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DOE OSTI2025

Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers

Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.

Flood Simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Indicators of carbon alteration (ICAs) suggest patterns in reservoir methane emissions

Reservoir operations influence emissions via multiple causal pathways. In this paper, we quantify indicators of carbon alteration (ICAs) focused on methane. ICAs were chosen to reflect the potential for methane emission along four causal pathways: 1) water column mixing, 2) wet-dry cycles in sediment, 3) sediment redistribution, and 4) vegetation. We developed algorithms to calculate ICAs for three reservoirs along a longitudinal gradient in the Tennessee River basin of the southeast US. The ICAs revealed interesting longitudinal patterns. Indicators of both methane production and destruction increased downstream. The potential for ebullitive methane emissions driven by sub-daily water level fluctuations and emissions mediated by vegetation were higher in downstream mainstem reservoirs than in the upstream tributary reservoir. Along the remaining two pathways, longitudinal patterns were equivocal (sediment pathway) or suggested decreased emissions downstream (water-column mixing). We also observed seasonal patterns and, by combining ICAs, inferred times when ramping could be achieved with lower risk of emissions. The ICAs demonstrated here are the first step in quantifying mechanistic relationships between reservoir operation and methane emissions. In future, they may lead to improved operations in reservoir cascades and regional-scale estimates of emissions that account for differences among reservoirs.

Greenhouse gases↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based Simulation Framework for Power Resilience Estimation and Enhancement

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events poses significant risks to power distribution systems, leading to widespread outages and severe economic and social consequences. This paper presents a novel simulation framework for assessing and enhancing the resilience of power distribution networks under such conditions. Resilience is estimated through Monte Carlo simulations, which simulate extreme weather scenarios and evaluate the impact on infrastructure fragility. Due to the proprietary nature of power network topology, a distribution network is synthesized using publicly available data. To generate the weather scenarios, an extreme weather generation method is developed. To enhance resilience, renewable resources such as solar panels and energy storage systems (batteries in this study) are incorporated. A customized Genetic Algorithm is proposed to determine the optimal locations and capacities for solar panels and battery installations, maximizing resilience while balancing cost constraints. Experiment results demonstrate that on a large-scale synthetic distribution network with more than 300,000 nodes and 300,000 edges, the proposed framework can efficiently evaluate the resilience, and enhance the resilience through the installations of distributed energy resources (DERs), providing utilities with valuable insights for community-level power system resilience estimation and enhancement.

Wang, Xuesong [Wayne State Univ., Detroit, MI (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗
DOE OSTI2025

DOME: Directional medical embedding vectors from Electronic Health Records

Motivation: The increasing availability of Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems has created enormous potential for translational research. Recent developments in representation learning techniques have led to effective large-scale representations of EHR concepts along with knowledge graphs that empower downstream EHR studies. However, most existing methods require training with patient-level data, limiting their abilities to expand the training with multi-institutional EHR data. On the other hand, scalable approaches that only require summary-level data do not incorporate temporal dependencies between concepts. Methods: We introduce a DirectiOnal Medical Embedding (DOME) algorithm to encode temporally directional relationships between medical concepts, using summary-level EHR data. Specifically, DOME first aggregates patient-level EHR data into an asymmetric co-occurrence matrix. Then it computes two Positive Pointwise Mutual Information (PPMI) matrices to correspondingly encode the pairwise prior and posterior dependencies between medical concepts. Following that, a joint matrix factorization is performed on the two PPMI matrices, which results in three vectors for each concept: a semantic embedding and two directional context embeddings. They collectively provide a comprehensive depiction of the temporal relationship between EHR concepts. Results: We highlight the advantages and translational potential of DOME through three sets of validation studies. First, DOME consistently improves existing direction-agnostic embedding vectors for disease risk prediction in several diseases, for example achieving a relative gain of 5.5% in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for lung cancer. Second, DOME excels in directional drug-disease relationship inference by successfully differentiating between drug side effects and indications, correspondingly achieving relative AUROC gain over the state-of-the-art methods by 10.8% and 6.6%. Finally, DOME effectively constructs directional knowledge graphs, which distinguish disease risk factors from comorbidities, thereby revealing disease progression trajectories. The source codes are provided at https://github.com/celehs/Directional-EHRembedding.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

LandScan Global 2023: Silver Edition

For a quarter of a century, the LandScan Global (LSG) project has annually released a global, high-resolution gridded population dataset representing the ambient or unwarned population at a 30 arcsecond resolution. LSG supports a range of applications such as emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security for understanding populations at risk. The 2023 release of LSG, the LandScan Silver Edition, represents a major methodological leap forward while also leveraging previous knowledge—the previous year was the baseline for the current annual update carrying forward valuable knowledge of the built environment for the past quarter century—to train the machine learning models. Compared with annual releases over the past 24years, multiple advancements were made to different aspects of the methodology to achieve reproducibility, transparency, and consistent global propagation of solutions to modeling or population distribution issues identified during the review process. These novel changes include incorporation of the latest available geospatial inputs across the globe, machine learning models instead of manual modifications, population feature importance analysis, open-source solutions vs. proprietary software, generation of multiple global versions, analytic validations, and human-in-the-loop revisions to produce the final version. Additionally, algorithms—such as anomaly detection—were introduced to quickly identify areas of focus to develop a new and robust systematic review. Significant changes in modeled population distributions were observed between the 2022 and 2023 releases, largely attributable to improvements in data and methods and discussed thoroughly within this report. In summation, the LandScan Silver Edition leverages the best of the past quarter century of LSG legacy knowledge and continues a tradition of applying cutting-edge enhancements to serve as a new benchmark for accurate, actionable gridded population data

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗
DOE OSTI2025

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗
DOE OSTI2026

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations

IM3 Projected US Data Center Locations This dataset contains model projections of new data center facilities in the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2035 using the CERF – Data Centers model. Data center locations are modeled across four data center electricity demand growth scenarios (low, moderate, high, higher) and five market gravity scenarios (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%). Projected locations are intended to be regional representations of feasible siting locations in the future to assess potential grid and water stress impacts. The data center load growth scenarios correspond with the rates outlined in EPRI (2024) and include 3.71%, 5%, 10%, and 15% annual growth of electricity demand for data centers from 2023 values in 37 states across the CONUS. Market gravity scenarios correspond to the relative importance of proximity to data center markets or high population areas compared to locational cost in the siting algorithm. 0% market gravity means that siting decisions were entirely determined by the locational cost in each feasible location. 100% market gravity means that only market proximity was considered when siting. Other scenarios have weight placed on both components where total weight always equals 100%. Locational cost is dependent on facility cooling type and corresponding electricity cost, taxes, and other factors. Facility cooling type is spatially determined where high water stress and/or areas with high summer wet bulb temperatures are assumed to operate with mechanical cooling for a higher fraction of the year rather than evaporative cooling. Feasible data center siting areas are based on geospatial suitability raster data developed with open-source information. The following areas are excluded from siting: Areas within 300 m of a federal airport runway or within an airport area boundary Waterbodies Areas with slope >16% Areas susceptible to sinkholes High coastal or inland flood risk areas Local, state, and federal parks, leisure areas, and cemeteries Areas >2 km away from electric substations Areas >5 km away from a municipal water supplier service area Areas >2 km away from high-speed fiber provider service territory USGS Protected Areas Database of the United States (PAD-US) GAP status 1, 2, or 3 areas US National Parks Wetlands USFWS critical habitats BIA land areas Railroads, major roadways, and minor roadways Military areas and training grounds NLCD developed lands Areas >0.8 km (0.5 miles) from NLCD developed lands Because we use open-source information, proprietary information that can influence siting decisions such as individual tax agreements with cities, detailed fiber line connectivity, electric grid power capacity agreements, and others, are not currently accounted for in the modeling process. Using specific building locations and footprints in the dataset for local planning purposes is not advised. Technical Information Geospatial data is provided in geojson format using the Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) coordinate reference system. The datasets contain the following parameters: id - unique identification number within given scenario file growth_scenario – data center demand growth scenario market_gravity_weight – market gravity weight scenario (%) region – name of region (i.e., US State) total_cost_million_usd – locational siting cost ($million) campus_size_square_ft – total land acquired for data center facility (square ft) data_center_it_power_mw – IT power of data center facility (MW) mechanical_cooling_frac – fraction of year when data center uses mechanical cooling system water_cooling_frac– fraction of year when data center uses evaporative cooling system cooling_energy_demand_mwh – total annual facility energy demand for cooling (MWh) cooling_water_demand_mgy – total annual facility water demand for cooling (MG) cooling_water_consumption_mgy – total annual facility water consumed (MG) normalized_locational_cost – normalized total locational cost score for location normalized_gravity_score – normalized market gravity score for location weighted_siting_score – total weighted siting score of locational cost and gravity score geometry – polygon geometry of facility Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program. License This data is made available under a CCBY4.0 License Disclaimer This material was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor the United States Department of Energy, nor the Contractor, nor any or their employees, nor any jurisdiction or organization that has cooperated in the development of these materials, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness or any information, apparatus, product, software, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORYoperated byBATTELLEfor theUNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF ENERGYunder Contract DE-AC05-76RL01830

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗
DOE OSTI2025

An interregional optimization approach for time series aggregation in continent-scale electricity system models

Modeling electric power systems with high shares of weather-dependent resources requires tradeoffs between temporal, spatial, and operational resolution. Many studies perform time series aggregation using clustering algorithms to reduce the temporal dimension, but when modeling continent-scale electricity systems that are large enough to contain multiple independent weather systems, this approach requires large numbers of representative periods to minimize errors in regional wind and solar capacity factors. Here, a new optimization-based approach for representative period selection and weighting is introduced that minimizes regional errors in average renewable capacity factors and electricity demand. The method delivers higher regional fidelity with fewer representative periods than alternative clustering methods when applied to wind, solar, and demand profiles for the contiguous United States. When representative periods are selected from multiple weather years, the optimized method reproduces regional averages with lower error than a complete 365-day time series from any single weather year. The method identifies only representative (as opposed to outlying) periods but can be combined with an iterative "stress period" identification approach to guide efficient decision-making considering both average and high-risk weather conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-powered topic modeling: comparing LDA and BERTopic in analyzing opioid-related cardiovascular risks in women

Topic modeling is a crucial technique in natural language processing (NLP), enabling the extraction of latent themes from large text corpora. Traditional topic modeling, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), faces limitations in capturing the semantic relationships in the text document although it has been widely applied in text mining. BERTopic, created in 2022, leveraged advances in deep learning and can capture the contextual relationships between words. In this work, we integrated Artificial Intelligence (AI) modules to LDA and BERTopic and provided a comprehensive comparison on the analysis of prescription opioid-related cardiovascular risks in women. Opioid use can increase the risk of cardiovascular problems in women such as arrhythmia, hypotension etc. 1,837 abstracts were retrieved and downloaded from PubMed as of April 2024 using three Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) words: “opioid,” “cardiovascular,” and “women.” Machine Learning of Language Toolkit (MALLET) was employed for the implementation of LDA. BioBERT was used for document embedding in BERTopic. Eighteen was selected as the optimal topic number for MALLET and 23 for BERTopic. ChatGPT-4-Turbo was integrated to interpret and compare the results. The short descriptions created by ChatGPT for each topic from LDA and BERTopic were highly correlated, and the performance accuracies of LDA and BERTopic were similar as determined by expert manual reviews of the abstracts grouped by their predominant topics. The results of the t-SNE (t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) plots showed that the clusters created from BERTopic were more compact and well-separated, representing improved coherence and distinctiveness between the topics. Our findings indicated that AI algorithms could augment both traditional and contemporary topic modeling techniques. In addition, BERTopic has the connection port for ChatGPT-4-Turbo or other large language models in its algorithm for automatic interpretation, while with LDA interpretation must be manually, and needs special procedures for data pre-processing and stop words exclusion. Therefore, while LDA remains valuable for large-scale text analysis with resource constraints, AI-assisted BERTopic offers significant advantages in providing the enhanced interpretability and the improved semantic coherence for extracting valuable insights from textual data.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2025

Networked Microgrid Topology Reconfiguration to Promote Fairness in Proactive Load Shedding

Increasing occurrences of natural disasters and grid emergency events consistently challenge the safe and reliable operations of power systems. During such emergency situations, system operators may proactively shed load to mitigate risks. However, uncoordinated implementation of load shedding may disrupt electricity supply and even lead to cascading failures. Meanwhile, it is crucial to address potential biases affecting different customers when executing load shedding. This paper addresses the dynamic topology reconfiguration problem for networked microgrids with distributed energy resources under emergency conditions. Specifically, we propose a novel rolling-horizon optimization model that integrates fairness-aware constraints into the networked microgrid topology reconfiguration. Unlike existing approaches that focus solely on efficiency or apply fairness considerations in static settings, our method explicitly incorporates temporal fairness constraints to restrict repeated or excessive load curtailment for load blocks. Moreover, the fairness-aware constraints are specifically developed for the context of dynamic networked microgrid topology reconfiguration, and are designed to be convex or amenable to linear reformulations, which offers a more tractable alternative to traditional models with non-convex formulations. Numerical studies on a modified IEEE 13-bus system and a larger-sized SMART-DS networked microgrid system demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm towards more fairness-aware networked microgrid topology reconfiguration decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Detection of Coordinated Attacks (DCA) in Distribution Systems

The fast-paced growth in digitization of smart grid components enhances system observability and remote-control capabilities through efficient communication. However, enhanced connectivity results in heightened system vulnerability towards cybersecurity risks in the cyber-physical power system. Coordinated cyber-attacks (CCA), when undetected, lead to system-wide impact in terms of large disturbances or widespread outages. Detecting CCA in the cyber layer is critical to thwart cyber-attacks in real-time before the attack impacts the physical system. The challenge of locating CCA stems from the complex grid dynamics, making it difficult to distinguish between normal operational variations and cyber-attack impact. CCA often employs multiple attack vectors targeting geographically distributed components, further complicating CCA identification. Existing research in intrusion detection is primarily focused on the transmission network and limited to detecting individual attacks. In this paper, a novel proactive DCA strategy is proposed for early detection of CCA by establishing correlations among distinct attack events through model-based reinforcement learning that utilizes abductive reasoning to conclude the attacker goal. The solution includes understanding the system model, learning the system dynamics, and correlating individual cyber-attacks to extract the attacker’s objective. The developed learning algorithm identifies the most probable attack path to reach the attacker’s objective by predicting the next attack steps. A DNP3-based cyber-physical co-simulation testbed is developed to test the proposed algorithm using the IEEE 13-node test feeder.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Behavioral Robotics Approach to Radiation Mapping Using Adaptive Sampling

Radiation mapping is a desirable task to automate because of the inherent risks involved and its tedious nature. A novel system was designed to address this by combining various existing technologies, utilizing behavior-based robotics and Bayesian optimization. The system uses a quadruped robot equipped with a manipulator and gamma detector to take measurements at locations that are selected based on the uncertainty of a surrogate model used to estimate the true radiation field. The robot uses input from the world with depth cameras to avoid collisions with the robot’s body, and unreachable points for the end effector are addressed by both allowing for a soft collision with the environment to occur, prompting the system to abandon that point, and varying the exploration tendency of the optimization based on consecutive collisions. This approach provides unique traversability and adaptability over other strategies in the literature. Experiments were performed by placing a Cesium-137 source on the ground and varying geometric setups and an optimization parameter demonstrating the adaptability to diverse environments and the increased robustness resulting from the designed behavior. The results additionally demonstrate that dynamically adjusting the optimization algorithm’s exploration tendency based on the arm’s collision history improves the system’s ability to navigate cluttered environments and construct accurate radiation maps without getting stuck in unreachable areas.

Adams, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A strategy for automated core design to increase economic viability and minimize fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal susceptibility in high-burnup cores

The nuclear industry aims to increase the cycle length of pressurized water reactors from 18 to 24 months to increase power plant capacity factors and economic viability. These cycle length extensions will inherently require fuel rods to exceed the current peak rod average burnup limit of 62 GWd/MTU. A chief concern of operating beyond the current burnup limit is the fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) phenomenon in which pulverized fuel fragments can axially relocate and escape through a burst in the cladding formed during a loss-of-coolant accident. In this work, we demonstrate an approach for automating core design employing an optimization tool based on a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing algorithm to produce pressurized water reactor core designs with two different optimization objectives. The two objectives were to produce core designs with (1) mitigated FFRD susceptibility while achieving 24-month cycle lengths (2) maximum cycle length with no regard for the likelihood of FFRD. Batch size was considered in tandem with both cases to maximize economic viability. The PARCS nodal model was the primary reactor physics tool used in the optimizations and used nuclear cross sections calculated with 2D Polaris lattice physics models. Reactor performance and safety characteristics of the optimized cores were verified using high-fidelity Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications models. The core designs produced by the optimization tool are compared with each other and to a high-burnup core design produced and analyzed in previous works to highlight the fuel management strategies that may enhance high-burnup reactor safety and economic viability. The optimized cores satisfied their respective objective functions, producing a maximum cycle length of 720 effective full-power days in one core design and one that may reduce FFRD susceptibility by up to 50% based on the first-order approximation to FFRD risk formulated in this work. The optimized cores met most constraints but exceeded the hot channel factor limit, especially in FFRD cases where fresh fuel carried more power. Furthermore, this highlights the need for future lattice-level optimizations and broader assembly options.

Cycle length↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contaminant Investigation and Pre‐Processing Opportunities for Textile‐To‐Textile Recycling

Millions of metric tons of textiles are landfilled or incinerated each year in the United States, with less than 1% of textiles recycled into new clothing or fabrics. To counter this trend, a growing number of companies and researchers are exploring how a circular economy can be applied to support textile‐to‐textile recycling. A significant barrier they face comes down to quickly and efficiently extracting pure feedstock material from post‐consumer garments that feature a mix of natural and synthetic fibers. Textile recyclers prefer pure feedstocks, as working with mixed sources typically means lower throughput, higher risk of equipment failure, and diminished business margins. To facilitate a circular economy for textiles, methods, and technologies are needed that can efficiently separate out materials and contaminants from end‐of‐life textiles to increase the flow of pure feedstocks to recyclers. This paper summarizes findings from interviews with a cross section of textile recyclers and from a review of literature to define basic feedstock requirements. In addition to our qualitative research, we deconstruct a bale of post‐consumer textiles and analyze them using computer‐vision imaging, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and machine learning. The resulting data are used to set system‐level design inputs for an automated contaminant removal system to process post‐consumer clothing into appropriate feedstocks for recycling. To set the system's levels for automated real‐time near‐infrared analysis, we identify the minimum percentage of primary material that any single garment in a load of used clothing must contain for the average of the full output stream to meet the target purity levels of recyclers. Here, the envisioned automated system can also address undesirable trace materials that might contaminate the processed stream by using imaging cameras coupled with artificial intelligence to identify sections of clothing for de‐trimming. Proof‐of‐concept machine learning algorithms are evaluated to locate and identify trims or garment areas with hidden contaminant materials. Integrating these methods into automated textile cutting systems can provide a cost‐effective means for increasing feedstock purity from used clothing, which can advance circularity for textiles by helping recyclers to reach production volumes and quality targets that were not possible solely with manual dismantling operations.

Parsons, Ryan [Rochester Institute of Technology, ↗