environments, and (ii) the development of a multiphase flow simulator for estimating total production, fluid saturation in the reservoir, and the creation of a fracture propagation model and kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) models for diverse applications. In the third year, we delved into the fundamental nanostructural properties of DBCs, exploring aspects such as material chemistry, pH tunability, and control of DBC formation and stability. Subsequently, in the extension year, we conducted a systematic investigation of various building blocks containing primary, secondary, and tertiary amine functional groups to understand their impact on rheological and viscoelastic properties. Furthermore, we explored a Dissipative Particle Dynamics (DPD) model to simulate self-assembly processes with precision, creating a high-fidelity representation of relevant nanostructures. The tasks performed this year with the significant results obtained have been discussed in Section 2.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of kerogen nanopores using 2D NMR relaxation and MD simulations

The characterization of kerogen nanopores is crucial for predicting the geostorage capacity and recoverability of natural gas in unconventional gas shale reservoirs. Towards this end, a powerful technique is presented which integrates 2D NMR T 1 -T 2 relaxation measurements with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of hydrocarbons confined in the nanopores of kerogen. The integrated NMR-MD technique is demonstrated using T 1 -T 2 measurements of kerogen isolates and organic-rich chalks saturated with heptane, together with MD simulations of heptane completely dissolved in a realistic kerogen model. The NMR-MD results are used to extract the swelling ratio and nanopore size distribution of kerogen as a function of depth in the reservoir. The effects of organic nanoconfinement on the T 1 relaxation dispersion and T 2 residual dipolar coupling of heptane are investigated, as well as the effect of downhole effective stress on the kerogen nanopore size as a function of depth and compaction. Potential applications in partially depleted gas shale reservoirs are discussed, including CO 2 utilization/geostorage, geostorage of green H 2 , and integration of the NMR-MD technique with thermodynamic models for predicting the competitive sorption of gas mixtures in kerogen.

Compaction↗

DOE OSTI2026

Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin (Final Technical Report)

This is the Final Technical Report for the project "Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin." Over the course of six years of collaboration between Battelle and project partners, all stated objectives of the program have been completed, including full geological characterization of the TBR trend (See companion report for Task2), laboratory and modeling experiments to determine the optimum composition and design of CO 2 -EOR operations in the TBR trend, execution of a field test of chemically-enhanced CO 2 in a TBR well, and integration of the data and learnings gathered during these efforts into a full-trend development plan. Detailed reporting on these activities, their outcomes, and implications for trend-wide development is provided in the report. This report and encompassed data will provide TBR field operators with detailed information on what worked, what did not work, and how to proceed with production optimization of their TBR assets using chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR. CO 2 -EOR is a relatively well understood and broadly implemented strategy for increasing incremental production across the oil and gas industry, but its application has been primarily focused on reservoirs with limited heterogeneity. The intention of this project was show first that the same physical mechanisms that improve recovery factors in homogeneous reservoirs (namely wettability alteration, viscosity alteration, oil swelling, and mobility control) are at play in heterogeneous reservoirs. This was proven by the project’s laboratory studies and dynamic simulations, with the potential exception of mobility control, which needs further study. The second intention was to demonstrate via direct field testing that CO 2 -EOR can work in a strongly heterogeneous reservoir. While the field test strategy implemented during this project did not succeed in producing oil, data gathered during the test sheds light on what may work for field operators who try chemically-enhanced CO 2 -EOR within their own reservoirs, significantly reducing the level of uncertainty carried by first-of-a-kind commercial efforts that could (and should) follow this test. Simultaneously, the project has identified several large-volume ethanol plants and other sources of CO 2 emissions in the region and provided a handrail that CO 2 emitters and field operators can leverage to capture, transport, and inject that CO 2 into their fields. This project has also shown that, in many cases, the economics of CO 2 -EOR in the TBR are attractive. And finally, by completing a project of this scope in the southern Michigan Basin, the project has contributed to the knowledge base and operational experience of field operators, state regulatory agencies, local service companies, and state universities, with CO 2 -EOR projects which should allow follow-on projects to proceed safely and efficiently.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection

Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.

Basin-scale↗

DOE OSTI2025

Three-Dimensional Pore Networks in Miocene Stevens Sandstone of California: Implications for CO 2 Geologic Storage

The Miocene Stevens Sandstone in the San Joaquin Basin of California is increasingly recognized as a promising candidate for CO 2 geological storage due to the enormous storage capacity, proven sealing, and existing infrastructure. In this study, computed microtomography imaging and pore network modeling were employed to investigate the influence of pore geometry and wettability on the CO 2 injectivity and residual trapping. Image analysis revealed that a significant fraction of the cement and matrix consists of microporous regions. The microporosity can substantially increase the overall pore space, yet its contribution to permeability remains modest, particularly in samples with low permeability. The intrinsic heterogeneity of turbidite reservoirs further complicates the reservoir properties among different layers. Two-phase flow simulations under varying wettability conditions (water-wet, weak water-wet, and neutral-wet) demonstrated that the CO 2 injection is predominantly controlled by macropores. CO 2 invades microporous regions only after these larger pores are filled. The presence of microporosity leads to a decrease in both initial and residual CO 2 saturations, with the magnitude of the reduction being influenced by wettability. Neutral-wet scenarios exhibit higher CO 2 mobility and thus lower residual trapping than water-wet scenarios. The results imply that heterogeneity in pore geometry and cement distribution across different layers can result in stratified CO 2 flow pathways, complicating efforts to predict injection performance. Overall, the Stevens Sandstone shows considerable promise for CO 2 geologic storage, but effective implementation will require detailed characterization of the pore structure as well as the integration of reactive fluid flow to account for potential mineral dissolution and fines migration.

fluids↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel 'Smart Microchip Proppants' Technology for Precision Diagnostics of Hydraulic Fracture Networks (Edited Final Report)

This project introduces innovative technology to improve subsurface characterization, visualization, and diagnostics of unconventional reservoirs (fossil resources). Through a collaborative effort involving the University of Kansas, UCLA, MicroSilicon Inc., and EOG Resources, the project aims to deliver precision diagnostics for hydraulic fractures using novel high-resolution imaging technology based on smart microchip proppants. Additionally, it seeks to enhance the accuracy and predictability of integrated numerical, and machine-learning modeling techniques for hydraulic fracture characterization and simulation. This groundbreaking technology addresses significant gaps in understanding unconventional and tight reservoir behavior and optimizing well-completion strategies, enabling more cost-efficient recovery of unconventional resources.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

H I Depletion Begins Well Beyond the Virial Radius: A FAST Stacking Study of 36 Galaxy Clusters to 5 × R 200

Abstract We present a stacking study of the neutral atomic hydrogen (H i ) content in and around 36 local galaxy clusters at z < 0.07, using a combination of the FAST All Sky H i survey (FASHI) and the extensive spectroscopic catalog mainly from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We employ spectral stacking techniques to probe the average H i mass and HI-to-stellar mass ratio ( M HI / M * ) for member galaxies down to stellar masses of M * ∼ 10 9 M ⊙ , spanning a projected cluster-centric distance of up to 5 R 200 . Our analysis reveals a pronounced environmental effect; both M HI and M HI / M * decrease steadily toward the cluster center, dropping by ∼0.5 dex on average from the outskirts to the core. Crucially, we find that M HI / M * of galaxies remain lower than the field galaxies even at the 5 R 200 . This provides direct, statistical evidence for substantial gas stripping and preprocessing in the cluster outskirts, likely occurring in infalling groups and large-scale filaments. By further splitting the sample by g − r color, we show that the H i deficiency persists at fixed galaxy color; even the bluest cluster members exhibit ∼0.5 dex lower M HI / M * than field galaxies of similar color, reflecting environmental effects on the cold gas reservoir prior to full optical transformation. The total H i mass within clusters and their outskirts agrees broadly with predictions from cosmological simulations. Our results underscore the critical role of the extended cluster environment in quenching galaxies by depleting their cold gas reservoirs well before they enter the dense cluster core.

Cheng, Cheng [Chinese Academy of Sciences South Am↗

DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

3D modeling of deep borehole electromagnetic measurements with energized casing source for fracture mapping at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy

Here, we present a 3D numerical modelling analysis evaluating the deployment of a borehole electromagnetic measurement tool to detect and image a stimulated zone at the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy geothermal site. As the depth to the geothermal reservoir is several kilometres and the size of the stimulated zone is limited to several 100 m, surface-based controlled-source electromagnetic measurements lack the sensitivity for detecting changes in electrical resistivity caused by the stimulation. To overcome the limitation, the study evaluates the feasibility of using a three-component borehole magnetic receiver system at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. To provide sufficient currents inside and around the enhanced geothermal reservoir, we use an injection well as an energized casing source. To efficiently simulate energizing the injection well in a realistic 3D resistivity model, we introduce a novel modelling workflow that leverages the strengths of both 3D cylindrical-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code and 3D tetrahedral-mesh-based electromagnetic modelling code. The former is particularly well-suited for modelling hollow cylindrical objects like casings, whereas the latter excels at representing more complex 3D geological structures. In this workflow, our initial step involves computing current densities along a vertical steel-cased well using a 3D cylindrical electromagnetic modelling code. Subsequently, we distribute a series of equivalent current sources along the well's trajectory within a complex 3D resistivity model. We then discretize this model using a tetrahedral mesh and simulate the borehole electromagnetic responses excited by the casing source using a 3D finite-element electromagnetic code. This multi-step approach enables us to simulate 3D casing source electromagnetic responses within a complex 3D resistivity model, without the need for explicit discretization of the well using an excessive number of fine cells. We discuss the applicability and limitations of this proposed workflow within an electromagnetic modelling scenario where an energized well is deviated, such as at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy site. Using the workflow, we demonstrate that the combined use of the energized casing source and the borehole electromagnetic receiver system offer measurable magnetic field amplitudes and sensitivity to the deep localized stimulated zone. The measurements can also distinguish between parallel-fracture anisotropic reservoirs and isotropic cases, providing valuable insights into the fracture system of the stimulated zone. Besides the magnetic field measurements, vertical electric field measurements in the open well sections are also highly sensitive to the stimulated zone and can be used as additional data for detecting and imaging the target. We can also acquire additional multiple-source data by grounding the surface electrode at various locations and repeating borehole electromagnetic measurements. This approach can increase the number of monitoring data by several factors, providing a more comprehensive dataset for analysing the deep-localized stimulated zone. The numerical analysis indicates that it is feasible to use the combination of the energized casing and downhole electromagnetic measurements in monitoring localized stimulated zone at large depths.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimization of well design and CO 2 injection strategy for risk reduction in Class VI geological carbon sequestration wells

The safety and durability of Class VI wells are critical for geological carbon sequestration (GCS). However, current GCS operations face unique challenges: unlike traditional Class II wells, Class VI CO 2 injection wells operate at rates up to 100 times higher, dramatically increasing the risk of wellbore leakage and structural compromise due to severe temperature drops and associated mechanical stresses. Despite existing guidelines on material selection, there remains a substantial gap in understanding how rapid CO 2 injection rates, low surface temperatures, and variable reservoir conditions interact to threaten long-term well integrity. This study presents a comprehensive, original workflow integrating advanced analytical and numerical models for both well flow and well integrity analysis. By systematically simulating a wide range of field-relevant scenarios—including variations in injection rate, CO 2 temperature, and reservoir pressure—this work provides the first cross-validated assessment of cooling effects on wellbore. The results reveal that extreme temperature drops, up to 60 °C, can occur under high injection rates, particularly in depleted reservoirs, significantly increasing the risk of cement failure. Building on these insights, the study proposes innovative, practical well design and operational strategies, including ductile cement formulations, pre-stressing techniques, advanced insulation coatings, and proactive management of injection rates. The safety of Class VI well extends beyond simply using CO 2 resistant materials. Cement materials should possess optimal thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical properties for effective performance. This work provides a scientific basis for optimizing Class VI well designs, with direct benefits for minimizing environmental risk, lowering operational costs, and enhancing the long-term reliability of GCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation of Multiphase Flow and Poromechanical Effects Around Injection Wells in CO 2 Storage Sites

In geological CO 2 storage operations, wellbore deformations and leakage pathways formations can occur around injection and abandoned wells subjected to high rates and long-term CO 2 injection. To guide engineering design and prevent CO 2 leakage risks, a full understanding of the underlying physics and robust numerical models is necessary to evaluate the response of underground formations in the near wellbore region and in the reservoir. In this study, a multi-scale and multi-physics open-source simulator (GEOS) is used to simulate multiphase flow and poromechanical deformations over time in three dimensions. The governing equations for mechanical deformations of the rock body and multiphase compositional fluid flow within the rock matrix are solved with a fully coupled finite element and finite volume approach. The Drucker–Prager model with friction hardening is applied to simulate elastoplastic deformation and a multiphase fluid model with power-law correlations for relative permeability is used to model the migration of CO 2 plume, which are coupled with numerical implicit scheme. Simulation results are verified against multiple analytical solutions for multiphase flow and wellbore problems, thus demonstrating the accuracy of this advanced simulator. In two engineering applications, here we highlight the impact of elastoplastic deformation and coupled modeling for assessing induced displacements and stress perturbations, which are more pronounced in the near wellbore regions. This work focuses on short-term processes in the vicinity of injection wells where stress evolutions, rock deformations and multiphase compositional flow and transport are simulated jointly to ensure wellbore stability and prevent damage. This fully coupled geomechanical model can simulate multiphase flow and any associated poromechanical effects within the CO 2 storage site and in the surrounding formations. Such a large-scale, long-term, multi-physics simulation model is useful in many ways: it can guide operational decisions for CO 2 injection, assess the containment potential and risks of a site, and analyze the wellbore stability and integrity during and after CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determining the extent of potential fugitive fluid migration from geologic carbon storage in hydrocarbon-bearing reservoirs: Insights from one-dimensional numerical modeling

Numerical modeling of Geologic Carbon Sequestration in permeable reservoirs initially containing hydrocarbons is conducted using the multi-phase, multi-component thermohydrologic simulator TOGA (TOUGH Oil, Gas, Aqueous; TOUGH stands for Transport Of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat), to determine how phase and composition of the original fluids influence the extent of the zone where upward fugitive fluid migration could potentially occur, denoted R f . The area within R f comprises regions of substantially elevated pressure and free-phase CO 2 saturation, where a breach in reservoir sealing capacity would lead to upward fugitive fluid migration. The model examines the conditions within the storage reservoir that could lead to fugitive flow, but does not model the fugitive flow itself. A one-dimensional radial model of the storage reservoir is used, and three initial phase conditions are considered: single-phase aqueous, two-phase gas-aqueous, and three-phase oil-gas-aqueous. Components that may be present are H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , C 4 H 10 , and C 10 H 22 . The most important factors controlling Rf are (1) the initial gas-phase saturation within the reservoir, and (2) the lateral extent of multi-phase initial conditions, particularly CO 2 . The composition of liquid and gas phases has a secondary effect. The impact of reservoir depth, thickness, injection rate, and hydrologic properties are also briefly examined, with thickness (or equivalently injection rate) having the biggest effect. These results can help to understand important trends in potential response of CO 2 -EOR fields being considered for dedicated CO 2 storage.

CO₂ plume migration↗