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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Response of Inconel 617 superalloy to combined ground-based and STS reentry exposure

Inconel 617 is a nickel-based superalloy which is being considered for heat-shield applications because of its high-temperature strength, good oxidation resistance and high emittance of oxidized surfaces. While the effects of simulated reentry conditions on emittance and oxidation of Inconel 617 have been studied, the combined effects of the ground-based environment with sea salt exposure and the reentry environment have not been evaluated. Experimental results are presented to show the effects of environmental simulation including ground-based and reentry exposure on the emittance and oxidation of Inconel 617. Specimens were exposed to simulated reentry at a surface temperature of 2000 F in the Langley Research Center Hypersonic Materials Environmental Test System (HYMETS) Facility with and without alternate exposures to an atmospheric seashore environment or a laboratory sea salt environment. This paper presents emittance, mass loss, oxide chemistry, and alloy composition data for the specimens.

Clark, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observationally constrained analysis on the distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate in global models

Nitrate plays an important role in the Earth system and air quality. A key challenge in simulating the life cycle of nitrate aerosol in global models is to accurately represent mass size distribution of nitrate aerosol. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), along with Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) phase III models, in simulating spatial distribution of fine-mode nitrate, the mass size distribution of fine- and coarse-mode nitrate, and the gas–aerosol partitioning between nitric acid gas and nitrate, using long-term ground-based observations and measurements from multiple aircraft campaigns. We find that most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 µm) nitrate surface concentration averaged over all sites. The observed nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 and PM 1 / PM 4 ratios are influenced by the relative contribution of fine sulfate or organic particles and coarse dust or sea salt particles. Overall, the ground-based observations give an annual mean surface nitrate PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio of 0.7. Most models underestimate the annual mean PM 2.5 / PM 10 ratio in all regions. There are large spreads in the modeled nitrate PM 1 / PM 4 ratios, which span the full range from 0 to 1. Most models underestimate the surface molar ratio of nitrate to total inorganic nitrate averaged across all sites. Our study indicates the importance of gas–aerosol partition parameterization and the simulation of dust and sea salt in correctly simulating the mass size distribution of nitrate.

Nitrate↗
NASA NTRS2008

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

Liao, Hong↗
NASA NTRS2010

Assessment of Aerosol Distributions from GEOS-5 Using the CALIPSO Feature Mask

A-train sensors such as MODIS, MISR, and CALIPSO are used to determine aerosol properties, and in the process a means of estimating aerosol type (e.g. smoke vs. dust). Correct classification of aerosol type is important for climate assessment, air quality applications, and for comparisons and analysis with aerosol transport models. The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) satellite mission proposed in the NRC Decadal Survey describes a next generation aerosol and cloud suite similar to the current A-train, including a lidar. The future ACE lidar must be able to determine aerosol type effectively in conjunction with modeling activities to achieve ACE objectives. Here we examine the current capabilities of CALIPSO and the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System general circulation model and data assimilation system (GEOS-5), to place future ACE needs in context. The CALIPSO level 2 feature mask includes vertical profiles of aerosol layers classified by type. GEOS-5 provides global 3D aerosol mass for sulfate, sea salt, dust, and black and organic carbon. A GEOS aerosol scene classification algorithm has been developed to provide estimates of aerosol mixtures and extinction profiles along the CALIPSO orbit track. In previous work, initial comparisons between GEOS-5 derived aerosol mixtures and CALIPSO derived aerosol types were presented for July 2007. In general, the results showed that model and lidar derived aerosol types did not agree well in the boundary layer. Agreement was poor over Europe, where CALIPSO indicated the presence of dust and pollution mixtures yet GEOS-5 was dominated by pollution with little dust. Over the ocean in the tropics, the model appeared to contain less sea salt than detected by CALIPSO, yet at high latitudes the situation was reserved. Agreement between CALIPSO and GEOS-5, aerosol types improved above the boundary layer, primarily in dust and smoke dominated regions. At higher altitudes (> 5 km), the model contained aerosol layers not detected by CALIPSO. Here we present new results for a full year study using the new Version 3 CALIPSO data and most recent GEOS-5 model results.

Welton, Ellsworth↗
NASA NTRS2016

Linking Remotely Sensed Aerosol Types to Their Chemical Composition

Aerosol types measured during the Ship-Aircraft Bio-Optical Research (SABOR) experiment are related to GEOS-Chem model chemical composition. The application for this procedure to link model chemical components to aerosol type is desirable for understanding aerosol evolution over time. The Mahalanobis distance (DM) statistic is used to cluster model groupings of five chemical components (organic carbon, black carbon, sea salt, dust and sulfate) in a way analogous to the methods used by Burton et al. [2012] and Russell et al. [2014]. First, model-to-measurement evaluation is performed by collocating vertically resolved aerosol extinction from SABOR High Spectral Resolution LiDAR (HSRL) to the GEOS-Chem nested high-resolution data. Comparisons of modeled-to-measured aerosol extinction are shown to be within 35% +/- 14%. Second, the model chemical components are calculation into five variables to calculate the DM and cluster means and covariances for each HSRL-retrieved aerosol type. The layer variables from the model are aerosol optical depth (AOD) ratios of (i) sea salt and (ii) dust to total AOD, mass ratios of (iii) total carbon (i.e. sum of organic and black carbon) to the sum of total carbon and sulfate (iv) organic carbon to black carbon, and (v) the natural log of the aerosol-to-molecular extinction ratio. Third, the layer variables and at most five out of twenty SABOR flights are used to form the pre-specified clusters for calculating DM and to assign an aerosol type. After determining the pre-specified clusters, model aerosol types are produced for the entire vertically resolved GEOS-Chem nested domain over the United States and the model chemical component distributions relating to each type are recorded. Resulting aerosol types are Dust/Dusty Mix, Maritime, Smoke, Urban and Fresh Smoke (separated into 'dark' and 'light' by a threshold of the organic to black carbon ratio). Model-calculated DM not belonging to a specific type (i.e. not meeting a threshold probability) is termed an outlier and those DM values that can belong to multiple types (i.e. showing weak probability of belonging to a specific cluster) are termed as Overlap. MODIS active fires are overlaid on the model domain to qualitatively evaluate the model-predicted Smoke aerosol types.

Aerosol Types↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterization of Individual Aerosol Particles Associated with Clouds (CRYSTAL-FACE)

The aim of our research was to obtain data on the chemical and physical properties of individual aerosol particles from near the bottoms and tops of the deep convective systems that lead to the generation of tropical cirrus clouds and to provide insights into the particles that serve as CCN or IN. We used analytical transmission electron microscopy (ATEM), including energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (EDS) and electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS), and field-emission electron microscopy (FESEM) to compare the compositions, concentrations, size distributions, shapes, surface coatings, and degrees of aggregation of individual particles from cloud bases and the anvils near the tropopause. Aggregates of sea salt and mineral dust, ammonium sulfate, and soot particles are abundant in in-cloud samples. Cirrus samples contain many H2SO4 droplets, but acidic sulfate particles are rare at the cloud bases. H2SO4 probably formed at higher altitudes through oxidation of SO2 in cloud droplets. The relatively high extent of ammoniation in the upper troposphere in-cloud samples appears to have resulted from vertical transport by strong convection. The morphology of H2SO4 droplets indicates that they had been at least yartiy ammoniated at the time of collection. They are internally mixed with organic materials, metal sulfates, and solid particles of various compositions. Ammoniation and internal mixing of result in freezing at higher temperature than in pure H2SO4 aerosols. K- and S-bearing organic particles and Si-Al-rich particles are common throughout. Sea salt and mineral dust were incorporated into the convective systems from the cloud bases and worked as ice nuclei while being vertically transported. The nonsulfate particles originated from the lower troposphere and were transported to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.

Buseck, Peter R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis - Volume 32

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

AOD↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Comparison of Model- and Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth and Reflectivity

The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)- measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite. The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between -0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between -0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over -0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between -3.9 and 0.7 W m(exp -2) depending on latitude and is -1.7 W m (exp -2) on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide (DMS)-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units. The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m(exp -2). The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10 and 30 deg S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30 deg N and near 50 deg S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.

Penner, Joyce E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global model–measurement evaluation of particle light scattering coefficients at elevated relative humidity

The uptake of water by atmospheric aerosols has a pronounced effect on particle light scattering properties, which in turn are strongly dependent on the ambient relative humidity (RH). Earth system models need to account for the aerosol water uptake and its influence on light scattering in order to properly capture the overall radiative effects of aerosols. Here we present a comprehensive model–measurement evaluation of the particle light scattering enhancement factor f(RH), defined as the particle light scattering coefficient at elevated RH (here set to 85 %) divided by its dry value. The comparison uses simulations from 10 Earth system models and a global dataset of surface-based in situ measurements. In general, we find a large diversity in the magnitude of predicted f(RH) amongst the different models, which can not be explained by the site types. Based on our evaluation of sea salt scattering enhancement and simulated organic mass fraction, there is a strong indication that differences in the model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are driving at least some of the observed diversity in simulated f(RH). Additionally, a key point is that defining dry conditions is difficult from an observational point of view and, depending on the aerosol, may influence the measured f(RH). The definition of dry also impacts our model evaluation, because several models exhibit significant water uptake between RH = 0 % and 40 %. The multisite average ratio between model outputs and measurements is 1.64 when RH = 0 % is assumed as the model dry RH and 1.16 when RH = 40 % is the model dry RH value. The overestimation by the models is believed to originate from the hygroscopicity parameterizations at the lower RH range which may not implement all phenomena taking place (i.e., not fully dried particles and hysteresis effects). This will be particularly relevant when a location is dominated by a deliquescent aerosol such as sea salt. Our results emphasize the need to consider the measurement conditions in such comparisons and recognize that measurements referred to as dry may not be dry in model terms. Recommendations for future model–measurement evaluation and model improvements are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Impacts of Gas-Phase Chemistry-Aerosol Interactions on Direct Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols and Ozone

We present here a first global modeling study on the influence of gas-phase chemistry/aerosol interactions on estimates of anthropogenic forcing by tropospheric O3 and aerosols. Concentrations of gas-phase species and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, secondary organic carbon, sea salt, and mineral dust aerosols in the preindustrial, present-day, and year 2100 (IPCC SRES A2) atmospheres are simulated online in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model II' (GISS GCM II'). With fully coupled chemistry and aerosols, the preindustrial, presentday, and year 2100 global burdens of tropospheric ozone are predicted to be 190, 319, and 519 Tg, respectively. The burdens of sulfate, nitrate, black carbon, and organic carbon are predicted respectively to be 0.32. 0.18, 0.01, 0.33 Tg in preindustrial time, 1.40, 0.48, 0.23, 1.60 Tg in presentday, and 1.37, 1.97, 0.54, 3.31 Tg in year 2100. Anthropogenic O3 is predicted to have a globally and annually averaged present-day forcing of +0.22 W m(sup -2) and year 2100 forcing of +0.57 W m(sup -2) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Net anthropogenic TOA forcing by internally mixed sulfate, nitrate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosols is estimated to be virtually zero in the present-day and +0.34 W m(sup -2) in year 2100, whereas it is predicted to be -0.39 W m(sup -2) in present-day and -0.61 W m(sup -2) in year 2100 if the aerosols are externally mixed. Heterogeneous reactions are shown to be important in affecting anthropogenic forcing. When reactions of N2O5, NO3, NO2, and HO2 on aerosols are accounted for, TOA anthropogenic O3 forcing is less by 20-45% in present-day and by 20-32% in year 2100 at mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, as compared with values predicted in the absence of heterogeneous gas aerosol reactions. Mineral dust uptake of HNO3 and O3 is shown to have practically no influence on anthropogenic O3 forcing. Heterogeneous reactions of N2Os, NO3, NO2, and HO2 are predicted to have noticeable impacts on anthropogenic aerosol forcing over industrialized areas, leading to 0-2 W m(sup -2) more anthropogenic aerosol cooling in present-day and 2-8 W m(sup -2) more cooling in year 2100 in these areas as compared with forcings calculated in the absence of heterogeneous reactions. Sea salt uptake of SO2 reduces the magnitude of TOA aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) over the oceans around 60 N in the present-day and year 2100 scenarios. Near dust sources, mineral dust uptake of SO2 and HNO3 leads to less anthropogenic aerosol cooling by 0.5-1 W m(sup -2) in the present day and 1-2 W m(sup -2) in year 2100.

Liao, Hong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Dust and Corrosion Witness Samples Recovered from SNF Dry Storage Systems, Maine Yankee, 2023

This report documents the results of a long-term (5.79 year) exposure of 4-point bend corrosion test samples in the inlet and outlet vents of four spent nuclear fuel dry storage systems at the Maine Yankee Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation. The goal of the test was to evaluate the corrosiveness of salt aerosols in a realistic near-marine environment, providing a data set for improved understanding of stress corrosion cracking of spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters. Examination of the samples after extraction showed minor corrosion was present, mostly on rough-ground surfaces. However, dye penetrant testing showed that no SCC cracks were present. Dust collected on coupons co-located with the corrosion specimens was analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and leached to determine the soluble salts present. The dust was mostly organic material (pollen and stellate trichomes), with lesser detrital mineral grains. Salts present were a mix of sea-salts and continental salts, with chloride dominating the anions, but significant amounts of nitrate were also present. Both corrosion samples and dust samples showed evidence of wetting, indicating entry of water into the vents. The results of this field test suggest that the environment at Maine Yankee is not highly aggressive, although extrapolation from the periodically wetted vent samples to the hot, dry, canister surface may be difficult. No stress corrosion cracks were observed, but minor corrosion was present despite high nitrate concentrations in the salts. These observations may help address the ongoing question of the importance of nitrate in suppressing corrosion and SCC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1980

Gas and aerosol fluxes

The development of remote sensing techniques to address the global need for accurate distribution and flux determinations of both man made and natural materials which affect the chemical composition of the atmosphere, the heat budget of the Earth, and the depletion, of stratospheric ozone is considered. Specifically, trace gas fluxes, sea salt aerosol production, and the effect of sea surface microlayer on gas and aerosol fluxes are examined. Volatile sulfur, carbon, nitrogen, and halocarbon compounds are discussed including a statement of the problem associated with each compound or group of compounds, a brief summary of current understanding, and suggestions for needed research.

Martens, C. S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of environmental phenomena on maximum pit size predictions in marine environments

Maximum pit sizes were predicted for dilute and concentrated NaCl and MgCl 2 solutions as well as sea-salt brine solutions corresponding to 40% relative humidity (RH) (MgCl 2 -rich) and 76% RH (NaCl-rich) at 25 °C. A quantitative method was developed to capture the effects of various cathode evolution phenomena including precipitation and dehydration reactions. Additionally, the sensitivity of the model to input parameters was explored. Despite one's intuition, the highest chloride concentration (roughly 10.3 M Cl – ) did not produce the largest predicted pit size as the ohmic drop was more severe in concentrated MgCl 2 solutions. Therefore, the largest predicted pits were calculated for saturated NaCl (roughly 5 M Cl – ). Next, it was determined that pit size predictions are most sensitive to model input parameters for concentrated brines. However, when the effects of cathodic reactions on brine chemistry are considered, the sensitivity to input parameters is decreased. Although there was not one main input parameter that influenced pit size predictions, two main categories were identified. Under similar chloride concentrations (similar RH), the water layer thickness (WL), and pit stability product, (i · x) sf , are the most influential factors. When varying chloride concentrations (RH), changes in WL, the brine specific cathodic kinetics on the external surface (captured in the equivalent current density (i eq )), and conductivity (k o ) are the most influential parameters. Finally, it was noted that dehydration reactions coupled with precipitation in the cathode will have the largest effect on predicted pit size, and cause the most significant inhibition of corrosion damage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗
DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Salt Tolerance and Polyphyly in the Cyanobacterium Chroococcidiopsis (Pleurocapsales)1

Chroococcidiopsis Geitler (Geitler 1933) is a genus of cyanobacteria containing desiccation and radiation resistant species. Members of the genus live in habitats ranging from hot and cold deserts to fresh and saltwater environments. Morphology and cell division pattern have historically been used to define the genus. To better understand the genetic and phenotypic diversity of the genus, 15 species were selected that had been previously isolated from different locations, including salt and freshwater environments. Four markers were sequenced from these 15 species, the 16S rRNA, rbcL, desC1 and gltX genes. Phylogenetic trees were generated which identified two distinct clades, a salt-tolerant clade and a freshwater clade. This study demonstrates that the genus is polyphyletic based on saltwater and freshwater phenotypes. To understand the resistance to salt in more details, species were grown on a range of sea salt concentrations which demonstrated that the freshwater species were salt-intolerant whilst the saltwater species required salt for growth. This study shows an increased resolution of the phylogeny of Chroococcidiopsis and provides further evidence that the genus is polyphyletic and should be reclassified to improve clarity in the literature.

Genus↗
NASA NTRS2012

Size Resolved Measurements of Springtime Aerosol Particles over the Northern South China Sea

Large sources of aerosol particles and their precursors are ubiquitous in East Asia. Such sources are known to impact the South China Sea (henceforth SCS), a sometimes heavily polluted region that has been suggested as particularly vulnerable to climate change. To help elucidate springtime aerosol transport into the SCS, an intensive study was performed on the remote Dongsha (aka Pratas) Islands Atoll in spring 2010. As part of this deployment, a Davis Rotating-drum Uniform size-cut Monitor (DRUM) cascade impactor was deployed to collect size-resolved aerosol samples at the surface that were analyzed by X-ray fluorescence for concentrations of selected elements. HYSPLIT backtrajectories indicated that the transport of aerosol observed at the surface at Dongsha was occurring primarily from regions generally to the north and east. This observation was consistent with the apparent persistence of pollution and dust aerosol, along with sea salt, in the ground-based dataset. In contrast to the sea-level observations, modeled aerosol transport suggested that the westerly flow aloft (w700 hPa) transported smoke-laden air toward the site from regions from the south and west. Measured aerosol optical depth at the site was highest during time periods of modeled heavy smoke loadings aloft. These periods did not coincide with elevated aerosol concentrations at the surface, although the model suggested sporadic mixing of this free-tropospheric aerosol to the surface over the SCS. A biomass burning signature was not clearly identified in the surface aerosol composition data, consistent with this aerosol type remaining primarily aloft and not mixing strongly to the surface during the study. Significant vertical wind shear in the region also supports the idea that different source regions lead to varying aerosol impacts in different vertical layers, and suggests the potential for considerable vertical inhomogeneity in the SCS aerosol environment.

South China Sea↗