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At least 91 records · Page 5

Real-time operational planning for the U.S. air traffic system

This paper describes an integrated planning model for the U.S. air traffic system. The approach incorporates the dual objectives of monitoring collision risk while minimizing transportation costs. Specialized solution algorithms exploit the underlying structure of the model - especially for large-scale examples. The proposed formulation is tested with real-world data for the Indianapolis control sector. Additional experiments with a CRAY X-MP/24 supercomputer show that a full-scale model can be solved under real time conditions. Despite these advances, additional work is required in developing a practical system. Suggestions are made for combining advances in computer graphics and mathematical modeling.

Mulvey, John M.

Using ADOPT Algorithm and Operational Data to Discover Precursors to Aviation Adverse Events

The US National Airspace System (NAS) is making its transition to the NextGen system and assuring safety is one of the top priorities in NextGen. At present, safety is managed reactively (correct after occurrence of an unsafe event). While this strategy works for current operations, it may soon become ineffective for future airspace designs and high density operations. There is a need for proactive management of safety risks by identifying hidden and "unknown" risks and evaluating the impacts on future operations. To this end, NASA Ames has developed data mining algorithms that finds anomalies and precursors (high-risk states) to safety issues in the NAS. In this paper, we describe a recently developed algorithm called ADOPT that analyzes large volumes of data and automatically identifies precursors from real world data. Precursors help in detecting safety risks early so that the operator can mitigate the risk in time. In addition, precursors also help identify causal factors and help predict the safety incident. The ADOPT algorithm scales well to large data sets and to multidimensional time series, reduce analyst time significantly, quantify multiple safety risks giving a holistic view of safety among other benefits. This paper details the algorithm and includes several case studies to demonstrate its application to discover the "known" and "unknown" safety precursors in aviation operation.

aviation safet

Operational Implementation of a Pc Uncertainty Construct for Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Earlier this year the NASA Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis (CARA) project presented the theoretical and algorithmic aspects of a method to include the uncertainties in the calculation inputs when computing the probability of collision (Pc) between two space objects, principally uncertainties in the covariances and the hard-body radius. The output of this calculation approach is to produce rather than a single Pc value an entire probability density function that will represent the range of possible Pc values given the uncertainties in the inputs and bring CA risk analysis methodologies more in line with modern risk management theory. The present study provides results from the exercise of this method against an extended dataset of satellite conjunctions in order to determine the effect of its use on the evaluation of conjunction assessment (CA) event risk posture. The effects are found to be considerable: a good number of events are downgraded from or upgraded to a serious risk designation on the basis of consideration of the Pc uncertainty. The findings counsel the integration of the developed methods into NASA CA operations.

assessment

Airborne Spacing for Terminal Arrival Routes (ASTAR) Proof-of-Concept Flight Test

The Airborne Spacing for Terminal Arrival Routes (ASTAR) Flight Test was conducted by the NASA Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration – 1 (ATD- 1) project to demonstrate the use of NASA’s ASTAR algorithm beyond a simulated environment and assess the operational risks of performing a multi-aircraft flight test of Flight-deck Interval Management (FIM). Utilizing contemporary tools of the Federal Aviation Administration’s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) such as ADS-B, the ASTAR algorithm calculated speeds that the flight crew flew to achieve a precise spacing interval behind another aircraft at the final approach fix. Airspeed commands issued by the algorithm were flown by the flight crew of the FIM-equipped aircraft to achieve or maintain an assigned spacing goal from a target vehicle. The ASTAR algorithm was integrated with the Boeing supplied B-787 ecoDemonstrator aircraft, and five flight trials were conducted as a joint effort between NASA and Boeing on December 12, 2014. Initial results indicated arrival times within several seconds of accuracy of the planned termination point between two aircraft performing FIM in a real world environment. This flight test opened the way for the much more expansive ATD-1 Avionics Phase II flight test which occurred in early 2017. The flight trials under Phase II preceded further testing by the community in preparation for inclusion of the Interval Management concept as a part of the NextGen environment.

Roper, Roy D.

Mass and Volume Optimization of Space Flight Medical Kits

Resource allocation is a critical aspect of space mission planning. All resources, including medical resources, are subject to a number of mission constraints such a maximum mass and volume. However, unlike many resources, there is often limited understanding in how to optimize medical resources for a mission. The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulates outcomes and describes the impact of medical events in terms of lost crew time, medical resource usage, and the potential for medically required evacuation. Previously published work describes an approach that uses the IMM to generate optimized medical kits that maximize benefit to the crew subject to mass and volume constraints. We improve upon the results obtained previously and extend our approach to minimize mass and volume while meeting some benefit threshold. METHODS We frame the medical kit optimization problem as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing dynamic programming. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the medical kit mass and volume for a specified likelihood of evacuation or Crew Health Index (CHI) threshold. The algorithm was expanded to generate medical kits that maximize likelihood of evacuation or CHI subject to mass and volume constraints. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS In maximizing benefit to crew health subject to certain constraints, our algorithm generates medical kits that more closely resemble the unlimited-resource scenario than previous approaches which leverage medical risk information generated by the IMM. Our work here demonstrates that this algorithm provides an efficient and effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions and provides an effective means of addressing tradeoffs in medical resource allocations and crew mission success parameters.

Monte Carlo Method

A Risk Assessment Architecture for Enhanced Engine Operation

On very rare occasions, in-flight emergencies have occurred that required the pilot to utilize the aircraft's capabilities to the fullest extent possible, sometimes using actuators in ways for which they were not intended. For instance, when flight control has been lost due to damage to the hydraulic systems, pilots have had to use engine thrust to maneuver the plane to the ground and in for a landing. To assist the pilot in these situations, research is being performed to enhance the engine operation by making it more responsive or able to generate more thrust. Enabled by modification of the propulsion control, enhanced engine operation can increase the probability of a safe landing during an inflight emergency. However, enhanced engine operation introduces risk as the nominal control limits, such as those on shaft speed, temperature, and acceleration, are exceeded. Therefore, an on-line tool for quantifying this risk must be developed to ensure that the use of an enhanced control mode does not actually increase the overall danger to the aircraft. This paper describes an architecture for the implementation of this tool. It describes the type of data and algorithms required and the information flow, and how the risk based on engine component lifing and operability for enhanced operation is determined.

Litt, Jonathan S.

Implementation of Satellite Formation Flight Algorithms Using SPHERES Aboard the International Space Station

The MIT's Space Systems Laboratory developed the Synchronized Position Hold Engage and Reorient Experimental Satellites (SPHERES) as a risk-tolerant spaceborne facility to develop and mature control, estimation, and autonomy algorithms for distributed satellite systems for applications such as satellite formation flight. Tests performed study interferometric mission-type formation flight maneuvers in deep space. These tests consist of having the satellites trace a coordinated trajectory under tight control that would allow simulated apertures to constructively interfere observed light and measure the resulting increase in angular resolution. This paper focuses on formation initialization (establishment of a formation using limited field of view relative sensors), formation coordination (synchronization of the different satellite s motion) and fuel-balancing among the different satellites.

Mandy, Christophe P.

Cassini Information Management System in Distributed Operations Collaboration and Cassini Science Planning

Launched on October 15, 1997, the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft began its ambitious journey to the Saturnian system with a complex suite of 12 scientific instruments, and another 6 instruments aboard the European Space Agencies Huygens Probe. Over the next 6 1/2 years, Cassini would continue its relatively simplistic cruise phase operations, flying past Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. However, following Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI), Cassini would become involved in a complex series of tasks that required detailed resource management, distributed operations collaboration, and a data base for capturing science objectives. Collectively, these needs were met through a web-based software tool designed to help with the Cassini uplink process and ultimately used to generate more robust sequences for spacecraft operations. In 2001, in conjunction with the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and later Venustar Software and Engineering Inc., the Cassini Information Management System (CIMS) was released which enabled the Cassini spacecraft and science planning teams to perform complex information management and team collaboration between scientists and engineers in 17 countries. Originally tailored to help manage the science planning uplink process, CIMS has been actively evolving since its inception to meet the changing and growing needs of the Cassini uplink team and effectively reduce mission risk through a series of resource management validation algorithms. These algorithms have been implemented in the web-based software tool to identify potential sequence conflicts early in the science planning process. CIMS mitigates these sequence conflicts through identification of timing incongruities, pointing inconsistencies, flight rule violations, data volume issues, and by assisting in Deep Space Network (DSN) coverage analysis. In preparation for extended mission operations, CIMS has also evolved further to assist in the planning and coordination of the dual playback redundancy of highvalue data from targets such as Titan and Enceladus. This paper will outline the critical role that CIMS has played for Cassini in the distributed ops paradigm throughout operations. This paper will also examine the evolution that CIMS has undergone in the face of new science discoveries and fluctuating operational needs. And finally, this paper will conclude with theoretical adaptation of CIMS for other projects and the potential savings in cost and risk reduction that could potentially be tapped into by future missions.

Equils, Douglas J.

Mapping Canopy Damage from Understory Fires in Amazon Forests Using Annual Time Series of Landsat and MODIS Data

Understory fires in Amazon forests alter forest structure, species composition, and the likelihood of future disturbance. The annual extent of fire-damaged forest in Amazonia remains uncertain due to difficulties in separating burning from other types of forest damage in satellite data. We developed a new approach, the Burn Damage and Recovery (BDR) algorithm, to identify fire-related canopy damages using spatial and spectral information from multi-year time series of satellite data. The BDR approach identifies understory fires in intact and logged Amazon forests based on the reduction and recovery of live canopy cover in the years following fire damages and the size and shape of individual understory burn scars. The BDR algorithm was applied to time series of Landsat (1997-2004) and MODIS (2000-2005) data covering one Landsat scene (path/row 226/068) in southern Amazonia and the results were compared to field observations, image-derived burn scars, and independent data on selective logging and deforestation. Landsat resolution was essential for detection of burn scars less than 50 ha, yet these small burns contributed only 12% of all burned forest detected during 1997-2002. MODIS data were suitable for mapping medium (50-500 ha) and large (greater than 500 ha) burn scars that accounted for the majority of all fire-damaged forest in this study. Therefore, moderate resolution satellite data may be suitable to provide estimates of the extent of fire-damaged Amazon forest at a regional scale. In the study region, Landsat-based understory fire damages in 1999 (1508 square kilometers) were an order of magnitude higher than during the 1997-1998 El Nino event (124 square kilometers and 39 square kilometers, respectively), suggesting a different link between climate and understory fires than previously reported for other Amazon regions. The results in this study illustrate the potential to address critical questions concerning climate and fire risk in Amazon forests by applying the BDR algorithm over larger areas and longer image time series.

Morton, Douglas C.

Signal-Processing Algorithm Development for the ACLAIM Sensor

Methods for further minimizing the risk by making use of previous lidar observations were investigated. EOFs are likely to play an important role in these methods, and a procedure for extracting EOFs from data has been implemented, The new processing methods involving EOFs could range from extrapolation, as discussed, to more complicated statistical procedures for maintaining low unstart risk.

vonLaven, Scott

A Simple, Velocity Dependent, Collision Probability Algorithm for Small Combined Hard Body Radii Close Approach Events

Over the last few years progress has been made in the velocity dependent collision probability problem. Recent progress in this problem has been approached via integration of the probability flux into the surface of the combined hard body object. The algorithm presented uses the surface flux approach and is designed to compute the collision probability rate between two objects given their time dependent states and state error covariance matrices. With regards to the computation of the collision probability (Pc) rate, two major differences exist between the development of this algorithm and the usual Pc algorithm. First, the shape of the at-risk volume is assumed to be a cube rather than a sphere. The size of the cube is chosen so that it circumscribes the usual hard body sphere chosen for the spherical Pc problem. This will result in half the length of a side of the cube being equal to the hard body radius (HBR) of the sphere. Second, it is assumed that the HBR of the cube is much smaller than the smallest combined position uncertainty (σ(sub min) > 5*HBR) at each time point of evaluation. This is necessary as the actual collision probability calculation is based on a first order, small variable expansion in the position components of the Gaussian probability density function. This leads to the collision probability rate being to second order in the combined HBR. The collision probability rate is in a concise, closed form containing exponential and error functions.

Frisbee, Joe

Modernizing Cassini: Approaching Agile After a Decade at Saturn

Software for a long-duration NASA flagship planetary mission faces a combination of challenges – maintaining legacy systems, complex modeling and algorithmic systems, limited funding, very low tolerance for risk, and heavy process requirements. Our team within the Cassini Mission to Saturn has faced these obstacles while applying Agile principles, and we have learned some lessons along the way.

Connell, Andrea

Extracting Lessons of Human Performance and Resilience Management from a Study of Weather-Related Safety Risks and Incidents Reported to NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS)

We present a study of weather-related incident reports submitted to NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) by air carrier pilots and air traffic controllers in the US. Using specific examples, we examine the weather-related risks reported and the relevant aspects of human performance and resilience management exhibited during these incidents. We describe our methods of lesson extraction to maximize learning, including the use of advance algorithms, and we conclude with a review of the weather-related risks encountered and the resilient practices employed to mitigate them.

resilience

Assessment of NPP VIIRS Ocean Color Data Products: Hope and Risk

For several years, the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) NPP VIIRS Ocean Science Team (VOST) provided substantial scientific input to the NPP project regarding the use of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to create science quality ocean color data products. This work has culminated into an assessment of the NPP project and the VIIRS instrument's capability to produce science quality Ocean Color data products. The VOST concluded that many characteristics were similar to earlier instruments, including SeaWiFS or MODIS Aqua. Though instrument performance and calibration risks do exist, it was concluded that programmatic and algorithm issues dominate concerns. Keywords: NPP, VIIRS, Ocean Color, satellite remote sensing, climate data record.

Turpie, Kevin R.

Modeling in the State Flow Environment to Support Launch Vehicle Verification Testing for Mission and Fault Management Algorithms in the NASA Space Launch System

Analysis methods and testing processes are essential activities in the engineering development and verification of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS). Central to mission success is reliable verification of the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the SLS launch vehicle (LV) flight software. This is particularly difficult because M&FM algorithms integrate and operate LV subsystems, which consist of diverse forms of hardware and software themselves, with equally diverse integration from the engineering disciplines of LV subsystems. M&FM operation of SLS requires a changing mix of LV automation. During pre-launch the LV is primarily operated by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) organization with some LV automation of time-critical functions, and much more autonomous LV operations during ascent that have crucial interactions with the Orion crew capsule, its astronauts, and with mission controllers at the Johnson Space Center. M&FM algorithms must perform all nominal mission commanding via the flight computer to control LV states from pre-launch through disposal and also address failure conditions by initiating autonomous or commanded aborts (crew capsule escape from the failing LV), redundancy management of failing subsystems and components, and safing actions to reduce or prevent threats to ground systems and crew. To address the criticality of the verification testing of these algorithms, the NASA M&FM team has utilized the State Flow environment6 (SFE) with its existing Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) platform which also hosts vendor-supplied physics-based LV subsystem models. The human-derived M&FM algorithms are designed and vetted in Integrated Development Teams composed of design and development disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), liquid engines, and the astronaut crew office. Since the algorithms are realized using model-based engineering (MBE) methods from a hybrid of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), SFE methods are a natural fit to provide an in depth analysis of the interactive behavior of these algorithms with the SLS LV subsystem models. For this, the M&FM algorithms and the SLS LV subsystem models are modeled using constructs provided by Matlab which also enables modeling of the accompanying interfaces providing greater flexibility for integrated testing and analysis, which helps forecast expected behavior in forward VMET integrated testing activities. In VMET, the M&FM algorithms are prototyped and implemented using the same C++ programming language and similar state machine architectural concepts used by the FSW group. Due to the interactive complexity of the algorithms, VMET testing thus far has verified all the individual M&FM subsystem algorithms with select subsystem vendor models but is steadily progressing to assessing the interactive behavior of these algorithms with LV subsystems, as represented by subsystem models. The novel SFE applications has proven to be useful for quick look analysis into early integrated system behavior and assessment of the M&FM algorithms with the modeled LV subsystems. This early MBE analysis generates vital insight into the integrated system behaviors, algorithm sensitivities, design issues, and has aided in the debugging of the M&FM algorithms well before full testing can begin in more expensive, higher fidelity but more arduous environments such as VMET, FSW testing, and the Systems Integration Lab7 (SIL). SFE has exhibited both expected and unexpected behaviors in nominal and off nominal test cases prior to full VMET testing. In many findings, these behavioral characteristics were used to correct the M&FM algorithms, enable better test coverage, and develop more effective test cases for each of the LV subsystems. This has improved the fidelity of testing and planning for the next generation of M&FM algorithms as the SLS program evolves from non-crewed to crewed flight, impacting subsystem configurations and the M&FM algorithms that control them. SFE analysis has improved robustness and reliability of the M&FM algorithms by revealing implementation errors and documentation inconsistencies. It is also improving planning efficiency for future VMET testing of the M&FM algorithms hosted in the LV flight computers, further reducing risk for the SLS launch infrastructure, the SLS LV, and most importantly the crew.

Trevino, Luis

Joint Chance-Constrained Dynamic Programming

This paper presents a novel dynamic programming algorithm with a joint chance constraint, which explicitly bounds the risk of failure in order to maintain the state within a specified feasible region. A joint chance constraint cannot be handled by existing constrained dynamic programming approaches since their application is limited to constraints in the same form as the cost function, that is, an expectation over a sum of one-stage costs. We overcome this challenge by reformulating the joint chance constraint into a constraint on an expectation over a sum of indicator functions, which can be incorporated into the cost function by dualizing the optimization problem. As a result, the primal variables can be optimized by a standard dynamic programming, while the dual variable is optimized by a root-finding algorithm that converges exponentially. Error bounds on the primal and dual objective values are rigorously derived. We demonstrate the algorithm on a path planning problem, as well as an optimal control problem for Mars entry, descent and landing. The simulations are conducted using a real terrain data of Mars, with four million discrete states at each time step.

Ono, Masahiro

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

emergency operation

Application and Evaluation of Control Modes for Risk-Based Engine Performance Enhancements

The engine control system for civil transport aircraft imposes operational limits on the propulsion system to ensure compliance with safety standards. However, during certain emergency situations, aircraft survivability may benefit from engine performance beyond its normal limits despite the increased risk of failure. Accordingly, control modes were developed to improve the maximum thrust output and responsiveness of a generic high-bypass turbofan engine. The algorithms were designed such that the enhanced performance would always constitute an elevation in failure risk to a consistent predefined likelihood. This paper presents an application of these risk-based control modes to a combined engine/aircraft model. Through computer and piloted simulation tests, the aim is to present a notional implementation of these modes, evaluate their effects on a generic airframe, and demonstrate their usefulness during emergency flight situations. Results show that minimal control effort is required to compensate for the changes in flight dynamics due to control mode activation. The benefits gained from enhanced engine performance for various runway incursion scenarios are investigated. Finally, the control modes are shown to protect against potential instabilities during propulsion-only flight where all aircraft control surfaces are inoperable.

aircraft engine performance