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Results for “Resilience Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Reactive transport modeling for supporting climate resilience at groundwater contamination sites

Abstract. Climate resilience is an emerging issue at contaminated sites and hazardous waste sites, since projected climate shifts (e.g., increased/decreased precipitation) and extreme events (e.g., flooding, drought) could affect ongoing remediation or closure strategies. In this study, we develop a reactive transport model (Amanzi) for radionuclides (uranium, tritium, and others) and evaluate how different scenarios under climate change will influence the contaminant plume conditions and groundwater well concentrations. We demonstrate our approach using a two-dimensional (2D) reactive transport model for the Savannah River Site F-Area, including mineral reaction and sorption processes. Different recharge scenarios are considered by perturbing the infiltration rate from the base case as well as considering cap-failure and climate projection scenarios. We also evaluate the uranium and nitrate concentration ratios between scenarios and the base case to isolate the sorption effects with changing recharge rates. The modeling results indicate that the competing effects of dilution and remobilization significantly influence pH, thus changing the sorption of uranium. At the maximum concentration on the breakthrough curve, higher aqueous uranium concentration implies that sorption is reduced with lower pH due to remobilization. To better evaluate the climate change impacts in the future, we develop the workflow to include the downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) climate projection data in the reactive transport model and evaluate how residual contamination evolves through 2100 under four climate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The integration of climate modeling data and hydrogeochemistry models enables us to quantify the climate change impacts, assess which impacts need to be planned for, and therefore assist climate resiliency efforts and help guide site management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Distributed Wind Turbine Controls Series: Part 1-Flatirons Campus Model Overview – Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL)

Wind turbines are typically deployed to provide energy, reduce diesel-fuel consumption, reduce carbon emissions, and reduce costs for energy and fuel transportation. However, in addition to solely providing energy to the power system, wind turbines contain rotating masses and inverter-based controls that can enable various reliability and resilience services through advance controls. As part of the Microgrids, Infrastructure Resilience, and Advanced Controls Launchpad (MIRACL), it is demonstrated that advanced wind turbine controls can be employed to support higher contributions of wind, and to demonstrate ways that wind can play a role in supporting grid stability in islanded or grid-connected configurations. This paper documents models of various subsystem comprising a portion of NREL's Flatirons campus that will be used in three subsequent reports to demonstrate capabilities of advanced wind turbine controls. The series of reports will detail advanced capabilities of distributed wind turbines to provide support to isolated grids, distribution grids, and microgrids. We developed models to simulate a wind turbine (600 kW), solar PV (430 kW), battery energy storage system (1 MW/1MWh), a diesel generator (2 MW) and various types of loads (critical, dynamic). The model of the subsystems in MATLAB/Simulink are validated with available data from real-world components on NREL's Flatirons Campus. These validated models can be configured for various studies including four MIRACL use cases: 1) isolated grids, 2) microgrids, and 3) behind-the-meter, and 4) front-of-the-meter wind turbine deployments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89408 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89412 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quick Talk: Resilient Communities, Maryland

Groundswell, Inc., in partnership with the Maryland Energy Administration (MEA), Ayika Solutions, the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), and the Baltimore Office of Sustainability, is advancing a vision for resilient, community-centered energy systems in Maryland. This effort aligns with Groundswell's commitment to a clean energy economy that equitably benefits all communities, closing gaps in representation, wages, and access to wealth generation, savings, and local jobs within a diverse energy supply chain. Project Vision and Objectives The project emphasizes "energy resilience," defined as a community’s capacity to anticipate, adapt to, and swiftly recover from power disruptions through inclusive planning and technical solutions. The approach centers on Resilience Hubs—designated community facilities equipped to support residents before, during, and after power-related disruptions. These hubs offer emergency resources, coordinate communications, and deliver essential services while reducing carbon emissions, ultimately enhancing residents' quality of life. Additionally, Resilience Hubs foster social connections, support disaster preparedness, and provide spaces for community programming and everyday use. The goals of Resilient Communities Maryland include: Developing a replicable framework for community energy resilience, applicable beyond Maryland. Defining community-led indicators of social impact and resilience. Establishing equitable decision-making processes in project design and implementation. Informing MEA of practical, community-based resilience strategies to shape future state initiatives. Approach Groundswell and its partners prioritize collaborative engagement with local stakeholders, ensuring that solutions are responsive to each community's unique needs. By integrating feedback from residents, local organizations, and government entities, the team has developed a holistic model for resilience that balances immediate benefits, such as improved emergency response, with long-term gains in social equity and environmental sustainability. Key Outcomes This initiative has produced valuable resources and insights, including: A Community Energy Resilience Framework: Designed to guide other communities in establishing energy resilience strategies tailored to their specific needs. Case Studies: Documenting best practices and lessons learned from pilot projects to serve as models for future resilience efforts. Community-Driven Impact Metrics: Highlighting the positive social impacts that resilience initiatives can bring, such as improved social connectedness and local decision-making power. Recommendations for MEA: Offering evidence-based insights to inform policies and funding opportunities that support resilient energy infrastructure in vulnerable communities. Next Steps Groundswell's final report will detail findings, including the potential for scaling resilience hubs across Maryland and other regions, with a focus on equitable access and community-driven outcomes. This project underscores the importance of aligning energy resilience with social equity, reinforcing community agency, and building systems that withstand and recover from future challenges effectively and sustainably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilient Microgrid Scheduling Considering Multi-Level Load Priorities

In this paper, we propose a novel resilient microgrid scheduling model considering the multi-level load priorities. The resiliency of the microgrid is guaranteed by quickly adjusting the output of committed local resources and shedding the loads with low priorities when the power supply from the main grid is interrupted. Considering the uncertainty of renewable energy resources and loads as well as exchanged power at PCC, the probability of successful islanding (PSI) is used to quantify the resiliency of electricity supply for various loads with different priorities. Then, the multi-level priorities are enforced through chance constrains. Results of numerical simulation validate the proposed resilient scheduling model. In addition, the impacts of resiliency requirement of loads with high priority on the resiliency of loads with low priority are analyzed as well.

Liu, Guodong↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Distributed Situation Awareness in Resilience-Based Design of Complex Engineered Systems

Human operators play a major role in the resilience of complex systems–while human error is one of the biggest contributors to hazardous events, operators additionally play a critical role in mitigating hazardous events. A key factor underlying this operator resilience is situation awareness–the ability of operators to understand their environment and each other to achieve desired system functions. In contrast to situation awareness-related accident models in the literature, which are largely conceptual in nature, this work proposes the use of a dynamic simulation framework to concretely model both the effects of situation awareness-related human errors and situation awareness-related hazard-mitigating properties using the distributed situation awareness theory. This work then presents specialized model constructs to enable agents’ individual perceptions of the system state and transactions with other agents (and thus distributed situation awareness) to be represented in simulation. To demonstrate this framework, it is then adapted to an aircraft taxiway case study, where it is used to model aircraft conflicts due to lack of vision and poor communications from the air traffic controller. This demonstration shows the potential of using simulation models to rigorously understand situation awareness-related human errors and thus inform the design of resilience.

Resilience Modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Distributed Situation Awareness in Resilience-based Design of Complex Systems

Human operators play a major role in the resilience of complex systems–while human error is one of the biggest contributors to hazardous events, operators additionally play a critical role in mitigating hazardous events. A key factor underlying this operator resilience is situation awareness–the ability of operators to understand their environment and each other to achieve desired system functions. In contrast to situation awareness-related accident models in the literature, which are largely conceptual in nature, this work proposes the use of a dynamic simulation framework to concretely model both the effects of situation awareness-related human errors and situation awareness-related hazard-mitigating properties using the distributed situation awareness theory. This work then presents specialized model constructs to enable agents’ individual perceptions of the system state and transactions with other agents (and thus distributed situation awareness) to be represented in simulation. To demonstrate this framework, it is then adapted to an aircraft taxiway case study, where it is used to model aircraft conflicts due to lack of vision and poor communications from the air traffic controller. This demonstration shows the potential of using simulation models to rigorously understand situation awareness-related human errors and thus inform the design of resilience.

Resilience Modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard Models for U.S. Energy Infrastructure Resilience

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense storms that pose a persistent and considerable risk to coastal communities and infrastructure in the global tropics and subtropics, including the United States (US). With known limitations associated with observations and high-resolution earth system models, synthetic TC models that capture a wide spectrum of storm possibilities have been developed to robustly quantify TC risk. Here we examine the simulation of various TC features in the North Atlantic relevant for US coastal risk in three synthetic TC models forced with ERA5 reanalysis: MIT, CHAZ and RAFT. While there is a broad agreement among these models in terms of their representation of salient TC characteristics, certain differences do exist. To connect these modeling uncertainties with energy infrastructure resilience, we apply fragility curves that link simulated TC intensities to damage probabilities, demonstrating how uncertainty in storm states may translate into that in coastal impacts. Our study indicates that acknowledging and accounting for inter-model uncertainty leads to more reliable risk assessments, strengthening science-to-action pathways for managing risks associated with TCs.

Baby John, Effy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Power system resilience through defender-attacker-defender models with uncertainty: an overview

Protecting and fortifying a power system to make it resilient is an important and hard problem to solve. The interaction between defenders and attackers, the availability of information and the complexity of power system require carefully selecting models and presenting the underlying assumptions. Trilevel defender-attacker-defender models have been developed to investigate the resilience of power systems. In this paper, we review trilevel models in power system application, with the aim of demonstrating the accessibility and applicability of these complex optimization formulations and discussing the underlying assumptions from these models. In particular, we highlight modeling choices, algorithmic details, and how operational and information uncertainty affects resilience versus the traditional complete-knowledge-based optimal solutions. We also describe other similar relevant models which lack such uncertainty and discuss insights on how to address operational, attacker, and defender related uncertainties in future research efforts.

multi-level optimization, defender-attacker-defend↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE VTO funded project DE- EE0008451, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), APS Global (APS), and XOS Trucks (XOS) pursued the development of a cyber-resilient extreme fast charging (XFC) management system. This project entitled Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) focuses on a resilient architecture for smart charging EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) device control and Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) features that can be added at the charging site depot level to increase cybersecurity. The project was split into two budget periods focused first on developing the threat model and resilient control concepts and second on testing, improving, and validating those developed resilient control algorithms and features with a focus on key vulnerabilities identified during the threat assessment portion of the project. During the first budget period of the CyberX project, the ABB led team focused on activities to identify, model, and quantitatively prioritize high-impact attack scenarios with potential cyber-physical effects while also modeling and developing concepts for a resilient control system that could securely address integration of DERs and other resources with EV charging. Development of the security focused XFC management system (XMS) was accomplished first by offline simulation using a developed XFC station or depot with 480V input level and simulating measurement inputs to monitoring and control systems in concept development. A representative distribution grid model was developed supporting an EV charging site model with BESS and 6 general EV charging models. These EV charging models allowed multiple configurations of charging level, multiple connected protection and measurement devices, and simulation function to show general compromise of EV, BESS, and protection features based on parallel threat analysis. During the second budget period, the EV site and supporting systems model was developed in more detail and converted from offline model to real-time to real-time with EV charging hardware in the loop (HIL). The resilient control architecture developed as concept in the first part of the project was further tested and validated for integration of local energy resources and XFC charging station site equipment while maintaining cybersecure operating principles. The proposed resilient architecture for smart charging and cybersecurity features consists of two main concepts developed and tested within the project. The first concept is an XFC management system (XMS) consisting of a hardware gateway, software platform, and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) or Distribution Management System integration components. The second concept is a Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) which forms a primarily software-related subsystem of the total CyberX solution focused on monitoring system measurements, estimation of measurement states, and predicting current at the utility point of interaction based on machine learning for anomaly detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applicability of Loads Estimation Techniques Using Sparse Acceleration Sensor Data to Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring

The use of structural health monitoring systems on spacecraft structures can play a crucial role in ensuring the safety, reliability, and longevity of the structure by gathering and analyzing onboard sensor data. Of specific importance is monitoring for excessive loading at critical interfaces as any off-nominal structural excitations experienced by spacecraft structures can cause early unpredicted high structural life consumption or damage. The availability and cost of flight-certified sensors along with the size of spacecraft structures and allowable payload mass drives the need for a method to estimate loads using sparsely-located sensors. Numerous approaches such as physics-based, statistical learning, and physics-enhanced statistical learning algorithms have gained popularity among structural prognostics applications. However, developing noise-robust prediction models to assess loads and structural life predictions from a sparse multi-sensor data acquisition system can be a challenging task. This paper discusses the evaluation of physics-based versus machine-learning algorithms for predicting loads and structural life at mission critical locations on the spacecraft structure using a finite element loads analysis with the application of simulated noise and noise reduction techniques. To estimate the loads from accelerations, the physics-based algorithm leverages a loads transformation matrix from a Craig-Bampton reduced finite element model. A System Equivalent Reduction Expansion Process (SEREP) and a pseudo-inverse approach are considered to expand from the onboard sensor degrees of freedom to the Craig-Bampton model degrees of freedom. The machine learning algorithm provides a data driven solution/mapping of the sensor accelerations to the loads at the mission critical locations using a high dimensionality analysis. Although these strategies produce comparable loads prediction without noise, the limitations of these strategies with incorporating simulated noise and noise reduction techniques with low signal to noise ratio signals are evaluated. The study demonstrates the immense potential of statistical learning algorithms for sparse structural prognostic models and enhancing signal denoising techniques. These findings also highlight the need for noise-resilient prognostic models and low-noise data acquisition systems onboard spacecraft structures.

Spacecraft Structural Health Monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing DER Deployment for Climate, Health, Resilience, and Energy Bill Benefits Using the REopt Model

Climate change, public health, and resilience to power outages are of critical concern to local governments, federal agencies, and the private sector, and are increasingly motivating investments in distributed energy resources (DERs). However, designing a solar-plus-storage system to co-optimize for climate, health, resilience, and energy bill benefits requires complex trade-offs. To address this need, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has integrated climate and health impacts of grid-purchased electricity and on-site fuel consumption into the publicly-available REopt web tool and API - a techno-economic model that determines the cost-optimal DER system sizes and dispatch strategy. This presentation will provide an overview of the tool's methodology, datasets, and capabilities, including costing emissions into system sizing and dispatch and setting emissions reductions targets. Results of previous work will demonstrate the use of new emissions accounting capabilities by quantifying the impact of including climate and health costs on the optimal resilient microgrid configurations for a hospital, school, and warehouse across 14 U.S. cities.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reliability and Resiliency in South Asia's Power Sector - Pathways for Research, Modeling, and Implementation

Reliability and resilience are the core principles of power system planning and operations around the world. Power systems in South Asia are transforming with increasing penetration of clean energy generation resources, emerging technologies, increasing electricity demand and electrification. At the same time, these power systems are facing challenges posed by extreme weather events and climate change. All these factors would add furthermore importance to the reliability and resilience of future power systems in South Asia. This has motivated us to better understand the country specific challenges and chalk out the pathways for research, modelling and implementation in South Asia. Our research, experience in the region and feedback from key stakeholders indicate following as the key areas where more work is needed to improve reliability and resilience of power systems in the region: Renewable energy Data for power system studies, New Tools and Studies, Resilience Planning, Resource Adequacy, Advanced RE Forecasting, Cybersecurity, Load Forecasting, and Coordinated Planning and Operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗