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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Molecular microbial diversity of a spacecraft assembly facility

In ongoing investigations to map and archive the microbial footprints in various components of the spacecraft and its accessories, we have examined the microbial populations of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Spacecraft Assembly Facility (JPL-SAF). Witness plates made up of spacecraft materials, some painted with spacecraft qualified paints, were exposed for approximately 7 to 9 months at JPL-SAF and examined the particulate materials collected for the incidence of total cultivable aerobic heterotrophs and heat-tolerant (80 degrees C for 15-min.) spore-formers. The results showed that the witness plates coated with spacecraft qualified paints attracted more dust particles than the non-coated stainless steel witness plates. Among the four paints tested, witness plates coated with NS43G accumulated the highest number of particles, and hence attracted more cultivable microbes. The conventional microbiological examination revealed that the JPL-SAF harbors mainly Gram-positive microbes and mostly spore-forming Bacillus species. Most of the isolated microbes were heat resistant to 80 degrees C and proliferate at 60 degrees C. The phylogenetic relationships among 23 cultivable heat-tolerant microbes were examined using a battery of morphological, physiological, molecular and chemotaxonomic characterizations. By 16S rDNA sequence analysis, the isolates fell into seven clades: Bacillus licheniformis, B. pumilus, B. cereus, B. circulans, Staphylococcus capitis, Planococcus sp. and Micrococcus lylae. In contrast to the cultivable approach, direct DNA isolation, cloning and 16S rDNA sequencing analysis revealed equal representation of both Gram-positive and Gram-negative microorganisms.

Industry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Radiocarbon and Thermo-optical Measurements to Quantify Source Contributions for Aircraft Engine Particulate Emissions

Recent technological advancements in aircraft engine technology and fuel sources have promising potential for reducing particulate emissions from aircraft engines. During the 2022 Boeing ecoDemonstrator ground-based field campaign, particle and trace gas emissions were sampled for four different fuels, including 100% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), petroleum-based Jet A fuel, petroleum-based Jet A low sulfur fuel, and a SAF blend. Particulate emissions were collected on quartz microfiber filters and analysed for their radiocarbon content and their elemental carbon (EC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations. In addition, the radiocarbon content of Jet A fuel, SAF, and aircraft engine oil was also measured. We used the radiocarbon content of the particulate emissions samples and source end members to quantify the relative contribution from engine oil and fuel to carbonaceous aerosol emissions. The results from this study can be used to understand how the implementation of technological advancements in aircraft engine technology and fuel sources will likely impact future aircraft particulate emissions.

Liz Wiggins↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Implementation of a Compact Self-Aligned Focusing Schlieren System for Measurements with the SBLT-II Flight Test Article

Previous flight testing of a supersonic natural laminar flow airfoil on the NASA F-15Baircraft showed evidence of multiple impinging shocks (shock train) of unknown origin, which generated sufficient crossflow on the airfoil to affect the primary measurement goal of transition location. A compact self-aligned focusing schlieren (SAFS) system is being developed to visualize this shock train on the forward surface of the Supersonic Boundary Layer Transition - PhaseII (SBLT-II) flight test article. Details of the design of the SAFS flight system, the constraints imposed by the imaging pod that will be mounted to the F-15B aircraft, preliminary laboratory results obtained with the system, and challenges associated with integrating the imaging system into the aircraft are presented. The resulting schlieren images obtained from this flight test will allow for a three-dimensional reconstruction of the unknown shock structure, validating the use of SAFS for flight testing.

Joshua M. Weisberger↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Self-Aligned Focusing Schlieren and OH Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence Flow Visualization in a Dual-Mode Scramjet

Ahigh-speed self-aligned focusing schlieren (SAFS) system was used to visualize density gradients in and around the cavity flameholder of the combustor section of the University of Virginia Supersonic Combustion Facility (UVASCF). Images with this system were acquired at a framing rate of 110 kHz with no fuel injection, with fuel injection but no flame, and for fuel injection with combustion corresponding to a global equivalence ratio of 𝜙 = 0.18. Images with an air throttle in operation to modify the shock train location with fuel injection and with flame were also acquired. Simultaneous OH planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) images were also acquired at a framing rate of 20 Hz. Results obtained with both visualization techniques are compared to one another to highlight how SAFS can complement more advanced flow visualization techniques and resolve dynamic behavior that may not otherwise be captured. Both proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) analysis techniques are applied to the SAFS image sequences to identify coherent periodic structures for the runs with fuel injection and combustion.

Brett F Bathel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extraction of Oil From Camelina Seeds Using Liquefied Dimethyl Ether

With a changing climate and a push for net-zero carbon emissions, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is gaining interest worldwide. Due to its compatibility with current infrastructure and potential to reduce emissions by up to 94%, SAF has been identified as the best near-term opportunity to decrease carbon emissions in the aviation industry. SAF can be produced from various renewable feedstocks, with Camelina sativa (L.) seeds standing out due to their high oil content. Conventionally, the oil is extracted using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), which involves the pressurized heating of water and biomass up to 400°C, making it incredibly energy-intensive. Conversely, liquefied dimethyl ether (DME) extraction operates at room temperature and is capable of near 100% solvent recycling. In this work, we propose the use of DME extraction as a substitute for HTL, hypothesizing that it can overcome the challenges of current oil extraction methods while maintaining the same oil yields.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multisite Field Evaluation of Oil Accumulation and Agronomic Performance in Grain and Sweet Sorghums Engineered for Lipid Hyperaccumulation

Oil sorghum (OS) has been developed by engineering grain (TX430) and sweet (Ramada) genetic backgrounds to accumulate triacylglycerols (TAG) in vegetative tissues as an energy-dense feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and other biofuels. This study evaluated two TX430 OS lines (TxHO-2, TxHO-3) and two Ramada OS lines (RmHO-1, RmHO-2) alongside wild-type (WT) lines in NE and IL over 2 years (2023–2024) to quantify genotype × environment effects on agronomic performance and TAG accumulation. Across four environments, TX430 OS lines showed average TAG concentrations of 15.0 g kg −1 in leaves and 12.8 g kg −1 in stems, approximately 19-fold higher than WT. Ramada OS lines accumulated 26.1 g kg −1 in leaves and 12.3 g kg −1 in stems, approximately 25-fold and 13-fold increases over WT, respectively. OS lines in TX430 exhibited an 18% reduction in biomass (8.4 vs. 9.9 Mg ha −1 for WT), while Ramada OS lines had similar WT biomass (18.3 vs. 19.9 Mg ha −1 for WT). Among TX430 OS lines, TxHO-2 achieved the highest TAG yield (190 kg ha −1 ), while RmHO-1 led the Ramada lines (335 kg ha −1 ) due to higher biomass and similar TAG concentration. Enhanced TAG accumulation increased N, P, and K removal in TX430 lines but not in Ramada lines. Structural carbohydrate and ash concentration were unaffected. Overall, results confirm vegetative lipid accumulation as a viable strategy for high-biomass sorghum, supporting its potential as a dual-purpose feedstock for SAF. Future work should focus on minimizing biomass yield penalties and improving nutrient use efficiency in oil sorghum systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fleet-Level Fuel Impact of Hybrid-Electric Aircraft in United States

Here, this paper examines the impact of two potential solutions for increasing fuel efficiency and reducing emissions in commercial aviation: hybrid-electric propulsion and the use of drop-in synthetic aviation fuels (SAFs). The authors modeled three representative aircraft employed in the U.S. domestic market: a 70-seat regional turboprop, a 100-seat airliner, and a 180-seat airliner. These aircraft were retrofitted with hybrid-electric propulsion systems that integrate batteries and electric motors to provide additional torque to the propeller or fan. The authors explored various technological scenarios involving different battery specific energies, electric motor specific powers, and other relevant parameters. Flight performance models were used to analyze the range–payload capabilities of these new hybrid-electric aircraft and to compare them with their conventional counterparts. Subsequently, the authors virtually deployed the hybrid-electric aircraft on 2019 U.S. domestic commercial flights to assess the types and lengths of flights that could be serviced by this new fleet. We then compared the resulting fuel consumption, energy use, and emissions with those of a conventional fleet using a combination of jet fuel and SAF.

SAF↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Pyrolysis Oil to Advanced Biographite Anode: Unravelling Biocoke Structural Evolution and Delayed Coking Effects

Catalytic graphitization of biomass-derived carbon offers a promising route to produce biographite as a sustainable alternative to petroleum-based synthetic graphite for lithium-ion battery (LIB) anodes. This study investigates the physicochemical properties of biocokes produced from pyrolysis oil at carbonization temperatures ranging from 150 degrees C to 500 degrees C. Using an iron (Fe) catalyst, graphitization was performed at 1500 degrees C, significantly lower than the ~3000 degrees C required for conventional synthetic graphite. The effects of introducing an intermediate-temperature hold (400 degrees C-600 degrees C) prior to graphitization were evaluated, simulating a "delayed coking" process to enable the coproduction of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). Chemical structure evolution during biocoke formation was analyzed, and proposed mechanisms are presented. Biographites produced via the delayed coking pathway exhibited high crystallinity and excellent electrochemical performance in both half-cell and full-cell LIB configurations. The full cells exhibited an initial discharge capacity close to the theoretical capacity of the NMC622 cathode (175 mAh/g at 4.2 V), and high capacity retention (~88%) after 150 cycles. Notably, the graphitic and electrochemical properties remained stable across the range of intermediate hold temperatures. These findings provide a foundation for optimizing temperature parameters in delayed coking systems to enable scalable, integrated production of biographite and SAFs from pyrolysis oil.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing technologies for lignin-based jet fuel production in aqueous phase

Integrating lignin into a cellulosic ethanol plant for the co-production of lignin-based jet fuel (LJF) in aqueous phase offers a significant opportunity to boost operational efficiency, economic viability, carbon conversion, and the overall sustainability of biofuel and chemical production. LJF is lignin-structure-based jet fuel blendstocks primarily composed of alkyl-substituted mono-, bi-, and tri-cyclohexanes. It exhibits high energy density, potential for low emissions, and favourable blend characteristics that comply with drop-in specifications. An overview of lignin feedstock, catalytic processes, LJF chemical compositions, fuel properties tests, and techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) indicate that (1) the reactivity of lignin plays a crucial role in its structure transformation to LJF molecules; (2) catalytic processing of lignin to LJF can occur through a simultaneous depolymerization and hydrodeoxygenation process, bypassing the intermediate step of producing and upgrading lignin-derived oil; (3) LJF's uniqueness molecules making it more promising for high energy content and low emission jet fuel properties for next generation sustainable aviation fuel (SAF); and (4) TEA and LCA demonstrate that LJF is not only potentially cost-effective but also offers favourable carbon footprint compared to other SAFs. In conclusion, this review highlights the most recent advancements in LJF technology, along with the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead in fulfilling its potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A simultaneous depolymerization and hydrodeoxygenation process to produce lignin-based jet fuel in continuous flow reactor

Economical production of lignin-based jet fuel (LJF) can improve the sustainability of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) as well as can reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions. However, the challenge lies in converting technical lignin polymer from biorefinery directly to jet fuel in a continuous operation. In this work, we demonstrate a simultaneous depolymerization and hydrodeoxygenation (SDHDO) process to produce lignin-based jet fuel from the alkali corn stover lignin (ACSL) using engineered Ru-HY-60-MI catalyst in a continuous flow reactor at first time. The maximum carbon yield of LJF of 17.9wt% was obtained, and it comprised of 60.2wt% monocycloalkanes, and 21.6wt% polycycloalkanes. Catalyst characterization of Ru-HY-60-MI suggested there was no significant change in HY zeolite structure and its crystallinity after catalyst engineering. Catalyst characterizations performed post the SDHDO experiments indicate presence of carbon and K content in the catalyst. K content presence in the spent catalyst was due to K + ion was exchanged between lignin solution and HY-60 while carbon presence validated the SDHDO chemistry on the catalyst surface. Tier a fuel property testing indicates that LJF production using SDHDO chemistry can offer SAF with high compatibility, good sealing properties, low emissions, and high energy density for aircraft.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost-effective valorization of 2,3-butanediol to high-value chemicals and jet fuel

Here, this work outlines an optimized process for converting 2,3-butanediol (BDO) into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and C4 chemicals. BDO is reactively separated from fermentation broth by forming dioxolanes, which are converted to isobutyraldehyde, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), and 1,3-butadiene. These intermediates are reduced and dehydrated over Cu/ZSM-5 to form alkenes, which can be oligomerized and hydrotreated to jet-range alkanes. Previous BDO-dioxolane-alkene processes are limited by the requirement for a continuous aldehyde source for dioxolane formation. Brønsted acidic zeolites catalyze dioxolane deacetalization to form isobutyraldehyde and MEK in a >2:1 molar ratio, providing an internal, recyclable aldehyde source. Dioxolane formation optimization was performed to achieve >95% dioxolane yields over Amberlyst-15 and minimize isobutyraldehyde recycle. The overall BDO-dioxolane-fuel process yields an alkane mixture that enables at least a 50% v/v blend with Jet-A. Techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments for this BDO-dioxolane-fuel process yield scenarios with <$2.50 per gallon gas equivalent and >58% reduction in CO2 emissions.

2,3-butanediol↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of soot formation from aviation fuels in laminar counterflow flames

Combustion emissions from aviation contribute to the formation of condensation trail (contrail) that can lead to the formation of anthropogenic cirrus clouds. Ice particles that form contrails are observed to have a linear correlation with soot particle number density. Synthetic aviation fuels (SAFs) offer a promising route to mitigate the production of soot particles while also increasing energy security. Although studies have focused on combustion and spray behavior, the detailed investigation of soot formation processes for different jet fuels and their impact on models for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is not well understood. Moreover, experimental measurements of soot for canonical flames using Synthetic aviation fuels (SAF) for model validation remain scarce. To address this, we use employed the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) detailed soot model based on the discrete sectional method. Additionally, we develop two reduced chemical mechanisms for Jet-A and Alcohol-to-Jet (C1) that are suitable for turbulent flame simulations and couple them with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM). The detailed and reduced model frameworks are validated against experimental measurements of soot volume fraction (ƒ ν ) from a counterflow burner experiment previously reported in the literature. Given the good agreement between modeling results and experimental measurements for the (1) spatial distribution of ƒ ν and (2) the non-linear variation of peak ƒ ν with strain rate, we further investigate the modeled sub-processes (nucleation, condensation, surface growth, and oxidation) using the LLNL model to analyze the assumptions in the reduced model framework. Furthermore, the results indicate a significant contribution from resonant radicals to the surface growth of soot particles, which are not accounted for in the current implementation of HMOM and could help reconcile soot predictions by the reduced model with observations.

Counterflow↗
DOE OSTI2024

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Growing Intermediate Winter Oilseed Feedstocks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production

Ensuring an adequate supply of feedstock is a key challenge to achieving a significant production volume of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs). One promising feedstock for SAFs is intermediate winter oilseeds added to existing crop production as alternatives to the winter fallow period. In this work, three intermediate winter oilseed crops─camelina ( Camelina sativa L. Crantz .), carinata ( Brassica carinata ), and pennycress ( Thlaspi arvense L .)─are evaluated for their life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when harvested and processed into hydroprocessed renewable jet (HRJ). We evaluate solvent extraction (SE) and mechanical pressing as alternative oil extraction methods and examine the impacts of various allocation methods used in the oil extraction process. The GHG emissions reduction potential of camelina-, carinata-, and pennycress-derived HRJs are 50.4%, 65.2%, and 65.7%, respectively, compared to petroleum jet fuel, with SE as an oil extraction method and under mass-based allocation. Combined with the estimated production potential of camelina, carinata, and pennycress as intermediate winter oilseed, 2.5 billion gallons of HRJ can be produced annually, and the total GHG savings could amount to 19.3 million tons when these HRJs replace petroleum jet fuels. In addition, we collect literature information to assess the impacts of these intermediate winter oilseeds on indirect land use change emissions and soil organic carbon sequestration potentials.

camelina↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of vegetative oil sorghum: From lab‐to‐field

Summary Biomass crops engineered to accumulate energy‐dense triacylglycerols (TAG or ‘vegetable oils’) in their vegetative tissues have emerged as potential feedstocks to meet the growing demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Unlike oil palm and oilseed crops, the current commercial sources of TAG, vegetative tissues, such as leaves and stems, only transiently accumulate TAG. In this report, we used grain (Texas430 or TX430) and sugar‐accumulating ‘sweet’ (Ramada) genotypes of sorghum, a high‐yielding, environmentally resilient biomass crop, to accumulate TAG in leaves and stems. We initially tested several gene combinations for a ‘push‐pull‐protect’ strategy. The top TAG‐yielding constructs contained five oil transgenes for a sorghum WRINKLED1 transcription factor (‘push’), a Cuphea viscosissima diacylglycerol acyltransferase (DGAT; ‘pull’), a modified sesame oleosin (‘protect’) and two combinations of specialized Cuphea lysophosphatidic acid acyltransferases and medium‐chain acyl‐acyl carrier protein thioesterases. Though intended to generate oils with medium‐chain fatty acids, engineered lines accumulated oleic acid‐rich oil to amounts of up to 2.5% DW in leaves and 2.0% DW in stems in the greenhouse, 36‐fold and 49‐fold increases relative to wild‐type (WT) plants, respectively. Under field conditions, the top‐performing event accumulated TAG to amount to 5.5% DW in leaves and 3.5% DW in stems, 78‐fold and 58‐fold increases, respectively, relative to WT TX430. Transcriptomic and fluxomic analyses revealed potential bottlenecks for increased TAG accumulation. Overall, our studies highlight the utility of a lab‐to‐field pipeline coupled with systems biology studies to deliver high vegetative oil sorghum for SAF and renewable diesel production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pilot-Scale Algal Oil Production

The main objective of the project is complete: development of a preliminary planning and design for a pilot-scale algal oil cultivation and processing facility, FEL-3 design with -5% / +15% cost estimate accuracy, and conversion of the algal oil to biofuel in an off-site existing bio-oil refinery. The design basis includes 10 tons per day of dried algae cultivated with CO 2 supplied by direct air capture, electricity supplied solar power, well water supply, zero liquid discharge, off-site extraction, and off-site conversion of oil to biofuel. The design and permitting package is an important milestone in the path to commercialization of algal biofuels and bioproducts as it provides the preliminary design, permitting path, long-term land lease, planning documents, and team needed for success in future engineering, construction, start-up and operations of a pilot-scale farm at a site in Paso Robles, CA. Outcomes of the business assessment include (i) identification of a product spectrum for economical algal biofuels using co-products with markets that are commensurate with production of 6-7 billion gallons per year of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), renewable diesel, and renewable gasoline, (ii) a path toward near-term contribution of algae oil to SAF, and (iii) an approach for long-term operation of a pilot-scale farm.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synergistic Thermo-Microbial-Electrochemical (T-MEC) Approach for Drop-In Fuel Production from Wet Waste

This project successfully developed and demonstrated the synergistic thermo-microbial-electrochemical (T-MEC) process, converting food waste into sustainable biofuels while achieving self-sustaining wastewater treatment and hydrogen production. By integrating hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) and microbial electrolysis cells (MECs), the project advanced waste-to-fuel technology and expanded the understanding of sustainable waste valorization. It established a scalable framework for achieving high carbon efficiency, effective pollutant removal, and energy recovery, showcasing the potential of combining biological, thermal, and electrochemical systems to optimize resource recovery and reduce environmental impacts. The project demonstrated the technical effectiveness of the T-MEC process, achieving over 50% improvement in carbon efficiency and reducing waste processing costs by more than 25% compared to anaerobic digestion (AD). The HTL pilot reactor processed food waste at 90 kg/h, producing up to 200 L/day of biocrude oil with high conversion efficiency. A critical desalting step in pretreatment prevented catalyst fouling, enabling efficient hydrotreating with 100% deoxygenation and denitrogenation and sulfur reduction to <15 ppm. This positioned the kerosene fraction as a strong candidate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The MECs achieved rapid startup, 86.4% COD removal, and hydrogen production rates of 1.8 L H 2 /L cat /day, among the highest recorded for pilot-scale systems. The integrated process achieved 65% carbon efficiency to biocrude and 58% to finished fuels, outperforming AD's 41% and 33% efficiencies for biogas and natural gas vehicle fuels. System analysis highlighted economic potential, with minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) decreasing from $\$$25/GGE at 5 tpd to $\$$10/GGE at 500 tpd due to economies of scale. Future work will focus on reducing MEC material and membrane costs, enhancing performance through higher current densities, and creating tailored operational strategies for diverse feedstocks. Optimization of the integrated system will improve scalability and feasibility, positioning the T-MEC process as a competitive solution for converting wet waste into sustainable fuels and clean water. Beyond its technical and economic achievements, the project offers significant public benefits. The T-MEC process provides a sustainable alternative to landfilling and incineration, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and conserving resources. Converting waste into SAF and renewable fuels supports decarbonization in the transportation sector, advancing energy independence and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. Additionally, the process minimizes environmental pollutants, transforming them into valuable products like hydrogen and fuels, contributing to a cleaner and more sustainable future.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Geodetic evidence of the seismic potential at Parkfield, California

The average rates of line-length change and the rates of the shallow fault slip observed near Parkfield, California, were used to estimate the slip rate at depth on the San Andreas fault (SAF), using the Matsu'ura et al. (1986) procedure to model the aseismic deformation as a perturbation to steady block motion across the SAF. Five different models were tested against the data, with one model, featuring a nearly monotonic transition from creeping behavior on the northwest to locked behavior on the southeast, found to fit the data acceptably well. It is shown that stored elastic energy southeast of Parkfield could produce an earthquake of magnitude up to 8.0, that would have displacement and rupture length similar to historic earthquakes of the same size.

Sung, Li-Yu↗