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DOE OSTI2024

Safety Basis Compliant Flexible Operations [Capstone Project]

Compliant nuclear operations must be weighed against the radiological risk to the worker, public, and the environment. This project set out to look at one facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) and compare the risk with the operational restrictions associated with the Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs). The hope was to identify controls that could be reduced or simplified while maintaining compliance with 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management. This would result in increasing facility operational flexibility and efficiency. Controls were identified to be simplified or eliminated based on risk. This identification was initially envisioned from the perspective of reanalysis of the accident and hazard analysis consequences. Additionally, it was envisioned that fire testing could show that the consequences of a fire are not as dramatic as analyzed. Specific facility controls were identified that cause operational inefficiencies. Based on data collection, two controls were identified for further evaluation. The first control was combustible loading within the waste storage buildings, and the second control is related to the seismic power cutoff switch. In evaluating the combustible loading control, the thought is that the fire suppression system (FSS) provides adequate protection and the combustible loading controls do not need elevation to a TSR control. The FSS, along with the Fire Protection Program, would provide protection to prevent a fire from impacting large amounts of stored waste material. The seismic switch was more of a challenge. When reviewing the facility operation, it was determined that the facility does not operate anywhere near the established material-at-risk (MAR – radioactive material) limits. By adjusting these limits, a reduced consequence could be achieved and hence, a significant risk reduction achieved. A new operating mode would be used to achieve this reduction. A reduced MAR limit was successfully used as a test case for snow removal during this project. This project expands on that trial case as related to combustible loading and the seismic power cutoff switch TSRs. This will increase the efficiency of operations with reduced TSR controls while reducing overall facility risk. This is a win-win situation for Triad National Security, LLC (Triad) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Due to schedule and budgetary constraints, not all envisioned work scope was accomplished. However, it is maintained in this report for future efforts.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Gears: The Key to Robust, Cost-Effective Hydropower Drivetrains

Based on previous demonstrated success at fabricating 5 and 10 kW scale magnetic gearbox (MGB) prototypes, Emrgy and its partners (the project team) proposed to design and construct a 100 kW scale MGB with a 30:1 gear ratio for the low-head hydro applications. The Statement of Project Objectives included tasks covering: 1) Market Applicability; 2) Technical Metrics; 3) Design (initial); 4) Electromagnetic (EM) Load and Structural Analysis; 5) Modal Analysis; 6) Sealing Design and 7) Final Design during Budget Period 1. Budget Period 2 included tasks covering: 1) Materials Procurement and Test Plan Development; 2) Assembly; and 3) Testing. The Market Applicability study (Task 1) led to a clear conclusion and recommendation toward “Low Head” technologies for maximum market share of both New Stream Reach development as well as powering Non-Powered Dams. The findings of this study also identified the opportunity for a larger scale magnetic gearbox-based drive train as a function of increased torque, as opposed to increased speed. The Technical Metrics Study (Task 2) concluded a horizontal orientation was preferred, examined potential loss mechanisms, concluded that a Halbach Array magnetic design was preferred, established a 30:1 gear ratio as optimal, and established a power rating of 100 kW as optimal. The subsequent initial and final detailed design process included electro-magnetic (EM) load and structural analysis (Task 4), a Modal analysis (for vibration) (Task 5), and a sealing design (Task 6) to assure water impermeability. The final design package (Task 7) included 729 individual parts, 117 unique part numbers, and 15 assemblies. In order to facilitate procurement, the full bill of materials was broken down into several sub-components: 1) custom magnetic parts; 2) custom machined parts; 3) custom casted parts; and 4) commercial off the shelf (COTS) parts. The casted parts were fabricated by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) via a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with Emrgy and funded by the Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO). The procurement effort (Task 8) ultimately covered three time periods based on challenges encountered in meeting the budgeted cost for the prototype. Following the first effort in the early stages of Budget Period 2 in 2017, a no-cost time extension was granted to seek alternative fabrication and procurement options. The project was re-booted in 2020 based on the new ORNL CRADA that would focus on five (5) of the more difficult and expensive parts using their advanced manufacturing expertise. Procurement efforts for the other custom machined parts resulted in quotations that still exceeded the budget by more than $\$$100k. This was, in part, also due to the concurrent COVID-19 pandemic that caused both supply chain disruptions and labor shortages. As the project continued, pricing and availability degraded further. In Q2 FY’22, it was decided to not proceed with the fabrication of the prototype (Task 9) based on budgetary limitations. Outcomes included a full and detailed design of a 100 kW magnetic gearbox and associated indented bill of materials (BOM) and CAD drawings, a full assembly instruction manual with an associated BOM for materials necessary to support assembly, the fabrication of the double Halbach magnetic array for the rotor/stator system, fabrication of five (5) sand-casted/machined parts (via CRADA with ORNL) and an initial draft of a comprehensive testing plan. The most significant non-outcome was the actual fabrication and testing of the prototype gearbox based on budget limitations. Lessons learned included the need for an Application / Design / Cost trade analysis to better elucidate the cost potential of the MGB in the projected volumes anticipated for future demand. This would better establish the efficacy of the original cost target ($\$$0.80/Watt) and/or the need for reconsideration of designs and applications. Likewise, additional consideration of the prototype nature of the gearbox – single use, short lifetime, etc. - either as a separate exercise or in place of the design process completed, to reduce the cost of the demonstration prototype device. Additionally, project continuity was cited as a significant risk based on the loss of the primary design engineering firm after Budget Period 1. A design analysis exercise was conducted at the conclusion of the project to identify potential areas for cost reduction. One concept considered was the removal of the inner ring of magnets (with associated changes in the outer ring magnets) to enable a horizontal collapse of the design. It was estimated this could reduce cost by 10-25% without impacting performance.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Component Criticality in BESS for Cybersecurity

Battery energy storage systems (BESS), inverters, and associated digital equipment are integral pieces of interdependent energy delivery systems. When considering the supply chain security of such systems, there is often a misplaced focus on the origin of energy generation and storage materials like battery cells, overlooking the more significant cyber risks that stem from digital power electronics control systems. Part of this misplaced focus is due to the relative costs of these components, with more attention given to expensive raw materials rather than the impactful digital elements themselves. The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is addressing this gap in supply chain security through a systems-of-systems approach that considers the impact various components in digital energy systems can have should misoperation occur. Therefore, INL assigns a cyber criticality score based on quantitative analysis, which enables informed prioritization of mitigations and allows operators to reduce risk in light of the prevalence of a BESS and associated systems foreign supply chain.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin - Task 2 Topical Report

This attachment A is a detailed Topical Report for Task 2 (Advanced Field Characterization and Machine Learning Based Data Integration) under the project "Chemically Enabled CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery in Multi-Porosity, Hydrothermally Altered Carbonates in the Southern Michigan Basin." The overall project activity and finding, including the field pilot testing of CO 2 injection are summarized in the companion Final Technical Report The Advanced Field Characterization and Machine Learning Based Data Integration task (Task 2) involved a systematic geologic characterization of the Trenton-Black River (TBR) play in the SMB which included the development of comprehensive datasets, advanced data analytics, risk assessment, and piggyback field characterization. These activities aimed to address the complex carbonate systems by evaluating the extent of fractures, dolomitization, facies, and reservoir properties with the primary objective of informing the static and dynamic modeling, field injection test, and providing input into the development strategy plan. The task was divided into four subtasks: • Subtask 2.1 – Data compilation, review, and analysis • Subtask 2.2 – Risk Assessment • Subtask 2.3 – Advanced Field Characterization • Subtask 2.4 – Integrated Physics-Based Machine Learning and Advanced Data Analytics

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

Limitations of traditional tools for beyond design basis external hazard PRA

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is being used increasingly by the nuclear industry for safety during normal operations as well as for the protection against external hazards. Computation of total risk in an external hazard PRA is dependent on hazard assessment, fragility assessment, and systems analysis. A systems analysis for propagation of component fragilities is conducted using event and fault trees. The event and fault trees for an actual power plant can be fairly large in size, which imposes computational challenges. Hence, certain assumptions are employed for computational efficiency. These assumptions typically represent the conditions imposed during the design basis (DB) scenario. The traditional PRA tools based on these assumptions are also widely applied to perform risk assessment in the context of beyond design basis (BDB) scenarios. However, some of these assumptions may not be valid for certain BDB scenarios. In addition, the probability of dependent failures also increases in BDB scenarios due to common cause failures (CCF) which usually results from design modifications, human errors, etc. In this manuscript, a simple and a relatively more complex illustrative examples are used to show the limitation of these assumptions in the numerical quantification of risk for the case of BDB conditions. Case studies with CCF events across multiple fault trees are also presented to illustrate the effect of these assumptions when traditional approach is used in BDB risk assessment. It is shown that the assumptions are valid for the case of DB conditions but may lead to excessively conservative risk estimates in the case of BDB conditions. Finally, a Bayesian network based top-down algorithm is proposed as an alternative tool for accurate numerical quantification of total risk in systems analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A systematic analysis and data mining of opioid-related adverse events submitted to the FAERS database

The opioid epidemic has become a serious national crisis in the United States. An indepth systematic analysis of opioid-related adverse events (AEs) can clarify the risks presented by opioid exposure, as well as the individual risk profiles of specific opioid drugs and the potential relationships among the opioids. In this study, 92 opioids were identified from the list of all Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs, annotated by RxNorm and were classified into 13 opioid groups: buprenorphine, codeine, dihydrocodeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, tapentadol, and tramadol. A total of 14,970,399 AE reports were retrieved and downloaded from the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) from 2004, Quarter 1 to 2020, Quarter 3. After data processing, Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) was then applied which identified 3317 pairs of potential risk signals within the 13 opioid groups. Based on these potential safety signals, a comparative analysis was pursued to provide a global overview of opioid-related AEs for all 13 groups of FDA-approved prescription opioids. The top 10 most reported AEs for each opioid class were then presented. Both network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were conducted to further explore the relationship between opioids. Results from the network analysis revealed a close association among fentanyl, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone, which shared more than 22 AEs. In addition, much less commonly reported AEs were shared among dihydrocodeine, meperidine, oxymorphone, and tapentadol. On the contrary, the hierarchical clustering analysis further categorized the 13 opioid classes into two groups by comparing the full profiles of presence/absence of AEs. The results of network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were not only consistent and cross-validated each other but also provided a better and deeper understanding of the associations and relationships between the 13 opioid groups with respect to their adverse effect profiles.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing fluvial flood mitigation strategies: A multi-objective approach for cost-effective and socially-aware infrastructure feasibility analysis

Effective levee planning must balance capital cost, risk reduction, and community priorities. These objectives are rarely optimized together. This study presents a feasibility phase, simulationin-the-loop framework that couples terrain-based flood modeling with a socially aware multiobjective optimizer. Flood risk is measured as Expected Annual Exposed Population (EAEP), obtained by integrating exposure over Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) nodes, mirroring the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) expected-annual formulation but with people rather than dollars. Exposure per scenario is computed by overlaying binary inundation masks with a population surface at the tract level. Distributional fairness is encoded through a Group Benefit Share (GBS) constraint that requires high-SVI tracts to receive at least a baseline share of annualized benefits. Capital cost is represented by a height-dependent unit-cost model suitable for screening. This study addresses the two-objective problem, minimize cost and expected annual exposure subject to the GBS constraint, using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) and leveraging Pareto front for feasibility phase decision making. Implemented with terrain-based flood modeling, GeoFlood, for rapid scenario evaluation, the framework is demonstrated in Southeast Texas. The results reveal clear trade-offs among cost, risk, and social benefits and identify non-dominated levee height configurations that satisfy the benefit-share floor. The contributions are a scalable decision support method that operationalizes expected annual population-based risk, embeds enforceable benefit-sharing guarantees, and uses lightweight simulation to explore large design spaces before higher fidelity design stages.

Flood mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2023

The research challenges in security and safeguards for nuclear fission batteries

This paper discusses the nuclear security and safeguards research challenges presented by the development and deployment of nuclear fission batteries. These are defined as easily transportable and deployable nuclear systems which are designed to operate either unattended or autonomously. We start by defining the current landscape of domestic and international safeguards and security and discuss how it can be affected by the introduction these new nuclear systems. We then specifically discuss the technology gaps and technologies to be developed to facilitate their practical deployment. We find that, as expected, we can leverage conclusions from existing security and safeguards studies for small modular rectors and develop bespoke target set analyses to inform security postures based on probabilistic risk assessment. We find also that specific fission battery security economic analysis tools are needed and security by design must be applied early. However, the most important finding is that these new systems will require a new comprehensive set of cyber tools covering transportation, installation, operation, maintenance security of the fission battery systems. Altogether, we find that the development of the necessary security and safeguards requirements at the design phase of such a technology will be of great benefit in the smooth deployment of this modern nuclear energy system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of decentralized preprocessing systems for fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks in the southeastern United States

This study evaluated the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries fed with blended pine residues and switchgrass in the Southeastern U.S. with different supply chain design. Previous techno-economic analyses (TEA) have focused on either blended biomass or decentralized preprocessing without investigating the impacts of varied process parameters, technology options, and real-world biomass distribution. This study fills the literature gap by modeling scenarios for different biomass blending ratios, biorefinery and preprocessing site (so-called depot) capacities, and alternative preprocessing technologies. High-resolution, real-world geospatial data were analyzed using Geographic Information Systems to facilitate supply chain design and TEA. For a decentralized system, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of biofuel was 3.92–4.33 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE), while the MFSP for the centralized biorefinery at the same capacities ranged between 3.75–4.02/GGE. Implementing a high moisture pelleting process depot rather than a conventional pelleting process lowered the MFSP by 0.03–0.17/GGE. Scenario analysis indicated decreased MFSP with increasing biorefinery capacities but not necessarily with increasing depot size. Medium-size depots (500 OMDT/day) achieved the lowest MFSP. Here, this analysis identified the optimal blending ratios for two preprocessing technologies at varied depot sizes. Counterintuitively, increasing the proportion of higher cost switchgrass reduced the MFSP for large biorefineries (>5000 ODMT/day), but increased the MFSP for small biorefineries (1000–2500 ODMT/day). Although the decentralized systems have a higher MFSP based on current analysis, it has other potential benefits such as mitigated supply chain risks and improved feedstock quality that are difficult to be quantified in this TEA.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment

This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Quantum Nature and Mass of the Neutrino. FY20 Annual Laboratory Continuation Progress Report

Over the last 100 years we have learned a much about the neutrino, but there remain interesting questions about this weakly interacting particle. In particular, at LLNL we are developing experiments to measure the mass and the quantum nature of the neutrino. The 2015 long range plan recommended tonne-scale neutrinoless double beta decay experiments as the top new project priority and this experiment will target the quantum nature of the neutrino. The LLNL team is motivated and focused on developing the best technology for this experiment which is a liquid xenon time project chamber called nEXO. On a longer time scale, LLNL is also developing technology to measure the neutrino mass with tritium decay experiments. Work on nEXO at LLNL started in 2015 with an LDRD and program development funds to develop the nEXO concept, publish sensitivity predictions, explore alternatives and risks, and to build a credible project team and this effort is on going. In addition, we received research funding from DOE-SC NP and LLNL manages pre-conceptual R&D for the nEXO collaboration a portion of which is executed at LLNL. The Project 8 effort is solely funded by LLNL LDRD, and ends this year. A second LDRD effort is focused on repurposing cyclotron radiation emission spectroscopy for eV-scale X-ray detection. This second effort, while separated from Project 8, still has scientific and technical commonalities with Project 8. The funding for this X-ray detection effort will continue for one more year. LLNL has a long history of building large projects, science projects and time projection chambers, but nEXO is in fact the first project of this scale that LLNL is prepared to lead for DOE-SC NP.We have the tools, skills, people and motivation to make nEXO a reality. The current program development dollars are used to prepare the nEXO concept for down select and CD1. These internal LLNL dollars pay for a number of things including project staff to organize the nEXO collaboration for the various reviews that lie ahead, to develop the draft plans and structure to manage the project as well as setting up an external advisory committee. The current LDRD is exploring alternatives that effect the risk profile as well as possible performance improvements. The DOE-SC NP base funding is targeted at simulation and analysis of the nEXO concept in preparation for the down select and refinement of the understanding of the detector as well as scientific effort on the large xenon test stand (LXTS) that will burn down one of the largest risks to the nEXO project. Lastly, LLNL is leading the pre-conceptual R&D effort and managing the funds for the nEXO collaboration. The results of this effort are reported elsewhere, but the scope of this executed at LLNL will be reported here and is primarily the engineering and construction of the LXTS experiment. The primary technical contribution of LLNL to the Project 8 concept is the formation and study of atomic tritium. Atomic tritium is necessary for Project 8 to reach the ultimate sensitivity. LLNL has considerable experience with tritium and is well suited for this crucial work. Although the focus of this work is strictly fundamental science, there has already been one significant spinoff to develop a new means to measure radio xenon in the air

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments Through Open-Source Tools: An Open-Source Python Framework for 2D and 3D Play Fairway Analysis

The De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments (DEEPEN) project seeks to accelerate superhot geothermal development by reducing exploration risk through advanced open-source modeling tools. This work presents a novel Python-based framework, geoPFA, for conducting 2D and 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) tailored to superhot geothermal systems. Building on previous methodologies, the framework integrates thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical simulation outputs from TReactMech, resulting in improved representation of subsurface properties that are critical to superhot resource producibility. The workflow has been applied to the Nesjavellir field in Iceland, a candidate site for the third Iceland Deep Drilling Project's superhot production scenarios. This application demonstrates the value of modular, transparent, and extensible workflows for integrating geological, geophysical, and simulation-derived datasets in high-enthalpy environments. Preliminary results indicate favorable zones consistent with known hydrothermal activity and suggest possible upflow from the Hengill volcanic system. The geoPFA library is publicly available, offering a scalable and reproducible approach to geothermal exploration across varied geological contexts.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prognostic importance of the preoperative New‐Naples prognostic score for patients with gastric cancer

Abstract Background The wide applicability of the Naples prognostic score (NPS) is still worthy of further study in gastric cancer (GC). This study aimed to construct a New‐NPS based on the differences in immunity and nutrition in patients with upper and lower gastrointestinal tumors to help obtain an individualized prediction of prognosis. Methods This study retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent radical gastrectomy from April 2014 to September 2016. The cutoff values of the preoperative neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lymphocyte‐to‐monocyte ratio (LMR), serum albumin (Alb), and total cholesterol (TC) were calculated by ROC curve analysis. ROC and t‐ROC were used to evaluate the accuracy of the prognostic markers. The Kaplan–Meier method and log‐rank test were used to analyze the overall survival probability. Univariate and multivariate analyses based on Cox risk regression were used to show the independent predictors. The nomogram was made by R studio. The predictive accuracy of nomogram was assessed using a calibration plot, concordance index (C‐index), and decision curve. Results A total of 737 patients were included in training cohort, 411 patients were included in validation cohort. ROC showed that the New‐NPS was more suitable for predicting the prognosis of GC patients. NPS = 2 indicated a poor prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that CEA ( P = 0.026), Borrmann type ( P = 0.001), pTNM ( P < 0.001), New‐NPS ( P < 0.001), and nerve infiltration ( P = 0.035) were independent risk factors for prognosis. Conclusion The New‐NPS based on the cutoff values of NLR, LMR, Alb, and TC is not only suitable for predicting prognosis but can also be combined with clinicopathological characteristics to construct a nomogram model for GC patients.

Wang, Hao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Approach and Model Used to Represent a Timeline Analysis for Security Design Enhancements

Next-generation reactors will be able to use risk to inform and performance base the licensing of many aspects of the reactor, facility, and site design, including attributes of physical security. There are several factors related to security, including site topography, reactor design, and physical protection system components, to consider when designing the physical protection system into the overall facility design and plan of operation. With the versatility of advanced reactors, especially micro reactors, methods are needed to simplify and quickly evaluate potential timelines for designing a site configuration. This report describes an approach to generate qualitative and quantitative insights using a risk-informed simulation. The modeling process is described in detail, focusing on three aspects: (1) the facility mission time (the time required to control the plant until safe), (2) the attacker timeline (the time to potential sabotage), and (3) the response timeline (the time to counter the facility attack). The modeling capabilities also are extended to include facility physical phenomena such as thermal-hydraulics and heat transfer to capture realistic representation of dynamic changes to a facility. While the plant models and examples are hypothetical and do not represent a real facility, these modeling approaches could be used for future security-by-design engineering in advanced reactors. The outputs and insights from the modeling approach may be used to modify and optimize the security posture of a facility by efficiently making modifications to the model and seeing the overall impact from the modification. Lastly, use of the approach described in this report can also provide the technical basis for a physical protection program, describing how the facility and security strategy will cope with off-normal events.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) Methodology to a Generic Research Reactor

The Proliferation Resistance Optimization Program (PRO-X) has been established by the NNSA to provide a framework for evaluating and integrating proliferation resistance into nuclear reactor system (core, fuel, and auxiliary facilities) designs that also maintain the safety and peaceful use missions of those systems. The research reactor (PRO-RR) area is the component of PRO-X that supports the program objectives by applying state-of-the-art analysis methods to research reactor systems. This report details the results of using a defined set of analytical tools to evaluate the neutronics, thermal hydraulics and proliferation risk characteristics of a set of parametric cores based on a generic 10 MW materials test reactor that uses a plate-type low enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. The analysis shows that by suitable adjustment of the core size, reflector configuration and power level, mission performance and safety margins can be maintained or improved while reducing the potential for production of special nuclear material.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Low Count and Background Radionuclides Analysis - 20488

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is often faced with the need to evaluate radionuclides at low concentrations. When site sample data are likely to be close to threshold activity concentrations of interest, then the means by which the radiochemical analysis is performed and reported is critical. This situation can occur when differentiating from zero (presence/absence) for radionuclides that do not occur naturally, close comparison with environmental background for naturally occurring radionuclides, close comparison with a risk- or dose-based threshold concentrations of interest, or even comparisons across studies. There are several analytical issues that are of concern, but the two that appear to cause incorrect decisions to be made most often involve establishing detection limits and subtracting ambient background conditions in the laboratory. These issues are not critical when radionuclide activity concentrations are large relative to thresholds of concern, but they seem to be poorly understood when it matters. When the comparisons are important and are likely to be close to a threshold of interest, then the general contract with the analytical laboratories needs to be changed so that the right or appropriate data are obtained. The concern is that important decisions are made incorrectly more often as greater scrutiny is placed on DoE's radionuclide cleanup or monitoring decisions by the public and other stakeholders. Examples are presented of problems that have been observed for different projects, both within and outside the realm of DOE and NRC remediation and radioactive waste disposal problems, and solutions are offered that should lead to better data from which important decisions need to be made. The first example is from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and involves radionuclide concentrations in soil and rock beneath LANL's Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. An initial review of the data led to a conclusion that americium and plutonium are a long way present beneath MDA G. A more thorough review of the data that accounted properly for ambient background and the detection limits that had been established led to the opposite conclusion. Another example is from the Nevada National Security Site where tritium results from one of the wells were unexpectedly high. Proper understanding and analysis of ambient background led to the conclusion that the increased concentrations were not so obvious, and that a different contract with the analytical laboratory was needed to provide more appropriate data to support a better determination. Other examples are used from regulatory review of projects in Nevada, where background levels and secular equilibrium for naturally occurring radionuclides are not established correctly because of analytical issues. The same basic issues have also been found to create difficulties analyzing historical data from the West Valley Demonstration Project. There is evidence in the data that the apparent lack of secular equilibrium where it is expected to exist is related to ambient background subtraction or other analytical issues. A final example is presented for analysis of Tc-99 in samples of depleted uranium. In this case, two different studies that were performed only three months apart provide quite different results. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) established the data quality objectives (DQO) process in the mid-1980's to establish decision performance criteria for data collection. EPA guidance (EPA G-4, for example) clearly distinguishes between DQOs and measurement performance objectives (MQOs) that should be addressed for laboratory analysis of samples. The language of DQOs and MQOs has become confused over time it seems, and the subsequent effects seem to include a lack of attention to decision performance and a routine approach to measurement quality. In order to better address radionuclide sample analysis when the concentrations are close to thresholds of concern, which might be zero for some radionuclides, background for others, and risk-based thresholds for yet others, it is important that routine laboratory analysis methods are adjusted, and that the project team and the laboratory work closely together to ensure that the data meets the MQO requirements of laboratory analysis and reporting of results, and that the MQOs effectively support project-specific DQOs. This basic approach will be applied in Los Alamos in the coming year to the collection of moisture data from underneath MDA T that will be analyzed for americium and neptunium isotopes. Proper understanding of the radiochemistry methods and reporting, and of appropriate statistical methods is critical to the success of such projects, ensuring that the right decisions are made. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ARCADE Technical Pathway and Industry Impact

The Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) simplifies the evaluation and assessment of robustness factor and cyber resilience that support secure-by-design for advanced reactor nuclear power plants. In this manner, ARCADE supports risk-informed performance based (RIPB) evaluations of cybersecurity through its integration of plant physics with high-fidelity emulations of control systems. This cross domain approach enables comprehensive analysis of control system sensitivities, cyber-attack scenarios, and their consequences. ARCADE has been custom developed to meet the demands identified in Tier 1 of the Tiered Cyber Analysis (TCA) as outlined in NRC Draft Regulation Guide (RG) 5.96, which provides a RIPB cybersecurity approach for new reactors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗