Plant Physiological Responses to Rising CO 2 Modify Simulated Daily Runoff Intensity With Implications for Global‐Scale Flood Risk Assessment
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Gabriel J. Kooperman↗
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Analyzing Effects of Crops on SMAP Satellite-based Soil Moisture using a Rainfall-Runoff Model in the U.S. Corn Belt
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Navid Jadidoleslam↗
Winter/Spring Runoff Is Earlier, More Protracted, and Increasing in Volume in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin
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Allison R. Hrycik↗
A modeling study of the effect of runoff variability on the effective pressure beneath Russell Glacier, West Greenland
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Basile de Fleurian↗
Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming
Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.
Paris Agreement↗
Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States
16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.
Seager, Richard↗
Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on Water Quality in Belize
Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load and excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate change and evolving precipitation rates can intensify the quantity of runoff, further enabling the flow of sediments and excess nutrients out to the lagoon surrounding the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study estimated future water quality in Belize by projecting LULC change through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based on observed trends from 2008-2018. Those LULC projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, and precipitation rates into a hydrologic model to produce runoff estimates as a proxy for water quality. The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed in the study represented bookend climate change scenarios, and both predicted lower precipitation rates in Belize over the next century due to climate change. When holding LULC change constant, these climate scenarios projected a decrease in runoff, suggesting a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. The southern watersheds in particular are projected to experience greater decreases in annual rainfall and runoff by 2090. When holding climate constant, runoff increased by approximately 2.8% in the Conservation-focused LULC scenario by 2090, which was 28% lower than the Business as Usual scenario and 42% lower than the Development scenario.
water resources↗
Hydrological Regimes of Small Catchments in the High Tatra Mountains Before and After Extraordinary Wind-Induced Deforestation
The paper presents the results of rainfall-runoff data analysis for small catchments of the upper Poprad River affected by wind-induced deforestation in November 2004. Before-event and afterevent measured data were compared in order to assess the impact of deforestation on hydrological regimes. Several characteristics were used including water balance, minimum and maximum runoff, runoff thresholds, number of runoff events, selected characteristics of events, runoff coefficients, and flashiness indices. Despite increased spring runoff minima, which in one catchment (Velick Creek) exceeded previously observed values after deforestation took place, it can be generally concluded that the impact of the deforestation was not clearly manifested in the analyzed hydrological data.
Holko, Ladislav↗
To What Extent Can Vegetation Mitigate Greenhouse Warming? A Modeling Approach
Climate models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report indicate that under a 2xCO2 environment, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We postulate that the increase in precipitation associated with the increase in CO2 is also increasing vegetation density, which may already be feeding back onto climate. Including this feedback in a climate model simulation resulted in precipitation and runoff trends consistent with observations and reduced the warming by 0.6OC overland. This unaccounted for missing water may be linked to about 10% of the missing land carbon sink. A recent compilation of outputs from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) shows projected increases in air temperature, precipitation and river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world in response to doubling CO2 by the end of the century (1). The ensemble mean from these models also indicates that, compared to their respective baselines overland, the global mean of the runoff change would increase faster (8.9% per year) than that of the precipitation (5% per year). We analyze century-scale observed annual runoff time-series (1901-2002) over 9 hydrological units covering large regions of the Eastern United States (Fig.1) compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS)(2). These regions were selected because they are the most forested; the least water-limited and are not under extensive irrigation. We compare these time-series to similar time-series of observed annual precipitation anomalies spanning the period 1900-1995 (3). Both time-series exhibit a positive longterm trend (Fig. 2); however, in contrast to the analysis of (I), these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increase is 5.5 % per year, roughly double the rate of runoff increase of 3.1 % per year.
Bounoua, L.↗
Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study
Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.
Bounoui, Lahouari↗
Oceanic Transport of Surface Meltwater from the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet
The Greenland ice sheet has undergone accelerating mass losses during recent decades. Freshwater runoff from ice melt can influence fjord circulation and dynamic1 and the delivery of bioavailable micronutrients to the ocean. It can also have climate implications, because stratification in the adjacent Labrador Sea may influence deep convection and the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Yet, the fate of the meltwater in the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model to show that only 1-15% of the surface meltwater runoff originating from southwest Greenland is transported westwards. In contrast, up to 50-60% of the meltwater runoff originating from southeast Greenland is transported westwards into the northern Labrador Sea, leading to significant salinity and stratification anomalies far from the coast. Doubling meltwater runoff, as predicted in future climate scenarios, results in a more-than-double increase in anomalies offshore that persists further into the winter. Interannual variability in offshore export of meltwater is tightly related to variability in wind forcing. The new insight that meltwaters originating from the west and east coasts have different fates indicates that future changes in mass loss rates and surface runoff will probably impact the ocean differently, depending on their Greenland origins.
Physical oceanography↗
The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future
Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.
Mankin, Justin S.↗
Spectral Measurement of Watershed Coefficients in the Southern Great Plains
The author has identified the following significant results. It was apparent that the spectra calibration of runoff curve numbers cannot be achieved on watersheds where significant areas of timber were within the drainage area. The absorption of light by wet soil conditions restricts differentiation of watersheds with regard to watershed runoff curve numbers. It appeared that the predominant factor influencing the classification of watershed runoff curve numbers was the difference in soil color and its associated reflectance when dry. In regions where vegetation grown throughout the year, where wet surface conditions prevail or where watersheds are timbered, there is little hope of classifying runoff potential with visible light alone.
Blanchard, B. J.↗
Use of aerial photography in determining land use and streamflow relationships on small developing watersheds
Using aerial photographs dating back to 1937, the historical trends of five land use classes (crop, forest, open field, urban and suburban) are determined. The relationships between these and various flow regime parameters are investigated. Annual runoff is found to be 7.5 inches greater now than in the year 1932. It is also found that growing season runoff increased by 3.5 inches during the same period. This increase is approximately equivalent to 160 area inches of excess runoff during the 45-year period of observation. The increase in runoff is found to be positively correlated with the percent basin area in the urban, suburban and open field land use classes. A negative correlation is established with forest and crop land. Although poor correlations are found with high flow, low flow, flow interval and flow date data, it is thought that a more precise quantification of land use or a smaller basin area may possibly have yielded more positive results for streamflow timing data.
Owe, M.↗
Continental-scale river flow in climate models
The hydrologic cycle is a major part of the global climate system. There is an atmospheric flux of water from the ocean surface to the continents. The cycle is closed by return flow in rivers. In this paper a river routing model is developed to use with grid box climate models for the whole earth. The routing model needs an algorithm for the river mass flow and a river direction file, which has been compiled for 4 deg x 5 deg and 2 deg x 2.5 deg resolutions. River basins are defined by the direction files. The river flow leaving each grid box depends on river and lake mass, downstream distance, and an effective flow speed that depends on topography. As input the routing model uses monthly land source runoff from a 5-yr simulation of the NASA/GISS atmospheric climate model (Hansen et al.). The land source runoff from the 4 deg x 5 deg resolution model is quartered onto a 2 deg x 2.5 deg grid, and the effect of grid resolution is examined. Monthly flow at the mouth of the world's major rivers is compared with observations, and a global error function for river flow is used to evaluate the routing model and its sensitivity to physical parameters. Three basinwide parameters are introduced: the river length weighted by source runoff, the turnover rate, and the basinwide speed. Although the values of these parameters depend on the resolution at which the rivers are defined, the values should converge as the grid resolution becomes finer. When the routing scheme described here is coupled with a climate model's source runoff, it provides the basis for closing the hydrologic cycle in coupled atmosphere-ocean models by realistically allowing water to return to the ocean at the correct location and with the proper magnitude and timing.
Miller, James R.↗
Use of TOPSAR digital elevation data to determine the 3-dimensional shape of an alluvial fan
Landforms in arid regions record the interplay between tectonic forces and climate. Alluvial fans are a common landform in desert regions where the rate of uplift is greater than weathering or sedimentation. Changes in uplift rate or climatic conditions can lead to isolation of the currently forming fan surface through entrenchment and construction of another fan either further from the mountain front (decreased uplift or increased runoff) or closer to the mountain front (increased uplift or decreased runoff). Thus, many alluvial fans are made up of a mosaic of fan units of different age, some older than 1 million years. For this reason, determination of the stages of fan evolution can lead to a history of uplift and runoff. In an attempt to separate the effects of tectonic (uplift) and climatic (weathering, runoff, sedimentation) processes on the shapes of alluvial fan units, a modified conic equation developed by Troeh (1965) was fitted to TOPSAR digital topographic data for the Trail Canyon alluvial fan in Death Valley, California. This allows parameters for the apex position, slope, and radial curvature to be compared with unit age.
Farr, Tom G.↗
The Continuing Evolution of Land Surface Parameterizations
Land surface models (LSMs) play a critical role in the simulation of climate, for they determine the character of a large fraction of the atmosphere's lower boundary. The LSM partitions the net radiative energy at the land surface into sensible heat, latent heat, and energy storage, and it partitions incident precipitation water into evaporation, runoff, and water storage. Numerous modeling experiments and the existing (though very scant) observational evidence suggest that variations in these partitionings can feed back on the atmospheric processes that induce them. This land-atmosphere feedback can in turn have a significant impact on the generation of continental precipitation. For this and other reasons (including the role of the land surface in converting various atmospheric quantities, such as precipitation, into quantities of perhaps higher societal relevance, such as runoff), many modeling groups are placing a high emphasis on improving the treatment of land surface processes in their models. LSMs have evolved substantially from the original bucket model of Manabe et al. This evolution, which is still ongoing, has been documented considerably. The present paper also takes a look at the evolution of LSMs. The perspective here, though, is different - the evolution is considered strictly in terms of the 'balance' between the formulations of evaporation and runoff processes. The paper will argue that a proper balance is currently missing, largely due to difficulties in treating subgrid variability in soil moisture and its impact on the generation of runoff.
Koster, Randal↗
NASA Data for Water Resources Applications
Water Management Applications is one of twelve elements in the Earth Science Enterprise National Applications Program. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is supporting the Applications Program through partnering with other organizations to use NASA project results, such as from satellite instruments and Earth system models to enhance the organizations critical needs. The focus thus far has been: 1) estimating water storage including snowpack and soil moisture, 2) modeling and predicting water fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and river runoff, and 3) remote sensing of water quality, including both point source (e.g., turbidity and productivity) and non-point source (e.g., land cover conversion such as forest to agriculture yielding higher nutrient runoff). The objectives of the partnering cover three steps of: 1) Evaluation, 2) Verification and Validation, and 3) Benchmark Report. We are working with the U.S. federal agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and the Department of Agriculture (USDA). We are using several of their Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools. This includes the DSS support tools BASINS used by EPA, Riverware and AWARDS ET ToolBox by USBR and SWAT by USDA and EPA. Regional application sites using NASA data across the US. are currently being eliminated for the DSS tools. The current NASA data emphasized thus far are from the Land Data Assimilation Systems WAS) and MODIS satellite products. We are currently in the first two steps of evaluation and verification validation. Water Management Applications is one of twelve elements in the Earth Science Enterprise s National Applications Program. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is supporting the Applications Program through partnering with other organizations to use NASA project results, such as from satellite instruments and Earth system models to enhance the organizations critical needs. The focus thus far has been: 1) estimating water storage including snowpack and soil moisture, 2) modeling and predicting water fluxes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation and river runoff, and 3) remote sensing of water quality, including both point source (e.g., turbidity and productivity) and non-point source (e.g., land cover conversion such as forest to agriculture yielding higher nutrient runoff). The objectives of the partnering cover three steps of 1) Evaluation, 2) Verification and Validation, and 3) Benchmark Report. We are working with the U.S. federal agencies the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and the Department of Agriculture (USDA). We are using several of their Decision Support Systems (DSS) tools. T us includes the DSS support tools BASINS used by EPA, Riverware and AWARDS ET ToolBox by USBR and SWAT by USDA and EPA. Regional application sites using NASA data across the US. are currently being evaluated for the DSS tools. The current NASA data emphasized thus far are from the Land Data Assimilation Systems (LDAS) and MODIS satellite products. We are currently in the first two steps of evaluation and verification and validation.
Toll, David↗