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Toward a dynamic-thermodynamic assimilation of satellite surface temperature in numerical atmospheric models

An assimilation technique is described in which satellite-observed surface skin temperature tendencies are used in a model surface energy budget so that the predicted rate of temperature change in the model more closely agrees with the satellite observations. Both visible and infrared GOES satellite data are used in the assimilation. The technique is based on analytically recovering surface moisture from similarity expressions derived from an evapotranspiration residual obtained as a difference between the unadjusted model evapotranspiration and the satellite-inferred evapotranspiration. The technique has application in regional-scale models where surface parameters such as root zone moisture, soil moisture, etc., are unknown. It is assumed that the largest error in the surface energy budget is in the evapotranspiration term. Two tests are given for the technique, first, a one-dimensional test against FIFE data and, second, a three-dimensional test over Oklahoma. In these cases the technique appears to correctly adjust the model response to agree better with observations.

Mcnider, Richard T.↗

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W/m in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (+/- 10 W/sq m). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W/sq m and 25 W/sq m, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W/m for sensible beat flux and 10 W/m for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to ground water, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Chen, Tian Hong↗

Status of the Signals of Opportunity Airborne Demonstrator (SoOp-AD)

Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) is not directly measured by any current satellite instrument, despite its importance as a key link between surface hydrology and deeper processes. Presently, model assimilation of surface measurements or indirect estimates using other methods must be used to estimate this value. Signals of Opportunity (SoOp) methods, exploiting reflected P- and S-band communication satellite signals, have many of the benefits of both active and passive microwave remote sensing. Reutilization of active transmitters, with forward-scattering geometry, presents a strong reflected signal even at orbital altitudes. Microwave radiometry is advantageous as it measures emissivity, which is directly related to dielectric constant and sensitive to water content of soil. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is used in P-band (400 MHz) for soil moisture and biomass, but faces issues in obtaining permission to transmit due to spectrum regulations, particularly over North America and Europe. A primary advantage of SAR is excellent spatial resolution. Signals-of-opportunity (SoOp) reflectometry provides a good compromise between radiometry and SAR by providing decent sensitivity and special resolution for RZSM measurements without issues of spectrum access. Further, a SoOp instrument would not be limited to operating in only a few protected frequencies and is also expected to have less susceptibility to radio-frequency interference (RFI). Although advantageous if available, SoOp techniques do not require the ability to demodulate or decode the communication signals. The SoOp instrument is receive only and therefore requires much less electrical power than a SAR and is more similar to a radiometer in receiver architecture. These unique features of SoOp circumvent past obstacles to a spaceborne P-band remote sensing mission and have the potential to enable new RZSM measurements that are not possible with present technology. We will present the latest development status of a SoOp reflectometer airborne demonstrator (SoOp-AD) operating at 250 MHz to take advantage of existing communication satellite. The instrument is currently in laboratory integration and test.

Reflectometers↗

Development Of VHF (240-270 MHz) Antennas For SoOp (Signal Of Opportunity) Receiver For 6u Cubesat Platforms

The main goal of this research is to design, fabricate, and test deployable VHF antennas for 6U Cubesat platforms to enable validation of root zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimation algorithms for signal of opportunity (SoOp) remote sensing over the 240-270 MHz frequency band. The proposed work provides a strong foundation for establishing a technology development path for maturing a truly global direct surface soil moisture (SM) and RZSM measurement system (Figure 1) over a variety of land covers with limited density restrictions. In SoOp methodology, signals transmitted by already existing transmitters (known as transmitters of opportunity, in this case the Military Satellite Communication (MilSatCom) System's UHF Follow-On program) are utilized to measure properties of reflecting targets by recording reflected signals using a simple passive microwave receiver.

Cubesat↗

Assimilation of Gridded GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Estimates in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

The objective of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) is to provide best available estimates of near-surface meteorological conditions and soil hydrological status for the continental United States. To support the ongoing efforts to develop data assimilation (DA) capabilities for NLDAS, the results of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) DA implemented in a manner consistent with NLDAS development are presented. Following previous work, GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly estimates are assimilated into the NASA Catchment land surface model using an ensemble smoother. In contrast to many earlier GRACE DA studies, a gridded GRACE TWS product is assimilated, spatially distributed GRACE error estimates are accounted for, and the impact that GRACE scaling factors have on assimilation is evaluated. Comparisons with quality-controlled in situ observations indicate that GRACE DA has a positive impact on the simulation of unconfined groundwater variability across the majority of the eastern United States and on the simulation of surface and root zone soil moisture across the country. Smaller improvements are seen in the simulation of snow depth, and the impact of GRACE DA on simulated river discharge and evapotranspiration is regionally variable. The use of GRACE scaling factors during assimilation improved DA results in the western United States but led to small degradations in the eastern United States. The study also found comparable performance between the use of gridded and basin averaged GRACE observations in assimilation. Finally, the evaluations presented in the paper indicate that GRACE DA can be helpful in improving the representation of droughts.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

Improved Absolute Radiometric Calibration of a UHF Airborne Radar

The AirMOSS airborne SAR operates at UHF and produces fully polarimetric imagery. The AirMOSS radar data are used to produce Root Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) depth profiles. The absolute radiometric accuracy of the imagery, ideally of better than 0.5 dB, is key to retrieving RZSM, especially in wet soils where the backscatter as a function of soil moisture function tends to flatten out. In this paper we assess the absolute radiometric uncertainty in previously delivered data, describe a method to utilize Built In Test (BIT) data to improve the radiometric calibration, and evaluate the improvement from applying the method.

radar calibration↗

Land Surface Precipitation and Hydrology in MERRA-2

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), provides global, 1-hourly estimates of land surface conditions for 1980-present at 50-km resolution. Outside of the high latitudes, MERRA-2 uses observations-based precipitation data products to correct the precipitation falling on the land surface. This paper describes the precipitation correction method and evaluates the MERRA-2 land surface precipitation and hydrology. Compared to monthly GPCPv2.2 observations, the corrected MERRA-2 precipitation (M2CORR) is better than the precipitation generated by the atmospheric models within the cyclingMERRA-2 system and the earlier MERRA reanalysis. Compared to 3-hourlyTRMM observations, the M2CORR diurnal cycle has better amplitude but less realistic phasing than MERRA-2 model-generated precipitation. Because correcting the precipitation within the coupled atmosphere-land modeling system allows the MERRA-2 near-surface air temperature and humidity to respond to the improved precipitation forcing, MERRA-2 provides more self-consistent surface meteorological data than were available from the earlier, offline MERRA-Land reanalysis. Overall, MERRA-2 land hydrology estimates are better than those of MERRA-Land and MERRA. A comparison against GRACE satellite observations of terrestrial water storage demonstrates clear improvements in MERRA-2 over MERRA in South America and Africa but also reflects known errors in the observations used to correct the MERRA-2 precipitation. The MERRA-2 and MERRA-Land surface and root zone soil moisture skill vs. in situ measurements is slightly higher than that of ERA-Interim Land and higher than that of MERRA (significantly for surface soil moisture). Snow amounts from MERRA-2 have lower bias and correlate better against reference data than do those of MERRA-Land and MERRA, with MERRA-2 skill roughly matching that of ERA-Interim Land. Seasonal anomaly R values against naturalized stream flow measurements in the United States are, on balance, highest for MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim Land, somewhat lower for MERRA-Land, and lower still for MERRA.

MERRA-↗

A Comparison of Satellite Data-Based Drought Indicators in Detecting the 2012 Drought in the Southeastern US

The drought of 2012 in the North America devastated agricultural crops and pastures, further damaging agriculture and livestock industries and leading to great losses in the economy. The drought maps of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM) and various drought monitoring techniques based on the data collected by the satellites orbiting in space such as the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are inter-compared during the 2012 drought conditions in the southeastern United States. The results indicated that spatial extent of drought reported by USDM were in general agreement with those reported by the MODIS-based drought maps. GRACE-based drought maps suggested that the southeastern US experienced widespread decline in surface and root-zone soil moisture and groundwater resources. Disagreements among all drought indicators were observed over irrigated areas, especially in Lower Mississippi region where agriculture is mainly irrigated. Besides, we demonstrated that time lag of vegetation response to changes in soil moisture and groundwater partly contributed to these disagreements, as well.

drought indicators↗

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗

Definition of a Technology Validation Mission for P-band Reflectometry using Signals of Opportunity

Root-Zone Soil Moisture (RZSM) (moisture profile in the top meter of soil) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (total snow pack water content) are identified as priority target variables in the ESAS 2017 decadal survey [1] with critical roles in hydrology and water management. RZSM estimates are vital for understanding multiple Earth system processes and forecasting (for example, droughts [2]). Simultaneous knowledge of surface and RZSM could enable a breakthrough in estimating key unobserved hydrologic fluxes and reduce uncertainty in net ecosystem exchange (NEE), carbon balance [3] discharge estimates, and crop yield forecasts [4] .With the high albedo and insulating properties of snow, monitoring, SWE accumulation would provide a key constraint on the potential runoff during spring ablation while monitoring SWE disappearance rates would provide a key constraint on SWE partition into runoff vs. infiltration/recharge. [5] demonstrated that knowledge of early-spring SWE generally contributes most to streamflow forecast skill in the Western U.S. SWE is also a source of water storage that provides the water resources during spring snowmelt. Despite such potentially transformative contributions, accurate RZSM and SWE measurements are unattainable with current technology. While active/passive L-band methods (e.g. SMAP, SMOS) can reliably retrieve surface soil moisture in the top 5 cm of soil [6], [7]. RZSM estimates are only available through model assimilation of brightness temperatures with a radiative transfer and land surface models [8]. SWE estimation uses multi-frequency passive microwave techniques (e.g. [9]-[11]), which have significant problems with deeper snow and in forested and mountainous environments [12]. Signals of opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (200-400 MHz) is a new remote sensing technique with the capability of estimating both essential hydrologic variables, RZSM and SWE, circumventing many of the aforementioned limitations under all weather conditions day and night. SoOp is the re-utilization of existing powerful satellite transmissions within bands allocated for communications or navigation. P-band SoOp sensitivity to soil moisture has been demonstrated in an airborne experiment over Oklahoma in 2016 [13]. Recent theory [14] and experiments [15] have also confirmed that the reflection coefficient phase is proportional to SWE.

Garrison, J. L.↗

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

SNOOPI: Demonstrating P-Band Reflectometry from Orbit

SigNals Of Opportunity: P-band Investigation (SNOOPI)will be the first on-orbit demonstration of remote sensing using Signals of Opportunity (SoOp) in P-band (240-380 MHz). P-band is needed to penetrate through dense vegetation and into the root zone. The longer wavelength of P-band also increases the unwrapping interval for phase observations. These observations hold the potential for spaceborne remote sensing of root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) and snow water equivalent(SWE), two variables identified as priorities in the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space. SNOOPI will provide in-space validation of both the P-band SoOp technique and a science instrument prototype. SNOOPI technology validation goals will be met by targeting observations within 9 km of the SMAP calibration/validation sites in the continental United States. A secondary priority is collection of continuous phase data over snow-covered regions. These goals are evaluated under constraints of a limited data budget and mission lifetime, with a launch readiness in early2022. Updates on the development of measurement models and mission planning to support SNOOPI are provided. Aground-based station will be deployed to monitor the non-cooperative sources, in order to reduce risk due to uncertainty in knowledge of the broadcast power, spectrum shape, and orbital position.

J L Garrison↗

Reflectivity, Emissivity, and Brightness from Multilayered Soil with Linearly Varying Permittivity at P- and L- bands

Passive sensing of root zone soil moisture is theoretically investigated using P and L band frequencies. The soil is considered to be a stratified medium. The reflectivity from the soil surface is found by considering the soil to be composed of a finely layered structure with layer widths that are small compared to a wavelength. A well-known transmission line algorithm is then used to compute the reflectivity at the surface. Emissivity is obtained as (1 – reflectivity). It assumed that the soil is at a constant temperature of 300o K when determining the brightness temperature. A soil moisture profile consisting of two homogeneous layers separated by a layer of linearly varying soil moisture is investigated. The study is made at an incident angle of 40O for horizontal polarization at 0.8 and 1.4 GHz. Two variations of the basic profile are considered: a transition from a layer of lesser moisture to a layer of greater moisture and the opposite. In both cases the P band signal shows greater penetration than the L band case. There is greater penetration in the transition to drier soils. In both cases the L band signals show sensitivity to only the upper surface of the soil as expected.

Ming Li↗

Instrument Science Experiments on the SNOOPI P-Band Reflectometry Mission

SigNals Of Opportunity: P-band Investigation (SNOOPI) will be the first in-space validation of P-band (240–380 MHz) SoOp techniques and a prototype science instrument. These techniques have the potential to enable remote sensing of root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) and snow water equivalent (SWE). SNOOPI technology validation goals will be met by targeting observations within 9 km of the SMAP calibration/validation sites in the continental United States. A second priority is collection of continuous phase data over snow-covered regions. These goals are evaluated under constraints of a limited data budget and mission lifetime, with a launch readiness in August 2022. This presentation will review the instrument science plans aimed at achieving the validation objectives defined for the mission. Mission planning and data processing approaches are described.

Soil Moisture↗

A Spaceborne Demonstration of P-Band Signals-of-Opportunity (SoOp) Reflectometry

Land-reflected signals from a geosynchronous communication satellite broadcasting in P-band (367.5 MHz) were captured in low Earth orbit (LEO) using a simple dipole antenna. A delay-Doppler map (DDM) was generated through autocorrelation. Estimates of the specular point delay were obtained from the lag of the second peak in the DDM with a bias of 239.4 m and a standard deviation of 44 m (12 m over a frozen lake) with respect to a predicted orbit model. Relative magnitudes of the first and second DDM peaks fell within the range of values predicted using dielectric models for the frozen ground and lake. Finally, retrievals of surface reflection coefficient were generated using a range of realistic values for the transmitter link budget G/T , and these also fell within the range of possible values for the antenna gain pattern. Given the lack of calibration and the large uncertainties in the receiver orbit and attitude, this agreement is sufficient to conclude a successful demonstration of the fundamental principle of single-antenna reflectometry in P-band. P-band reflectometry may offer a new approach to remote sensing of sub-canopy and root-zone soil moisture.

Delays↗

Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS): Global Ensemble Landslide Hazard Modelling

In this study we present a model for the global Probabilistic Hydrological Estimation of LandSlides (PHELS). PHELS estimates the daily hazard of hydrologically triggered landslides at a coarse spatial resolution of 36 km, by combining landslide susceptibility (LSS) and (percentiles of) hydrological variable(s). The latter include daily rainfall, a 7-day antecedent rainfall index (ARI7) or root-zone soil moisture content (rzmc) as hydrological predictor variables, or the combination of rainfall and rzmc. The hazard estimates with any of these predictor variables have areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) above 0.68. The best performance was found with combined rainfall and rzmc predictors (AUC = 0.79), which resulted in the lowest number of missed alarms (especially during spring) and false alarms. Furthermore, PHELS provides hazard uncertainty estimates by generating ensemble simulations based on repeated sampling of LSS and the hydrological predictor variables. The estimated hazard uncertainty follows the behaviour of the input variable uncertainties, is about 13.6 % of the estimated hazard value on average across the globe and in time and is smallest for very low and very high hazard values.

Anne Felsberg↗

Infrared temperature measurements over bare soil and vegetation - A HAPEX perspective

Preliminary analyses of aircraft and ground measurements made in France during the HAPEX experiment show that horizontal radiometric surface temperature variations, as viewed by aircraft, can reflect the vertical profile of soil moisture (soil versus root zone) because of horizontal variations in vegetation density. Analyses based on one day's data show that, although horizontal variations in soil moisture were small, the vertical differences between a dry surface and a wet root zone were large. Horizontal temperature differences between bare soil, corn and oats reflect differences in the fractional vegetation cover, as seen by the radiometer. On the other hand, these horizontal variations in radiometric surface temperature seem to reflect real horizontal variations in surface turbulent energy fluxes.

Carlson, Toby N.↗

SMAP Data Assimilation at the GMAO

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) passive microwave brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. These observations are sensitive to surface(0-5 cm) soil moisture. Several of the key applications targeted by SMAP, however, require knowledge of deeper-layer, root zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture, which is not directly measured by SMAP. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) contributes to SMAP by providing Level 4 data, including the Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture(L4_SM) product, which is based on the assimilation of SMAP Tb observations in the ensemble-based NASA GEOS-5 land surface data assimilation system. The L4_SM product offers global data every three hours at 9 km resolution, thereby interpolating and extrapolating the coarser- scale (40 km) SMAP observations in time and in space (both horizontally and vertically). Since October 31, 2015, beta-version L4_SM data have been available to the public from the National Snow and Ice Data Center for the period March 31, 2015, to near present, with a mean latency of approx. 2.5 days.

Land Surface Model↗