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Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

On Theories of Change: Rethinking the Ban Treaty and Disarmament Strategies

A week before Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi had lunch with the Financial Times. In the interview, Grossi expressed both optimism and pessimism about the nuclear landscape: he was hopeful about prospects for diplomacy, including with Iran. But he also expressed longer-term concerns about a proliferation cascade and rising nuclear risks, in particular, Russia’s nuclear threats amidst the war in Ukraine. “In the past, this was quite taboo,” he said, “but now people talk about tactical nuclear weapons like something which could be contained or permissible.” Given subsequent events in Iran, along with the expiration of New START in 2026 and expanding nuclear arsenals in Russia and China, pessimism would seem to trump hope for prospects for nuclear disarmament.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980-2018

Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment, and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since the 1980s in Europe,mainly owing to a reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions.Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantifies contributions from 16 source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The majority of which was contributed to reductions of local emissions in Europe, and 8 %–9 % was induced by a decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important for air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading led to a warming effect of 2.0 W m –2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both local European emissions and non-European emissions should decrease at a comparable rate in the next 3 decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions for causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Results from the US/Russian Meteor-3/Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer

The development of Meteor-3/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) was a joint project of the United States and Russia to fly a U.S. ozone measuring instrument (TOMS) onboard a Russian spacecraft (Meteor-3) and rocket (Cyclone), launched from Plesetsk, Russia. The Meteor-3/TOMS (M3TOMS) was launched into a 1202-km-high, near-polar orbit on 15 Aug. 1991, where it can obtain complete global coverage for most of each year. Both the U.S. and Russian sides have successfully received and processed data into ozone amounts from 25 Aug. 1991 to 1 Jun. 1992, and expect to continue for the life of the instrument and spacecraft. The successful development of the instrument hardware, spacecraft interface, data memory, telemetry systems, and software are described. Descriptions are given of the U.S. and Russian ground stations for receiving M3TOMS data. In addition, the data reduction software was independently developed by the U.S. and by the Russians, and is shown to agree to better than the precision of the measurements.

Herman, Jay R.↗

Biophysical characterization and surface radiation balance

The Kursk 1991 Experiment (KUREX-91) was conducted as one of a suite of international studies to develop capabilities to monitor global change. The studies were designed specifically to understand the earth's land-surface vegetation and atmospheric boundary layer interaction. An intensive field campaign was conducted at a site near Kursk, Russia during the month of July in 1991 by a team of international scientists to aid in the understanding of land-surface-atmosphere interactions in an agricultural/grassland setting. We were one of several teams of scientists participating at KUREX-91 at the Streletskaya Steppe Researve near Kursk, Russia. The main goals of our research were to: (1) characterize biophysical properties of the prairie vegetation; and (2) to characterize radiation regime through measurements and from estimates derived from canopy bidirectional reflectance data. Four objectives were defined to achieve these goals: (1) determine dependence of leaf optical properties on leaf water potential of some dominant species in discrete wavebands in the visible, near-infrared, and mid-infrared (spanning 0.4-2.3 microns range); (2) characterize the effective leaf area index (LAI) and leaf angle distribution of prairie vegetation; (3) characterize the radiation regime of the prairie vegetation through measures of the radiation balance components; and (4) examine, develop, and test methods for estimating albedo, APAR, and LAI from canopy bidirectional reflectance data. Papers which were the result of the research efforts are included.

Walter-Shea, Elizabeth A.↗

Satellite communications systems and technology. Executive Summary

NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) commissioned a panel of US experts to study the international status of satellite communications systems and technology. The study covers emerging systems concepts, applications, services, and the attendant technologies. The panel members travelled to Europe, Japan, and Russia to gather information first-hand. They visited 17 sites in Europe, 20 sites in Japan, and four in Russia. These included major manufacturers, government organizations, service providers, and associated R&D facilities. The panel's report was reviewed by the sites visited, by the panel, and by representatives of US industry. The report details the information collected and compares it to US activities.

Edelson, Burton I.↗

Micromanufacturing: Recent developments in this country and abroad

This paper has attempted to summarize some recent activities in this country and overseas. The effort in Louisiana is relatively new and growing. The Russian effort is not well coordinated or documented. A conference on Micro Systems Technologies is scheduled for June of 1993 in St. Petersburg, Russia. Serious consideration should be given to developing a strategy to not only participate in this meeting, but also to spend additional time in Russia assessing the technology. MEMS technologies will eventually affect virtually every aspect of our lives and, at least in the near term, mini-devices with micro-components will probably be the economic drivers for the technology.

Warrington, Robert O.↗

Russian national time scale long-term stability

The Institute of Metrology for Time and Space NPO 'VNIIFTRI' generates the National Time Scale (NTS) of Russia -- one of the most stable time scales in the world. Its striking feature is that it is based on a free ensemble of H-masers only. During last two years the estimations of NTS longterm stability based only on H-maser intercomparison data gives a flicker floor of about (2 to 3) x 10(exp -15) for averaging times from 1 day to 1 month. Perhaps the most significant feature for a time laboratory is an extremely low possible frequency drift -- it is too difficult to estimate it reliably. The other estimations, free from possible inside the ensemble correlation phenomena, are available based on the time comparison of NTS relative to the stable enough time scale of outer laboratories. The data on NTS comparison relative to the time scale of secondary time and frequency standards at Golitzino and Irkutsk in Russia and relative to NIST, PTB and USNO using GLONASS and GPS time transfer links gives stability estimations which are close to that based on H-maser intercomparisons.

Alshina, A. P.↗

United States/Russia Space Cooperation Documentary

This video documents the initiative to develop a multinational, permanent space research laboratory. Historical background on the U.S. and Soviet manned space flight program as well as joint efforts such as the Apollo-Soyuz link up is shown. The current initiative will begin with collaborative missions involving NASA's space shuttle and Russia's Mir space station, and culminate in a permanently manned space station involving the U.S., Russia, Japan, Canada, and ESA. Shown are computer simulations of the proposed space station. Commentary is provided by the NASA administrator, former astronauts, cosmonauts, and Russian and American space experts.

Source record↗

Information and communication technology

NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF) commissioned a panel of U.S. experts to study the international status of satellite communications systems and technology. The study covers emerging systems concepts, applications, services, and the attendant technologies. The panel members traveled to Europe, Japan, and Russia to gather information firsthand. They visited 17 sites in Europe, 20 in Japan, and 4 in Russia. These included major manufacturers, government organizations, service providers, and associated research and development facilities. The panel's report was reviewed by the sites visited, by the panel, and by representatives of U.S. industry. The report details the information collected and compares it to U.S. activities.

Edelson, Burton I.↗

Global ozone data from the meteor-3/TOMS ultraviolet spectrometer

A new TOMS instrument (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) was launched from the Plesetsk Cosomodrome, Russia on August 15, 1991. The purpose of the joint project between the U.S. and Russia was to continue the long-term record of ozone measurements from Nimbus-7/TOMS (launched in October 1978). Ozone data from the two satellites compare very closely. When the orbital positions were nearly the same, the comparison over the entire globe showed an offset of 2 percent with a standard deviation of 5 percent. Comparisons were made with several ground based M124 and Dobson stations showing good agreement in absolute value and with the day-to-day variations seen by the ground stations.

Herman, J. R.↗

Quick Look Report of Acceleration Measurements on Mir Space Station During Mir-16

The NASA Microgravity Science and Applications Division (MSAD) sponsors the Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS) to support microgravity science experiments with microgravity acceleration measurements. In the past, SAMS was flown exclusively on the NASA Orbiters. MSAD is currently sponsoring science experiments participating in the Shuttle-Mir Science Program in cooperation with the Russians on the Mir space station. Included in the complement of MSAD experiments and equipment is a SAMS unit installed on the Mir space station. On 25 August 1994, the SAMS unit was launched on a Russia Progress vehicle to the Mir space station. The SAMS unit will support science experiments from the U.S. and Russia in a manner similar to the Orbiter missions by measuring the microgravity environments during the experiment operations. In October 1994, the SAMS unit recorded data on Mir for over fifty-three hours in seven different time periods to survey possible locations for future experiments. This report presents a quick look at the data and the microgravity environment during the time periods in which SAMS data were acquired. The Mir acceleration data were examined to ascertain gross attributes of the data. This report does not present an exhaustive examination of all possible activities due to the short time available to prepare this quick look report and due to the absence of complete timeline information during the SAMS recording time periods. Appendices A, B and C provide plots of the SAMS data for an overview of the microgravity environment at the times that data were recorded. Appendix D describes the procedures to access SAMS data by file transfer protocol (ftp) utilizing the internet. Appendix E contains a user comment sheet.

Delombard, Richard↗

Analysis of solar receiver flux distributions for US/Russian solar dynamic system demonstration on the MIR Space Station

The United States and Russia have agreed to jointly develop a solar dynamic (SD) system for flight demonstration on the Russian MIR space station starting in late 1997. Two important components of this SD system are the solar concentrator and heat receiver provided by Russia and the U.S., respectively. This paper describes optical analysis of the concentrator and solar flux predictions on target receiver surfaces. The optical analysis is performed using the code CIRCE2. These analyses account for finite sun size with limb darkening, concentrator surface slope and position errors, concentrator petal thermal deformation, gaps between petals, and the shading effect of the receiver support struts. The receiver spatial flux distributions are then combined with concentrator shadowing predictions. Geometric shadowing patterns are traced from the concentrator to the target receiver surfaces. These patterns vary with time depending on the chosen MIR flight attitude and orbital mechanics of the MIR spacecraft. The resulting predictions provide spatial and temporal receiver flux distributions for any specified mission profile. The impact these flux distributions have on receiver design and control of the Brayton engine are discussed.

Kerslake, Thomas W.↗

Further analysis of the microgravity environment on Mir Space Station during Mir-16

The NASA Microgravity Science and Applications Division (MSAD) sponsors the Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS) to support microgravity science experiments with microgravity acceleration measurements. In the past, SAMS was flown exclusively on the NASA Orbiters. MSAD is currently sponsoring science experiments participating in the Shuttle-Mir Science Program in cooperation with the Russians on the Mir space station. Included in the complement of MSAD experiments and equipment is a SAMS unit installed on the Mir space station. On 25 August 1994, the SAM unit was launched on a Russia Progress vehicle to the Mir space station. The SAMS unit will support science experiments from the U.S. and Russia in a manner similar to the Orbiter missions by measuring the microgravity environment during the experiment operations. In October 1994, the SAMS unit recorded data on Mir for over fifty-three hours in seven different time periods to survey possible locations for future experiments. The Mir acceleration data were examined by the Principal Investigator, Microgravity Services, to develop characteristics of the data. A report was previously written to quickly summarize the characteristics of the SAMS data from Mir. That report contained an overview of data from the 100 Hertz (Hz) SAMS sensor head. This report presents an overview of the data from the 10 Hz SAMS sensor head and additional information about crew and vehicle activities. Some additional observations are also made concerning the 100 Hz sensor head data. Appendix A describes the procedures to access SAMS data by file transfer protocol (ftp) utilizing the internet. Appendices B and C provide plots of the SAMS 10 Hz data for an overview of the microgravity environment at the times that data were recorded. Appendix D contains a user comment sheet.

Ryaboukha, Stanislav↗

Application of Russian Thermo-Electric Devices (TEDS) for the US Microgravity Program Protein Crystal Growth (PCG) Project

Changes in the former Soviet Union have opened the gate for the exchange of new technology. Interest in this work has been particularly related to Thermal Electric Cooling Devices (TED's) which have an application for the Thermal Enclosure System (TES) developed by NASA. Preliminary information received by NASA/MSFC indicates that Russian TED's have higher efficiency. Based on that assumption NASA/MSFC awarded a contract to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) in order to study the Russian TED's technology. In order to fulfill this a few steps should be made: (1) potential specifications and configurations should be defined for use of TED's in Protein Crystal Growing (PCG) thermal control hardware; and (2) work closely with the identified Russian source to define and identify potential Russian TED's to exceed the performance of available domestic TED's. Based on the data from Russia, it is possible to make plans for further steps such as buying and testing high performance TED's. To accomplish this goal two subcontracts have been released. One subcontract to Automated Sciences Group (ASG) located in Huntsville, AL and one to the International Center for Advanced Studies 'Cosmos' located in Moscow, Russia.

Aksamentov, Valery↗

Fifth Report of the NASA Advisory Council Task Force on the Shuttle-Mir Rendezvous and Docking Missions

The NASA Advisory Council Task Force on the Shuttle-Mir rendezvous and docking missions examine a number of specific issues related to the Shuttle-Mir program. Three teams composed of Task Force members and technical advisors were formed to address the follow issues: preliminary results from STS-71 and the status of preparations for STS-74; NASA's presence in Russia; and NASA's automated data processing and telecommunications (ADP/T) infrastructure in Russia. The three review team reports have been included in the fifth report of the Task Force.

Source record↗

SAMS Acceleration Measurements on Mir from November 1995 to March 1996

The NASA Microgravity Science and Applications Division (MSAD) sponsors science experiments on a variety of microgravity carriers, including Orbiter missions and Russia's Mir space station. The MSAD sponsors the Space Acceleration Measurement System (SAMS) at the NASA Lewis Research Center (LERC) to support these science experiments by providing acceleration measurements to characterize the microgravity environment to which the experiments were exposed. The LeRC Principal Investigator Microgravity Services (PIMS) project supports principal investigations of microgravity science experiments as they evaluate the effects of varying acceleration levels on their experiments. In 1994, a SAMS unit was installed on the Mir space station. In a manner similar to Orbiter mission support, the SAMS unit supports science experiments from the U.S. and Russia by measuring the microgravity environment during experiment operations. Previous reports have summarized the SAMS data acquired during the period from September 1994 to November 1995. During the time period from November 1995 to March 1996, the primary SAMS-supported experiment was a Protein Crystal Growth (PCG) experiment. SAMS data were obtained during the PCG operations on Mir in accordance with the requirements specified by the PCG Principal Investigator. Also included in this data are mission events of interest, such as the undocking of STS-74 from Mir (November 1995) and the docking of Atlantis (STS-76) to Mir in March 1996. This report presents an overview of the SAMS data recorded in the interval from November 1995 to March 1996.

DeLombard, Richard↗