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Strategic Analyses and Assessments Office Annual Report 2023

The past year has seen a significant increase in focus on strategic issues with the continued aggression by Russia, the rapid expansion of China’s military—particularly their nuclear capabilities, North Korea’s rapid improvements in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology, and the increase in Iranian fuel enrichment. The U.S. continues to modernize Nuclear Command Control and Communication and all three legs of its nuclear Triad—Columbia-class submarines, Sentinel ICBMs, and B-21 bombers—for the Department of Defense (DOD). At the same time, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is updating its stockpile, producing the B61-12, the new B61-13, the W88 Alteration, the W87-1—with new pits, and the W80-4. This rework of the nuclear enterprise represents the most aggressive expansion of our capabilities and infrastructure in the modern era. At the same time, the Strategic Posture Commission completed its report to Congress and reported that the current modernization program, although clearly necessary, is insufficient to meet the threats that are emerging.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Part 1: Nuclear Mis- and Disinformation and Impacts to the American Public

Russia’s nuclear saber rattling throughout the war in Ukraine, reports of China’s increasing nuclear modernization, and the 2023 release of Oppenheimer has reignited in the public talk of nuclear weapons. With the increasing prevalence of conversation around nuclear weapons comes increasing opportunity for mis- or disinformation to spread about them and the nuclear enterprise (NE). Mis- and disinformation are not new phenomena. However, the speed and reach offered by current digital communications technology is novel. What are the impacts of misinformation or disinformation about nuclear weapons to the American public?

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Director's Strategic Resilience Initiative

The Director’s Strategic Resilience Initiative was created late in 2019 in recognition of the changing geo-political climate. The renewed strategic competition between Russia, China, and the United States, noted in the 2018 National Defense Strategy and the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, put great power rivalry and competition at the forefront of national security considerations. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s March 1, 2018, speech and China’s October 1, 2019, National Day Military Parade, underscored the nuclear dimensions of this new strategic competition. Accompanying this changed strategic environment are rapid advances in an expansive array of relevant technological sectors including affordable and comprehensive global communication and reconnaissance assets, autonomous vehicles, quantum computing, advanced manufacturing, and artificial intelligence.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Fusion Materials Semiannual Progress Report for the Period Ending December 31, 2023

This is the seventy-fifth in a series of semiannual technical progress reports on fusion materials science activity supported by the Fusion Energy Sciences Program of the U.S. Department of Energy. It covers the period ending December 31, 2023. This report focuses on research addressing the effects on materials properties and performance of exposure to the neutronic, thermal and chemical environments anticipated in the chambers of fusion experiments and energy systems. This research is a major element of the national effort to establish the materials knowledge base for an economically and environmentally attractive fusion energy source. Research activities on issues related to the interaction of materials with plasmas are reported separately. The results reported are the products of a national effort involving a number of national laboratories and universities. A large fraction of this work, particularly in relation to fission reactor irradiations, is carried out collaboratively with partners in Japan, Russia, and the European Union. The purpose of this series of reports is to provide a working technical record for the use of program participants, and to provide a means of communicating the efforts of fusion materials scientists to the broader fusion community, both nationally and worldwide.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Delicate Balance Redux: The Role of Nuclear Forces, Damage Limitation and Uncertainty in Future U.S.-China Crises

What is the impact of damage limitation capabilities like counterforce and missile defenses on deterrence, when their efficacy in stopping an adversary nuclear attack is uncertain? This is a key unanswered question to understand “how much is enough” for the United States to deter China and Russia in future nuclear crises. In this paper we extend an established, single move game theory model to capture the dynamics of two players in a nuclear crisis having varying damage limitation capabilities with uncertain effectiveness. Our model formalizes the logic of the “delicate balance” school of deterrence, which states that leverage in a crisis is driven by the risk each player can take with their combined strategic forces, and that those risks carry uncertainty as nuclear forces are hard to deliver against technologically advanced adversaries. Our model shows that damage limitation capabilities—even those with significant uncertainty around them like cyber or electronic warfare—can drive bargaining outcomes in an array of nuclear crises. We then apply these bargaining outcomes to the expected U.S.-China strategic balance as China builds out its nuclear force through 2035. We apply published force exchange models to determine the expected damage each side will be able to deliver, and we use these values to determine the likelihood that the U.S. can prevail in crises of varying stakes. Last, we show that U.S. policymakers have an array of options to improve future bargaining outcomes, evaluating how additional nuclear forces trade against improvements in damage limitation.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Summary Report of the Technical Meeting on International Network of Nuclear Reaction Data Centres IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria

This report summarizes the IAEA Technical Meeting on the International Network of Nuclear Reaction Data Centres held at the IAEA Headquarters in Vienna, Austria from 14 to 17 May 2024. The meeting was attended by 26 participants representing 13 cooperative Centres from eight Member States (China, Hungary, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Ukraine and USA) and two International Organisations (NEA, IAEA). A summary of the meeting is given in this report along with the conclusions and actions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Long-term Moisture Adsorption in Packaged Plutonium Oxide

In 2018, the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE-NNSA) began implementing dilute and dispose to remove 34 metric tons (MT) of surplus weapons grade plutonium from the US stockpile. Under this plan, surplus plutonium material is converted into plutonium oxide (PuO 2 ) before being stored in metal containers and sent to the DOE Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The dilute and dispose project was implemented as a more cost-effective method for abiding by the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement (PMDA) between the USA and Russia, as compared to producing mixed oxide fuel (MOX). The PMDA was originally signed in 2000 and amended in 2010.2 The disassembly of pits and conversion to PuO 2 as part of dilute and dispose is carried out through the Advanced Recovery and Integrated Extraction System (ARIES) developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The dilute portion of dilute and dispose is carried out at Savannah River Site (SRS). With this program in place, it is necessary to ensure the safe, long-term storage of the PuO 2 generated during this process until final disposal at WIPP is accomplished.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of Rooftop Solar Potential in Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, and Efficacy of High-Resolution 3D Data Digital Twins [Slides]

NREL evaluated rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) siting opportunities in the cities of Chernihiv and Lviv, Ukraine, leveraging very-high-resolution 3D elevation data to calculate technical potential. The study assessed total rooftop solar capacity and annual energy production. In Chernihiv and Lviv, 116,503 buildings were analyzed for their rooftop solar potential. The buildings in the study areas include a mixture of residential, commercial, and industrial buildings, characterized by diverse roof shapes and sizes. The total estimated rooftop solar capacity is 332 MWDC in Chernihiv and 873 MWDC in Lviv with annual energy production up to 376.2 GWhDC in Chernihiv and 995.5 GWhDC in Lviv. This accounting provides a clear estimate of the potential rooftop solar installations that could be realized under optimal conditions, considering both technical constraints and the geographic distribution of available rooftop space. Related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, NREL estimates loss from buildings damaged or destroyed of 2,754 buildings, 20.15 MWDC of capacity, and 22,869 MWhDC of annual energy production in Chernihiv as well as a loss of 1,316 buildings, 34.49 MWDC of capacity, and 39,369 MWhDC of annual energy production in Lviv. The study also assessed the feasibility of adapting this methodology on a national scale using either simulated digital surface models (DSMs) or a digital twin approach. While the very-high-resolution DSM provided more precise results, the simulated DSM demonstrated reasonable accuracy for broader applications in modeling aggregated distributed solar supply. The feasibility of using a digital twin for Ukraine's national rooftop solar potential is considered promising, with certain limitations in areas with highly variable building stock and heavy war damage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fusion Materials Semiannual Progress Report for the Period Ending June 30, 2024

This is the seventy-sixth in a series of semiannual technical progress reports on fusion materials science activity supported by the Fusion Energy Sciences Program of the U.S. Department of Energy. It covers the period ending June 30, 2024. This report focuses on research addressing the effects on materials properties and performance of exposure to the neutronic, thermal and chemical environments anticipated in the chambers of fusion experiments and energy systems. This research is a major element of the national effort to establish the materials knowledge base for an economically and environmentally attractive fusion energy source. Research activities on issues related to the interaction of materials with plasmas are reported separately. The results reported are the products of a national effort involving a number of national laboratories and universities. A large fraction of this work, particularly in relation to fission reactor irradiations, is carried out collaboratively with partners in Japan, Russia, and the European Union. The purpose of this series of reports is to provide a working technical record for the use of program participants, and to provide a means of communicating the efforts of fusion materials scientists to the broader fusion community, both nationally and worldwide. This report has been compiled by Stephanie Melton, Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Her efforts, and the efforts of the many persons who made technical contributions, are gratefully acknowledged.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022

The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Project 2.8: Biological Specimen Repository for the Mayak Project

Curation of the existing specimens, including Standard Operating Procedures: The Southern Urals Biophysics Institute (SUBI) will continue to manage the day-to-day operations of the biorepository, but will have to assume the financial costs of maintaining and purchasing equipment such as freezers; Standard Operating Procedures are already in place for all aspects of the operations, and the Georgetown University team will be available on a voluntary and ad hoc basis to answer any technical questions in the future. Acquisition and tracking of new specimens: SUBI will decide on the collection of new tissues and blood samples in the future, and on what scale, depending on available resources and research needs. The Georgetown University team is willing to provide advice on a voluntary and ad hoc basis. Procedures for receiving and approving specimen requests from users: SUBI can take over this function; Chris Loffredo and other qualified research scientists at Georgetown University would be willing to serve as Tissue Review Committee members on a voluntary and ad hoc basis. Biospecimens remaining at Georgetown University: pursuant to the original terms of the Biospecimen Transfer Agreement between SUBI and Georgetown University, all unused portions of specimens (FFPE blocks, slides, and frozen tissues) will be returned to SUBI at the conclusion of the approved scientific research for which they were transferred. It was anticipated that the return shipment of biospecimens would occur in the fall of 2023. However, at this time, due to international developments, there are no shipping companies who can provide such deliveries to Russia. For now, the biospecimens can remain at Georgetown University where they are stored at the Genomics and Epigenomics Shared Resource. There have not been any storage costs to date, but this could change in the future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Year Electric Field Study at the North Slope of Alaska (OYESNSA) Field Campaign Report

The Global Electric Circuit (GEC) of the atmosphere provides a unique perspective on Earth’s changing climate. Monitoring this global electrical signature provides details of the global nature of electrified clouds and thunderstorms. The North Slope of Alaska (NSA) is a unique location for collecting these electric field measurements. Besides being at the opposite pole from many previous electric field measurements taken at Russia’s Vostok station in Antarctica, this site provides a rare opportunity to use other instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s NSA observatory at Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow), such as the Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR), upward-facing micropulse lidar (MPL), vertical profile of meteorological measures, and other aerosol measurements. Since 2017, Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi (TAMUCC) has established an observational instrument package, including CS110 electric fields and anemometer, at ARM’s NSA observatory at Utqiaġvik. This enabled the unique opportunity to not only provide information about the global signature of the GEC, but also the physical inputs to the local electric field, by analyzing the physical properties of the simultaneous cloud, wind, and aerosol properties occurring with the vertical electric field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-Year Electric Field Study at the North Slope of Alaska (OYESNSA) Field Campaign Report

The Global Electric Circuit (GEC) of the atmosphere provides a unique perspective on Earth’s changing climate. Monitoring this global electrical signature provides details of the global nature of electrified clouds and thunderstorms. The North Slope of Alaska (NSA) is a unique location for collecting these electric field measurements. Besides being at the opposite pole from many previous electric field measurements taken at Russia’s Vostok station in Antarctica, this site provides a rare opportunity to use other instruments at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s NSA observatory at Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow), such as the Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR), upward-facing micropulse lidar (MPL), vertical profile of meteorological measures, and other aerosol measurements. Since 2017, Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi (TAMUCC) has established an observational instrument package, including CS110 electric fields and anemometer, at ARM’s NSA observatory at Utqiaġvik. This enabled the unique opportunity to not only provide information about the global signature of the GEC, but also the physical inputs to the local electric field, by analyzing the physical properties of the simultaneous cloud, wind, and aerosol properties occurring with the vertical electric field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whither the genus Caldicellulosiruptor and the order Thermoanaerobacterales: phylogeny, taxonomy, ecology, and phenotype

The order Thermoanaerobacterales currently consists of fermentative anaerobic bacteria, including the genus Caldicellulosiruptor. Caldicellulosiruptor are represented by thirteen species; all, but one, have closed genome sequences. Interest in these extreme thermophiles has been motivated not only by their high optimal growth temperatures (≥70°C), but also by their ability to hydrolyze polysaccharides including, for some species, both xylan and microcrystalline cellulose. Caldicellulosiruptor species have been isolated from geographically diverse thermal terrestrial environments located in New Zealand, China, Russia, Iceland and North America. Evidence of their presence in other terrestrial locations is apparent from metagenomic signatures, including volcanic ash in permafrost. Here, phylogeny and taxonomy of the genus Caldicellulosiruptor was re-examined in light of new genome sequences. Based on genome analysis of 15 strains, a new order, Caldicellulosiruptorales, is proposed containing the family Caldicellulosiruptoraceae, consisting of two genera, Caldicellulosiruptor and Anaerocellum. Furthermore, the order Thermoanaerobacterales also was re-assessed, using 91 genome-sequenced strains, and should now include the family Thermoanaerobacteraceae containing the genera Thermoanaerobacter, Thermoanaerobacterium, Caldanaerobacter, the family Caldanaerobiaceae containing the genus Caldanaerobius, and the family Calorimonaceae containing the genus Calorimonas. A main outcome of ANI/AAI analysis indicates the need to reclassify several previously designated species in the Thermoanaerobacterales and Caldicellulosiruptorales by condensing them into strains of single species. Comparative genomics of carbohydrate-active enzyme inventories suggested differentiating phenotypic features, even among strains of the same species, reflecting available nutrients and ecological roles in their native biotopes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Observations show that the concentrations of Arctic sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols have declined since the early 1980s. Previous studies have reported that reducing sulfate aerosols potentially contributed to the recent rapid Arctic warming. In this study, a global aerosol–climate model (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) equipped with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST) is applied to quantify the source apportionment of aerosols in the Arctic from 16 source regions and the role of aerosol variations in affecting changes in the Arctic surface temperature from 1980 to 2018. The CAM5-EAST simulated surface concentrations of sulfate and BC in the Arctic had a decrease of 43% and 23%, respectively, in 2014–2018 relative to 1980–1984 mainly due to the reduction of emissions from Europe, Russia and local Arctic sources. Increases in emissions from South and East Asia led to positive trends in Arctic sulfate and BC in the upper troposphere. All aerosol radiative impacts are considered including aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as black carbon deposition on snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Within the Arctic, sulfate reductions caused a top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming of 0.11 and 0.25 W m -2 through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, respectively. While the changes in Arctic atmospheric BC has little impact on local radiative forcing, the decrease in BC in snow and ice led to a net cooling of 0.05 W m -2 . By applying climate sensitivity factors for different latitudinal bands, global changes in sulfate and BC during 2014–2018 (with respect to 1980–1984) exerted a +0.088 and 0.057 K Arctic surface warming, respectively, through aerosol–radiation interactions. Through aerosol–cloud interactions, the sulfate reduction caused an Arctic warming of +0.193 K between the two time periods. The weakened BC effect on snow–ice albedo led to an Arctic surface cooling of -0.041 K. The changes in atmospheric sulfate and BC outside the Arctic produced a total Arctic warming of +0.25 K, the majority of which is due to the midlatitude changes in radiative forcing. Our results suggest that changes in aerosols over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have a larger impact on Arctic temperature than other regions through enhanced poleward heat transport. The combined total effects of sulfate and BC produced an Arctic surface warming of +0.297 K, explaining approximately 20% of the observed Arctic warming since the early 1980s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global source apportionment of aerosols into major emission regions and sectors over 1850–2017

Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursor gases have changed significantly in the past few decades around the world. In this study, the Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (EAST) system is merged into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) to quantify the variations in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations, source contributions, and their subsequent radiative impact in four major emission regions across the globe during 1850–1980, 1980–2010, and 2010–2017. In North America and Europe, changes in anthropogenic PM 2.5 were mainly caused by changes in emissions from local energy and industrial sectors. The local industrial sector caused the largest increase in PM 2.5 in East Asia during 1980–2010 and decrease during 2010–2017. In South Asia, the increase in energy-related emissions dominated the rise in PM 2.5 levels during 1980–2017. During 1850–1980, the increases in emissions from North America contributed to the increase in the European PM 2.5 burden by 1.7 mg m -2 and the sources from the Europe were also responsible for the PM 2.5 burden increase in East Asia and South Asia by about 1.0 mg m -2 . During 1980–2010, East Asia contributed to an increase of 0.4–0.6 mg m -2 in the PM 2.5 burden in North America and Europe, while South Asia contributed about 0.3 mg m -2 . During 2010–2017, the contributions from East Asia to the PM 2.5 burdens in the North America, Europe, and South Asia declined by 0.3–0.6 mg m -2 due to the clean air actions in China, while the contributions from South Asia still increased due to the continuous increase in emissions in South Asia. The historical changes in aerosols had an impact on effective radiative forcing through aerosol–radiation interactions (ERF ari ). During 1980–2010, a decline in North American aerosols resulted in a positive ERF ari change (warming effect) in Europe and a decline in aerosols in Europe caused a warming effect in Russia and northern China. The changes in ERF ari from the increase and decrease in aerosols in China during 1980–2010 and 2010–2017, respectively, are comparable in magnitude. The continuous aerosol increases in South Asia from 1980 to 2017 resulted in negative ERF ari (cooling) changes in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and southern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Special Observing Period (SOP) data for the Year of Polar Prediction site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP)

The rapid changes occurring in the polar regions require an improved understanding of the processes that are driving these changes. At the same time, increased human activities such as marine navigation, resource exploitation, aviation, commercial fishing, and tourism require reliable and relevant weather information. One of the primary goals of the World Meteorological Organization's Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) project is to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at high latitudes. During YOPP, two Canadian “supersites” were commissioned and equipped with new ground-based instruments for enhanced meteorological and system process observations. Additional pre-existing supersites in Canada, the United States, Norway, Finland, and Russia also provided data from ongoing long-term observing programs. These supersites collected a wealth of observations that are well suited to address YOPP objectives. In order to increase data useability and station interoperability, novel Merged Observatory Data Files (MODFs) were created for the seven supersites over two Special Observing Periods (February to March 2018 and July to September 2018). All observations collected at the supersites were compiled into this standardized NetCDF MODF format, simplifying the process of conducting pan-Arctic NWP verification and process evaluation studies. This paper describes the seven Arctic YOPP supersites, their instrumentation, data collection and processing methods, the novel MODF format, and examples of the observations contained therein. MODFs comprise the observational contribution to the model intercomparison effort, termed YOPP site Model Intercomparison Project (YOPPsiteMIP). All YOPPsiteMIP MODFs are publicly accessible via the YOPP Data Portal (Whitehorse: https://doi.org/10.21343/a33e-j150, Huang et al., 2023a; Iqaluit: https://doi.org/10.21343/yrnf-ck57, Huang et al., 2023b; Sodankylä: https://doi.org/10.21343/m16p-pq17, O'Connor, 2023; Utqiagvik: https://doi.org/10.21343/a2dx-nq55, Akish and Morris, 2023c; Tiksi: https://doi.org/10.21343/5bwn-w881, Akish and Morris, 2023b; Ny-Ålesund: https://doi.org/10.21343/y89m-6393, Holt, 2023; and Eureka: https://doi.org/10.21343/r85j-tc61, Akish and Morris, 2023a), which is hosted by MET Norway, with corresponding output from NWP models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗